X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Batting Order: Using Sabermetrics for 2024 Fantasy Baseball

Corbin Carroll - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

You may be wondering why there aren't any advanced stats aimed at predicting a player's counting stats like runs and RBI. The answer is simple: modern sabermetrics reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team-dependent stats and are unhelpful in ascertaining a given player's real value.

That might work for statheads, but fantasy managers frequently see 40% or more of a player's value tied to his RBI and run totals. We have to care about them. Drafting hitters from strong offenses can help pad the totals, but as you'll see, an even bigger advantage can be found by looking at a player's slot in the batting order.

Don't believe it? Here is a closer look at how to analyze a batter's lineup slot for fantasy purposes.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:

 

Lineup Slot & Counting Stats

In the table below, each batting order slot's plate appearances, runs, and RBI are presented from the 2023 season. The final number is simply R + RBI, an approximate measure of that slot's overall value to a fantasy team.

Slot PA R RBI RBI+R
1st 22,540 3,147 2,337 5,484
2nd 22,032 2,981 2,598 5,579
3rd 21,511 2,712 2,818 5,530
4th 20,999 2,615 2,966 5,581
5th 20,488 2,415 2,511 4,926
6th 19,989 2,234 2,345 4,579
7th 19,417 2,097 2,125 4,222
8th 18,859 2,120 1,951 4,071
9th 18,269 2,111 1,861 3,972

Each batting order slot loses around 500 PA compared to the slot before it. If we divide this total by the 30 current MLB clubs, we get a difference of around 17 PA between consecutive hitters on one team. That may seem insignificant, but it compounds. For example, there is an average of 34 PA separating a team's leadoff man from the three-hitter. Counting stats like RBI require an opportunity to accumulate, and hitters earlier in the batting order have more opportunities.

RBI are highest from the cleanup spot and trend downward in both directions. Leadoff hitters only get more RBI than the seventh, eighth, and ninth spots despite the largest PA total. This is because they never have runners on base for their first PA and need to rely on the weaker eighth and ninth hitters to get on in front of them after that.

Runs peak at the leadoff slot and generally decrease from there. This decrease is not linear, as only 97 runs separate third and fourth while 200 separate fourth and fifth. For this reason, fantasy managers want to stick to the early batting order slots where teams cluster their best hitters. The eighth and ninth slots outperformed the seventh slot in runs last year, but all three pale in comparison to earlier slots.

Finally, the R+RBI column refutes the idea that a team's heart of the order is 3-4-5. It's actually 2-3-4, the only lineup slots to eclipse 5,500 combined R+RBI. The first slot is great for runs scored, and the fifth spot offers a respectable 4,926 R+RBI. After that, production falls off a cliff even among strong offenses. This means that a player in the middle of a weaker offense is likely to outproduce a player on the periphery of a stronger one.

Platoons, injuries, and lineup shuffling can change these numbers, but in general, the earlier the slot, the better for fantasy purposes.

 

The Practical Impact of Batting Order

Most would agree that Corbin Carroll had an extremely successful 2023 season for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He earned NL Rookie of the Year honors with a triple slash line of .285/.362/.506 with 25 HR, but his 76 RBI were relatively low for a strong hitter with pop.

Was he a terrible clutch hitter? Nope, his .280 average with runners in scoring position was identical to his average with the bases empty. Furthermore, Carroll came up huge in several big spots during Arizona's run to the World Series. He didn't wilt under the pressure.

Was Arizona a poor offensive team? While it seemed that way at times during the postseason, the team finished tied with Toronto with 746 runs for 14th of the 30 MLB clubs in scoring. That's a solidly major-league-average offense that shouldn't have adversely affected Carroll's RBI totals.

Indeed, the answer lies in Carroll's batting order slot. He logged 142 PAs as the team's leadoff hitter and another 127 batting fifth or lower, forcing him to rely on the club's less productive hitters to set up RBI opportunities for him. Carroll is projected to hit leadoff in 2024, so his RBI will likely lag behind what we might expect again in 2024.

 

Conclusion

To conclude, counting stat production depends on opportunity and team support. Players that bat early in the order tend to get more of both, though leadoff men give up RBI potential for increased runs scored. If you want to learn more about applying sabermetrics within a fantasy context, stay tuned!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!






POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NFL7 mins ago

Terrel Bernard Gets Four-Year Extension
Cam Collier11 mins ago

Dealing With Thumb Injury
Bubba Chandler21 mins ago

Assigned To Minor-League Camp
Bryan Woo1 hour ago

Tallies Six Strikeouts On Thursday
Bo Naylor1 hour ago

Goes Deep Twice On Thursday
Robert Garcia1 hour ago

Tosses Shutout Frame In Spring Debut
Marcus Stroman2 hours ago

Expected To Start Season In Rotation
Nick Loftin2 hours ago

Exits On Thursday With Illness
Sam Long2 hours ago

Throws Bullpen On Thursday
Jake Guentzel2 hours ago

Nets Hat Trick On Thursday
Cale Makar2 hours ago

Has Career-Game On Thursday
Jordan Greenway2 hours ago

Exits Early On Thursday
Victor Hedman2 hours ago

Exits Thursday's Contest Early
Jake Walman3 hours ago

Oilers Acquire Jake Walman
Brock Nelson3 hours ago

Traded To Colorado
Lawrence Butler9 hours ago

Athletics, Lawrence Butler Agree To A Seven-Year, $65.5 Million Extension
Ethan Salas10 hours ago

Padres Reassign Ethan Salas, Leodalis De Vries To Minor League Camp
José Devers10 hours ago

Braves Reassign Jose Devers To Minor-League Camp
Agustin Ramirez10 hours ago

Drills First Home Run Of The Spring
Robert Hassell III11 hours ago

A Threat To Jacob Young?
Carson Whisenhunt11 hours ago

Giants Reassign Carson Whisenhunt To Minor-League Camp
Dairon Blanco11 hours ago

Should See Game Action Soon
Noah Schultz11 hours ago

Chicago Reassigns Noah Schultz, Hagen Smith To Minor-League Camp
Kyle Wright11 hours ago

To Throw A Bullpen On Saturday
Jakob Poeltl11 hours ago

Inactive On Friday
Shohei Ohtani11 hours ago

Dodgers Giving Shohei Ohtani A "Respite" As He Ramps Up As A Pitcher
RJ Barrett11 hours ago

To Be Rested On Friday
Malik Monk11 hours ago

To Remain Out On Friday
Jacksonville Jaguars11 hours ago

Jaguars Release Ronald Darby
Cason Wallace11 hours ago

Won't Play Against Trail Blazers
Luguentz Dort11 hours ago

Unavailable Friday
Chet Holmgren12 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Isaiah Hartenstein12 hours ago

To Sit Out Friday's Game
Devin Duvernay12 hours ago

Jaguars Release Devin Duvernay
Jalen Williams12 hours ago

Will Not Play On Friday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander12 hours ago

Resting On Friday
Precious Achiuwa12 hours ago

Out On Thursday
Mitchell Robinson12 hours ago

Active Against Lakers
OG Anunoby12 hours ago

Ready To Take On Lakers
Jordan Mason12 hours ago

Drawing Trade Interest
Alec Burks12 hours ago

Questionable For Friday Due To Back Issue
Jaime Jaquez Jr.12 hours ago

Questionable To Play On Friday
Kel'el Ware12 hours ago

Not Ready To Return Against Minnesota
Brandon Aiyuk12 hours ago

49ers Unlikely To Trade Brandon Aiyuk?
Andrew Wiggins12 hours ago

Iffy For Friday's Game
Sam Darnold13 hours ago

Vikings Continue To Want Sam Darnold Back
Tyler Herro13 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Friday
DK Metcalf13 hours ago

Seahawks Talking To A "Ton Of Teams" About DK Metcalf
Austin Reaves13 hours ago

Good To Go Thursday
Ben Simmons13 hours ago

Remains Out On Friday
Luka Dončić13 hours ago

Luka Doncic Upgraded To Available Thursday
Washington Commanders13 hours ago

Commanders Re-Sign Bobby Wagner
Derrick Jones Jr.13 hours ago

Returning On Friday
Oscar Colás14 hours ago

Oscar Colas Exits On Thursday With Wrist Injury
Sean Reid-Foley14 hours ago

Clears Waivers
Carlos Estévez14 hours ago

Carlos Estevez Throws "Best" Bullpen Session
Evan Engram15 hours ago

Jaguars Release Evan Engram
Dougie Hamilton16 hours ago

Remains Under Evaluation
Mattias Ekholm16 hours ago

John Klingberg Out Against Canadiens
Brandon Tanev16 hours ago

Will Not Play On Thursday
Atlanta Falcons16 hours ago

Nate Landman Won't Receive Tender Offer From Falcons
Colton Parayko16 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Regular Season
Cincinnati Bengals16 hours ago

Bengals Grant Trey Hendrickson Permission To Seek A Trade
Nico Sturm16 hours ago

Picked Up By Panthers
Christian Kirk17 hours ago

Texans Acquiring Christian Kirk From The Jaguars
Reilly Smith17 hours ago

Returns To Vegas
Seattle Seahawks18 hours ago

Seahawks Re-Sign Josh Jobe
Atlanta Falcons19 hours ago

Cornerback Dee Alford Will Hit The Open Market
Minnesota Vikings19 hours ago

Theo Jackson Agrees To Two-Year Extension With Vikings
Tennessee Titans19 hours ago

Mike McCoy Joins Titans Coaching Staff
Buffalo Bills19 hours ago

Mitch Morse Announces Retirement After 10 Seasons
Durham Smythe19 hours ago

Bears Officially Sign Durham Smythe
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen20 hours ago

Starting on Thursday
Mackenzie Blackwood20 hours ago

Facing Former Team On Thursday
Pittsburgh Steelers20 hours ago

Steelers, Cole Holcomb Agree To Revised Contract
Josh Manson20 hours ago

Returning On Thursday
Zane Gonzalez20 hours ago

Commanders Re-Sign Zane Gonzalez
Jason Zucker20 hours ago

Not Playing On Thursday
Michael Bunting20 hours ago

Not Expected To Play This Weekend
Brian Dumoulin21 hours ago

Traded To New Jersey
Tutu Atwell22 hours ago

Back With Rams On One-Year Deal
Vincent Desharnais1 day ago

Shipped To San Jose
Adin Hill1 day ago

Extends Winning Streak To Four Games
Luke Schenn1 day ago

Thomas Novak, Luke Schenn Traded To Pittsburgh
Sahith Theegala2 days ago

Looking To Keep Spark From Last Event Alive At Bay Hill
Robert MacIntyre2 days ago

An Interesting Play At Arnold Palmer Invitational
Max Homa2 days ago

Hoping His Course History At Bay Hill Can Help Turn Season Around
Tommy Fleetwood2 days ago

Looking To Get Back Into Good Graces At Bay Hill
Michael Kim2 days ago

One Of The Hottest Players In Golf Heading To Bay Hill
Xander Schauffele2 days ago

Making Long-Awaited Start Since Rib Injury At Bay Hill
Sepp Straka2 days ago

Needs Accuracy At Arnold Palmer Invitational
Collin Morikawa2 days ago

Looking For Better Form On And Around The Greens At Bay Hill
Justin Rose2 days ago

May Be Worth Avoiding This Week
Maverick McNealy2 days ago

Tries To Go One Step Further At Bay Hill
Shane Lowry2 days ago

Has Potential To Contend At Bay Hill
PGA2 days ago

Sungjae Im Trying To Snap Out Of Golfing Funk
Jacob Bridgeman2 days ago

Looking To Build Off Momentum At Arnold Palmer Invitational
Joe Highsmith2 days ago

Steps Up After Cognizant Classic Win
Max Greyserman2 days ago

Be Wary Of Max Greyserman At Bay Hill
Davis Thompson2 days ago

Very Iffy For Arnold Palmer Invitational
Tony Finau2 days ago

And Bay Hill Could Be A Battle
Cam Davis2 days ago

A Question Mark Heading To Arnold Palmer
Sam Burns2 days ago

Could Stick Around At Arnold Palmer
J.J. Spaun2 days ago

Could See Success At Bay Hill
PGA2 days ago

Byeong Hun An Seeks Answers And May Not Find Any
MMA4 days ago

Asu Almbayev Gets TKO'd At UFC Vegas 103
Manel Kape4 days ago

Gets TKO Win At UFC Vegas 103
Julian Marquez4 days ago

Loses Fourth Fight In A Row
Kyle Busch4 days ago

Falls Short Of Victory At COTA While Finishing Fifth
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Has A Day To Forget At COTA On Sunday
Cody Brundage4 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Continues His Top-10 Streak At COTA With Third-Place Finish
NASCAR4 days ago

Bubba Wallace Has An Eventful Day At COTA That Ends In 20th-Place Finish
Esteban Ribovics4 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Vegas 103
Noah Gragson4 days ago

Scores His First Career Road Course Top-10 Finish At COTA
Nasrat Haqparast4 days ago

Extends Win Streak At UFC Vegas 103
William Gomis4 days ago

Takes Split-Decision Loss
Hyder Amil4 days ago

Remains Undefeated
Sam Patterson4 days ago

Extends Win Streak To Three
Danny Barlow4 days ago

Suffers First Career Loss At UFC Vegas 103
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Wins At COTA, Ready To Keep Adding To It
Chris Buescher4 days ago

Finishes Seventh At COTA, Sees Room For Improvement
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Nabs First Top-10 Finish Of Season After Bumpy COTA Race
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Recovers From Lap 1 Spinout To Finish Fourth
William Byron4 days ago

In Battle Between Last Two Race Winners, William Byron Comes Up Short
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Dominates First Two Stages But Fades In Third Stage
AJ Allmendinger4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Runs Well At Austin Until Late-Race Collapse
Alex Bowman4 days ago

Recovers From COTA Penalty To Finish Ninth
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Wins Pole At COTA, Looking To Become First Repeat Winner
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Will Be A Top Threat For The Win At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen5 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen the Favorite to Win at COTA
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Will Be A Fantastic DFS Play For COTA Lineups
AJ Allmendinger5 days ago

Struggling At COTA Despite Strong Practice Speeds
Austin Cindric5 days ago

Is One Of The Top DFS Recommendations For COTA Lineups
Connor Zilisch5 days ago

Making Cup Series Debut This Weekend
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF