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Sean Wrona - RotoBaller

657 articles

I ran the auto racing statistical archive race-database.com from 2007 to 2015 and have been doing advanced auto racing analytics since 2013, mostly on my website Racermetrics. I was generally regarded as the fastest typist in the world throughout the 2010s, being most famous for winning the Ultimate Typing Championship at the South by Southwest Interactive conference in 2010. In 2021, I released my first book, Nerds per Minute: A History of Competitive Typing. I am currently doing research for a second book where I intend to rank the top 1,000 drivers in motorsports history and have built several statistical models to rank drivers across various motorsports series. I have just recently launched a blog at http://seanwrona.substack.com/ where I am releasing one driver capsule a day for my book if you are interested in subscribing. I earned a BA in Economics and an MPS in Applied Statistics from Cornell University in 2007 and 2008 respectively. I also am an expert-rated tournament Scrabble player. In high school, I was the statistician for the Mensa Scrabble-by-Mail Special Interest Group and wrote a 15-20 page column in that group's newsletter every other month. As you can see, I've been at this for a quarter century already.

Articles

Chris Buescher Undervalued For The Win At Daytona

Chris Buescher starts sixth in Sunday's Daytona 500 after finishing third in the second Duel race. He significantly contented to win that event, as Austin Cindric made his final pass for the win with two laps remaining. Considering the fact that Buescher won here in 2023 in addition to the speed he showed in the […]

1 month ago

William Byron Undervalued For The Win But Should Be Avoided For DFS

William Byron's odds of winning are placed at only 17-1 at DraftKings, surprisingly ranking ninth in odds despite winning last year's Daytona 500, along with three other drafting-track races, and starting fifth in Sunday's race. His odds are probably lower than you'd expect because the Chevies in general did not seem to be as fast […]

1 month ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. A Very Worthy Daytona Bet

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. may have won the 2023 Daytona 500, the last drafting-track race at Talladega, and both Talladega races in 2017, but he sure has not done a whole lot else in recent years. Nonetheless, his knack for winning these sorts of races, including literally the last race on this track type, suggests he […]

1 month ago

Austin Dillon Unlikely To Contend At Daytona After Justin Alexander's Departure

Austin Dillon has had a knack for pulling off inexplicable wins at times, particularly on plate tracks after wrecking the leader, but don't count on history repeating itself in Sunday's Daytona 500. For one thing, it seems like lately he only runs well when Justin Alexander is his crew chief, and he has been replaced […]

1 month ago

Jimmie Johnson Won't Run Well Enough To Be Worthy Of DFS Play

After running out of fuel in his second Duel race, two-time Daytona 500 winner Jimmie Johnson fell from running as high as second to an eventual 19th-place finish. As a result, he starts 40th and next-to-last in Sunday's race as he was forced to advance to the Daytona 500 by virtue of his qualifying position […]

1 month ago

Ryan Preece Probably Won't Contend At Daytona 500

Ryan Preece makes his debut with RFK Racing in Sunday's Daytona 500, starting from the 27th position but he does seem to have speed as he qualified third in single-car qualifying and his RFK teammates both led in the second Duel race with Chris Buescher significantly contending for the win. As a result, Preece is […]

1 month ago

Michael McDowell Likely To Perform Worse At Daytona This Year

Although Michael McDowell has a reputation as a drafting expert because of his 2021 Daytona 500 win, the fact that he has eight top-10 finishes there and no more than four on any other track make him one to avoid this year. His actual finishing record at Daytona has not been so hot, as he […]

1 month ago

Justin Allgaier Drastically Overrated By All DraftKings Metrics

Justin Allgaier is making JR Motorsports' debut in the NASCAR Cup Series in Sunday's Daytona 500 after a late charge to finish ninth in the first Duel race. However, he seems drastically overvalued everywhere on DraftKings, where he is given 25-1 odds to win -- equal with Ross Chastain and Chris Buescher, who are both […]

1 month ago

Todd Gilliland Overvalued At Daytona 500

Although many people expected Todd Gilliland to be a significant contender for the Daytona 500 pole, considering how many poles his ex-teammate Michael McDowell won in his No. 34 car last year, he only qualified 14th before both starting and finishing seventh in the second Duel race, where he was not really much of a […]

1 month ago

Corey LaJoie Not A Good Option For DFS But Might Be A Solid Bet For A Top-10 Finish

Although Corey LaJoie became the butt of jokes after a string of crashes last summer, he is actually quite serviceable at Daytona, especially in the Daytona 500. He has never crashed out of this race in eight previous starts and his average finish of 10.2 over the last five Daytona 500s is actually the best […]

1 month ago

Cole Custer Has Low Expectations But Might Be Worthy Of DFS Play

Upon his return to the NASCAR Cup Series after his Xfinity Series title in 2023, Cole Custer both started and finished 16th in Duel Race 2 and was generally uncompetitive throughout the event. Even with the recent history of Ford dominance on drafting tracks, he isn't worth considering betting on him for the win even […]

1 month ago

Ty Dillon Overachieves This Week

Ty Dillon starts seventh in Sunday's Daytona 500 after finishing third in the first duel race at Daytona. He was directly behind Bubba Wallace on the final lap of the race until he switched lanes to pick up his Kaulig Racing teammate A.J. Allmendinger to attempt to draft around Wallace for the win. Unfortunately, he […]

1 month ago

Martin Truex Jr. Uncompetitive In Duel Race But Still Makes Daytona 500

Martin Truex Jr. had already advanced to the Daytona 500 on the basis of his qualifying time, thereby locking his Tricon Garage entry into the race, but he seldom factored into the first Duel race, where he started 12th, finished 15th, and rarely was anywhere near contention on a night his fellow Toyota drivers like […]

1 month ago

Justin Allgaier Advances To Daytona 500

Although it looked a little precarious for a moment, Justin Allgaier did advance to the Daytona 500 by finishing ninth in the first Duel race, finishing highest among the five non-chartered drivers to give his JR Motorsport team its first start in the NASCAR Cup Series. Although everyone expected him to advance over J.J. Yeley […]

1 month ago

Ty Dillon Surprisingly Battles For The Win In First Duel Race

Although Ty Dillon has always been lightly regarded, he matched his best-ever NASCAR Cup Series finish of third on his full-time debut with Kaulig Racing in Thursday's first Duel race. He has had moments on drafting tracks before and earned both of his top-five finishes in point races at Daytona and Talladega and even earned […]

1 month ago

B.J. McLeod Doesn't Have The Speed To Make The Daytona 500

After selling his charter to Live Fast Motorsports, B.J. McLeod finished 17th in Thursday's second Duel race and suffered his second consecutive DNQ in the Daytona 500, which hardly came as a surprise. Even with the estimated $40 million he received from selling his charter, Live Fast still does not have a great deal of […]

1 month ago

J.J. Yeley Misses Second Straight Daytona 500

Although J.J. Yeley initially looked like a long shot to advance into the Daytona 500, considering he drives for the historically subpar NY Racing Team, Yeley ran surprisingly well in the first duel race as he and Justin Allgaier ran together for large portions of the event and Yeley was even ahead for a while […]

1 month ago

Chase Briscoe Earns Toyota's First Daytona 500 Pole

Chase Briscoe kicked off his Joe Gibbs Racing stint with a bang by unexpectedly winning the pole for Sunday's Daytona 500, earning Toyota's first pole in the Great American Race since the marque entered the NASCAR Cup Series in 2007. Although on the surface this might appear surprising, Briscoe previously won the pole for the […]

1 month ago

Justin Allgaier Attempts To Make JR Motorsports's NASCAR Cup Series Debut

After winning a long-overdue NASCAR Xfinity Championship in 2024 for JR Motorsports, Justin Allgaier was rewarded by getting the opportunity to drive JRM's first-ever NASCAR Cup Series entry for next Sunday's Daytona 500 in the No. 40 car, sponsored for this race by country star Chris Stapleton's Traveller Whiskey brand. Although he only qualified 33rd […]

1 month ago

Jimmie Johnson Outqualifies Teammates To Advance To Daytona 500

Jimmie Johnson clinched a spot in Sunday's Daytona 500 by qualifying 29th in Daytona 500 qualifying on Wednesday evening, which ranked second among drivers for non-chartered teams. Johnson's qualifying run was impressive, as he outqualified both of his full-time drivers Erik Jones and John Hunter Nemechek while tying his Toyota stablemate Bubba Wallace in qualifying, […]

1 month ago

B.J. McLeod Likely Needs Attrition To Make Daytona 500

Although B.J. McLeod missed last year's Daytona 500 after he sold his Live Fast Motorsports charter to Spire Motorsports at the end of the 2023 season, he's trying to qualify for the race again this year, but his odds likely aren't much better. He qualified only 43rd in yesterday's qualifying session and posted by far […]

1 month ago

Competition In First Duel Race Likely Too Stout For Chandler Smith To Make Daytona 500

Although Chandler Smith was undeservedly demoted from the Xfinity Series to the Craftsman Truck Series in 2025, he got another opportunity to enter the Daytona 500 this year but seems unlikely to qualify for the second straight year, particularly after his car chief was ejected when the No. 66 team failed inspection. Now driving for […]

1 month ago

Tyler Reddick Lacks Speed Of Other Championship 4 Contenders But Drives Well

Tyler Reddick finished fourth in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs after finishing sixth in the season finale at Phoenix. He spent most of the race in the back half of the top ten and never really had the speed of even William Byron, let alone Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney, who were the two fastest […]

4 months ago

William Byron Finishes Third In Phoenix Race And Championship

William Byron was arguably lucky to make it to the final round of the NASCAR playoffs at Phoenix on Sunday after Christopher Bell was penalized last week at Martinsville, but he did his best and posed a stout challenge to Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney, the Penske drivers who finished first and second in the […]

4 months ago

Daniel Suarez Once Again Far Off Ross Chastain's Pace At Phoenix

Even though Daniel Suarez made the playoffs and Ross Chastain did not, Suarez has been shockingly slow at times this season and his speed percentile of 39.06 is a massive 27 points off of Chastain's 66.29. This trend continued in Phoenix qualifying yesterday after Suarez qualified 34th while Chastain (who won last year's race) was […]

5 months ago

John Hunter Nemechek Consistently Mediocre At Phoenix

John Hunter Nemechek has been very consistent in his previous races at Phoenix Raceway. Unfortunately, this is an example of how consistency isn't always a good thing. In his four previous NASCAR Cup Series starts at Phoenix, Nemechek has finished between 25th and 27th in all of them and has been nowhere near competitive. His […]

5 months ago

Michael McDowell Matches Worst Qualifying Run Of 2024 At His Home Track

Although he finished the 2024 season as the NASCAR Cup Series pole leader, Michael McDowell's qualifying run in his last race for Front Row Motorsports was quite the opposite as his 35th-place qualifying run matches his worst of the season from the spring Martinsville race. The poor qualifying run is rather puzzling, as McDowell's last […]

5 months ago

Jimmie Johnson Faster Than Usual In Qualifying

Jimmie Johnson is arguably the second-greatest Phoenix driver of all time behind only Kevin Harvick, but all four of his wins came at the height of his championship power run in 2007-2009 and he has not raced there since the 2020 season finale, his last race as a full-time driver where he did manage his […]

5 months ago

Daniel Hemric May Overachieve At Phoenix To Help Land 2025 Offer

Daniel Hemric delivered his all-time career highlight when he won the 2021 NASCAR Xfinity Series championship at Phoenix and scored his only national series win in so doing, but in the NASCAR Cup Series, he hasn't been so hot. Although he has earned two top twenty finishes, he has never finished better than 17th for […]

5 months ago

Justin Haley Earns Best Starting Position At Phoenix

Justin Haley qualified 13th for Sunday's race at Phoenix, beating both of his Spire Motorsports teammates Carson Hocevar and Zane Smith. Although Haley has finished all seven of his previous races at Phoenix, he has only finished better than 24th once, when he finished 17th in the March 2022 event. It is possible that his […]

5 months ago

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Scores His Second Consecutive Top-10 Finish Of 2025 At Homestead
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