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Sean Wrona - RotoBaller

657 articles

I ran the auto racing statistical archive race-database.com from 2007 to 2015 and have been doing advanced auto racing analytics since 2013, mostly on my website Racermetrics. I was generally regarded as the fastest typist in the world throughout the 2010s, being most famous for winning the Ultimate Typing Championship at the South by Southwest Interactive conference in 2010. In 2021, I released my first book, Nerds per Minute: A History of Competitive Typing. I am currently doing research for a second book where I intend to rank the top 1,000 drivers in motorsports history and have built several statistical models to rank drivers across various motorsports series. I have just recently launched a blog at http://seanwrona.substack.com/ where I am releasing one driver capsule a day for my book if you are interested in subscribing. I earned a BA in Economics and an MPS in Applied Statistics from Cornell University in 2007 and 2008 respectively. I also am an expert-rated tournament Scrabble player. In high school, I was the statistician for the Mensa Scrabble-by-Mail Special Interest Group and wrote a 15-20 page column in that group's newsletter every other month. As you can see, I've been at this for a quarter century already.

Articles

Noah Gragson Closes Out Stewart-Haas Racing Career With Average Qualifying Run

Noah Gragson qualified 21st for Stewart-Haas Racing's last ever race at Phoenix on Sunday. He was actually pretty fast there in the spring event as he started seventh, finished 12th, matched his best average running position of the season, and had his fifth-best driver rating. Nonetheless, it seems like he's gone through the motions somewhat […]

5 months ago

Todd Gilliland Lacks Speed This Weekend

Todd Gilliland qualified a lackluster 32nd in a race where his outgoing Front Row Motorsports teammate Michael McDowell qualified an even worse 35th. Gilliland had speed in the March event at Phoenix, where he led the only 14 laps for a non-Toyota driver after long-pitting, although he faded to 17th at the end. Besides that […]

5 months ago

Austin Dillon Sometimes Fast On Short Tracks, But Not At Phoenix

Austin Dillon's only good runs seem to happen at shorter ovals these days, such as his sixth-place finish at Gateway, his win at Richmond, and last week's seventh-place finish at Martinsville, although he was stripped of 50 points in that race for following Chevrolet's manufacturer orders to stay behind William Byron to help him advance […]

5 months ago

Phoenix Is Kyle Busch's Last Chance To Extend Winning-Season Streak

Sunday's race at Phoenix marks Kyle Busch's last chance to extend his record streak of 19 consecutive winning seasons in the NASCAR Cup Series to 20. However, the odds of him doing that seem astronomically remote given that he starts 25th, and the Richard Childress Racing cars have not seemed to have winning speed on […]

5 months ago

Jeb Burton Returns To Cup Series With Dangerously Slow Team AmeriVet

Jeb Burton surprisingly makes his return to NASCAR Cup Series action with Team AmeriVet, which has not started a race since Ty Dillon drove for them in the Coca-Cola 600. Burton's No. 50 team failed inspection four times, was not allowed to set a qualifying time, and will have to serve a stop-and-go penalty under […]

5 months ago

Alex Bowman Has Rarely Shined At Phoenix Since His 2016 Breakout

Alex Bowman first attracted significant attention in the NASCAR Cup Series at Phoenix in 2016 when he won the pole and led 194 laps en route to a sixth-place finish. That race now stands out as an extremely bizarre outlier in his career as not only does that remain his highest laps led count, he […]

5 months ago

Speeding Penalty Foils Martin Truex Jr.'s Last Realistic Shot At Winning

Since Phoenix isn't really one of Martin Truex Jr.'s best tracks while Martinsville is, Sunday likely marked Truex's last chance to win in the NASCAR Cup Series. Although he won the pole and led the first 41 laps of the race, he sped on his first pit stop before later being involved in a crash […]

5 months ago

Denny Hamlin Fails To Advance To Championship 4 But Runs Well

After crashing in practice and not registering a qualifying time, Denny Hamlin's odds of advancing to the Championship 4 in the NASCAR playoffs were unbelievably remote entering the race, especially since he was below the playoff cut line and would likely have to win. Although his car was sufficiently repaired and he had speed, he […]

5 months ago

Shane van Gisbergen Earns Best Oval Finish at Martinsville

Shane van Gisbergen earned his best-ever oval finish in the NASCAR Cup Series in Sunday's race at Martinsville. Although he still didn't run very well since his average running position was 25th and he only had the 21st-best driver rating in a race where his teammate Daniel Hemric honestly ran better, he stayed out of […]

5 months ago

William Byron Tentatively In Championship 4 Pending Ruling On Manufacturer Orders

William Byron didn't necessarily need to win at Martinsville to advance to the Championship 4, but if a driver below the cutline won, Byron needed to overcome a 22-point deficit to Christopher Bell, which seemed unlikely. Byron ran well and led 51 laps but got overtaken by Kyle Larson on the lap 406 restart and […]

5 months ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Slow To Contend At Martinsville

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has had a low-key bad season in the NASCAR Cup Series despite his win at Talladega, and it's hard to envision that changing at Martinsville, a track where he starts 28th, has never led a lap, and has never finished better than eighth. About the only good thing about Stenhouse's career at […]

5 months ago

John Hunter Nemechek May Be More Motivated At Martinsville If His Ride Is At Stake

There are unconfirmed rumors swirling that John Hunter Nemechek will be replaced for 2025 even though he is technically still signed for next year. While Corey Heim's Craftsman Truck Series success does suggest this could be a real possibility, the sources of the rumors don't seem very reliable. If Nemechek is on the hotseat, however, […]

5 months ago

Short Tracks Remain Michael McDowell's Achilles Heel

Although Michael McDowell is fast on drafting tracks and road courses, short tracks are consistently his Achilles heel. Darlington, Bristol, and Martinsville are the only tracks that have been on the schedule his entire career where he has not led a lap, and of those Martinsville is the only track where he has never earned […]

5 months ago

Corey LaJoie Unexpectedly Fast In Practice At Martinsville

Corey LaJoie first attracted serious attention when he feuded with Denny Hamlin in the spring of 2020 and argued that he would outrun Hamlin in his No. 11 car before proceeding to outrun him in the next race at Martinsville, widely regarded to be Hamlin's best track. Now that the entire fanbase has turned against […]

5 months ago

Erik Jones Ran Well At Martinsville In The Spring

Erik Jones has had a season to forget with only two top-10 finishes in drafting races where he only finished well because he avoided big crashes. Nonetheless, the spring Martinsville race was arguably his best run of the season, as he finished 12th (better than on any non-drafting oval this season) and also had his […]

5 months ago

Daniel Hemric Qualifying Better But Still Slow In Races

As Daniel Hemric acclimates himself more to the Next Gen chassis, he does seem to be qualifying better in the second half of the season than he did in the first, but it hasn't led to much better race performance. Martinsville marks a good example, as he qualified 15th for today's race, which is better […]

5 months ago

Martinsville A Mediocre Track For Justin Haley

Justin Haley starts 30th at Martinsville, which is definitely not one of his better tracks. In seven previous races, he has never finished 27th and has never finished fewer than two laps down. Although Spire Motorsports is admittedly a lot faster now than it was in 2021 when he previously drove for the team, Spire […]

5 months ago

Lame-Duck Noah Gragson Seems Anonymous Lately

Although Noah Gragson looked like he was building to something in the first half of the season, he has almost been entirely invisible in the second half, particularly after it became clear that Stewart-Haas Racing would not be returning in its current form in 2025. Since he has already signed with Front Row Motorsports for […]

5 months ago

Austin Dillon Qualifies Well At Martinsville

Although Austin Dillon utilized the dirtiest move of the year to win at Richmond, he has had some solid runs at Martinsville in the past and is starting 10th. Don't count on him seriously contending in Sunday's race, though. While he did finish third in the 2022 spring race with the Next Gen chassis and […]

5 months ago

Ross Chastain Unlikely To Make The Highlight Reels At Martinsville This Time

Ross Chastain became one of the closest things to a household name among millennial NASCAR drivers when his wall ride on the last lap at Martinsville two years ago unexpectedly locked himself into the Championship 4. After having missed the playoffs this year, he has much lower stakes this time. However, Trackhouse Racing has had […]

5 months ago

Kyle Busch Looks To Extend Consecutive Winning Seasons Streak

Since Kyle Busch is 114 points behind Ross Chastain for 19th and 86 points ahead of Carson Hocevar for 20th in points, he essentially has nothing at stake besides winning, but he will definitely want to salvage his season by extending his record streak of consecutive winning seasons to 20. Busch has won twice at […]

5 months ago

Christopher Bell Looks To Cement Third Straight Championship 4 Bid

Christopher Bell, the only driver to make the Championship 4 round of the NASCAR Playoffs in both 2022 and 2023, looks to become the first driver since Chase Elliott in 2020-2022 to make the Championship 4 three consecutive years. He is probably going to do it since he is 29 points above Kyle Larson for […]

5 months ago

Joey Logano Intentionally Sleepwalked Through Homestead to Focus on Phoenix

Just like in 2022, Joey Logano had a subpar day at Homestead by design after locking himself into the Championship 4 at Las Vegas. Logano's team is obviously primarily focused on going all in on Phoenix to maximize his chances for a championship, a strategy which proved effective that year. As a result, he went […]

5 months ago

Denny Hamlin Advances to Championship 4 as Owner but Not as Driver

Denny Hamlin had a near-miss in yesterday's Homestead race that greatly diminishes his chances of making the Championship Four at Phoenix. He ultimately finished third despite taking the lead from his driver Tyler Reddick on the final restart with seven laps remaining. On the penultimate lap, Ryan Blaney took the lead from Hamlin as Reddick […]

5 months ago

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. Earns Best Qualifying Run in Over a Year at Homestead

Despite the fact that Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is currently having one of the slowest seasons of his career, he shocked the world with a fifth-place qualifying run yesterday at Homestead, his best since the spring Darlington race of 2023 when he qualified third. However, Homestead has not been a good track for him as in […]

5 months ago

Expect Zane Smith's Steady Consistency to Continue at Homestead

Although Zane Smith had a miserable first half of the season, he has definitely picked it up in the second half even if all his top ten finishes came in races where he was running considerably worse than that. Astonishingly, he actually has a better average finish than Joey Logano over the second half of […]

5 months ago

Both Ryan Preece and Stewart-Haas Racing Seem Ill-Suited to Intermediates

In a qualifying session where all the Fords looked miserable, lame-duck Stewart-Haas Racing driver Ryan Preece qualified 35th at Homestead and was the slowest full-time Ford driver. The SHR cars are typically slow on flat 1.5-mile ovals and Preece is arguably slower still as in 90 races on tracks between 1 and 2 miles in […]

5 months ago

Michael McDowell Couldn't Overcome Ford's Intermediate Speed Deficit in Homestead Qualifying

Despite winning a season-high six poles thanks to his dominant qualifying on drafting tracks, McDowell has definitely been hit-or-miss in terms of qualifying everywhere else, as he only qualified 24th for today's Homestead race, the worst since the Southern 500. McDowell hasn't factored much in the oval races where he didn't win the pole, and […]

5 months ago

Joey Logano's Team Likely to Ignore Homestead to Focus on Phoenix

After Joey Logano locked himself into the playoffs by winning last weekend's race at Las Vegas, it seems likely that his No. 22 team will likely be entirely focused on Phoenix likely at the expense of the next two races. When he won at Las Vegas to lock himself into the Championship Four in 2022, […]

5 months ago

Carson Hocevar Looks to Clinch Rookie of the Year Award

Carson Hocevar has a chance to wrap up the Rookie of the Year award in today's Homestead race as he leads his fellow rookie Josh Berry by 99 points. If he leaves with a 121-point lead after Homestead, Berry can't catch him. He probably won't clinch the award today, but since the Spire Motorsports cars […]

5 months ago

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