Caleb Smith (SP, MIA) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~215-225 CURRENT ADP: ~247 overall ANALYSIS: The Marlins aren't anybody's idea of a good team, and Caleb Smith's 4.52 ERA and 5.05 xFIP over 153 1/3 IP in 2019 aren't exciting. However, there is a lot of potential in this package. Smith's fastball combines an above-average spin rate (2,425 RPM) with elite […]

ADP Champ or Chump Spotlight: Gleyber Torres

When people think of Gleyber Torres, the first thing that springs to mind is the fact that he completely obliterated the Baltimore Orioles in 2019 to the tune of .394/.467/1.045 with 13 HR. His supporters claim that the Orioles are still terrible, so Torres will be able to fatten up his stat line again. His […]

ADP Champ or Chump Spotlight: Pete Alonso

Peter Alonso was a hyped name heading into the 2019 MLB season. FanGraphs was optimistic, giving him a perfect 80 grade on raw power along with a 70 future grade for game power. He was ranked as the top first-base prospect (and 51st overall) by MLB Pipeline, with scouts noting an advanced ability to access his […]

ADP Champ or Chump Spotlight: Keston Hiura

With the entire MLB world in a holding pattern due to Coronavirus concerns, now is a great time to delve more deeply into fantasy profiles than you ever have before. One player who warrants a closer look is Keston Hiura, the 23-year-old second baseman for the Milwaukee Brewers. Hiura was a regular on top prospect […]

ADP Champ or Chump Spotlight: Eloy Jimenez

Considering that the Coronavirus has delayed the season indefinitely, it's a great opportunity to try changing up the formatting of this column. We're going to take a deep look into one player, spending time on his MiLB numbers in addition to MLB peripheral stats in order to paint a truly complete picture of his prospects […]

ADP Champ or Chump: Cavan Biggio and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The Toronto Blue Jays are an intriguing team. Projections don't love them, but their lineup is filled with young guys who have the potential to exceed them. Their rotation also looks solid if healthy, something that may be more likely now that a full workload will be more like 120 IP than 200. Needless to […]

ADP Champ or Chump: Kyle Gibson and Michael Brantley

Many fantasy owners fall into the trap of thinking that upside wins leagues -- it doesn't. Profit, or getting more production than you paid for, wins leagues. The upside of a top prospect can be one way of securing profit if they pan out right away, but there are other, more reliable forms of profit […]

ADP Champ or Chump: Niko Goodrum and Jose Altuve

Auctions are an unpredictable draft format by nature, and these uncertain times make them all the more so. The present author participated in an auction this past weekend and was able to purchase two noteworthy players at significant discounts. One of those players was a $1 flier on Niko Goodrum, a player who offers an […]

ADP Champ or Chump: Freddy Peralta and Ken Giles

The conventional fantasy wisdom this season seems to be that you need to devote a lot of draft resources to pitching. The logic goes that ace starters are so much better than other arms that you need to have at least one before the end of the third round in standard 12-team leagues. Furthermore, experts […]

Rick Lucks's Bold Predictions for 2020

While the coronavirus has delayed the start of the MLB season, Bold Prediction season is in full-swing here at Rotoballer. Not knowing how many games will actually be played makes numerical positions difficult, as 30 HR are a lot more impressive over 100 games than 162. That said, I've tried to base the predictions below […]

ADP Champ or Chump: Michael Conforto and Mike Clevinger

In the wake of the coronavirus, Major League Baseball games won't be starting on schedule. While there are obviously more important things going on right now than fantasy baseball, we baseball junkies have to do something to distract ourselves from losing one of our favorite hobbies. One way to do this is to try and […]

ADP Champ or Chump: Christian Walker and Luis Robert

Fantasy owners love prospects, especially shiny new toys that they've never had an opportunity to play with before. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was drafted very highly last season, but his fantasy production didn't really live up to his draft-day cost even after Toronto finished playing service time games with him. This year, Luis Robert is poised […]

Kole Calhoun (OF, ARI) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~280 CURRENT ADP: ~298 overall ANALYSIS: Kole Calhoun hit .232/.325/.467 with 33 HR over 632 PAs for the Angels in 2019 before signing with Arizona as a free agent. Thirty-three bombs are nothing to sneeze at, and his peripherals suggest that his power uptick was real. Calhoun's 22.9% HR/FB last season was […]

ADP Champ or Chump: Kole Calhoun and Rafael Devers

Welcome! This column takes a deep dive into two player profiles to determine if they represent value at their current draft day cost or if you would be better off looking at similarly-priced options. We incorporate every grain of relevant data we can, including info from Baseball Savant, Roster Resource, FanGraphs, FantasyPros, and Baseball Prospectus. […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: MiLB Stats

Once you've grown accustomed to having advanced tools to help make fantasy decisions, it can feel disorientating to be without them. Prospects are increasingly becoming a focal point in both real and fantasy baseball, but the minors simply do not have all of the data publically available for MLB players. For example, advanced plate discipline […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Ballpark Factors

If you have ever selected a streamable pitcher based on home park or benched an otherwise must-start arm at Coors Field, you already know how much a stadium can impact a player's bottom line. Ballpark Factors quantify the influence each stadium has, allowing you to make the most of your fantasy team's real-life schedule. Today, […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Expected Stats

Statcast is a valuable tool for fantasy analysis, and it can be easy to look at a stat called "Expected Batting Average" and blindly use it as your projection moving forward. Of course, proper use of these metrics is a little bit more nuanced than that. First, a disclaimer: This article is about the "Expected […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitcher Statcast

Statcast metrics such as Barrels and Brls/BBE are great ways to evaluate a batter's performance, so it is only natural to assume that the metrics would be predictive for pitchers as well. As much as batters want to hit a Barrel every time, pitchers want to avoid them at all costs. Yet there is evidence […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Spin Rate

Spin rate has become one of the most recognizable Statcast metrics, with supporters of a given pitcher highlighting his spin rates to make their case. Unfortunately, the baseball world has done a lousy job conveying what spin rate really means. The result has been a ton of owners who know that spin rate exists, but […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitch Info

One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. More than any other sport, baseball has a slew of statistical measures that can be dissected in numerous ways to analyze player performance. Pitch Info is a publicly-available pitch tracking system that provides a lot of different data to […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitcher BABIP

While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy owners should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what really matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. While some of this luck is unpredictable, we can and should predict some […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: FIP and xFIP

The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy owners encounter is FIP. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, and attempts to measure a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting cast. According to the DIPS theory, pitchers control only Ks, BBs, and home runs allowed. Therefore, Ks, walks, and dingers are […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Lineup Spot

You may be wondering why there aren't any advanced stats aimed at predicting a player's counting stats like runs and RBI. The answer is simple: modern sabermetrics reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team-dependent stats and are unhelpful in ascertaining […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pull%

We have previously determined that fantasy owners generally prefer batters to hit the ball into the air in order to have a chance at a home run. Yet, all fly balls are not equal for this purpose. A player can maximize his power production by pulling the ball in the air. One way to illustrate […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Plate Discipline

No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy owners have known for years that players like Chris Davis are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players that whiff a lot tend to continue […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Batted Ball Distribution (Hitters)

Fly balls can turn into home runs. Ground balls never do. It would seem as though fantasy owners want their batters to hit nothing but flies, yet this is not always the case. Why would this be? The answer, of course, comes down to batted ball distribution and the manner in which batters make contact. […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Barrels

Last time, we looked at how exit velocity (or EV) is only one piece of the fantasy analysis puzzle. Baseball broadcasts will commonly cite Launch Angle (LA) to complement their EV figures, but it is given in terms of degrees. Am I evaluating a baseball player or trying to find the hypotenuse of an isosceles […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: BABIP for Hitters

The most accessible of the fantasy-relevant advanced stats is BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. It simply measures a player's batting average on balls in play, with outcomes such as strikeouts and home runs removed from consideration. In general, the league average hovers around .300, a nice round number to remember. Many know […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Exit Velocity

If you've watched a baseball broadcast in the so-called Statcast Era, you have undoubtedly noticed the broadcasters commenting on a batted ball's exit velocity, or EV. Many have taken to using stats like Hard% and Soft% to forecast how a player should be performing, expecting larger Hard% rates to produce larger BABIP and HR/FB figures. […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: HR/FB

Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Average is a category in many league formats and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. But most owners find the long ball sexier. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI. Many owners […]