Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. Still Consistent on Drafting Tracks, but Leading Much Less

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. has been regarded as one of the leading drafting track specialists for many years now, and he did indeed earn a sixth-place finish in the winter race at Atlanta and a fourth at Talladega this year, but his speed decline that has persisted throughout the season has affected him at those tracks […]

Ryan Preece Unlikely to Benefit From Ford Speed at Atlanta

Ryan Preece has not had the speed of any of his Stewart-Haas Racing teammates this season, and that looks likely to continue in this afternoon's Atlanta race. While all three of his teammates have had bursts of speed on drafting tracks, Preece mostly hasn't since his JTG-Daugherty Racing days and his 21st place qualifying run […]

Michael McDowell Wins Series-Best Fifth Pole at Atlanta but Probably Lacks Racecraft to Win

Michael McDowell won his fifth pole of the season for this afternoon's Quaker State 400, tying Kyle Larson for the most this season. This marked his fourth consecutive pole on a drafting track, the longest such streak since Bill Elliott won six straight poles at Daytona and Talladega in 1985 and 1986. However, while qualifying […]

Erik Jones Has Lost Superspeedway Mojo Since Switch to Toyota

Erik Jones used to be regarded for many years as one of the best superspeedway drivers, but this seems to have faded in recent years. Although he did lead often in drafting races in the first year with the Next Gen chassis in 2022, he has seldom contended at those tracks or anywhere else since […]

Expect Carson Hocevar to Ride in the Back Again at Atlanta

Although Carson Hocevar had his first crash DNF since the Daytona 500 in last week's Southern 500, he has been surprisingly good at avoiding crashes despite his overaggressive style, which is the main reason he is beating Josh Berry for Rookie of the Year even though Berry has had more speed. He seems to be […]

Daniel Hemric Consistent on Drafting Tracks Despite Lack of Speed

Although Daniel Hemric has been one of the slowest drivers this season, his 14th-place qualifying run yesterday matches his best of the season at the spring Dover race and he's been genuinely quite consistent on drafting tracks because he's been less crash-prone than most other drivers this year and crash avoidance is often sufficient to […]

Noah Gragson Likely Running Too Anonymously to Contend at Atlanta

Noah Gragson has had a fairly anonymous season as his teammates Josh Berry and Chase Briscoe have outperformed him throughout the season, but Gragson has been most successful on the superspeedways as his best run of the season came in the spring Talladega race, where he finished third and posted the best driver rating in […]

Shane Van Gisbergen Has Drafting Speed, but Still Has a Lot to Learn

Shane van Gisbergen makes his Atlanta debut in the NASCAR Cup Series today from 28th but he has already run two NASCAR Xfinity Series races at the track. In the winter race, he unexpectedly finished third after dodging the wrecks but he hit the wall in yesterday's Xfinity race while running in the top ten, […]

Austin Dillon Mediocre at Atlanta Despite Strong Drafting Record

Although Austin Dillon has had some good finishes at Daytona and Talladega, he hasn't been nearly as successful at Atlanta either before or after it became a drafting track. Despite the speed his teammate Kyle Busch has regularly shown including losing out in the three-wide photo finish in the winter Atlanta race, Dillon has never […]

Harrison Burton Probably Won't Repeat Daytona Performance at Atlanta

After improbably winning the last drafting race in the NASCAR Cup Series at Daytona to make the playoffs, Harrison Burton sits in the awkward position of being a playoff contender without a ride for next year. As a result, Burton will probably be trying really hard to prove himself more to land a ride for […]

Chase Briscoe Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta Despite Unexpected Playoff Bid

After his successful Hail Mary in last week's Southern 500 granted him a playoff bid, Chase Briscoe qualified tenth for tomorrow's Atlanta race. He has been consistently fast in qualifying on drafting tracks with the Next Gen car as this marks his 11th top ten start in 17 races, but he hasn't run very well […]

Josh Berry Has Solid Speed, but Crash Frequency Raises Concerns for Atlanta

Josh Berry starts fourth at Atlanta, extending a bizarre trend where he has qualified in the top five for every odd-numbered race since Iowa. Although he's rarely thought of as a superspeedway driver, he was very fast at Daytona, where he had one of the best runs before he and Austin Cindric crashed while battling […]

Bubba Wallace Unable To Sustain Qualifying Pace To Secure Playoff Bid

Bubba Wallace put himself in a great position to win his way into the playoffs after winning the pole for Sunday's Southern 500, but after Kyle Larson beat him out of the pits on the first green-flag pit cycle, Wallace was never really a contender for the win afterward and slowly fell through the pack […]

Kyle Larson Outdueled In The End

After beating Bubba Wallace on the first green-flag pit cycle, Kyle Larson led the vast majority of Sunday's Southern 500 until his pit stop on the penultimate caution when Ross Chastain stayed out in a hail-mary attempt to make the playoffs. Although Larson restarted second, he ended up losing out when Chase Briscoe passed Larson, […]

Denny Hamlin Builds Momentum For Playoffs

While Denny Hamlin only finished seventh in Sunday's Southern 500, he ran better than that, as Kyle Larson and Chase Briscoe were probably the only drivers who outran him in the race. Although Hamlin only led when he went extra long on green-flag pit cycles, his advanced numbers were generally quite good, as he ranked […]

Ross Chastain's Hail-Mary Attempt To Make Playoffs Falls Short

After Harrison Burton's win at Daytona, Ross Chastain was always going to be a playoff longshot since Trackhouse Racing has generally lacked winning speed this year. Although Chastain ran outside of the top ten for the first two stages at Darlington, his crew chief Phil Surgen made a gutsy call to have Chastain make three […]

Kyle Busch Comes Up Just Short In Bid To Win His Way Into Playoffs

Despite Richard Childress Racing's significant speed deficit this season, Kyle Busch tried his best to win his way into the playoffs in Sunday's Southern 500. Busch's late decision to take four tires on the seventh caution allowed him to drive up from 10th to second on the final restart, but he stalled out when he […]

Trackhouse Racing's Focus on Ross Chastain Will Likely Doom Daniel Suarez at Darlington

After a dismal stretch in the spring and early summer, Daniel Suarez went on a recent run with three straight top tens surrounding his recent wedding, most notably the arguably most dominant run of his career at Richmond. That streak ended when his car caught fire after a pit stop at Daytona. However, since Suarez […]

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.'s Increased Crashing Will Probably Hurt Him at Darlington

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. failed to post a time in qualifying after a practice crash and will start 36th in this evening's Southern 500. Stenhouse has never had much success at Darlington, only posting a single top ten in the 2022 spring race, the first Cup Series Darlington race with the Next Gen car. Although he […]

Zane Smith's Uptick in Performance Is Less Than It Seems

Although Zane Smith has had a slight uptick in performance in recent weeks, it is more because he has been extremely lucky in overtime finishes than because he is running much better. Although Smith has finished 17th or better in five of the last seven races due to solid racecraft, he has only had one […]

John Hunter Nemechek Getting Faster, but Still Crashes Too Much

John Hunter Nemechek earned his first top ten in the NASCAR Cup Series in only his eighth start at Darlington in 2020, but that came with the old Gen 6 car, but his other three Darlington starts have all resulted in finishes of 30th or worse as he has consistently struggled to adapt to the […]

Corey LaJoie Can Run Well at Darlington if He Stops Overdriving

Although he was again drastically overshadowed by his teammate Carson Hocevar's second place qualifying run (the best in Spire Motorsports history), Corey LaJoie still qualified a decent 19th for this evening's Southern 500. Historically, this tended to be one of LaJoie's best tracks as his 15th-place finish in the 2021 Southern 500 was one of […]

Daniel Hemric Too Slow to Contend at Darlington

Daniel Hemric has a lackluster record at Darlington even relative to his own usual performance. In four Darlington starts, he has never finished better than 23rd or posted an average running position better than 24th with two DNFs in four starts. Hemric has admittedly been a rather clean driver this season with only ten incidents […]

Shane van Gisbergen's Strong Xfinity Series Run Means Little for Southern 500

Shane van Gisbergen had arguably his best oval performance in yesterday's NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Darlington. Although the race was marred by a spinout of Brandon Jones to end Race 1, SVG rallied to finish seventh and even passed Chase Elliott on track late in Stage 3 before the final caution. However, the Kaulig […]

Austin Dillon Must Win-and-In Again After Playoff Bid Revoked

After Austin Dillon's appeal of the revocation of his playoff bid was denied a second time, Dillon is once again in a position where he needs to win to stand any chance of making the playoffs. Although he has never led a lap at Darlington in his career, this was actually one of Dillon's best […]

Austin Cindric Seldom a Contender at Darlington

Although Austin Cindric has finished all five of his races at Darlington, he has never significantly contended with a best finish of 16th and a best average running position of 15th. Even with the uptick in speed that Team Penske has had over the summer, Cindric still tends to run worse than he qualifies in […]

Kyle Busch Needs to Win to Make Playoffs but Probably Won't

Kyle Busch needs to win tonight's Southern 500 to make the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs for a series-best twelfth consecutive time, but it seems rather unlikely. Busch has won at Darlington in the Cup Series, but it was way back in 2008. He has contended to win several other Cup Series races there, most recently […]

Harrison Burton Unlikely to Duplicate Daytona Drive

Although Harrison Burton delivered the Wood Brothers' 100th win in last weekend's Daytona 500, don't expect Burton to repeat the feat in this evening's Southern 500. Although Burton did finish sixth in the 2023 spring race at Darlington, that was Burton's only ever top ten finish on an unrestricted intermediate track. While it's likely that […]

Cody Ware Matches Best Finish for Father's Team

Rick Ware Racing has rarely had the speed to compete for top ten finishes (although Justin Haley is beginning to change that this year), but they have had a consistent knack for staying out of trouble in Daytona wreckfests and getting good finishes particularly at Daytona, where they have at least placed one car in […]

Harrison Burton's Win Renders Ross Chastain's Playoff Hopes Unlikely

Despite finishing 12th at Daytona, Ross Chastain's worst nightmare came true from a playoffs perspective as not only did he lose points to both Chris Buescher and Bubba Wallace, Harrison Burton's shock win made it far more difficult for Chastain and Wallace to advance to the playoffs as Chastain now sits 27 points behind Buescher […]