Backfield Breakdowns and Target Shares - Fantasy Football Week 4 Outlooks for Aaron Rodgers, Diontae Johnson, Malik Nabers, and More (2024)

Let’s unpack the fantasy football lowdown from Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season because if you’re not tracking snaps, targets, and those sneaky emerging trends, you might just be missing out on the gold mines. This intel? It’s the secret sauce for nailing those make-or-break start/sit decisions and one-upping your buddies on the waiver wire. The injury gremlins have been busy, and it’s already causing havoc with our lineups.

As NFL defenses have been built to stop offenses that are largely running 11-personnel formations (one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers), we are starting to see a shift in how some offenses have operated. We are seeing more Pro personnel from teams like the Saints to keep the opposition in base defense for much of the game, as well as the Chargers playing Jumbo sets with six offensive linemen in an unbalanced formation.

What’s cooking in Week 4? Hold onto your hats because the backfield battles are getting wild, with some unexpected players taking the lead in snaps. Meanwhile, a few former favorites are fading faster than jeans from the '90s. And in the wide receiver world? We’re seeing a shift in the target share that could shake up your lineup strategies. So, let’s dive into the gritty details from the last week to get you prepped and primed for a stellar Week 4!

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Why Football Data is a Blessing and a Curse

We are in the golden age of football fandom, with all the new data available at our fingertips.

Sites like NextGenStats, Sports Info Solutions, and Pro Football Focus have hundreds of data points available after the conclusion of every game, and they have all kinds of charts and graphs. The average football consumer is much more knowledgeable than a decade ago. This is a good thing, but it comes with its own set of caveats.

If there's anything that's become crystal clear over the last three weeks, it's the reality there's an overabundance of data in the fantasy football space. A lot of it is good, but some of it isn't being applied correctly. Wait, you're writing an article filled with data points, and you're here trying to tell me they don't matter?

Here's what I mean. Many industry experts declared Saquon Barkley to be a fade heading into 2024. He turned 27 years old before his seventh NFL season, and based on some declining metrics from 2023, clearly his best days were behind him, or so many thought.

In the words of Lee Corso: "Not so fast, my friend," it begs the question, how do we take all of those data points and apply them to what really matters within their proper context?

Not all data points are created equal, and the main point of why this article was created was to identify the important data points within their context and why certain trends popping up across the NFL could impact fantasy football going forward. How do we find the sweet spot so that a running back like Saquon Barkley is never declared a mostly industry-wide fade ever again?

Aaron Rodgers and the Jets are Dealing

After losing their opener to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1, the New York Jets have won two consecutive games while scoring three-plus offensive touchdowns in each of them. Why is that important? Well, for starters, the Jets scored three offensive touchdowns in just two games all of last season and still managed to finish 7-10 despite six games where the offense scored ten points or less!

After missing just about all of 2023, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has looked sharp in his last two starts and through three games is 58 of 86 for 624 yards with five touchdowns and just one interception. Despite being 40 years old, the former four-time NFL MVP and future Hall of Famer doesn't look like he is slowing down anytime soon. Rodgers still possesses a potent right arm that can sneak passes into any window.

Due to the Jets slower pace of play and the reality that Rodgers does a lot at the line of scrimmage by taking the play clock down, this offense probably won't be elite for fantasy, but you can still start Rodgers in Superflex leagues, as well as Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson with confidence each week. The Jets are only averaging 58.3 offensive plays per game through three weeks, which is near the bottom of the league.

Many in the fantasy space have been panicking about Wilson and his slow start, but the chemistry with Rodgers and his pass-catchers has been known to take some time. Wilson has just 15 receptions for 150 yards and one TD, but his time to rack up fantasy points will come, and we can bet that the Jets' offense continues to get better as the season goes on.

"The entire focus of all 3 defenses we've played has been taking Garrett Wilson away. It's been Mel Kipers worst nightmare. A lot of Cover 2."- Aaron Rodgers

💀💀💀#Jets pic.twitter.com/xJmV4FADB9

— Harrison Glaser (@NYJetsTFMedia) September 20, 2024

With a defense like this, all the Jets need is for the offense to score 21-plus and not make mistakes and they'll be hard to beat every week. Having Rodgers under center moves the needle by a lot for this team.

Put Some Respect on Brock Purdy's Name

Playing without RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Deebo Samuel Sr., and TE George Kittle, the third-year quarterback from Iowa State had the 49ers on the doorstep of field goal range and a game-winning kick before a drop by Ronnie Bell sank their drive and gave the Rams the ball back to drive down to eventually upset the 49ers 27-24.

Purdy was 22 of 30 for 333 total yards and three touchdowns. He averaged an impressive 9.7 yards per attempt, while his pass catchers had six drops. Maybe now we can eliminate that silly narrative that this guy is simply just a product of the system?

Brock Purdy has 8 incompletions today.

6 were dropped.

— Carmichael Dave (@CarmichaelDave) September 22, 2024

While Purdy's touchdown rate per pass attempt is running hot (6.8 percent for his career and fourth-best in NFL history), continuing to bet on a Kyle Shanahan-led offense usually leads to some very positive results for fantasy. Purdy remains a must-start low-end QB1 with upside every week regardless of the other skill players out there.

Are We Nearing DEFCON 1 for Anthony Richardson and Will Levis?

Many in the fantasy community are starting to worry for Anthony Richardson and Will Levis and it's understandable as to why. Both are currently No. 1 and No. 2 in the NFL in interceptions with 11 total combined! Levis has looked good at times, but his tendency to be reckless with the football has contributed to the Titans' 0-3 start.

Head coach Brian Callahan is in his first year, so he isn't exactly on the hot seat, but the Titans could easily be 2-1 right now if it weren't for a blocked punt and pick-six in Week 1 against the Bears as well as a few bad turnovers from Levis in Week 2 against the Jets where he tried to lateral the ball to Tyjae Spears on third down instead of taking a sack, costing the Titans a field goal.

Titans GM Ran Carthon brought in a handful of veterans this offseason, and Tennessee's roster is potent across the board, except for quarterback. Levis also has three fumbles through three games, which brings his overall turnover number to eight. Backup Mason Rudolph is waiting in the wings, so is it fair to ask just how much longer of a leash Levis has?

With Richardson, the conversation is a little different than it is with Levis. Richardson is a guy who, due to injury as a rookie, has only started one full season in the last four years going back to college. Patience was always going to be a part of the process, so the fact that many are panicking feels like some double counting going on when we knew all along that this guy was a project.

As much as certain fans won’t like it, Anthony Richardson has to keep playing, making mistakes, and learning these hard lessons. If he hasn’t made any strides by season’s end, then it might warrant a conversation. Right now, as infuriating as it can be, he needs to play.

— Cody Felger (@CPFelger55) September 22, 2024

The Colts have shuffled through the likes of Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, and Gardner Minshew II in the wake of the post-Andrew Luck era, do they want to go back down that road after three games?

No doubt, it's been tough sledding for Richardson and the offense, but with all of the pieces that this team has, Richardson doesn't need to be great, he just needs to be adequate while playing on his rookie contract.

Head coach Shane Steichen was brought in from Philadelphia for a reason and so far, has run a capable offense in Indianapolis. The downside is Richardson is 36 of 73 for 583 yards with three passing touchdowns and six interceptions to go along with a putrid 49.3% completion percentage. He has also rushed 18 times for 117 yards and one touchdown.

If you want to bench Richardson in fantasy for the time being to see how he develops, it's more than understandable, but he still has value for fantasy as long as the Colts can get him out in space and use his legs a little more. My general thought heading into the season was that he'd be a better quarterback for fantasy than in real life, but so far, none of that has been true. Nonetheless, stay the course.

How Brian Flores and the Vikings D Shut Down the Texans

If you enjoy the game within the game, what Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is doing with their defense is resonating throughout the league.

While Steve Spagnuolo of the Chiefs probably deserves the moniker of the Buddy Ryan of his generation, Flores has been cooking up all kinds of mad science-type stuff at the line of scrimmage. The best way to explain it is like a dude running nano-blitzes online in Madden, but only now in real life.

The Vikings sit at 3-0 after trouncing the Houston Texans by a score of 34-7 on Sunday while keeping quarterback C.J. Stroud under duress for much of the game. Stroud finished with just 215 yards passing and one touchdown and threw two interceptions. He threw just five all of last year. The Texans wide receivers all had okay enough outings, but Minnesota kept them out of the end zone.

The MIN D is absolutely unhinged.

The scheme is batshit crazy, and they're also getting awesome individual efforts.

Last week Blake Cashman looked like the best player on the field. This week, Jonathan Greenard went off.

Flores has these guys rolling. pic.twitter.com/uCM2iLBrsa

— Josh Cohen (@JCohen_NFL) September 23, 2024

The Vikings' defense crushed the Giants in Week 1 and did the same to Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers in Week 2. What's so significant about it?

By showing one coverage at the line of scrimmage and rotating safeties to show a different look post-snap, Minnesota is confusing offenses everywhere. Linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel is almost playing a hybrid role of sorts where he sometimes rushes the passes and other times drops back into coverage.

A lot of times, Minnesota is showing a Cover-0 at the line, especially on third downs before dropping back into a Cover-2 invert look. It's a long conversation for another day, but since these two coverages are almost diabolically opposed to each other, it's created a lot of confusion for quarterbacks and offensive lines once the ball is snapped.

By not being able to recognize who is blitzing and who is dropping back into coverage, Minnesota has been able to consistently get pressure with four or five rushers, which gives them the bodies to be able to defend on the back end.

There's always the adjustment to the adjustment in this league, but right now, playing guys in fantasy against the Vikings' defense hasn't yielded favorable results.

Important Target Share Data from Week 3

These are the pass catchers with the highest target shares from Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season, and you can find all of their important metrics, including snap shares, targets per route run, and fantasy points per route run, from my RotoBaller colleague, Scott Rinear below.

Due to frame rates and load times, it is more optimal to include all of the data in a separate tweet instead of within the contents of this page.

💥Week 3 Top 40 WRs (PPR) (including MNF)💥

Fantasy points
FPTS/Tgt
FPTS/Route
Snap%
Routes
Route%
Targets
Targets per route run (TPRR)
Target share#FantasyFootball

*Snap/route data per @PFF pic.twitter.com/slwvpahGCQ

— Scott Rinear (@MunderDifflinFF) September 24, 2024

A few important points to consider for these wide receivers after the conclusion of three weeks.

Despite finishing with just three receptions for 39 yards, some positive signs remain for Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Per PFF, JSN played 47 of 50 snaps in 11-personnel on Sunday, as well as nine of 13 snaps in 12-personnel while out-snapping teammate Tyler Lockett 53-36.

Seattle led 17-3 after the first quarter and didn't need to keep airing it out against the Dolphins backup quarterbacks. There's that context thing again.

Malik Nabers is absolutely cooking. What's been incredible about watching him is that despite being a rookie, there isn't a hole in Nabers' game. You can't press him, you can't play off of him because he's such a YAC monster, he wins at the catch point, and he can beat you deep.

It's extremely rare for a rookie wide receiver to be this polished. Despite their quarterback issues, Giants GM Joe Schoen stuck to his guns and took the best player on the board at No. 6 overall in the draft.

Nabers had the Browns defense on skates on Sunday and seemingly willed the Giants' offense by himself. Through three games, Nabers has seen 36 targets to go with 23 receptions for 271 yards and three touchdowns. Last week, he was mentioned in this article as a high-end WR2/low-end WR1 going forward, but with this kind of usage, we can put him in with the top 12 wide receivers the rest of the way.

Jauan Jennings, have yourself a day! The fifth-year wideout from Tennessee went nuclear on Sunday in the absence of CMC, Samuel, and Kittle. Jennings posted 11 receptions for 175 yards and three touchdowns en route to a WR1 finish with 41.0 fantasy points in half-PPR formats. While this was a historic game, Jennings should be added to all leagues and can be started as long as Deebo is out.

Tight end Dallas Goedert had a monster performance for the Eagles in the absence of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who left the game with a concussion. Goedert saw 11 targets and finished with ten receptions for 170 yards. He didn't score a touchdown but remains a viable starting option for fantasy in any games that Brown or Smith should miss.

Bears rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze had a solid outing with six receptions for 112 yards and one touchdown in Week 3. He saw a 98.2% route participation rate along with a 23.4% target share and flashed why he is going to be a special player in this league. Now, the Bears ran 90 plays which is astronomically high and were also without wideout Keenan Allen for the game. So, what does it mean for Odunze?

Right now, it's hard to see Odunze overtaking D.J. Moore in the pecking order, and things will probably still be murky once Allen is back. The Bears' offense still has some kinks to work out, but in the long term, Odunze’s outlook is great, and there should be no concerns about that. However, there could still be some bumps along the way in 2024 while the Bears try to sort this offense out.

What Running Backs Were Bell-Cows in Week 3?

Here were the running backs who saw at least a 60 percent snap share in Week 3.

Here are a few important notes to consider for the running backs and wide receivers. If your favorite RB had a slow day in fantasy, always check the box score. If his team was down 24-3 early in the first half, and he didn't catch passes, well, you know why. Game-scripts matter.

If your favorite wide receiver had a slow day, but his team was up 17-3 at the end of the first quarter against a third-string quarterback, you know why. Game-scripts.

Here are a few important nuggets to consider for the running backs:

The Bears' backfield is morphing into a nasty three-way committee and remains a clear avoid for the time being. D'Andre Swift played the majority of the snaps but lost just about all of the goal line and third-down work to fellow backs Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson.

Swift has averaged under 3.0 yards per carry in all three of the Bears contests so far this season and is averaging just 1.8 yards per carry on the season.

Bucs RB Rachaad White continues to lose snaps to Bucky Irving. Irving led Tampa in rush attempts in Week 3 and through three weeks has 25 rushes for 154 yards, while White has just 31 rushes for 67 yards. White is still a dynamic pass-catching back, but this is a situation to monitor.

Zach Charbonnet has another solid outing, but this kind of usage will be short-lived once Kenneth Walker III returns. Could the Seahawks backfield morph into more of a committee after two great weeks from Charbs? This one will be interesting to watch.

Derrick Henry remains a somewhat game-script-dependent RB for fantasy, even though he shined in Week 3. The Ravens had a 28-6 lead at one point and continued to feed Henry the rock. Henry has found the end zone four times already this season but had his best day of the season against the Cowboys.

Brian Robinson Jr. played the majority of the Commanders' snaps on Monday Night Football, but it was largely due to fellow teammate Austin Ekeler suffering a concussion during the contest.

New Life for Andy Dalton and the Panthers Offense?

The first two weeks were horrible for the Carolina Panthers offense and all of their players in fantasy. After quarterback Bryce Young was sent to the bench, veteran Andy Dalton stepped in and delivered an epic performance, going 26 of 37 for 319 passing yards and three touchdowns. The Panthers routed the Raiders by a score of 36-22.

Veteran Diontae Johnson had a fantastic day with 14 targets to finish with eight receptions for 122 yards and a score. Running back Chuba Hubbard had a career day with 21 rush attempts for 114 yards and one touchdown as well.

Andy Dalton led the @Panthers to victory! 🙌 pic.twitter.com/ssGub1b0bd

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 22, 2024

We likely can't expect this every week from Dalton, but he's shown to be a capable quarterback with adequate weapons around him. Rookie running back Jonathon Brooks can come off of injured reserve as early as Week 5, so ride the Chuba wave while you can. Brooks will be eased in, but it's hard not to envision this backfield being mostly his once he is back up to full speed.

The irony in all of this is that Dalton, aka the Red Rifle, gets a revenge game against the Cincinnati Bengals next week. Speaking of the AFC North, Baltimore, Cleveland, and Cincinnati are all a combined 3-6. Who saw that one coming?

Good Times Ahead in Washington?

Commanders' rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels put on an absolute show on Monday Night Football against the Bengals, going 21 of 23 passing for 254 yards and two passing touchdowns. What's been remarkable about Daniels is how well he has taken care of the football. Through three games, he has zero turnovers.

With the contest still in doubt, Daniels found wide receiver Terry McLaurin on an absolute teardrop of a pass from 27 yards out that dropped right into the arms of wide receiver McLaurin. It's still early, but the nation's capital might finally have a dude.

Daniels has two top-3 QB finishes to his name already, and the Commanders have become an incredibly fun team to watch. This league, man. Unpredictable.

Top Waiver Targets for Week 4

• Bucky Irving, RB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (36% Yahoo!, 33% ESPN)
• Alexander Mattison, RB - Las Vegas Raiders (31% Yahoo!, 30% ESPN)
• Geno Smith, QB - Seattle Seahawks (43% on Yahoo!, 28% ESPN)
• Emanuel Wilson, RB - Green Bay Packers (3% on Yahoo!, 2% ESPN)
• Josh Downs, WR - Indianapolis Colts (25% on Yahoo!, 10% ESPN)

Conclusion

We are now reaching a crossroads of sorts in the 2024 NFL season. While it is still early, teams are starting to show us who they are and what their offenses are about. It's certainly not time to panic, but if you've started 0-3, your finger should be on that emergency button. We want to have faith in the team we drafted but also don't want to completely just bury our heads in the sand.

It's important to stay sharp and be ready to jump on emerging trends before your fantasy rivals do, but don't be the person who shakes things up just to make noise. Not adapting is like fantasy quicksand, or you'll find yourself stuck with underperformers dragging down your score.

Thanks for diving into this week's rundown. Keep coming back for the weekly wisdom that’ll help you outpace the competition. Don’t forget to hit me up on X for the latest scoops and deep dives into all things football. I appreciate your reading, and here’s to crushing it in your leagues. Hopefully, this fantasy season is treating you well.

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