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Sean Wrona - RotoBaller

708 articles

I ran the auto racing statistical archive race-database.com from 2007 to 2015 and have been doing advanced auto racing analytics since 2013, mostly on my website Racermetrics. I was generally regarded as the fastest typist in the world throughout the 2010s, being most famous for winning the Ultimate Typing Championship at the South by Southwest Interactive conference in 2010. In 2021, I released my first book, Nerds per Minute: A History of Competitive Typing. I am currently doing research for a second book where I intend to rank the top 1,000 drivers in motorsports history and have built several statistical models to rank drivers across various motorsports series. I have just recently launched a blog at http://seanwrona.substack.com/ where I am releasing one driver capsule a day for my book if you are interested in subscribing. I earned a BA in Economics and an MPS in Applied Statistics from Cornell University in 2007 and 2008 respectively. I also am an expert-rated tournament Scrabble player. In high school, I was the statistician for the Mensa Scrabble-by-Mail Special Interest Group and wrote a 15-20 page column in that group's newsletter every other month. As you can see, I've been at this for a quarter century already.

Articles

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Recovers From Causing Daytona Big One To Finish Fifth At Atlanta

After embarrassing himself by triggering the first Big One in the Daytona 500 a week ago, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. recovered to finish fifth at Atlanta despite qualifying a miserable 34th. He never led the race, and his average running position of 18th wasn't stellar, but he led the field with a pass differential of 59 […]


Carson Hocevar Earns Best Career Finish

Carson Hocevar earned his best career finish in the NASCAR Cup Series at Atlanta on Sunday when he finished second from a 26th-place starting spot. After choosing not to fight for the lead in previous drafting-track races in an attempt to avoid crashing, Hocevar adjusted his strategy and fought for the lead this time, but […]


Despite Bubba Wallace's Drafting Record, He's Been Surprisingly Mediocre At Atlanta

Bubba Wallace remains one of the best drafters in the Cup Series even though he tends to finish worse than he runs. Wallace qualified 14th for today's Ambetter Health 300 and was significantly faster than all other Toyota drivers in a qualifying session where Ford drivers claimed 10 of the top 11 spots. When considering […]


Chris Buescher Not Dominant Enough At Atlanta To Maximize DFS Value

Chris Buescher qualified eighth as the fastest of the three RFK Racing drivers for Sunday's Ambetter Health 300. He has a history of being a pretty good drafter, but not an elite one. Although his record at Daytona is much stronger than his record at Atlanta, he did lead 39 laps in the 2023 summer […]


Brad Keselowski Could Contend For Atlanta Win

Brad Keselowski has won twice previously at Atlanta, but that came in the era when he drove for Roger Penske and it was a traditional 1.5-mile track before it was turned into a drafting race. Nonetheless, Keselowski has a history of being one of the best drafters in the Cup Series. In the 2023 winter […]


Chase Briscoe Loses Considerable Speed After Daytona Penalty

Despite the speed the Toyotas frequently showed during speedweeks, they had a miserable showing in Saturday's Atlanta qualifying as this year's Daytona 500 polesitter only qualified 25th, although Chase Briscoe still outqualified all three of his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates. Despite mostly avoiding the last-lap Big One he caused in the Daytona 500 en route […]


Despite Strong Qualifying Run, Josh Berry Likely Won't Contend At Atlanta

Josh Berry qualified third for Sunday's Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta in a lockout of the first two rows of qualifying for Team Penske and its Wood Brothers Racing satellite. Berry has not shown much on drafting tracks yet, as his average finish at Atlanta is only 25th, but admittedly his No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing […]


After Daytona Flip, Ryan Preece Likely To Focus On Finishing At Atlanta

Although Ryan Preece has earned six of his 16 career top-10 finishes on drafting tracks, most of those came in the Gen-6 era of NASCAR, as he hasn't been as fast on these tracks since his return to the NASCAR Cup Series than he was with JTG Daugherty Racing. Atlanta was also his worst on […]


Erik Jones Looks Faster Than In 2024, So He Could Be A Valuable DFS Option

Erik Jones on paper doesn't look like a valuable option for Sunday's Atlanta race as he qualified 28th, and the Toyotas seem to have substantially less speed than they did in the Daytona 500. Nonetheless, Jones remains one of the strongest drafters in the series, and his near miss in the Duel race suggests he […]


Switch to Spire Motorsports Ends Michael McDowell's Speed On Superspeedways

When Michael McDowell left Front Row Motorsports to go to Spire Motorsports, it pretty much instantly ended his run of dominance in drafting track qualifying as Spire's Chevies are significantly slower than FRM's Fords were last year. In fact, Spire seemed to be arguably the slowest multi-car chartered team in the Daytona 500 as the […]


After Leading Most Laps In Last Year's Race, Todd Gilliland Looks To Finish The Job

Although Todd Gilliland performed slightly worse than expected in the Daytona 500, he now returns to the site of his greatest race last year where he led a career-best 58 laps before suffering minor damage in a crash late in the race, which relegated him to a 26th-place finish. It seems like his Front Row […]


Riley Herbst's Inexperience Makes Atlanta A Big Question Mark

Despite his relative inexperience, rookie Riley Herbst ran unexpectedly well in last weekend's Daytona 500 as he was battling for fourth until he spun out as he took the white flag. His spinout did enable him to miss the race-deciding wreck later that lap, but nonetheless relegated him to a 17th-place finish. However, the Toyotas […]


Zane Smith Benefiting From Front Row Motorsports Speed

Although Front Row Motorsports has not been as dominant in drafting-track qualifying this year as Michael McDowell was last year, all three FRM cars were still very fast in qualifying, as Zane Smith qualified seventh amidst a phalanx of Fords. However, even though he grew much more consistent in the second half of his rookie […]


After Surprise Daytona Run, Cole Custer Likely To Outperform Past Results At Atlanta

After unexpectedly battling for the win in the Daytona 500, Cole Custer starts 23rd at Atlanta, considerably worse than most of the other Ford drivers in a race Ford looks poised to dominate. Although he hasn't had a very strong finishing record on drafting tracks in general in the NASCAR Cup Series, his speed last […]


Too Few Cars Will Crash For J.J. Yeley To Get A Good Finish At Atlanta

J.J. Yeley qualified last for Sunday's race at Atlanta with a qualifying time over 1.1 seconds behind pole-sitter Ryan Blaney and 0.3 seconds behind the next-slowest driver B.J. McLeod. Although some people might see value in adding Yeley to DFS lineups because he could theoretically gain positions in the field, that would only likely happen […]


Denny Hamlin Fights For The Win But Gets Eliminated In Last-Lap Crash

Denny Hamlin had a rather anonymous run for most of Sunday's Daytona 500 as it seemed like the Toyotas were saving fuel for most of the event before they made their presence known in Stage 3. Nonetheless, Hamlin patiently worked through the field and took the lead with six laps to go before Austin Cindric […]


Austin Cindric Has Best Run At Daytona 500 Until Last-Lap Crash

Austin Cindric probably had the best run in Sunday's Daytona 500, leading 59 laps, spending 145 laps in the top five, and posting an average running position of 5.72, each of which led the field. Although it looked like his teammate Joey Logano had the measure of him in Stage 1, Cindric took charge in […]


Justin Allgaier Earns First Top-10 Finish Since 2015

Even though Justin Allgaier caused three crashes in Saturday's NASCAR Xfinity Series race, he managed to keep it clean and evaded all the wrecks in the Daytona 500 to earn an unexpected ninth-place finish -- his best in a NASCAR Cup Series race since finishing eighth at Bristol in 2015 and only his second top-10 […]


Martin Truex Jr.'s Sour Luck Continues With Early Daytona 500 Crash

Martin Truex Jr.'s bad luck from 2024 continued into 2025 as he was taken out in the Daytona 500 through no fault of his own when he was involed in a crash at the start of Stage 2 when Joey Logano could not get up to speed. This caused the entire outside lane to check […]


Helio Castroneves Eliminated From Daytona 500 In Crash With Teammate

Four-time Indy 500 winner Hélio Castroneves was eliminated from his first Daytona 500 start after leader Joey Logano could not get back up to speed at the start of Stage 2 due to a paper bag in his grille, which stacked up the outside line and resulted in a multi-car pileup when John Hunter Nemechek […]


Ross Chastain Has A Real Shot Of Winning But Should Be Avoided For DFS

Ross Chastain came oh so close to winning last year's Daytona 500 as he attempted a pass on leader William Byron and was alongside coming to the white flag just as Corey LaJoie bumped Austin Cindric into Chastain, spinning out both drivers and helping cost Chastain a playoff bid. Nonetheless, the Trackhouse Racing cars definitely […]


Chris Buescher Undervalued For The Win At Daytona

Chris Buescher starts sixth in Sunday's Daytona 500 after finishing third in the second Duel race. He significantly contented to win that event, as Austin Cindric made his final pass for the win with two laps remaining. Considering the fact that Buescher won here in 2023 in addition to the speed he showed in the […]


William Byron Undervalued For The Win But Should Be Avoided For DFS

William Byron's odds of winning are placed at only 17-1 at DraftKings, surprisingly ranking ninth in odds despite winning last year's Daytona 500, along with three other drafting-track races, and starting fifth in Sunday's race. His odds are probably lower than you'd expect because the Chevies in general did not seem to be as fast […]


Ricky Stenhouse Jr. A Very Worthy Daytona Bet

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. may have won the 2023 Daytona 500, the last drafting-track race at Talladega, and both Talladega races in 2017, but he sure has not done a whole lot else in recent years. Nonetheless, his knack for winning these sorts of races, including literally the last race on this track type, suggests he […]


Austin Dillon Unlikely To Contend At Daytona After Justin Alexander's Departure

Austin Dillon has had a knack for pulling off inexplicable wins at times, particularly on plate tracks after wrecking the leader, but don't count on history repeating itself in Sunday's Daytona 500. For one thing, it seems like lately he only runs well when Justin Alexander is his crew chief, and he has been replaced […]


Jimmie Johnson Won't Run Well Enough To Be Worthy Of DFS Play

After running out of fuel in his second Duel race, two-time Daytona 500 winner Jimmie Johnson fell from running as high as second to an eventual 19th-place finish. As a result, he starts 40th and next-to-last in Sunday's race as he was forced to advance to the Daytona 500 by virtue of his qualifying position […]


Ryan Preece Probably Won't Contend At Daytona 500

Ryan Preece makes his debut with RFK Racing in Sunday's Daytona 500, starting from the 27th position but he does seem to have speed as he qualified third in single-car qualifying and his RFK teammates both led in the second Duel race with Chris Buescher significantly contending for the win. As a result, Preece is […]


Michael McDowell Likely To Perform Worse At Daytona This Year

Although Michael McDowell has a reputation as a drafting expert because of his 2021 Daytona 500 win, the fact that he has eight top-10 finishes there and no more than four on any other track make him one to avoid this year. His actual finishing record at Daytona has not been so hot, as he […]


Justin Allgaier Drastically Overrated By All DraftKings Metrics

Justin Allgaier is making JR Motorsports' debut in the NASCAR Cup Series in Sunday's Daytona 500 after a late charge to finish ninth in the first Duel race. However, he seems drastically overvalued everywhere on DraftKings, where he is given 25-1 odds to win -- equal with Ross Chastain and Chris Buescher, who are both […]


Todd Gilliland Overvalued At Daytona 500

Although many people expected Todd Gilliland to be a significant contender for the Daytona 500 pole, considering how many poles his ex-teammate Michael McDowell won in his No. 34 car last year, he only qualified 14th before both starting and finishing seventh in the second Duel race, where he was not really much of a […]


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