RADIO
The NASCAR Cup Series is in Bristol on Friday night for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. This is going to be a fascinating race to watch because the last time we were at Bristol, the tire compounds that Goodyear brought produced some weird, weird racing. Just five drivers finished on the lead lap and just seven drivers were one lap down.
This is also the final race of this playoff round. Right now, Austin Cindric and Daniel Suarez are in position to surprisingly advance while Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, and Martin Truex Jr. are all below the cut line. How will Bristol change the playoff picture?
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race on DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 9/21/2024 at 7:33 p.m. EDT. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on X at @juscarts.
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Denny Hamlin
Starts Eighth - DK: $11.0K, FD: $14.0K
We don't really know if the tire falloff will look like it did back in the spring or not. I'd lean toward no, considering practice was relatively normal and racing at night should help with some of that wear.
Some @dennyhamlin notes today:
• No charter update. "We plan on racing next year no matter what."
• @BubbaWallace extension was a no brainer, expectations are for them to finish top 10 in points annually
• Will be on offense from Lap 1
• Lulu update: "this is her last shot"— Davey Segal (@DaveyCenter) September 20, 2024
But even if the conditions that helped Denny Hamlin dominate in March don't wind up replicated on Saturday night, Hamlin should still be viewed as a favorite.
That's because Hamlin also dominated this night race in 2023, leading 142 laps on his way to the win. He can win here when things are normal. He can win when things get weird. He's recorded four wins here in Cup and 18 top 10s.
Chris Buescher
Starts 17th - DK: $9.8K, FD: $11.0K
The RFK cars couldn't find much speed in practice. Really, none of the Fords could as Chase Briscoe was the only Ford to advance to the 10-car final round of qualifying.
I would bet that over the course of 500 laps at Bristol on Saturday night, some of the Fords are going to figure out how to get the car running right. And I'd be willing to bet on Chris Buescher being one that rises toward the top.
Buescher, who won last week at Watkins Glen, won this race in 2022, leading 169 of 500 laps. He followed that up with a fourth in the 2023 night race and then a seventh here earlier this year.
Notably, Buescher started 20th or worse in all three of those races. He's always struggled to qualify here, starting 19th or worse in 10 consecutive Bristol races. He's finished with positive place differential in eight of those races.
Joey Logano
Starts 20th - DK: $9.3K, FD: $8.5K
At some point, Joey Logano has to get off the snide here. He has 10 top 10s in 28 starts at Bristol with two wins, but he comes into Saturday's race on a cold streak at the half-mile, high-banked oval.
In the 2019 spring race, Logano finished third. Since then, he's gone seven Bristol pavement starts in a row without a top 10. Logano led five laps earlier this season but finished just 22nd.
If he started in the top 10, this would scare me off, but Logano firing off from 20th gives him enough place differential upside to make him a solid DFS option.
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Josh Berry
Starts 25th - DK: $8.2K, FD: $7.5K
There are some really decent place differential opportunities with Josh Berry this weekend. In his lone Cup Series start here, Berry qualified second and led 25 laps. He wasn't able to stay up front all race long, but he came away with a solid 12th-place finish.
Josh Berry's save @ Bristol, 2024. pic.twitter.com/hqznpQqBTT
— Andrew (@Basso488) September 20, 2024
Berry has had some struggles at Bristol in the lower series races, with just on top 10 in three Xfinity starts here, and the only laps he's led at the track were in the Cup race last year. It's definitely possible that was a fluke, but a 25th-place starting spot is far enough back to make me take that risk.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Starts 31st - DK: $6.3K, FD: $4.5K
We used to constantly talk about how good Ricky Stenhouse Jr. was at Bristol. In 20 starts here, he's recorded seven top 10s, which is impressive considering he raced for Roush Racing during its worst stretch and then JG-Daugherty.
But since moving to the latter, his performance here has tanked. In six starts in the No. 47 car at this track, Stenhouse has one top 10 and four finishes outside the top 30.
Still, Stenhouse starts 31st on Saturday, so...I'm going to play him even with the recent issues here. There's just too much place differential upside to ignore him.
Zane Smith
Starts 33rd - DK: $5.4K, FD: $2.8K
I really love the value with Zane Smith this weekend. Of course, there are the obvious place differential reasons, as a driver who starts this far back almost always offers some upside, as long as he's not a complete backmarker.
But even beyond that, Smith's recent performance suggests he's a strong option. He has finished with positive place differential points in five consecutive races and has recorded two of his three top 10s in that span. Smith, whose 2025 home is still a question mark as he'll be leaving Spire, is hitting his stride right now.
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