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There's still a lot of time between now and the start of the 2024 NFL season, but some people are already drafting, whether it be really early redraft leagues or best ball leagues.
That means it's never too early to talk about overvalued players. Sometimes, guys are good, but not quite as good as their current ADP indicates. You want to avoid drafting players who won't live up to their fantasy draft stock.
Based on current ADP and expectations, here are five wide receivers to avoid in 2024. These players aren't necessarily going to have bad seasons, but they look like they're going to be overvalued in fantasy drafts.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Stefon Diggs - Houston Texans
Current ADP: WR13
Landing in Houston with second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud would be great news for Stefon Diggs...if Diggs was entering Houston as the No. 1 wide receiver. However, after Nico Collins finished eighth in the NFL in receiving yards last year and Tank Dell caught seven touchdowns in just 11 games, it doesn't feel like Houston is a game-changer for Diggs and his fantasy value.
(With that said, I do think Diggs is a game-changer for the Texans. This is a great move for Houston, but it's not necessarily a great move for Diggs.)
That's not to say Diggs can't be the team's No. 1 receiver. Collins had a monster season, but it was also a much different season than his first two NFL campaigns. In 2022, Collins averaged 48.1 receiving yards per game, but that number exploded to 86.5 yards per game last season. It's fair to wonder if 2023 was an outlier. Stroud helped Noah Brown have some monster games, so it's possible Collins was the beneficiary of being the de-facto No. 1 for the Texans and that the introduction of Diggs to the team will shift things around.
It's possible...but it's not the outcome I expect. Last season, Diggs had his fewest receiving yards since he was with the Vikings in 2019, and now he comes into a situation that's even more crowded with talented receivers.
Michael Pittman Jr. - Indianapolis Colts
Current ADP: WR14
Michael Pittman Jr. had his best season last year, catching 109 passes for 1,152 yards and four touchdowns for the Colts. He missed one game and finished as the overall WR15 in half-PPR.
It was a really good season, but I'm interested to see how Pittman performs with Anthony Richardson starting full-time. In the four games that Pittman played with AR15 under center, the receiver's numbers took a pretty clear drop. Here's the splits, per RotoViz:
Now, look. This is obviously a small sample size, and Gardner Minshew brought more NFL experience to the table, so it makes some sense that Pittman played better with him. But heading into 2024, Richardson is still a raw player, and the Colts are likely to throw fewer passes with him on the field.
Also factoring into my Pittman skepticism is that Indianapolis has a really underrated receiver room. Josh Downs had 771 receiving yards as a rookie and should continue to get better. The team drafted Adonai Mitchell, who has the potential to be a top 20 wide receiver in the NFL. There are more mouths to feed and likely fewer opportunities for that feeding to happen.
Malik Nabers - New York Giants
Current ADP: WR24
As soon as the Giants drafted Malik Nabers, he leaped to the top of the heap in the team's receiver room. Despite that, I'm not sold on Nabers having an explosive rookie season.
The biggest reason is that this passing attack just hasn't been great under head coach Brian Daboll. In 2022, the Giants ranked 26th in passing yards and 24th in passing touchdowns. Last year, they were 31st in yards and 28th in touchdowns.
Daniel Jones said he’s been cutting + “doing everything” as he rehabs. Plan remains be ready for camp.
Asked about Giants flirtation with a QB + Drake Maye, said he’s “focused on what I can control.”
On adding Malik Nabers: “I’m excited,” he said. Noted he’s a dynamic player.
— Jordan Raanan (@JordanRaanan) May 1, 2024
Nabers has the talent to change that a bit, but the team's still being quarterbacked by Daniel Jones. It's just hard to see a rookie coming into an offense with Jones at the helm and performing at a top level on a consistent basis. He'll have his moments, but over the five years Jones has been in New York, no Giants receiver has finished with 1,000 yards. The leading receiver in that span was Darius Slayton, who had 751 yards last season. It's notable that Jones played just six games in 2023.
I'm not saying Nabers will never have a big year, but I think the Giants need a change at quarterback before I'm confident in that happening.
Keenan Allen - Chicago Bears
Current ADP: WR25
Keenan Allen moves over to Chicago this season after 11 years with the Los Angeles Chargers. He played 13 games last season. Allen's 150 targets were the third most of his entire career, and his 95.6 receiving yards per game were the most he's had in the NFL. You can make an argument that 2023 was Allen's best year. Despite the washed-up allegations, Allen is still really good.
But the Bears didn't just add Allen; the team also drafted Rome Odunze, one of the three potentially elite receivers in this year's class. While I lean on Allen being the actual better receiver of the two in 2024, the addition of Odunze introduces some volatility into things. Allen's ceiling is basically where he's being drafted right now, but if Odunze has a better rookie year than expected, Allen can easily fall outside the top 30 at wide receiver.
Christian Kirk - Jacksonville Jaguars
Current ADP: WR35
While Christian Kirk missed five games in 2023, his per-game production was right in line with his first season in Jacksonville. In 2022, he averaged 65.2 receiving yards per game. In 2023, he was at 65.6.
Kirk's a solid NFL receiver, but the Jaguars complicated things for him heading into 2024. The team signed former Bills receiver Gabe Davis this offseason and then spent a first-round pick on LSU's Brian Thomas Jr. Sure, the departure of Calvin Ridley should theoretically help Kirk since he was a 1,000-yard receiver, but with Davis, Thomas, and tight end Evan Engram, things feel more complicated than they did in 2023.
Essentially, Kirk moves up a spot in the pecking order, but Thomas should demand more targets than last year's No. 3 guy, Zay Jones, so it all gets more complicated. Kirk could deliver WR3 value, but if Davis and Trevor Lawrence can get a connection going down the field and Thomas can develop fast, he might not see the monster increase in targets that you might expect him to see.
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