ADP Champs or Chumps: Nick Castellanos & Alex Bregman

A fair amount of fantasy analysis consists of figuring out what to do with younger players. It is relatively easy to project veterans with established track records, and most owners know to avoid inexplicable flukes like Sandy Leon's 2016 campaign. Interpreting whether younger guys will improve, remain consistent, or move backwards is often where fantasy […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 7: FIP & xFIP

The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy owners encounter is FIP. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, and attempts to measure a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting cast. According to the DIPS theory that the metric is based upon, pitchers control only Ks, BBs (and HBP) and home […]

ADP Champs or Chumps: Andrew Benintendi & Charlie Blackmon

The outfield can be a bountiful place for fantasy production. Speed demons, power bats, batting average studs, and even five category contributors are all available. Sometimes, this versatility fools owners into thinking that the position is deeper than it actually is. If you play in a shallow mixed league, there are plenty of outfielders to […]

ADP Champs or Chumps: J.T. Realmuto & Gary Sanchez

Position scarcity has been a fantasy consideration since the game was invented. If you could get first baseman numbers from a shortstop, that shortstop was worth way more due to the relative lack of production at the position. With the rise of offensive middle infielders and the corresponding decline in great corner options, scarcity is […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 6: Lineup Slot & Counting Stats

To this point, this series has focused exclusively on trying to predict and validate HRs and batting average. There is a reason for this--modern sabermetrics tend to reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team dependent stats, and are unhelpful […]

ADP Champs or Chumps: Anthony Rendon & Jake Lamb

Today's topic is 26-year-old NL third baseman. I know that is ridiculously specific, and it did not become the theme until I realized that both featured players fit the criteria. Anthony Rendon has been a fantasy darling since his debut, but his health and production have frequently left owners wanting more. Jake Lamb was a […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 5: Pull%

Earlier in my series on using sabermetrics for fantasy baseball, we saw that fantasy owners generally prefer batters to hit the ball into the air in order to have a chance at a home run. Yet all fly balls are not equal for this purpose. A player can maximize his power production by pulling the […]

ADP Champs or Chumps: Carlos Santana & Khris Davis

Power is what drives the average fantasy offense. Not only are homers directly counted in most formats, but every bomb comes with a run scored and at least one RBI as well. One-dimensional power guys actually have three dimensions in a standard 5x5 format. If you can handle the batting average risk, they make for […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 4: Plate Discipline

No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy owners have known for years that players like Adam Dunn, Chris Carter, and Chris Davis are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players that whiff […]

ADP Champs or Chumps: Aaron Nola & Jon Gray

When streaming starting pitchers, there are generally two criteria to choose the best option. The first is the quality of the opposition, as a lesser offense is less likely to hurt your ratios. The second is venue, as fantasy owners look to maximize innings in Kansas City and Miami while avoiding Coors Field like the […]

Champ or Chump: DJ LeMahieu & Xander Bogaerts

The end of most drafts is filled with quality, yet flawed talent. Chris Carter could hit you 30+ bombs when he's not torpedoing your batting average, while there seems to be a never ending supply of jackrabbits who can steal a bunch of bases if they can figure out how to hit a single. The […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 3: Batted Ball Distribution

Fly balls can turn into home runs. Ground balls never do. It would seem as though fantasy owners want their batters to hit nothing but flies, yet I closed the last piece by stating that this is not the case. Why would this be? Let's take a look, as my series on using sabermetrics for […]

Champ or Chump: Michael Fulmer & Kenta Maeda

Pitchers can be crazy to try to project. Most of their fantasy-relevant stats, such as wins and ERA, are heavily influenced by factors outside of their control. Often your best bet is to focus on strikeouts, a fantasy stat that pitchers actually have control over. This is especially true when looking at arms with relatively […]

Champ or Chump: Jonathan Villar & Billy Hamilton

Fantasy baseball has always assigned more importance to the running game than its real life counterpart. Rotisserie leagues set steals as equally valuable to home runs, despite the fact that the latter are a guaranteed run on the board. As homers go up and steals decline, some are arguing that steals should be more of […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 2: HR/FB%

Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Average is a category in many league formats, and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. But most owners find the long ball sexier. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI. Many owners […]

Champ or Chump: Joc Pederson and Byron Buxton

All too often, fantasy owners chase upside in the early rounds. Why take a guy like Gary Sanchez, who might develop into a top C option, when you can take the far safer Jonathan Lucroy instead? You need upside to win in fantasy baseball, but you do not need to take it in the first […]

Champ or Chump: Masahiro Tanaka and Garrett Richards

Last season, most fantasy owners decided to fade Yankees ace Masahiro Tanaka in light of reports that he was attempting to pitch despite needing Tommy John surgery. Those who invested were rewarded with a quality season, as Tanaka went 14-4 with a 3.07 ERA in a full season of pitching (199.2 IP). Last year's discount […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 1: BABIP for Hitters

Hello fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. This series attempts to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy owners may find useful, citing examples of how to use them in the process. Twenty advanced […]

Champ or Chump: Dustin Pedroia and Evan Longoria

It is time for the fantasy community to realize that we collectively suffer from an age bias. Sure, a 35-year old is unlikely to break out in the same manner a 23-year old could, but he is also less likely to turn into an overhyped bust. Youth and experience should be balanced on most fantasy […]

Francisco Cervelli (C, PIT) - 2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~260 CURRENT ADP: 272.3 ANALYSIS: Francisco Cervelli's .264 batting average despite an otherwise down 2016 campaign proved that he is a guy who won’t hurt you. His 1.6% HR/FB has nowhere to go but up, and his .329 BABIP may seem inflated for a catcher, but he can run a little and […]

Travis d'Arnaud (C, NYM) - 2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~ 250 CURRENT ADP: 281.7 ANALYSIS: Travis d’Arnaud was a popular sleeper pick heading into 2016, as his .268/.340/.485 line with 12 dingers in 268 plate appearances had fantasy owners interested. A shoulder injury bit into his playing time and limited him to a .247/.307/.323 line with four homers, however, removing him […]

Stephen Vogt (C, OAK) - 2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~220 CURRENT ADP: 240.7 ANALYSIS: Stephen Vogt's .251/.305/.406 line with 14 HR wasn't sexy, but the bar for catchers is pretty low. He is a little better than his surface stats suggest, too. His BABIP on ground balls was just .153 last year against a career average of .218. The shift was […]

Wilson Ramos (C, TB) - 2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~230 CURRENT ADP: 253 ANALYSIS: Wilson Ramos had one of the better 2016 seasons for a catcher, as he hit .307/.354/.496 with 22 bombs in a breakout campaign. He also tore his ACL, preventing him from playing until May 2017 at the earliest. He seems to be recovering nicely from the knee […]

Champ or Chump: Mark Trumbo and Chris Archer

This is a bit of a slow time in terms of baseball news. Most of the interesting free agents have already signed, such as Mark Trumbo returning to the club he slugged 47 homers for last year. The trade market is also dead, with Tampa Bay starters seeming to be the most likely to move […]

Champ or Chump: Logan Forsythe and Justin Turner

I read something the other day referring to the Yankees as possible "AL Dodgers" due to their ability to spend. I thought LA's limitless payroll made them the NL's Yankees, but apparently the team is the new "Evil Empire." Regardless of their reputation, the team has kept its offseason under control. Balking at Minnesota's asking […]

Five Catcher Draft Values and Sleepers For 2017

The 2017 MLB season, like the vast majority of campaigns that have come before it, figures to feature a weak catcher position. Not to worry - today I'm here to help identify some early catcher draft values and potential sleepers for the 2017 fantasy baseball season. Catchers who can hit at all require you to […]

Champ or Chump: Kendrys Morales and Jose Bautista

Toronto has had a polarizing offseason to say the least. Faced with the possibility of losing two of their trademark sluggers, the team jumped on DH Kendrys Morales with a long term contract to fill the void. The move was questioned at the time, and looked even worse when the market refused to pay for […]

Champ or Chump: Nate Karns and Jose Quintana

Pitching always seems to define my fantasy seasons, good and bad. After covering Jarrod Dyson in the last Champ/Chump, it makes sense to acknowledge that the piece Kansas City acquired is also interesting from a fantasy perspective. Jose Quintana may be the best pitcher on the trade market, so he has been involved in his […]

Champ or Chump: Jarrod Dyson and Ian Desmond

Welcome back RotoBallers, to my ongoing series of Champs or Chumbs. I take a look at different MLB players, and determine if they truly will be viable fantasy baseball assets in 2017. Fantasy owners have a need for speed that blows the value of the stolen base way out of proportion relative to the real […]

Champ or Chump: Sonny Gray and Jason Hammel

Clubs looking for starting pitching are mostly out of luck in this market. Sonny Gray is the among the biggest names on the trade market, but he posted a 5.69 ERA last year. Jason Hammel is the top remaining free agent, but he is not anyone's idea of an ace. Can either help 2017 fantasy […]