Batting Order: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

You may be wondering why there aren't any advanced stats aimed at predicting a player's counting stats like runs and RBI. The answer is simple: modern sabermetrics reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team-dependent stats and are unhelpful in ascertaining […]

Pull%: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

We have previously determined that fantasy managers generally prefer batters to hit the ball into the air to have a chance at a home run. Yet, all fly balls are not equal for this purpose. A player can maximize his power production by pulling the ball in the air. One way to illustrate this is […]

HR/FB: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Batting average is a category in many league formats, and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. Most fantasy managers find the long ball sexier. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI. Many […]

FIP/xFIP: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

While we've only examined how to evaluate hitters using advanced stats thus far, sabermetrics are at least as useful for pitchers. The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy owners encounter is FIP. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching and attempts to measure a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting […]

Pitcher BABIP: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy managers should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. While some of this luck is unpredictable, we can and should predict some of […]

Plate Discipline: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy managers have known for years that players like Mike Zunino are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players that whiff a lot tend to continue […]

Batter BABIP: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

The most accessible of the fantasy-relevant advanced stats is BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. It simply measures a player's batting average on balls in play, with outcomes such as strikeouts and home runs removed from consideration. In general, the league average hovers around .300, a nice round number to remember. Many know […]

Hitter Batted-Ball Distribution: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

Fly balls can turn into home runs. Ground balls never do. It would seem as though fantasy owners want their batters to hit nothing but flies, yet this is not always the case. Why would this be? The answer, of course, comes down to batted ball distribution and how batters make contact. The league average […]

Introduction to Advanced Stats - Sabermetrics Fantasy Baseball Analysis

Hello, fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. This series will attempt to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy owners may find useful, citing examples of how to use them in the process. Multiple […]

Champ or Chump: Me!

With just a week to go this season, most fantasy seasons have come to an end. Managers in weekly formats have set their final lineup, and predicting how teams will distribute playing time based on their ever-changing needs ahead of time is an exercise in futility. The entire premise of this column relies on using […]

Champ or Chump: Elias Diaz

If you're reading this, your fantasy baseball roster is probably still playing for something. Congratulations! If a positive result hasn't been locked in yet, remember that your league's caps for games played and/or innings pitched should be seen as targets. At the end of the day, the fantasy manager who hits those caps enjoys a […]

Champ or Chump: Ranger Suarez

Last week, we discussed how dropping seemingly undroppable players could make sense for fantasy managers in battles that are going to the wire. While that's true, it also means that you could find somebody on waivers who you might not expect to be there. For instance, Ranger Suarez of the Philadelphia Phillies has a 1.38 […]

Champ or Chump: Frank Schwindel

Now that the calendar has officially flipped to September, it's time to get weird if it helps you in the standings. If your league is coming down to saves and holds, roster SP-eligible relievers such as Diego Castillo and Ryne Stanek instead of starting pitchers. If you're ready to move on from a big name […]

Champ or Chump: Edward Cabrera

With September call-ups limited to just a handful of players instead of every rebuilding club's entire 40-man roster, fantasy managers may not get as many new names on their waiver wires as they've grown accustomed to. That said, there are still some interesting names coming up. The Miami Marlins got a jump on the competition […]

Champ or Chump: Amed Rosario

With football monopolizing the general media's sports coverage, many fantasy baseball managers begin checking out and thinking more about QBs and RBs than QS and RBI. If you're in the middle of the pack, now could be a good time to make some prudent additions and begin rising up the standings. It's crunch time, folks! […]

Champ or Chump: Josiah Gray

Last week, this column took a detailed look at Tylor Megill's performance to date and concluded with a pessimistic take on the sustainability of his current numbers. If your roster needs pitching and Megill isn't the answer, you may be wondering who is. This author would answer Josiah Gray. Gray was always regarded as a […]

Champ or Chump: Tylor Megill

Isn't it amazing what one player can do? Led by Jacob deGrom, the New York Mets appeared poised to waltz into the playoffs after outlasting a mediocre division. With deGrom out for an extended period, the Phillies have surged past them while the Braves currently enjoy a half-game advantage over them. The Mets ace was […]

Champ or Chump: Tanner Houck

Did any team have a more puzzling trading deadline than the Boston Red Sox? Okay, the Seattle Mariners trading their All-Star closer to the team they're chasing for a package largely comprised of future value was a bit strange. Still, the Red Sox need a pitcher and an injured power hitter without a position is […]

Champ or Chump: Patrick Sandoval

Patrick Sandoval exploded onto the national scene when he nearly no-hit the Minnesota Twins, but his name has been whispered in fantasy circles as a potential sleeper for quite a while. He posted a 4.02 xFIP in 39 1/3 IP in 2019 and 4.00 xFIP in 36 2/3 IP in 2020, but actual ERAs of […]

Champ or Chump: Jarren Duran

The MLB trade deadline is quickly approaching, and contenders are incentivized to get a look at top prospects to see if they have internal solutions for their problems or will have to look outside of their organization for help. The Boston Red Sox have summoned Jarren Duran from Triple-A to see if he could give […]

Champ or Chump: Vidal Brujan

With the All-Star Break upon us, it's the perfect time to look at your league's standings page and figure out how best to approach the second half. If you aren't on pace to reach your innings and/or games played limits, you should definitely look to maximize your games played moving forward. If you could gain […]

Champ or Chump: Trevor Story

With the announcement that Trevor Story would participate in the 2021 Home Run Derby, fantasy managers were given an opportunity to consider the strange season he's having. The combination of nine homers and 14 SB delivers plenty of fantasy value, but his .254/.327/.443 triple-slash line is far short of expectations for a guy who hit […]

Champ or Chump: Sammy Long

With news breaking that Wander Franco would make his much-anticipated big league debut tonight, we're reminded what fantasy managers look for in a rookie. We want advanced physical tools, including power and speed for hitters and sexy velocity and spin rate numbers for pitchers. We look for strong MiLB performances as well. We want guys […]

Champ or Chump: Alec Bohm

A lot of huge names are underperforming in 2021, including DJ LeMahieu, Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, Freddie Freeman, and Trevor Story. Alec Bohm isn't the same type of household name those guys are, so the fact that he's only slashing .224/.266/.309 on the season with four homers and three steals after a breakout debut in […]

Champ or Chump: Cedric Mullins

Cedric Mullins is probably one of the biggest fantasy surprises of the year. The 26-year-old was virtually unheard of heading into 2021, though he logged MLB PAs in each season since 2018. Toiling in Baltimore can make it easy to get overlooked, especially if you're posting mediocre numbers with worse peripherals. Mullins gave up switch-hitting […]

Champ or Chump: Jarred Kelenic

Jarred Kelenic was one of the hottest prospect names coming into the 2021 fantasy baseball draft season. A since-fired executive blatantly admitted that the 21-year-old was ready for the Show last season but that the team didn't call him up for service time reasons, leading some managers to feel that the Mariners would carry him […]

Champ or Chump: Adolis Garcia

Fantasy managers generally look for certain qualities when evaluating prospects. We like younger players who post dominant numbers on the farm. We like prospects with raw tools that make scouts salivate, leading to appearances on top prospect lists. We like players who we had heard of before the season started. Adolis Garcia checks none of […]

Champ or Chump: Huascar Ynoa

Is your fantasy team looking for more pitching? Nearly every manager is, making it difficult to find breakout arms on the waiver wire since everybody is looking for the same thing. This situation can also make it far too easy to put more faith in a breakout performance than warranted, potentially leaving you with an […]

Champ or Chump: Dominic Smith

Evaluating 2020 fantasy seasons has been very difficult. Each player's season line looks like a full campaign on a player's FanGraphs page or the back of their baseball card, but in truth, it's only slightly more than one-third of a full season. There had to be some legitimate breakouts that we shouldn't discount, but how […]

Champ or Chump: Luis Castillo

Nothing is worse for a fantasy manager than when an early-round pick puts up disastrous numbers. You can't start the guy because he's brutalizing your ratios, yet you can't drop him because you've invested too many resources to give him up for free. What if he turns it around in his next appearance and you […]