X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Batted Ball Distribution: Using Sabermetrics for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

Tim Anderson - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Rick Lucks breaks down how to use batted ball distribution to project a hitter's fantasy baseball performance as his series to make advanced stats more accessible to fantasy managers continues.

Fly balls can turn into home runs. Ground balls never do. It would seem as though fantasy baseball owners want their batters to hit nothing but flies, yet this is not always the case.

Why would this be? The answer, of course, comes down to batted ball distribution and how batters make contact. The league average batted ball distribution in 2022 was 19.9% line drives, 42.9% ground balls, and 37.2% fly balls. Most individual players vary from this standard breakdown, providing insight into their fantasy viability.

The best place to find a hitter's batted ball distribution is by searching them on FanGraphs and scrolling to the fifth chart, "Batted Ball." It's the same chart we used to look at HR/FB in our previous article. Now that you know where to find this information, let's look at how to interpret it.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Value of Line Drives

Let's first look at how all major leaguers fared on each of the major types of batted ball in 2022. Grounders generated a BABIP of .235. Flies were not as productive, posting a .118 figure. This makes sense, as pop-ups seldom fall in, cans of corn to the outfield are only slightly better, and homers are considered out of play and do not count toward BABIP. Line drives turned into base hits far more frequently than either of the others, posting a .690 BABIP. The difference between liners and anything else is startling. Batters want line drives.

Tim Anderson's 2022 campaign provides a good illustration of what a few extra liners can do. His .301/.339/.395 triple-slash line looks like a normal Tim Anderson season, but how he got there was completely different. Anderson's career LD% is 21.5, a smidge above league average. However, last year he posted a 24.2 LD% that crushed the league average. Anderson's overall BABIP fell to .347, his lowest mark since 2018, despite the elevated LD%, though.

LD% generally isn't a predictive stat, meaning that it can fluctuate widely without indicating that a player has found a new level. Anderson has a history of delivering great batting averages but historically hasn't relied on elevated LD% marks to do it. As such, Anderson may not deliver the average fantasy managers expect if his LD% spike proves to be a fluke and he doesn't recover what used to make his BABIP so special.

This is not to suggest that no one consistently posts above-average LD% rates. For example, AL batting champion Luis Arraez has a career of .336 BABIP driven largely by his career LD% of 27. With four seasons of well-above-average LD% rates, it would be foolish to suggest that Arraez is just lucky. Therefore, we give credit to Arraez for being a plus-BABIP guy due to an LD% skill, just like we give Trea Turner BABIP credit for his blinding speed. This distinction has to be earned over numerous full seasons, however. Most LD% surges are more fluky Tim Anderson than sustainable Luis Arraez.

 

Which Is Better: Ground Balls or Fly Balls?

Unlike LD%, both GB% and FB% are stickier--a player with an elevated rate in one is likely to repeat a similar rate moving forward. By BABIP alone, grounders are better. However, this changes significantly if the slugging percentage is considered. In 2022, grounders offered a slugging percentage of .255, only slightly higher than the .235 BABIP they posted. Flies had a .646 slugging percentage, easily offsetting the lower BABIP for most fantasy players. Sluggers like Aaron Judge who lift the ball at an exceptional rate have a built-in slugging advantage because of their batted ball profiles.

The ideal batted ball mix, therefore, varies with the player. Elite speedsters want more grounders than flies as they don't have the oomph to hit a lot of homers regardless. One-dimensional sluggers want fly balls, especially since shifts and a lack of speed often prevent them from realizing the larger BABIPs associated with grounders anyway. Fantasy managers usually prefer players with power and speed potential to have a higher FB%, as the extra power is more beneficial than a few extra times on base.

Incidentally, line drives averaged a ridiculous .895 slugging percentage to go with their .690 BABIP in 2022, so they are still the batted ball of choice.

 

Conclusion

To conclude, line drives are by far the most productive result for hitters. BABIP's luck-driven fluctuations are frequently driven by LD%, a largely random stat. GB% and FB% are more predictive, and which one is favored depends on the hitter in question. Grounders offer a higher BABIP, but almost zero power. Flies result in base hits less often, but generate much more power when they do.

The intricacies of BABIP could be a never-ending topic, but the information provided so far is generally enough for fantasy purposes. Stay tuned to learn about some other metrics that can help you predict a player's future performance.

More Sabermetrics & Statcast for Fantasy Baseball




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Aaron Nola

Pitches Seven Strong Innings
Tylor Megill

Strikes Out Nine In No-Decision
Hunter Brown

Strikes Out Nine In Win
Agustín Ramírez

Agustin Ramirez Homers Twice
Andy Pages

Homers In Four-Hit Game
Ketel Marte

Expected To Return Next Weekend
Joe Ryan

Posts Stellar Outing
Noelvi Marte

Has Big Game On Sunday
Jaylen Brown

Available For Game 4
Nick Lodolo

Throws Seven Scoreless Innings
Brandon Marsh

Removed Early During Rehab Game
Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suarez Looks Sharp In Rehab Start
Josh Jung

Makes Early Exit On Sunday
Tyler Glasnow

Removed Early On Sunday
Darius Garland

Questionable For Game 4
Jaden Ivey

Making Progress
Frederik Andersen

Exits Game 4 With Injury
Jake Neighbours

Shines On Sunday With Three Points
Jordan Binnington

Makes 30 Saves In Game 4 Victory
Patrik Laine

Not Expected To Play In Game 4
Sam Montembeault

Labeled Day-To-Day
Jarren Duran

Collects Four Hits On Sunday
Tarik Skubal

Racks Up 11 Strikeouts
Aliaksei Protas

Considered A Game-Time Decision Sunday
Logan Thompson

A Game-Time Call Sunday
Clayton Kershaw

To Make Two Rehab Starts This Week
Jackson Merrill

Takes Batting Practice On Sunday
Sean Murphy

Taking A Seat On Sunday
Will Smith

Resting On Sunday
Max Brosmer

Minnesota Adds Insurance With Max Brosmer

Donovan Edwards Inks Deal With Jets
Tyler Fitzgerald

To Miss Second Straight Game
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

No Longer Facing One-Game Suspension

Nick Nash Signs With The Falcons
Cam Ward

Xavier Restrepo Reunites With Cam Ward In Tennessee
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
William Nylander

Posts Two Assists In Losing Effort
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
Kyle Busch

Nearly Always Leads at Talladega, but Rarely Leads Much
Tyler Reddick

Drafting Track Record Worse Than It Looks
Daniel Suarez

Likely Motivated at Talladega Since Trackhouse Cars Likely Too Slow for Him to Win On Regular Tracks
Ryan Preece

Qualifies Fourth Due to Ford Dominance, but Don't Expect Him to Finish There
Justin Haley

Qualifies 37th in First Race After Rodney Childers's Departure
Chase Briscoe

Post-Daytona 500 Penalty Results in Much Worse Talladega Qualifying for Chase Briscoe
Alex Bowman

Starting Too Well for Place Differential Points, but Not Well Enough for Leader Points
Chris Buescher

Qualifies Sixth Thanks to Ford Dominance, but Probably Won't Lead Enough to Be Valuable in DFS
Ty Gibbs

Despite Current Momentum, Ty Gibbs Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Jake Sanderson

Keeps Senators Alive With Overtime Winner
Mackenzie Blackwood

Records First Postseason Shutout
Gabriel Landeskog

Scores First Goal In Nearly Three Years
Ivan Barbashev

Gives Vegas Vital Win
Nikita Kucherov

Records Three Assists In Game 3 Win
Troy Stecher

Cleared For Sunday
Jimmy Butler III

Ruled Out On Saturday
Isaiah Stewart

Questionable For Sunday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 4
Jrue Holiday

Won't Play On Sunday
Quinn Ewers

Dolphins Select Quinn Ewers In Seventh Round
Brenden Dillon

Out On Sunday
Mitchell Robinson

Questionable For Game 4 Versus Detroit
Luke Hughes

To Remain Out On Sunday
Michael Porter Jr.

Available On Saturday Night
Aliaksei Protas

Practices Fully On Saturday
Russell Westbrook

Won't Suit Up For Game 4
Gabriel Vilardi

A Game-Time Decision For Sunday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back A Game-Time Call On Saturday
Ross Colton

Unavailable Saturday
Miro Heiskanen

Remains Out Saturday
Riley Leonard

Drafted By Colts Saturday
Will Howard

Steelers Select Will Howard In Sixth Round Of NFL Draft
Kyle McCord

Eagles Add Kyle McCord To Quarterback Room
Ollie Gordon II

Miami Adds Ollie Gordon II To Backfield
Oronde Gadsden II

Chargers Add KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Oronde Gadsden II To Offense
DJ Giddens

Colts Add DJ Giddens To Backfield
Jaydon Blue

Dallas Cowboys Draft Jaydon Blue In Fifth Round
Jordan Watkins

49ers Add Jordan Watkins To Offense
Shedeur Sanders

Browns Trade Up To Select Shedeur Sanders In The Fifth Round
Sam Howell

Seahawks Trade Sam Howell To Vikings
Elic Ayomanor

Titans Continue To Address Offense, Select Elic Ayomanor
Jalen Royals

Chiefs Bolster Receiver Room With Jalen Royals
Jaylin Lane

Commanders Add Jaylin Lane To Wide Receiver Room
Dylan Sampson

Browns Select Dylan Sampson With 126th Pick
Gunnar Helm

Titans Use Fourth-Round Pick On Gunnar Helm
Jarquez Hunter

Rams Select Jarquez Hunter In Fourth Round
Darius Garland

Won't Suit Up For Game 3
Darius Garland

Unavailable For Pregame Warmup
Jrue Holiday

Classified As "Day-To-Day"
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF