Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 4: Plate Discipline

No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy owners have known for years that players like Adam Dunn, Chris Carter, and Chris Davis are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players that whiff […]

ADP Champs or Chumps: Aaron Nola & Jon Gray

When streaming starting pitchers, there are generally two criteria to choose the best option. The first is the quality of the opposition, as a lesser offense is less likely to hurt your ratios. The second is venue, as fantasy owners look to maximize innings in Kansas City and Miami while avoiding Coors Field like the […]

Champ or Chump: DJ LeMahieu & Xander Bogaerts

The end of most drafts is filled with quality, yet flawed talent. Chris Carter could hit you 30+ bombs when he's not torpedoing your batting average, while there seems to be a never ending supply of jackrabbits who can steal a bunch of bases if they can figure out how to hit a single. The […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 3: Batted Ball Distribution

Fly balls can turn into home runs. Ground balls never do. It would seem as though fantasy owners want their batters to hit nothing but flies, yet I closed the last piece by stating that this is not the case. Why would this be? Let's take a look, as my series on using sabermetrics for […]

Champ or Chump: Michael Fulmer & Kenta Maeda

Pitchers can be crazy to try to project. Most of their fantasy-relevant stats, such as wins and ERA, are heavily influenced by factors outside of their control. Often your best bet is to focus on strikeouts, a fantasy stat that pitchers actually have control over. This is especially true when looking at arms with relatively […]

Champ or Chump: Jonathan Villar & Billy Hamilton

Fantasy baseball has always assigned more importance to the running game than its real life counterpart. Rotisserie leagues set steals as equally valuable to home runs, despite the fact that the latter are a guaranteed run on the board. As homers go up and steals decline, some are arguing that steals should be more of […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 2: HR/FB%

Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Average is a category in many league formats, and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. But most owners find the long ball sexier. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI. Many owners […]

Champ or Chump: Joc Pederson and Byron Buxton

All too often, fantasy owners chase upside in the early rounds. Why take a guy like Gary Sanchez, who might develop into a top C option, when you can take the far safer Jonathan Lucroy instead? You need upside to win in fantasy baseball, but you do not need to take it in the first […]

Champ or Chump: Masahiro Tanaka and Garrett Richards

Last season, most fantasy owners decided to fade Yankees ace Masahiro Tanaka in light of reports that he was attempting to pitch despite needing Tommy John surgery. Those who invested were rewarded with a quality season, as Tanaka went 14-4 with a 3.07 ERA in a full season of pitching (199.2 IP). Last year's discount […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 1: BABIP for Hitters

Hello fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. This series attempts to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy owners may find useful, citing examples of how to use them in the process. Twenty advanced […]

Champ or Chump: Dustin Pedroia and Evan Longoria

It is time for the fantasy community to realize that we collectively suffer from an age bias. Sure, a 35-year old is unlikely to break out in the same manner a 23-year old could, but he is also less likely to turn into an overhyped bust. Youth and experience should be balanced on most fantasy […]

Francisco Cervelli (C, PIT) - 2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~260 CURRENT ADP: 272.3 ANALYSIS: Francisco Cervelli's .264 batting average despite an otherwise down 2016 campaign proved that he is a guy who won’t hurt you. His 1.6% HR/FB has nowhere to go but up, and his .329 BABIP may seem inflated for a catcher, but he can run a little and […]

Travis d'Arnaud (C, NYM) - 2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~ 250 CURRENT ADP: 281.7 ANALYSIS: Travis d’Arnaud was a popular sleeper pick heading into 2016, as his .268/.340/.485 line with 12 dingers in 268 plate appearances had fantasy owners interested. A shoulder injury bit into his playing time and limited him to a .247/.307/.323 line with four homers, however, removing him […]

Stephen Vogt (C, OAK) - 2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~220 CURRENT ADP: 240.7 ANALYSIS: Stephen Vogt's .251/.305/.406 line with 14 HR wasn't sexy, but the bar for catchers is pretty low. He is a little better than his surface stats suggest, too. His BABIP on ground balls was just .153 last year against a career average of .218. The shift was […]

Wilson Ramos (C, TB) - 2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~230 CURRENT ADP: 253 ANALYSIS: Wilson Ramos had one of the better 2016 seasons for a catcher, as he hit .307/.354/.496 with 22 bombs in a breakout campaign. He also tore his ACL, preventing him from playing until May 2017 at the earliest. He seems to be recovering nicely from the knee […]

Champ or Chump: Mark Trumbo and Chris Archer

This is a bit of a slow time in terms of baseball news. Most of the interesting free agents have already signed, such as Mark Trumbo returning to the club he slugged 47 homers for last year. The trade market is also dead, with Tampa Bay starters seeming to be the most likely to move […]

Champ or Chump: Logan Forsythe and Justin Turner

I read something the other day referring to the Yankees as possible "AL Dodgers" due to their ability to spend. I thought LA's limitless payroll made them the NL's Yankees, but apparently the team is the new "Evil Empire." Regardless of their reputation, the team has kept its offseason under control. Balking at Minnesota's asking […]

Five Catcher Draft Values and Sleepers For 2017

The 2017 MLB season, like the vast majority of campaigns that have come before it, figures to feature a weak catcher position. Not to worry - today I'm here to help identify some early catcher draft values and potential sleepers for the 2017 fantasy baseball season. Catchers who can hit at all require you to […]

Champ or Chump: Kendrys Morales and Jose Bautista

Toronto has had a polarizing offseason to say the least. Faced with the possibility of losing two of their trademark sluggers, the team jumped on DH Kendrys Morales with a long term contract to fill the void. The move was questioned at the time, and looked even worse when the market refused to pay for […]

Champ or Chump: Nate Karns and Jose Quintana

Pitching always seems to define my fantasy seasons, good and bad. After covering Jarrod Dyson in the last Champ/Chump, it makes sense to acknowledge that the piece Kansas City acquired is also interesting from a fantasy perspective. Jose Quintana may be the best pitcher on the trade market, so he has been involved in his […]

Champ or Chump: Jarrod Dyson and Ian Desmond

Welcome back RotoBallers, to my ongoing series of Champs or Chumbs. I take a look at different MLB players, and determine if they truly will be viable fantasy baseball assets in 2017. Fantasy owners have a need for speed that blows the value of the stolen base way out of proportion relative to the real […]

Champ or Chump: Sonny Gray and Jason Hammel

Clubs looking for starting pitching are mostly out of luck in this market. Sonny Gray is the among the biggest names on the trade market, but he posted a 5.69 ERA last year. Jason Hammel is the top remaining free agent, but he is not anyone's idea of an ace. Can either help 2017 fantasy […]

Champ or Chump: Danny Espinosa

Last season saw a significant uptick in league-wide home runs, reducing the value of power-only profiles in the fantasy game. No one has conclusively determined why homers were up, but some people are assuming that it will remain the case for 2017. It might, but I look forward to drafting power at a discount in […]

Champ or Chump: Cameron Maybin

This time of year, it is easy to think only about the big names who are on the move, the Chris Sales and Andrew McCutchens of the world. Once the season starts up again, however, role players make a larger impact collectively on who plays in October. The same principle applies to the fantasy game. […]

Reviewing Rick Lucks's Bold Predictions For 2016

During the offseason, I joined a bunch of my fellow Rotoballer writers in boldly predicting what might occur in the upcoming season. I foolishly ended that piece's intro with ,"Am I a Champ or a Chump?" despite the fact that no one had any idea how I did yet. The season is over, so now […]

Champ or Chump: How'd I Do?

The point of Champ or Chump is to use every metric imaginable to try to predict how a player will perform in the future. It's not always right, as true talent levels change while luck plays a role in every play's individual outcome. Historically, I conclude the analysis based on what I see as the […]

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Tillman, Hanley, and Gary Sanchez

As we head toward the season's final week, chances are your fantasy fate has been decided. Even if it hasn't, adding players for this year only holds so much potential value. Your process may be flawless, but the tiny sample size remaining can ruin the best laid plans. My favorite story to that effect is from […]

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Gregorius, Nunez, and Dozier

A few weeks back, I lamented Rich Hill's blister problem because it prevented me from including him in my NL trade deadline article. He is back now, but was famously pulled after just 89 pitches despite being perfect for seven innings, again due to blister concerns. Babying him may be the best move for the […]

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Happ, Porcello, and King Felix

After two weeks of identifying underowned pieces who could help you solidify your stretch run, I figure it is time to do the opposite. Below are three pitchers that you have likely been relying on for some time now, but may not want to do so now that it is all on the line. Their […]

Champ or Chump: What to Make of Peraza, Prado, and Tyler Anderson

Thanks to the new splits tab on Fangraphs.com, we now have access to BABIP data by batted ball type for pitchers. This is a useful tool for determining whether a speedy batter has been fortunate, and I expect this new data to tell us how much a pitcher is benefiting from or being hindered by […]