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Sean Wrona - RotoBaller

708 articles

I ran the auto racing statistical archive race-database.com from 2007 to 2015 and have been doing advanced auto racing analytics since 2013, mostly on my website Racermetrics. I was generally regarded as the fastest typist in the world throughout the 2010s, being most famous for winning the Ultimate Typing Championship at the South by Southwest Interactive conference in 2010. In 2021, I released my first book, Nerds per Minute: A History of Competitive Typing. I am currently doing research for a second book where I intend to rank the top 1,000 drivers in motorsports history and have built several statistical models to rank drivers across various motorsports series. I have just recently launched a blog at http://seanwrona.substack.com/ where I am releasing one driver capsule a day for my book if you are interested in subscribing. I earned a BA in Economics and an MPS in Applied Statistics from Cornell University in 2007 and 2008 respectively. I also am an expert-rated tournament Scrabble player. In high school, I was the statistician for the Mensa Scrabble-by-Mail Special Interest Group and wrote a 15-20 page column in that group's newsletter every other month. As you can see, I've been at this for a quarter century already.

Articles

Ryan Preece Qualifies Poorly As Usual

Although Ryan Preece has had a pretty terrible season, teams in the garage remain interested in him and he looks poised to move to RFK Racing in 2025. Since he is expected to be driving for a better Ford team next year as opposed to his teammates Josh Berry and Noah Gragson (who are arguably […]


Las Vegas Is One Of Michael McDowell's Worst Tracks

Michael McDowell has been a consistent qualifier at Las Vegas and has now qualified between 12th and 18th in his last five starts, including 15th for Sunday's race. However, this is absolutely one of his worst tracks, as he has never finished better than 17th or posted an average running position of better than 18th. […]


Joey Logano Consistently Strong At Las Vegas

After Joey Logano earned an unexpected playoff bid after Alex Bowman's disqualification at the Charlotte roval, Logano looks to extend his bizarre streak of making the Championship Round of the NASCAR playoffs for the sixth consecutive even-numbered year. Although he seems significantly slower than all the other playoff drivers, Las Vegas really suits him. He […]


Corey LaJoie Will Likely Struggle At Las Vegas

Corey LaJoie has had decent moments at Las Vegas with four top-20 finishes, and he had one of his strongest runs of his career to date with an average running position of 13th in the March race, even though he eventually crashed near the end. But he probably won't run nearly as well this time. […]


Jimmie Johnson Might Be The GOAT At Las Vegas, But Not In His Current Car

Jimmie Johnson used to be great at Las Vegas with four wins from 2005 to 2010, most notably the 2006 event where he led only the final lap after passing Matt Kenseth on a green-white-checkered restart. However, he has not been competitive anywhere with the Next Gen car and Legacy Motor Club hasn't been much […]


Las Vegas Likely A Learning Experience For Shane van Gisbergen

After failing to advance to the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Xfinity Series playoffs, Shane van Gisbergen had the worst finish of his Xfinity Series career after a fuel-pump failure in Saturday's race. Don't expect much better from him in Sunday's event, as it doesn't seem like he has much speed in the Cup […]


Chase Elliott Unexpectedly Weak At Las Vegas With Next Gen Car

Even though Chase Elliott contended to win at Las Vegas a couple times with the Gen 6 chassis, he has generally struggled with the Next Gen chassis, as he has never led a lap at the track or finished better than ninth with this chassis. He only qualified 18th for Sunday's event, while all three […]


Austin Dillon Surprisingly Consistent At Las Vegas But Never A Real Contender

Las Vegas has been a decent track for Austin Dillon, who qualified 13th for Sunday's race. Although he's rarely significantly factored for the lead or the win, he has started and finished between 10th and 20th in all but one of the last seven races at this track and he's been a little faster since […]


Austin Cindric Usually Finishes Worse Than He Starts At Las Vegas

After being eliminated from the NASCAR playoffs last week despite his best efforts, Austin Cindric qualified a solid 11th right behind his teammate Joey Logano. Although Cindric has a long-standing history of qualifying well and fading through the pack as a race progresses, he's done a little better at avoiding that in the second half […]


Flat Intermediate Tracks Remain Chase Briscoe's Achilles Heel

While Chase Briscoe has certain tracks where he runs very well, flat intermediates tend to not be one of them as he is often significantly lacking in speed at those tracks. In the most recent intermediate race at Kansas, he pretty much ensured that he would be eliminated from the NASCAR playoffs after falling from […]


Josh Berry Likely To Be Hurt By Weak Ford Speed At Las Vegas

Although Josh Berry has won twice at Las Vegas in the NASCAR Xfinity Series, he has not been very competitive there in the Cup Series, as he only finished 20th in the March race, and he had a miserable run the year before when he finished 29th while filling in for Chase Elliott in a […]


Brake Failure At Charlotte Roval Ends Daniel Suarez's Playoff Hopes

Daniel Suarez's improbable playoff drive screeched to a grinding halt at the Charlotte roval, a track where he has sometimes had speed but never delivered a good finish. That happened again in yesterday's race as Suarez was in the top ten for most of Stage 2, but his day effectively ended when Bubba Wallace forced […]


Alex Bowman's Disqualification Spares Joey Logano From Playoff Elimination

Although it initially looked like Joey Logano failed to advance to the Round of 8 after Sunday's Charlotte roval race when Tyler Reddick made a furious charge to secure what seemed to be the last playoff spot, Alex Bowman's post-race disqualification unexpectedly allowed Logano back into the playoffs, thereby continuing his streak of making the […]


Austin Cindric's Gallant Roval Performance Not Enough To Advance To Round Of 8

Austin Cindric tried his hardest to deliver a clutch victory at Charlotte to lock himself into the Round of 8 after his near-miss at Talladega. He started and finished fourth at the roval in his best road course drive in the Cup Series since his second-place finish at the Indianapolis roval in 2022. Although he […]


Broken Steering Eliminates Chase Briscoe From NASCAR Playoffs

Chase Briscoe essentially had no chance of advancing to the Round of 8 in the NASCAR playoffs unless he won at the Charlotte roval, which was going to be an extreme longshot to begin with since he only qualified 25th. However, he was ultimately eliminated from the playoffs after being involved in a string of […]


Daniel Suarez Has Road-Course Speed But Not Enough To Make Up Deficit

Daniel Suarez enters Sunday's Charlotte roval race 10th in the standings, 20 points behind the playoff cut line. Trackhouse Racing certainly has good road-course speed, as Ross Chastain easily could have won at Watkins Glen had he not been bitten by caution timing. Although Suarez tends to consistently have speed on road courses as well, […]


Ryan Preece Rarely Competitive On Road Courses

In what might be Ryan Preece's final road-course race as a Cup Series driver, he qualified 34th for Sunday's race at the Charlotte roval. Although his modified experience occasionally helps him in treacherous conditions, like in the 2021 Austin race where he briefly fought for the lead in heavy rain, he is just as mediocre […]


John Hunter Nemechek Gets New Crew Chief In Legacy Motor Club Reshuffle

Legacy Motor Club has struggled so much this season that they shook everything up on Tuesday by firing Erik Jones's crew chief Dave Elenz, replacing him with John Hunter Nemechek's crew chief Ben Beshore, and replacing Beshore with Legacy technical director Brian Campe on Nemechek's car. Campe is a major question mark at this point, […]


Joey Logano Probably Won't Advance To Round Of 8 Despite Qualifying Fourth

Joey Logano qualified fourth for Sunday's Bank of America Roval 400. Logano has consistently been a solid but not electrifying performer at the Charlotte roval, as he has both qualified in the top 10 and finished in the top 10 in all but one race he has competed there. But on the other hand, he's […]


Corey LaJoie Steadily Consistent In Recent Weeks

After a litany of embarrassing crashes this summer, Corey LaJoie has quietly recaptured his 2021-2023 form. Although it was too little, too late to save his Spire Motorsports ride, the move may have been a blessing in disguise since Chris Lawson is a better crew chief than Ryan Sparks and now he gets to be […]


Brad Keselowski Picking Up Road-Course Speed

Brad Keselowski has not been a particularly noted road racer in recent years as he has only posted a single finish better than 10th on a road course in the 2020s and he had vastly more top-10 finishes on this track type in his Penske years, even though there were fewer road courses on the […]


Erik Jones Hopes Crew-Chief Change Will Elevate Performance

Although Erik Jones finally earned his first top five in over a year at Talladega, he still ran very poorly, especially for a drafting expert. He only finished fifth at Talladega because he lost the draft, which enabled him to miss the Big One. His performance has not improved, which explains why crew chief Dave […]


Daniel Hemric's Best Hope Is Piggybacking Off Shane van Gisbergen's Setups

Although Daniel Hemric has never done much on the Charlotte roval at the NASCAR Cup Series level, he was a reliably consistent driver there in the Xfinity Series with four top-10 finishes, including two third-place finishes along with starting fourth or better in every one of his starts. But the Cup Series is another beast, […]


Noah Gragson Solid At Charlotte Roval In Xfinity Series

Noah Gragson qualified 32nd for the Charlotte roval in a session where none of the Stewart-Haas Racing drivers did very well. Although Gragson did not compete here last year because he was fired by Legacy Motor Club before this portion of the season, he did compete once here in 2022 where he started 29th and […]


Austin Cindric's Road-Course Record Weaker Than People Think

After Austin Cindric's crash at Talladega, he fell 29 points behind Chase Elliott for the final transfer spot to make the Round of 8. Cindric winning his way into the Round of 8 can't entirely be ruled out since he is starting fifth, but he also isn't as good on road courses as people seem […]


Harrison Burton Has No Motivation To Run Well After Playoff Elimination

Although it's hard to imagine Harrison Burton contending in Sunday's Charlotte roval race, especially since he is a lame-duck driver and starting 26th, it is worth noting that he did finish third on the short-lived Indianapolis roval as a rookie in 2022, which was his best finish before his win at Daytona this year. He […]


Chase Briscoe's Cinderella Story Will Likely End At Charlotte

Chase Briscoe is almost certainly not going to advance to the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs since he enters Sunday's race at the Charlotte roval 12th in the standings, 32 points behind Chase Elliott for the final transfer spot. Briscoe does have solid runs on road courses periodically and just finished […]


Ryan Blaney Should Be Safe To Advance Despite Inconsistent Road-Course Record

Ryan Blaney has tended to struggle on road courses with the Next Gen chassis and has been slightly faster on road courses this year than in 2023, particularly at Sonoma, where he started third and finished seventh. Although he won the inaugural Charlotte roval race after Jimmie Johnson wrecked Martin Truex Jr. and himself while […]


Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Wins At Talladega To Salvage Lackluster Season

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is considered one of the foremost NASCAR Cup Series drafting specialists and he backed that up with a win in Sunday's YellaWood 500 at Talladega. He also won Stage 1 after a last-lap pass of Chris Buescher. Although he has had a low-key very disappointing season, as his speed percentile of 34.69% […]


Joey Logano Triggers Big One At Talladega, Falls Below Cut Line

Joey Logano had an unexpectedly disappointing run at Talladega on Sunday, although most people expected much more from him, especially after his win at Atlanta. Although Logano was one of the dominant drivers for most of Stage 3, making seven on-track passes for the lead in an epic duel with his teammate Austin Cindric and […]


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