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This Sunday's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas Motor Speedway kicks off the NASCAR Cup Series' playoffs Round of 8. And it's shaping up to be a doozy.
Sure, because of a monstrous regular season, as well as two wins in the six playoff races, Kyle Larson has a big advantage over the cutline (enters the round +42 over fifth). But second (Denny Hamlin) to eighth (Brad Keselowski) is separated by just 22 markers (second to sixth are just eight points apart). That means every point will be valuable over the next trio of races, unless you can win at either Texas or Kansas.
But when it comes to Texas, the 2021 season is the first year since 2004 that the venue hasn't held two Cup points-paying races. Of course, it was sight to the All-Star Race back on a scorching June night, which saw Larson take home $1,000,000. It probably shouldn't come to a shock that the No. 5 car is the favorite for Sunday's race.
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Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles, rankings and and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups. Just a reminder, qualifying isn't until Sunday morning at 9:00 a.m. ET, just four hours before the scheduled green flag.
Kevin Harvick
(DraftKings $10,900 | FanDuel $10,000 | DK SportsBook +1400)
But instead of Larson being the most expensive driver on DraftKings, Kevin Harvick fills that role. Why? Because of the qualifying metrics, which is based on race finish, points position, and fastest race lap from the previous race. And the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL was an interesting one for Harvick.
On lap 56, Harvick put Chase Elliott into the wall, attempting to end his playoff chances. But when Elliott was approaching the No. 4 car's back bumper heading into Turn 1 with 11 laps to go, Harvick overshot the corner and locked up the left front tire driving into the wall. His championship bid was over, ending the race in 33rd. Because of that, he will lineup 24th on Sunday, his worst starting position under the current metric.
With a bad starting position, of course, betting sites are going to make Harvick pricey. And while the No. 4 team is still looking to visit victory lane for the firsts time in 2021, he's been competitive at tracks similar to Texas (think of Nashville, he finished fifth). Harvick has also won three of the last four fall races at TMS.
Kyle Larson
(DraftKings $10,500 | FanDuel $14,500 | DK SportsBook +340)
The most recent winner at Texas, however, is Kyle Larson. And sure, that came in an exhibition race where only money was on the line, but the No. 5 Chevrolet has been dominant on intermediate racetracks this season. Expect nothing less this weekend.
Larson has lead a chunk of laps this season at Homestead, Las Vegas (I), Atlanta, Kansas, Charlotte, Nashville, Darlington and Las Vegas (II), all of which fall under the intermediate banner. In those races, though, he's earned just two victories. And at Vegas last month, once the No. 5 car was back in traffic, he could only rebound to 10th.
For good reason, Larson is the favorite this weekend. He will cost you a pretty penny on FanDuel, but by starting on the pole, he'll likely be up front for a plethora of laps, at least helping your DraftKings lineup. This is a no-brainer this weekend.
Kyle Busch
(DraftKings $9,800 | FanDuel $13,000 | DK SportsBook +700)
Another driver that's been particularly sporty at Texas over the last few years is Kyle Busch. The problem for your lineup could be, the No. 18 Toyota starts from third position on Sunday.
But let's take a deeper diver at Busch's recent stats at TMS. He won the series' most recent points-paying race at the track, ending a nearly year-long winless streak. He cruised to the victory (almost literally, having to save gas), leading 90 laps. And in five of the last six races at the track, he's led double digit laps, including 116 big ones in the spring of 2018 en route to the victory.
And while you can only take so much from the All-Star Race, I would expect many of the same drivers that ran well then to run up front this weekend. Outside of the No. 5 car, Busch arguably had the best car, but just couldn't get the right track position. Because of that, he placed ninth.
Joey Logano
(DraftKings $9,100 | FanDuel $10,500 | DK SportsBook +1200)
On paper, Joey Logano's statistics at Texas might not stand out because he has just one triumph at the track (2014), but they are quite good.
The No. 22 team enters Texas this weekend with three straight top-10 runs at Texas. Outside of finishing 17th in the spring 2019 race, Logano hasn't finished outside the top 10 at the track since 2015. And in those last 10 races, he's earned five podium finishes.
Like Busch, the only problem this weekend is Logano starts fifth. And this season, the No. 22 team doesn't have a single top-five finish on an intermediate track; the 550 horsepower package has been the weak link for Team Penske this season. However, Ryan Blaney did win at Michigan, which is the same rule's package as Texas.
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Kurt Busch
(DraftKings $8,700 | FanDuel $8,700| DK SportsBook +2500)
If Logano has been among the best at Texas over the last handful of years, Kurt Busch ranks right up there with him. Similarly to Logano, Busch also hasn't visited victory lane at TMS during that timeframe.
Busch enters the race with eight consecutive top-10 finishes at Texas. Surprisingly, none of those have come inside the top five. Still, with the No. 1 Chevrolet taking the green flag in 17th, there's a lot of ground to be made up.
And unlike Logano, Busch has proven to be competitive on intermediates this season, especially during the second half of the season. Flashback to early July, he edged out his brother Kyle to a victory at Atlanta. In the two intermediate tracks since then, he's earned finishes of sixth and eighth, respectively, at Darlington and Las Vegas. At 25-1 odds of winning, this could be your sleeper pick for the weekend.
Austin Dillon
(DraftKings $7,500 | FanDuel $8,500 | DK SportsBook +2800)
Whenever a driver can go back to a track they've recently won at they have confidence. Austin Dillon did just that at Texas last summer, his first Cup win in a non-fuel mileage or superspeedway event.
The No. 3 team earned it, too. Pitting for two tires late gave Dillon the lead and he was able to hold on (as was his Richard Childress Racing teammate Tyler Reddick for second) for the win with a rash of late-race restarts. With this aerodynamic package, clean air has become excessively king at Texas.
On the Cup circuit, Texas has always been one of Dillon's best tracks. He enters the weekend with five consecutive top-15 finishes at TMS. That's a popular number this weekend for the No. 3 car, as it will start 15th on Sunday. On DraftKings, Dillon is a solid driver for the back half of your lineup.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
(DraftKings $7,200 | FanDuel $5,700 | DK SportsBook +15000)
In all likelihood, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. won't compete for the win on Sunday. However, he has had standout runs this year on intermediate tracks, such as his sixth-place finish -- at one point drove up to second -- at Nashville.
On average, the No. 47 Chevrolet has been between a 12th- and 20th-place car on speed at intermediates. Early in the year he had results of 11th, 12th and 13th at Homestead, Las Vegas and Atlanta -- impressive for an underfunded JTG Daugherty Racing team. Recently, Stenhouse has a pair of 17th-place finishes at Darlington and Las Vegas.
If you're going to go big at the top of your lineup for drivers such as Larson on FanDuel, you're going to have to even it out later on. At $5,700, Stenhouse is a fair tradeoff for those big-name drivers. The No. 47 car will also start 27th, meaning there's potential to gain quite a few spots, should he finish where he's averaged on intermediates this season.
Corey LaJoie
(DraftKings $5,700 | FanDuel $4,500 | DK SportsBook +35000)
Should you go really heavy at the top of your lineup, you might need a couple of drivers to fill out your lineup for a bargain price. With Corey LaJoie sitting at $5,700 on DraftKings and $4,500 on FanDuel, this might be one of your guys.
The good news is, LaJoie will start from 29th on Sunday, meaning, like Stenhouse, there's ground to be made. And if you want to remain even more positive, LaJoie has had impressive runs this season, oftentimes running well inside the top 15. In the playoff opener at Darlington, the No. 7 Chevrolet drove up inside the top 10.
The bad news is, Texas has never treated LaJoie very kindly. However, he did finish 16th in the July race last year, for an underfunded Go Fas Racing team. Sometimes you just need a driver to fill out your lineup and hope for the best, and LaJoie isn't a bad choice for that.
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