Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Football Team Preview - QB, RB, WR, TE Outlooks

Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Baltimore Ravens as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions -- quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end -- and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Throughout this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.

Baltimore will be one of the NFL's most explosive and best offenses. Lamar Jackson and Co. will enter the second year under offensive coordinator Todd Monken. We've seen quarterbacks and offenses take big steps in the past in that second season. After years of running a simplified passing offense centered around the running game, Monken started to diversify the offense a bit, and that kind of big change can take time. It also brought in Derrick Henry, one of the best running backs of the last 10 years. In two out of the last three years, Baltimore has had to go to a running back-by-committee approach because of injuries. Now, it'll have one of the best backfields in the NFL. This offense is going to be scary, and for fantasy, there will be plenty of points scored.

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Fantasy Football Team Previews

Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook

Lamar Jackson: QB4, ADP 41

Last year, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts were the only quarterbacks better than Jackson. Jackson averaged 21.1 PPG, QB3 for the year. Joe Flacco finished with a 21.8 PPG but only played five games. I typically use a 6-8 game minimum qualifier for PPG candidates. He won his second MVP off the back of a 16-game season and improved passing stats. He finished with a career-high in passing yards with 3,678. His previous year was 3,127. He also set career highs in pass attempts, completion percentage, and yards per attempt. His 1.5% interception rate also tied his career-best rate. When Todd Monken was hired as offensive coordinator, this was the hope. The belief was that Monken would implement a more pass-friendly offense.

The slight downside to this was that Jackson also set career lows in rushing attempts and yards per game. However, while that may sound "not good," we must put that in perspective because Jackson's career-worst rushing averages still had him finish with 148 carries, 821 rushing yards, and five touchdowns. Below is a graph detailing Jackson's week-to-week performance last season. He finished as a top-12 quarterback 62% of the time and eclipsed 25 points five times. In years past, he had gotten injured late in the year, but in 2023, Jackson saved his best for last. From Weeks 15-17, the fantasy football playoffs, Jackson averaged 26.2 PPG. No one was better. No one was within 2.5 points of him.

As you can see above, Jackson hit a lull in Weeks 8-10. In those three games, Baltimore scored eight rushing touchdowns and just three passing touchdowns. None of the rushing touchdowns were Jackson's, and one of the three passing touchdowns belonged to Tyler Huntley, who was in late in the fourth quarter of a game that was solidly in the bag for Baltimore. On the plays that Jackson was on the field for, Baltimore scored 24 passing touchdowns and 27 rushing touchdowns, five of which belonged to him. That means Baltimore scored 51 touchdowns with Jackson on the field, and he accounted for 56.8% of them. In Weeks 8-10, Baltimore scored 10 touchdowns with Jackson on the field. Jackson accounted for just 20% of them. Just a bit of bad luck.

Lamar Jackson in 2023:

🌟 PFF Passing Grade: 85.1 (4th)
🌟 PFF Rushing Grade: 86.8 (2nd among QBs) pic.twitter.com/7AHr7beRMS

— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) August 6, 2024

This offense has the potential to be even better this year, which is hard to believe. However, Mark Andrews will be fully healthy. He missed eight games last year. The Ravens used running backs Gus Edwards, Keaton Mitchell, Justice Hill, and Melvin Gordon last year. This year, they'll have Derrick Henry. Last year, Zay Flowers was a rookie. He should be expected to be better in his second season. Baltimore finished fourth in overall points and sixth in yards. The Ravens may finish first in both categories this season.

In addition, the entire offense will be in its second season in Todd Monken's system. His offense is completely different from that of previous offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Especially when you're making such a drastic change, it can take a year to get comfortable with the new system. For all these reasons, Jackson is a player to buy this season. His price is fair, which is more of a testament to the players above him. Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes are correctly ranked in the 1-3 spots, but make no mistake, Jackson has the potential to be "the" QB1.

Verdict: Fair Price on Lamar Jackson (good value)

Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook

Derrick Henry: RB9, ADP 19
Justice Hill: RB74, ADP 269

Let's spit some facts here. Last year, Baltimore running backs averaged 3.1 yards before contact per attempt. This was the best in the NFL. Henry averaged just 2.0 yards before contact per attempt last year in Tennessee. PFF's final 2023 offensive line rankings had the Ravens ranked fifth, and the Titans ranked 32nd. The Ravens scored 483 points last year. The Titans scored 305. That's a difference of 10.47 points per game. Baltimore had 6,296 scrimmage yards. Tennessee had 4,913. That's a difference of 81.35 yards per game. Baltimore had 68 red-zone trips. Tennessee had 48. Baltimore scored 42 touchdowns inside the red zone, scoring on 61.8% of red-zone appearances. Tennessee scored 23 touchdowns inside the red zone, scoring on just 47.9% of its appearances. The Ravens had 28 running back rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line last year. The Titans had 19. Baltimore had 45 running back rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line. Tennessee had 29.

Last year, the Baltimore running backs combined for 364 carries, 1,696 rushing yards, and 20 touchdowns. They also had 72 targets, 56 receptions, 571 receiving yards, and one touchdown. Henry has had 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns every season since 2017. He handled 73% of Tennessee's running back carries last year and 32% of the targets. Let's use that workload distribution along with the 2023 stat line for Baltimore's running backs. If Henry had received 73% of the rushing stats for Baltimore last season, he'd have finished with 266 carries, 1,238 rushing yards, and 14 touchdowns. He'd also have 23 targets, 18 receptions, and 183 receiving yards. That would give him 235.1 half-PPR points and a 13.8 half-PPR PPG average. That would have been the RB11 last season.

However, Tennessee drafted third-round rookie Tyjae Spears last year, who played well. Most would agree that Spears is significantly more talented than Justice Hill, the backup for the 2024 Ravens squad. Henry was also in his final year with Tennessee last year, and everyone knew that. Tennessee had every reason to give Spears a bigger role and see what it had in him. In 2022, Henry handled 85% of the running back carries for Tennessee and 47.6% of the running back targets.

If we predict Henry to handle 85% of Baltimore's carries and 35% of the targets, he'd finish with 309 carries, 1,442 rushing yards, and 17 touchdowns. He'd also have 25 targets, 20 receptions, and 200 yards. That would give him 276.2 half-PPR points and a 16.2 half-PPR PPG average. That would have been RB5 last year. Are 17 touchdowns realistic? No, not really. So, let's keep it at 15 touchdowns because even that is optimistic. If we take away two touchdowns, he'd have 264.2 half-PPR points and a 15.5 half-PPR PPG, which would have been RB5.

With Henry at 30 years old and John Harbaugh's comments that Hill will play a lot, fantasy managers shouldn't expect Henry to handle 85% of the rushing work, but that illustrates his ceiling play. Baltimore will want Henry healthy and available for the playoffs, so don't expect it to run him into the ground. Based on our earlier 75% workload projection, Henry seems to be slightly overpriced. This is especially true when you consider that we projected 15 rushing touchdowns, which is far from guaranteed, even though we can like his chances. Many might be concerned about Jackson stealing touchdowns, like Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen, but that's not really how Jackson is used.

Lamar Jackson's ranks among QBs in fantasy points scored in 2023 👇

Inside the 20-yard line: 5th

Inside the 15-yard line: 6th

Inside the 10-yard line: 5th

Inside the 5-yard line: 25th

(this is a Derrick Henry tweet) pic.twitter.com/SltqqsCMwc

— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) August 5, 2024

Given Henry's likely small receiving role due to his age, the comments about Hill and Jackson's history of not regularly targeting the running back stand out. If we project 1,300 yards rushing, 12 touchdowns, 20 receptions, and 200 receiving yards, he'd finish with 232 half-PPR points and a 13.6 half-PPR PPG. That would've been RB13 last year. While Henry's fantasy value certainly increased with the move to Baltimore and his upside is much higher, fantasy managers are likely getting slightly carried away.

While Henry has the potential to finish between RB4 and RB8, he'd have to run hot on touchdowns. Very hot, and he'd need to revert to handling 85% of the workload. Betting on a 30-year-old running back, even if it is Derrick Henry, to handle that kind of heavy utilization is not a good bet. Betting on someone to score 15+ touchdowns is also not a good bet. For that reason, Henry is a sell. I'd prefer to select him in the RB12-15 range. At RB9, we're just getting too close to his ceiling.

As for Hill, I see little reason for fantasy managers to draft him. Even as a handcuff. He's been in the league for four years with Baltimore. He's never had more than 85 carries in a season. He's never had more than 400 yards rushing. Last year, J.K. Dobbins got hurt in Week 1, and the Ravens were forced to go to a running back-by-committee approach. Despite this, Hill never had 14 carries in a game. He recorded more than five carries in a game just six times. He had 10 or more touches in just five games. Even in a season where Baltimore desperately needed help at the running back position, it didn't use Hill.

Last year, Hill scored more than eight half-PPR points in three games. From 2020-2021, he didn't score eight half-PPR points in a single game. Can we trust Hill to benefit if Henry were to get hurt? Historically, the answer is we can't. Hill is likely to operate as the pass-catching back for the Ravens, but with Jackson as quarterback, that hasn't meant much since he became the starter. There's no flex-level appeal here for Hill as the pass-catcher, and there's little upside, even if Henry gets hurt. He's a sell.

Verdict: Sell Derrick Henry and Justice Hill

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook

Zay Flowers: WR27, ADP 69
Rashod Bateman: WR79, ADP 227

Flowers was a rookie last year, and he put together a quality first season in the NFL. He was likely asked to do more than Baltimore would have liked due to Mark Andrews' injury, but during that stretch of games, Flowers stepped up his game. Looking at Flowers' fantasy football splits with and without Andrews, you'd believe that Flowers greatly benefited from Andrews' absence. In the eight games where Andrews played less than 15% of the snaps, he averaged 12.6 half-PPR PPG. In the other games with Andrews on the field, he averaged just 8.2 PPG. That's the difference between a WR4 and a WR2. However, a lot of that was driven by touchdowns. He scored just one in eight games with Andrews on the field and six in the nine others.

With Andrews on the field, Flowers had two touchdowns on 45 touches. In the other nine, he scored six touchdowns on 51 touches. From Weeks 2-10, Andrews had 17 red-zone targets and six end-zone targets. Flowers had 12 red-zone targets and zero end-zone targets during that same span. In Weeks 1 and 11-17, Flowers had 14 red-zone targets and five end-zone targets without Andrews.

So while he did run into some bad touchdown luck when Andrews was on the field, he also got utilized significantly more near the end zone with him off the field. His expected total touchdowns from Weeks 2-10 was 2.1, and he scored just one. Slightly unlucky, but again, that lackluster red-zone utilization also played a large role in him finding the end zone just once. In Weeks 1, 11-17, and 19-20, Flowers' expected total touchdowns was 3.0 and he scored six.

The table above is from Weeks 2-10 when Andrews was on the field. We've already discussed the red zone and end-zone targets for Flowers and Andrews. You can see that Andrews was Jackson's No. 1 target. While the overall targets were close, Andrews averaged more yards per game, more yards per route run, and was more heavily used near the end zone. However, it's also important to note that Flowers' 8.2 half-PPR PPG average was solidly below his expected PPG average of 11.4. Even if the per-game averages above would put Flowers on pace for 107 targets, 77 receptions, and 882 yards. For a rookie, that's a good season. He always chipped in some rushing yards as well. He did that as a rookie. Not only that, but the entire offense was learning a brand new offense and scheme.

Since Jackson became the full-time starter in Baltimore, the Ravens had employed Greg Roman as offensive coordinator. He ran a very run-heavy offense and never fully unleashed Jackson in the passing game. After years of coming up short in the playoffs, they hired Todd Monken. Monken had been the offensive coordinator for Tampa Bay during Jameis Winston's YOLO era.

The Ravens passed the ball at a higher rate last year than they had. From 2019-2022, they had a 49% pass rate in neutral settings. In 2023, that was 51%. In 2021, the Ravens lost Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins for the season. That forced them to throw the ball more. In 2019, 2020, and 2022, their neutral pass rate was 48%. Baltimore passed the ball 2-3% more last year than it had under Roman. Now that Jackson has a year under his belt in Monken's system, it's fair to expect the training wheels to be completely removed. Due to that, we should anticipate Jackson and Flowers to improve in Year 2 under Monken. Flowers could also see a second-year jump.

The table above shows the nine games where Andrews played less than 15% of the snaps. As you can see, Flowers became Jackson's clear No. 1 target. You can also see that Flowers' stat line isn't all that different. We're talking about 6.3 targets with Andrews to 6.7 targets without him. 51.9 yards per game with Andrews and 54.0 without him. Again, the biggest difference in Flowers' Andrews off-and-on splits was touchdowns. Here's a comparison for you. Flowers had 108 targets, 77 receptions, 858 yards, and five touchdowns as a rookie. He was in a run-heavy offense with a running quarterback. His offensive coordinator was in his first year with the team.

DeVonta Smith had 104 targets, 64 receptions, 916 yards, and five touchdowns as a rookie. He was in a run-heavy offense with a running quarterback. His offensive coordinator was in his first year with the team. In Smith's second season, the Eagles added A.J. Brown. In Flowers' second season, Andrews will be fully healthy. In Smith's second year, he had 136 targets, 95 receptions, 1,196 yards, and seven touchdowns. I'm not saying Flowers is as good as Smith, but make no mistake, Flowers is very good. The point, however, is that many of the same questionable circumstances exist in Smith's second season as in Flowers' second season. Fantasy managers should expect Flowers to take a (big) step forward, just like Smith did.

11/12 WR’s (91.6%) to post 75+ receptions as a rookie have *at least* one WR1 fantasy finish.

Zay Flowers posted 77 receptions as a rookie.

& is being drafted as a WR3 (WR26 ADP) in 2024.

My full case for Flowers HERE:https://t.co/OVLjMp3rfh

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) July 25, 2024

At WR27, Flowers' price is fair. The receiver position is so deep that getting him too much higher is hard, but he's in the correct range. However, he's still a player fantasy managers should be targeting this season. He's a former first-round player now entering his second season in the NFL. Expecting this passing offense to take a step forward in Year 2 under Monken is reasonable. The talent is there. These are the exact players we should be betting on. Let's talk Bateman for just a bit.

I typically don't like the injury-prone moniker. Football is a rough game. There are going to be injuries. Everyone is going to get hurt. Some are more lucky or unlucky than others. That said, Bateman is challenging my take. He missed five games as a rookie. He missed 11 games in his sophomore season. He missed one game last year but played under 50% of the snaps in seven of the 16 games he appeared in. Reports have been that he's already dealt with some injuries this offseason. That history makes it tough to bet on Bateman, especially since he's, at best, the No. 3 option in a limited passing volume.

Last year, he had a 10.7% target share from Weeks 2-10 when Andrews and Flowers were both on the field. However, that includes a few games where his snap share was low. With Odell Beckham Jr. now in Miami, it's fair to expect Bateman's snap share to be higher this year, assuming he's healthy. There were 10 games last year where his snap share was above 55%. This includes three games without Andrews. In those 10 games, Bateman's target share was 12.6%. He averaged 3.6 targets per game and 4.3 half-PPR PPG.

There were four games where Bateman had a snap share of over 70%. One of those was without Andrews. During these four games, Bateman averaged 5.4 half-PPR PPG and 4.25 targets per game. His target share was 16.5%. If we expect this from Bateman this season, assuming he plays 70% of the snaps, we're looking at 68-77 targets (4.0-4.5 targets per game). He has a 61.2% catch rate and a 12.5 yards per reception average for his career. This would give him roughly 44 catches and 550 yards.

He has some contingency value if Andrews or Flowers were to get hurt, but he hasn't shown fantasy managers anything to indicate that he'd be able to capitalize on that increased opportunity. There's nothing wrong with taking a few dart throws at Bateman, but I'm only saying this because he's so cheap. His 227 ADP doesn't even have him being drafted in 18-round drafts, and that's understandable.

Verdict: Fair Price on Zay Flowers (good value) and Dart Throws only on Rashod Bateman

Fantasy Football Tight End Outlook

Mark Andrews: TE4, ADP 49
Isaiah Likely: TE18, ADP 172

Andrews is an absolute smash at his current price. It's absurd he's going as the TE4. From Weeks 2-10, Andrews averaged 12.2 half-PPR PPG. Sam LaPorta finished as the TE1 last year in Weeks 1-17 with an 11.6 half-PPR PPG average. From Weeks 2-10, his expected half-PPR PPG average was 12.3. From Weeks 1-17, T.J. Hockenson had the highest expected half-PPR PPG average among tight ends at 14.9. He tore his ACL and won't be ready for Week 1. Minnesota also lost Kirk Cousins. Travis Kelce was second at 14.7. There are no issues with that one. David Njoku was at 13.8, but his expected PPG average with Deshaun Watson at quarterback was just 8.3; it was 16.5 with any other quarterback. Evan Engram was at 12.9 expected half-PPR PPG, but Christian Kirk missed five games and Zay Jones missed eight. He was significantly better with Kirk off the field. LaPorta was at 11.7. Andrews can be and possibly should be ranked as the TE2.

Mark Andrews’ yearly finishes in fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR) since his second-year breakout in 2019: TE4, TE4, TE1, TE3, TE4.

ADP: TE4

lol

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 19, 2024

In his healthy games last year, Andrews was on pace for 109 targets, 82 receptions, and 984 yards. Andrews remains the one tight end who has rivaled Travis Kelce's ceiling. Yes, LaPorta dethroned Kelce last year, but largely because LaPorta caught 10 touchdowns and Kelce caught five. What's most likely to happen this year? In 2021, Andrews had 153 targets, 107 receptions, and 1,361 yards. That kind of ceiling has not existed for any tight end not named Kelce in the past five years.

The table above includes only the games where Jackson and Andrews played at least 25% of the snaps. As you can see, Andrews has been remarkably consistent, scoring between 11.9 and 12.3 half-PPR PPG in the last three years. All three averages would have been the TE1 last season. Most of his other numbers are incredibly consistent as well. This sample includes 30 games and when he combines them all, he has averaged 7.35 targets, 5.04 receptions, and 62.0 yards per game. Over 17 games, that comes out to 125 targets, 86 receptions, and 1,054 yards. Over these 30 games, Andrews has averaged 12.14 half-PPR PPG and had an expected half-PPR PPG of 13.98.

Even if we factor in his missed game last year and the missed games from Jackson, Andrews has finished as the TE4 (2023, 11.3 half-PPR PPG), TE4 (2022, 10.3 half-PPR PPG), TE1 (2021, 14.7 half-PPR PPG), TE4 (2020, 10.5 half-PPR PPG), and TE4 (2019, 11.7 half-PPR PPG). Fantasy managers are buying Andrews at his floor while also acquiring his immense upside of finishing as the TE1 with numbers that can, and have, rivaled top-10 receivers. He's one of the easiest "buys" this season.

Everyone loves Likely as a tight-end handcuff, but his price is slightly exaggerated. We can look at what he did last year in the games Andrews didn't play as evidence for that. The table below was included earlier in the article, but to make things easier, here it is again.

As you can see, Rashod Bateman had a higher target share than Likely. He also averaged more targets per game than Likely. Likely had a 9.2 half-PPR PPG, but as you can see, his expected half-PPR PPG was much lower. 9.2 would have been TE8 last year, and 7.6 would have been TE14. That's what we can reasonably expect from Likely if Andrews were to get hurt. 7.6-9.2 half-PPR PPG. That's what he did last year. That's not winning any leagues. If you want to draft a high-upside handcuff, why not draft a running back? Dameon Pierce, Khalil Herbert, Bucky Irving, Ray Davis, and Braelon Allen go after Likely. In the event of an injury to the starter above them, their upside is significantly higher than that of Likely.

In games where Andrews was on the field, Likely had a 3.4% target share, averaged 1.0 targets per game, had a 15% route participation rate, and scored just 1.6 half-PPR PPG. Reports have indicated that his role could grow this season and that he'll be utilized alongside Andrews more frequently. That may be true, but it would have to grow astronomically for him to pay off at his TE18 price. He's still, at best, the No. 3A option in a low-passing-volume offense. He'll be guaranteed to be behind Andrews and Flowers, and he'll likely end up splitting with Bateman as Jackson's No. 3 target.

Meanwhile, tight ends like Tyler Conklin, Ben Sinnott, Hunter Henry, and Greg Dulcich could all be their team's No. 2 target earner. Even guys like Taysom Hill and Juwan Johnson have an easier pathway to regular targets than Likely. His price is slightly higher than those because of his status as Andrews' handcuff. However, would Conklin's worth not increase if Garrett Wilson were to get hurt? The same goes for Ben Sinnott and Terry McLaurin. It's also true for Juwan Johnson and Chris Olave. I'm passing on Likely for cheaper tight ends with an easier pathway to regular targets or for a handcuff running back with more upside in the event of the starter getting hurt.

Verdict: Buy Mark Andrews and Sell Isaiah Likely

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