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Sean Wrona - RotoBaller

555 articles

I ran the auto racing statistical archive race-database.com from 2007 to 2015 and have been doing advanced auto racing analytics since 2013, mostly on my website Racermetrics. I was generally regarded as the fastest typist in the world throughout the 2010s, being most famous for winning the Ultimate Typing Championship at the South by Southwest Interactive conference in 2010. In 2021, I released my first book, Nerds per Minute: A History of Competitive Typing. I am currently doing research for a second book where I intend to rank the top 1,000 drivers in motorsports history and have built several statistical models to rank drivers across various motorsports series. I have just recently launched a blog at http://seanwrona.substack.com/ where I am releasing one driver capsule a day for my book if you are interested in subscribing. I earned a BA in Economics and an MPS in Applied Statistics from Cornell University in 2007 and 2008 respectively. I also am an expert-rated tournament Scrabble player. In high school, I was the statistician for the Mensa Scrabble-by-Mail Special Interest Group and wrote a 15-20 page column in that group's newsletter every other month. As you can see, I've been at this for a quarter century already.

Articles

Bubba Wallace Scores Third Short Track Top Five of 2024 at Bristol

Bubba Wallace was the highest-finishing of the non-playoff drivers in yesterday's Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol, where he finished third after starting 11th. This continues his run as one of the lowkey best short track drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series this year as he has now posted top fives at each of […]

5 months ago

Daniel Suarez Had Miserable Bristol Race but Still Made Round of 12

Despite having arguably his worst run of the entire 2024 season at Bristol last night, Daniel Suarez still advanced to the Round of 12 in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. Apart from his outlier race at Richmond, Suarez has really struggled on short tracks lately and Bristol was no exception as he started 35th and […]

5 months ago

Joey Logano's Crash Had Little Impact Since He Had Already Advanced to Round of 12

Joey Logano was fortunate to be locked in to the Round of 12 in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs thanks to his win at Atlanta to start the Round of 16 because he spun out shortly before the end of Stage 2 when he apparently checked up while approaching the substantially slower Josh Bilicki, which […]

5 months ago

Chase Elliott Had Nothing for Kyle Larson, but Still Finished Second at Bristol

Although it initially looked like Chase Elliott might struggle last night as he spent most of Stage 1 as the lowest-ranked Hendrick car when he was wedged between the Spire Motorsports cars of Carson Hocevar and Corey LaJoie, he slowly progressed through the field as the race progressed to eventually finish second, a good points […]

5 months ago

Austin Cindric Improbably Qualifies For Round of 12

As expected, Austin Cindric had an uninspiring run at Bristol but he had enough of a cushion over the NASCAR Cup Series playoff bubble drivers to advance to the Round of 12 regardless despite only finishing 13th and scoring no stage points. Although he normally finishes worse than he starts, it was relatively unlikely that […]

5 months ago

Chase Briscoe Recovers from Atlanta Crash to Make Round of 12

Chase Briscoe made an improbable comeback to advance to the Round of 12 in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs despite crashing in the Atlanta race that opened the round. Stewart-Haas Racing is clearly invested in making the most of its sole playoff bid in its final season as Briscoe vastly outperformed all other SHR drivers, […]

5 months ago

Bubba Wallace Has Significantly Improved On Short Tracks This Year

Even though people still tend to associate Bubba Wallace primarily with drafting tracks, one could argue that short tracks are starting to become his actual best track type. His fourth-place finishes at Martinsville and Richmond are his best of the season, he was running in the top five in the spring Richmond race as well […]

5 months ago

Daniel Suarez Unlikely To Run Well But Should Still Be Safe To Advance

Daniel Suarez enters Satuday's Bristol race in a pretty safe position to advance to the Round of 12 in the NASCAR playoffs, as he sits 36 points above the playoff cut line. However, he'll likely lose a lot of points after qualifying 35th at Bristol, which means he is very unlikely to earn stage points […]

5 months ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Used To Be Good At Bristol But Not Lately

In his Roush Fenway Racing days, Bristol was one of Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s best tracks, with six top-10 finishes in a nine-race span, including two second-place finishes, even though he never led there. But he has only had mid-pack speed since his arrival at JTG-Daugherty Racing and his average running positions were mediocre, too, not […]

5 months ago

Joey Logano Likely Giving Up On Bristol To Focus On Round Of 12

Because Joey Logano won the Atlanta race that opened the playoffs and Chris Buescher won at Watkins Glen despite missing the playoffs, Logano is the only driver locked into the Round of 12, which is a good thing for him because he has not been very strong at Bristol lately. Since the 2019 spring event, […]

5 months ago

Daniel Hemric Qualifies Much Better Than Usual At Bristol

Even though Daniel Hemric has been the second-slowest full-time driver in the NASCAR Cup Series this year ahead of only Harrison Burton, he has been good at finishing races, so he is still ahead of three drivers in points that have been faster, and he does have a knack for usually finishing better than he […]

5 months ago

Kaz Grala Solid In March Bristol Race, But That Likely Means Little

Kaz Grala has only made one Bristol start in the NASCAR Cup Series in this year's March race, where he finished 19th, but it's hard to draw any conclusions from that race since it was unlike any short track race in NASCAR history. It seems unlikely that this evening's race will be similar to the […]

5 months ago

Noah Gragson Unlikely To Contend As Stewart-Haas Racing Focuses On Chase Briscoe

Although Noah Gragson has won twice at Bristol in the NASCAR Xfinity Series, he finished a mere 34th in his NASCAR Cup Series debut there and didn't run much better with an average running position of 30th. Even though the Stewart-Haas Racing cars have tended to have more speed on short tracks than elsewhere, he […]

5 months ago

Austin Dillon Unlikely To Repeat Richmond Feat

Despite the fact Austin Dillon earned a dubious win at Richmond in August, don't expect a repeat performance at Bristol on Saturday evening, as apart from Dillon's Richmond win, the Richard Childress Racing cars have tended to be very slow on short tracks, and he qualified a miserable 30th, his second-worst starting position at the […]

5 months ago

Austin Cindric Not Strong At Bristol But Should Still Advance

Although Austin Cindric's last-lap crash across the finish line with A.J. Allmendinger in the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Bristol was one of his most memorable moments, he has seldom contended there at the NASCAR Cup Series level. He has never finished better than five laps down or posted an average running position better […]

5 months ago

Harrison Burton Looks Toward 2025 As Next Year's Deal Is Announced

On Friday, it was announced that Harrison Burton would be driving for AM Racing in the NASCAR Xfinity Series in 2025, so now Burton is officially a lame-duck driver in the NASCAR Cup Series, and it seems unlikely he will race there full time again. Given his lame-duck status and given the fact that his […]

5 months ago

Chase Briscoe Likely To Advance To Round Of 12 After Strong Qualifying Run

Although it initially looked like Chase Briscoe's crash at Atlanta would take him out of contention for making the Round of 12, he unexpectedly got a better finish than any of the other playoff contenders at Watkins Glen while also tying for the most points in that race, which placed him tied for 11th with […]

5 months ago

Daniel Suarez Likely Safe In Playoffs After Stage-Point Gamble

Daniel Suarez was one of several playoff contenders who chose to go for stage points at Watkins Glen rather than maximizing his odds of winning. Although he qualified eighth and ran in the top ten for the entire first stage (ultimately finishing fourth in the stage), he and all the other drivers who pitted during […]

5 months ago

Brad Keselowski Struggles As Driver But Wins As Owner At Watkins Glen

Brad Keselowski has mightily struggled on road courses for the past few years, and Sunday's Watkins Glen race was no exception. After a poor qualifying run and two penalties for speeding and a loose tire, Keselowski's team still made an aggressive strategy play in Stage 3 to go extra long on his final set of […]

5 months ago

Austin Cindric Beats Most Playoff Drivers In Second Straight 10th-Place Finish

Austin Cindric backed up his 10th-place finish at Atlanta with another at Watkins Glen on Sunday, placing him three points behind Christopher Bell for the playoff points lead. Although two 10th-place finishes would normally be nowhere near the points lead, he had the great fortune that most of the other playoff contenders either crashed or […]

5 months ago

Ross Chastain's Dominant Run Ultimately Foiled By Stage 2 Caution

Although Ross Chastain has surprisingly lacked speed for most of the season, he had his best run of the year in Sunday's Watkins Glen race. Chastain is not normally a great qualifier, so his pole indicated that he would probably be a significant race contender. He dominated the first two stages and led 51 laps, […]

5 months ago

Alex Bowman's Stage-Point Play Costs Him But Helps His Playoff Position

Although Alex Bowman's fourth-place starting position at Watkins Glen matched his best of the season, he was one of many drivers who elected to go for stage points at the end of Stage 1 even if it took him out of the race for the win later. Bowman remained in fourth for the entirety of […]

5 months ago

Ryan Blaney Likely Safe To Advance In Playoffs Despite Lap 1 Crash

Ryan Blaney, who entered Sunday's Go Bowling at the Glen as the playoff points leader, crashed and finished last in an opening-lap crash triggered when Corey LaJoie spun out Kyle Busch. While trying to weave his way through the wrecked cars, he was lightly grazed on the door by John Hunter Nemechek. Although it looked […]

5 months ago

Bubba Wallace Improving On Road Courses But Likely Won't Contend At Watkins Glen

Road courses have always been Bubba Wallace's Achilles heel in the NASCAR Cup Series, as he has only achieved one top-five and two top-10 finishes in 30 road-course starts, with those coming on the Indianapolis and Charlotte rovals that are quite different from a natural road course like Watkins Glen. Having said that, he's definitely […]

5 months ago

Daniel Suarez's Momentum And Watkins Glen Record Bode Well For Playoffs

Although Daniel Suarez is not a lock to advance in the playoffs by any means, it's looking pretty good for him despite how slow he was for most of the season. His second-place finish at Atlanta put him 22 points above the cutline and now he is going to Watkins Glen, where he starts eighth […]

5 months ago

Juan Pablo Montoya Returns To NASCAR But Is Well Past His Prime

Juan Pablo Montoya makes his return to the NASCAR Cup Series for the first time in a decade at Watkins Glen, which brought a lot of renewed attention to his career and legacy. Although many ignorant fans reduced his career to little more than crashing into a jet dryer in the 2012 Daytona 500, it's […]

5 months ago

Road Courses A Low-Key Strength For Corey LaJoie

Although Corey LaJoie has caught more heat for his performance than any driver in a long time, road courses have been one of the sole bright spots for LaJoie this year as he gave Spire Motorsports its then-best qualifying run of fifth at Circuit of the Americas and scored his best-ever driver rating on a […]

5 months ago

Brad Keselowski In Danger Of Missing The Round Of 12

Brad Keselowski's season has been fairly underrated as he currently leads the NASCAR Cup Series in pass differential with 363, which is not something you would likely deduce by the eye test. However, even though he's probably been a top 12 this season, his hopes of advancing to the Round of 12 do not look […]

5 months ago

Road Courses Remain Erik Jones' Achilles Heel

Erik Jones has had a fairly disastrous 2024 season, as he has failed to lead a lap, and his only top-10 finish came 27 races ago in the Daytona 500. Don't expect that to change at Watkins Glen, where Jones starts 25th. Although he did have two top-five finishes there with Joe Gibbs Racing, since […]

5 months ago

Carson Hocevar Qualifies Poorly But Should Deliver Another Solid Finish

Carson Hocevar looks poised to win the NASCAR Cup Series Rookie of the Year battle even though Josh Berry has had a faster car mainly because Berry has been the most crash-prone driver on the circuit while Hocevar has been surprisingly clean. He has been delivering consistent finishes with clocklike regularity as he has only […]

5 months ago

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