Champ or Chump: Masahiro Tanaka and Garrett Richards

Last season, most fantasy owners decided to fade Yankees ace Masahiro Tanaka in light of reports that he was attempting to pitch despite needing Tommy John surgery. Those who invested were rewarded with a quality season, as Tanaka went 14-4 with a 3.07 ERA in a full season of pitching (199.2 IP). Last year's discount […...

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 1: BABIP for Hitters

Hello fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. This series attempts to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy owners may find useful, citing examples of how to use them in the process. Twenty advanced […...

Champ or Chump: Dustin Pedroia and Evan Longoria

It is time for the fantasy community to realize that we collectively suffer from an age bias. Sure, a 35-year old is unlikely to break out in the same manner a 23-year old could, but he is also less likely to turn into an overhyped bust. Youth and experience should be balanced on most fantasy […...

Francisco Cervelli (C, PIT) - 2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~260 CURRENT ADP: 272.3 ANALYSIS: Francisco Cervelli's .264 batting average despite an otherwise down 2016 campaign proved that he is a guy who won’t hurt you. His 1.6% HR/FB has nowhere to go but up, and his .329 BABIP may seem inflated for a catcher, but he can run a little and […...

Travis d'Arnaud (C, NYM) - 2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~ 250 CURRENT ADP: 281.7 ANALYSIS: Travis d’Arnaud was a popular sleeper pick heading into 2016, as his .268/.340/.485 line with 12 dingers in 268 plate appearances had fantasy owners interested. A shoulder injury bit into his playing time and limited him to a .247/.307/.323 line with four homers, however, removing him […...

Stephen Vogt (C, OAK) - 2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~220 CURRENT ADP: 240.7 ANALYSIS: Stephen Vogt's .251/.305/.406 line with 14 HR wasn't sexy, but the bar for catchers is pretty low. He is a little better than his surface stats suggest, too. His BABIP on ground balls was just .153 last year against a career average of .218. The shift was […...

Wilson Ramos (C, TB) - 2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~230 CURRENT ADP: 253 ANALYSIS: Wilson Ramos had one of the better 2016 seasons for a catcher, as he hit .307/.354/.496 with 22 bombs in a breakout campaign. He also tore his ACL, preventing him from playing until May 2017 at the earliest. He seems to be recovering nicely from the knee […...

Champ or Chump: Mark Trumbo and Chris Archer

This is a bit of a slow time in terms of baseball news. Most of the interesting free agents have already signed, such as Mark Trumbo returning to the club he slugged 47 homers for last year. The trade market is also dead, with Tampa Bay starters seeming to be the most likely to move […...

Champ or Chump: Logan Forsythe and Justin Turner

I read something the other day referring to the Yankees as possible "AL Dodgers" due to their ability to spend. I thought LA's limitless payroll made them the NL's Yankees, but apparently the team is the new "Evil Empire." Regardless of their reputation, the team has kept its offseason under control. Balking at Minnesota's asking […...

Five Catcher Draft Values and Sleepers For 2017

The 2017 MLB season, like the vast majority of campaigns that have come before it, figures to feature a weak catcher position. Not to worry - today I'm here to help identify some early catcher draft values and potential sleepers for the 2017 fantasy baseball season. Catchers who can hit at all require you to […...

Champ or Chump: Kendrys Morales and Jose Bautista

Toronto has had a polarizing offseason to say the least. Faced with the possibility of losing two of their trademark sluggers, the team jumped on DH Kendrys Morales with a long term contract to fill the void. The move was questioned at the time, and looked even worse when the market refused to pay for […...

Champ or Chump: Nate Karns and Jose Quintana

Pitching always seems to define my fantasy seasons, good and bad. After covering Jarrod Dyson in the last Champ/Chump, it makes sense to acknowledge that the piece Kansas City acquired is also interesting from a fantasy perspective. Jose Quintana may be the best pitcher on the trade market, so he has been involved in his […...

Champ or Chump: Jarrod Dyson and Ian Desmond

Welcome back RotoBallers, to my ongoing series of Champs or Chumbs. I take a look at different MLB players, and determine if they truly will be viable fantasy baseball assets in 2017. Fantasy owners have a need for speed that blows the value of the stolen base way out of proportion relative to the real […...

Champ or Chump: Sonny Gray and Jason Hammel

Clubs looking for starting pitching are mostly out of luck in this market. Sonny Gray is the among the biggest names on the trade market, but he posted a 5.69 ERA last year. Jason Hammel is the top remaining free agent, but he is not anyone's idea of an ace. Can either help 2017 fantasy […...

Champ or Chump: Danny Espinosa

Last season saw a significant uptick in league-wide home runs, reducing the value of power-only profiles in the fantasy game. No one has conclusively determined why homers were up, but some people are assuming that it will remain the case for 2017. It might, but I look forward to drafting power at a discount in […...

Champ or Chump: Cameron Maybin

This time of year, it is easy to think only about the big names who are on the move, the Chris Sales and Andrew McCutchens of the world. Once the season starts up again, however, role players make a larger impact collectively on who plays in October. The same principle applies to the fantasy game. […...

Reviewing Rick Lucks's Bold Predictions For 2016

During the offseason, I joined a bunch of my fellow Rotoballer writers in boldly predicting what might occur in the upcoming season. I foolishly ended that piece's intro with ,"Am I a Champ or a Chump?" despite the fact that no one had any idea how I did yet. The season is over, so now […...

Champ or Chump: How'd I Do?

The point of Champ or Chump is to use every metric imaginable to try to predict how a player will perform in the future. It's not always right, as true talent levels change while luck plays a role in every play's individual outcome. Historically, I conclude the analysis based on what I see as the […...

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Tillman, Hanley, and Gary Sanchez

As we head toward the season's final week, chances are your fantasy fate has been decided. Even if it hasn't, adding players for this year only holds so much potential value. Your process may be flawless, but the tiny sample size remaining can ruin the best laid plans. My favorite story to that effect is from […...

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Gregorius, Nunez, and Dozier

A few weeks back, I lamented Rich Hill's blister problem because it prevented me from including him in my NL trade deadline article. He is back now, but was famously pulled after just 89 pitches despite being perfect for seven innings, again due to blister concerns. Babying him may be the best move for the […...

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Happ, Porcello, and King Felix

After two weeks of identifying underowned pieces who could help you solidify your stretch run, I figure it is time to do the opposite. Below are three pitchers that you have likely been relying on for some time now, but may not want to do so now that it is all on the line. Their […...

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Peraza, Prado, and Tyler Anderson

Thanks to the new splits tab on Fangraphs.com, we now have access to BABIP data by batted ball type for pitchers. This is a useful tool for determining whether a speedy batter has been fortunate, and I expect this new data to tell us how much a pitcher is benefiting from or being hindered by […...

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Conforto, Gray, and Ray

At this point in the year, all fantasy teams fall into one of three categories. There's the winner, the team that built an insurmountable lead in a rotisserie or points format or clinched a H2H playoff spot. If that is you, congratulations! Then there's the also-ran, the team that nothing went right for all season. […...

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Tim Anderson, David Dahl, and Trea Turner

By this stage of the season, there is no such thing as a perfect fantasy move. Every player available to you has warts, be they a lack of track record, unacceptable strikeout rate, or surface stats unsupported by underlying metrics. That first group is the focus of this week's column, as we look at three […...

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Moore, Reddick, and Kemp

Sometimes, a blister just ruins your day. I did AL players that were traded last week, hoping that Rich Hill's blister issues would be resolved by the time I got to the NL. They aren't, so Hill won't appear in this column. Instead, we'll look at Matt Moore's efforts to make a contending team worse, […...

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Pomeranz, Beltran, and Lucroy

The non-waiver trade deadline has officially passed, and baseball fans were treated to a number of last second deals. Unfortunately for my purposes, most of them are RPs that I evaluate by whether they get saves. Washington's Mark Melancon and Chicago's Aroldis Chapman earn Champ tags from me as they figure to continue earning saves. […...

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Gordon, Hamilton and Villar

It's Trade Deadline time, but I can't analyze lineup spots or roles resulting from trades that haven't happened yet. So, I'll save that for next week. I also promised myself I'd cover Dee Gordon upon his return from the stupidity suspension list, which happened this past Thursday. I also resolved to pair him with fellow […...

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Kepler, Pujols and Strasburg

It's the first full week of MLB action after the All-Star Game, and plenty of stories have emerged. Max Kepler is lighting waiver wires on fire with a scorching hot start to his MLB career. Albert Pujols is celebrating like it's 2006 with two multi-HR games this past week. With the unfortunate injury news on […...

Champ or Chump: What to Make of NL All-Stars Cueto, Duvall, and C. Seager

As you may know, the AL defeated the NL 4-2 in the All Star Game. As a lifelong NL fan, this saddens me. I have to ascribe the blame to Terry Collins. Why was the completely unqualified Addison Russell allowed to play so long? Why did Jay Bruce and his replacement level performance log defensive […...

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Bruce, Polanco, and Myers

Over the last two weeks, we have profiled expensive draft day assets who have largely failed to live up to the hype. This week, we change it up a bit by discussing established players who have exceeded expectations thus far. All three have experienced success before. Jay Bruce was once a feared slugger. Gregory Polanco […...