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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Bristol for the final race of the Round of 16. Four drivers will see their playoff lives end on Saturday night at the half-mile track in Tennessee. Entering this race, it's Martin Truex Jr., Bubba Wallace, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and Michael McDowell on the outside of the playoff cut line.
News broke yesterday that following this race, NASCAR will revert to running both Bristol races on the normal track surface. That doesn't impact the night race, but it does mean the spring date will no longer be on dirt. It was fun to see that race be on dirt, so I just want to personally express my disappointment. The last two spring races were so much fun!
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race on DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 9/16/23 at 6:33 PM ET. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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DFS Lineup Picks - DraftKings, FanDuel
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Kyle Larson
Starts 36th - DK: $11,500, FD: $14,000
With your top salary spot, I think there's two places you can go. One is to chase laps led, grabbing polesitter Christopher Bell and hoping he can lead 100-plus laps again like he did last year. I have nothing against that strategy. It's a good one. Bell has a great shot to win.
The other strategy is to play Kyle Larson for the place differential, as he rolls off 36th and should be a lot better than 36th by the end of Saturday night's race.
Larson, whose average finish this year is 15.1, has a win and a fourth in this playoff round so far. This 5 car looks like a title contender again, and now he comes to a track where he's run well. Larson won this race in 2021, and he was fifth in last year's race. He's led double-digit laps in three consecutive Bristol starts and overall has led 100-plus laps here three times since 2017.
Chris Buescher
Starts 20th - DK: $9,300, FD: $10,500
You could say that Bristol last year was the start of something for Chris Buescher. After missing the playoffs, he reeled off a big win here, starting 20th and working his way forward. He ultimately led 169 laps.
This year, Buescher starts 20th again. Can he pull off another Bristol victory? He's been one of the hottest drivers in the Cup Series lately, winning three of the last seven races. He struggled at Kansas last week, but this RFK team has had plenty of recent speed.
Ross Chastain
Starts 23rd - DK: $8,500, FD: $8,500
I was going to write about Tyler Reddick, who starts 12th, because it seemed like he had some momentum after his win at Kansas, but then I dug into his Bristol numbers. He has a top-five here, but he struggled in his other three Bristol starts. I bring this up because I do think he's a solid play, but I'm pivoting here to a similarly-priced driver for my main recommendation: Ross Chastain.
Chastain has place differential upside as he rolls off 23rd on Saturday night. Like Reddick, he has just one top 10 here, but four of his starts were in a Jay Robinson-owned car in 2018 and 2019, so can't hold those against him.
In fact, those runs were actually encouraging. Driving one of the worst cars in the field, he managed to keep it clean and post three finishes between 26th and 29th. In good equipment, he's been 14th and sixth here.
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Erik Jones
Starts 31st - DK: $7,400, FD: $7,000
Legacy Motor Club has struggled this year, but it seems like the team has started to find a little speed lately, with Erik Jones posting back-to-back top 10s for the first time this season, including his best finish of the season last week at Kansas. Jones was third in the Hollywood Casino 400.
Jones has finished in the top 10 in half of his Bristol starts. While he was just 21st last year, he had three top 10s in a row before that, including a third-place finish in 2020.
Back in 2017, Jones came so close to winning this race. The polesitter for that one, he led over half the race, sitting out front for 260 of the 500 laps. But he fell just short, finishing second.
Aric Almirola
Starts 26th - DK: $6,900, FD: $6,500
Like Legacy Motor Club, Stewart Haas Racing has struggled in 2023. But also like LMC, the SHR cars seem to have found a little something. For example, Aric Almirola has three top 20s in a row, and he led three laps at Kansas last weekend.
Now, we head to Bristol, where Almirola's got a pretty weird track history. For example, he won the pole here last year and led 36 laps, but a mechanical issue in the final part of the race led to a 28th-place finish. He's finished top 10 in just four of his career starts, but he has started in the top 10 nine times. Almirola has crashed out here a few too many times, but if he keeps the car clean, he can get a top 15, maybe a top 10.
A.J. Allmendinger
Starts 22nd - DK: $6,400, FD: $5,500
There's a lot of uncertainty about this 16 car next year. A.J. Allmendinger has said he'll be full-time for Kaulig, but that the team can decide if that's in Cup or down in Xfinity, where he'd be a title contender.
If he wants to show why he should stay in Cup, this weekend might go a long way. Allmendinger was seventh in this race last year, plus he's 3-for-3 in Xfinity at this track when it comes to getting top 10s, including a 2021 victory. Allmendinger should run a good race on Saturday.
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