Austin Cindric Should Benefit From Increased Ford Speed

Austin Cindric was one of NASCAR's biggest disappointments in 2023, as he followed up a Daytona 500 win and playoff bid as a rookie with only a single top-five and a dismal 24th-place points finish in a year his teammate Ryan Blaney won the title. While Cindric is average, at best, he should perform better […]

Harrison Burton's Mediocrity Will Probably Continue In 2024

Harrison Burton has had a lackluster start to his NASCAR Cup Series career thus far, but at age 23, he's still young enough that he could unexpectedly make a sudden improvement at any point, although that still seems unlikely. The driver who technically drives for the Wood Brothers but drives for what amounts to a […]

Ryan Blaney's Season Likely Hinges On New Ford Mustang's Speed

Ryan Blaney delivered Team Penske its second consecutive NASCAR Cup Series championship at the Phoenix championship race in 2023, but that means very little when it comes to projecting his 2024 performance. Ford is debuting its new Mustang Dark Horse for 2024 and this chassis appears to be sleeker and more aerodynamic than the previous […]

Chris Buescher Had Pit Stop Issues On Sunday

Few people seriously considered the eliminated playoff drivers as contenders for yesterday's event, but the eliminated drivers had other ideas. Not only did Ross Chastain rebuild his reputation with a dominant win outdueling the playoff contenders, but Chris Buescher significantly contended too. Buescher probably had winning speed as he passed Chastain for the lead in […]

Kyle Larson Lost The Championship Because Of Passing Inability

Although Kyle Larson went into the NASCAR Cup Series finale at Phoenix as the championship favorite, he didn't really have the speed to match eventual champion Ryan Blaney or his teammate William Byron for most of the event. All three drivers were extremely close in speed throughout the event with Byron ranking third, Blaney ranking […]

Justin Haley Too Slow At Phoenix To Seriously Contend

Justin Haley has been remarkably consistent at Phoenix in his NASCAR Cup Series career. Unfortunately, that consistency has been on a very low level as he started outside the top 25 in all five of his previous starts. In four races, he finished between 24th and 27th. The lone exception was a 17th in March […]

Kyle Larson Enters Phoenix As Championship Favorite

Oddsmakers favor Kyle Larson to win the NASCAR Cup Series championship at Phoenix Sunday and it's not hard to see why. The driver who won the first race of the Round of 8 went on to win the championship four of the last seven years, including the last two. Larson triumphed here in 2021, so […]

Ryan Preece Might Benefit from Stewart-Haas's Added Emphasis on Phoenix

Although Ryan Preece has been average in the NASCAR Cup Series this year except on short tracks, many pundits consider Phoenix Raceway a springboard for Preece to potentially contend on Sunday. While he never led a lap at the track, Preece did get his best Phoenix finish with a 12th in the March event. Now, […]

Erik Jones Likely To Deliver Best Underdog Performance

Erik Jones suffered a good deal as Legacy Motor Club prepared to switch to Toyota from Chevrolet. Despite this, he vastly outperformed all his teammates including Noah Gragson, Carson Hocevar, and John Hunter Nemechek. All those drivers either announced or likely will have full-time NASCAR Cup rides next season. Additionally, he had a streak of […]

A.J. Allmendinger Lacks Speed In Phoenix Despite Consistency

NASCAR drivers are usually past their prime after age forty, but A.J. Allmendinger is proving to be an arguable exception to this general rule as he has generally had his most consistent NASCAR seasons in recent years. In the races that he and teammate Justin Haley have both finished, Allmendinger has a 19-9 record against […]

Michael McDowell Still May Have Issues In Phoenix

Even though Michael McDowell achieved an unexpected playoff bid and delivered at the Indy road course, Watkins Glen, and Bristol in a very short time span, don't expect him to thrive at Phoenix. Admittedly, he did achieve both his best-ever start and finish in this year's spring Phoenix event, but he has still never had […]

Ricky Stenhouse's Speed Drop Bodes Poorly For Phoenix

Although Ricky Stenhouse's season started off with a bang when he won the Daytona 500 and instantly secured a playoff bid, the figurative wheels came off in the season's second half. He posted only four top ten finishes and 18 laps led. At one point early in the season, Stenhouse was looking like he might […]

Tyler Reddick's Failure To Advance Was Probably Inevitable

Even though Tyler Reddick entered yesterday's Martinsville race ahead of Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex, Jr. in points, he seemed an extreme long shot to advance to the Championship 4 from the get-go. This is because he was rarely ever better than mediocre at Martinsville or paved short tracks in general. Meanwhile, the four drivers […]

Kyle Larson Ran Extremely Well Despite Lack Of Chevy Speed

Although Kyle Larson failed to sweep the Martinsville races this year, he still had a strong run in yesterday's race considering Chevy had one of its worst races of the year. Larson's sixth-place finish was the only top ten scored by a Chevy driver in the event and no Chevy drivers ranked in the top […]

Daniel Suárez Short Track Woes Likely To Continue

Although he had strong runs several times in the Bristol dirt race, Daniel Suárez has really struggled on paved short tracks for his entire Cup Series career. Excluding the Bristol dirt races, he has never finished better than seventh and has only led a career twelve laps on short tracks. While he did qualify second […]

Alex Bowman Unlikely To Rise Up At Martinsville

Alex Bowman scored one of the most memorable wins of his career in the 2021 Martinsville event after spinning Denny Hamlin to win. Unfortunately, he has mostly struggled in the two years since as he has only scored five top ten finishes. Bowman led 58 laps since the spring short track season started and he […]

Joey Logano Not Quite As Strong At Martinsville This Season

Joey Logano is one of the most consistent Martinsville drivers in recent years. He has a current streak of eight consecutive top tens. Also, Logano scored one of his most memorable wins here in 2018 when he knocked Martin Truex, Jr. out to advance to the Championship Four. Logano is more likely to run well […]

Christopher Bell Has A Chance On Sunday At Martinsville

Christopher Bell enters Sunday's Martinsville race as one of the obvious pre-race favorites considering he won last year's event to advance to the Championship Four, is on a strong hot streak with back-to-back top two finishes in the first two races of this round. Bell seems to have the fastest cars as all four Joe […]

Ryan Preece Strong On Short Tracks Despite Mediocrity Elsewhere

Although Ryan Preece has been slower in the NASCAR Cup Series, his modified experience definitely prepared him for NASCAR's short tracks. Preece ranks 6th in short track speed among Cup Series regulars and is the fastest Ford driver, which you could definitely see while watching the races. Preece's only top five came at the summer […]

Ross Chastain Unlikely To Repeat Martinsville Miracle

Ross Chastain made himself a household name in racing circles by way of his wall ride to drive from tenth to fifth on the last lap at last year's Martinsville race, which became fourth when Brad Keselowski was disqualified after the race. While that move will continue to garner abundant media attention, short tracks have […]

Kyle Larson A Favorite But Others Have Urgency

Kyle Larson has already advanced to the Championship 4 by virtue of his win in Las Vegas, so he doesn't need to win at Martinsville tomorrow but he still stands as one of the obvious favorites. In addition to finally winning his first Cup race there in the spring event, he also outqualified all the […]

Poor Stewart-Haas Speed Could Hinder Aric Almirola

Aric Almirola makes what may be his final start on an intermediate track in tomorrow's Homestead race, depending on whether he chooses to retire at the end of the 2023 season or not. However, whether he retires or not, it seems unlikely that he will have a strong run. The Stewart-Haas cars have been miserably […]

Joey Logano Practice Crash Means Big Trouble

After a crash in Saturday morning practice, Joey Logano will be starting last in tomorrow's Homestead race, which is not a good sign for him since it seems that with the Next Gen car. Backup cars have been nowhere near as competitive as they were with previous generations of cars. Judging by Chase Elliott having […]

Daniel Suárez’s Intermediate Mediocrity Likely To Continue At Homestead

Although Daniel Suárez had a lot of speed on intermediate superspeedways including making quite a few passes for the lead on those tracks in 2022, they have been mediocre for him in 2023 . Now, he ranks only 17th in intermediate speed for the season, and he seems to have slowed as the season progressed […]

Kaulig Instability May Hinder A.J. Allmendinger's Homestead Run

Although A.J. Allmendinger earned a dominant win at the Charlotte roval two weeks ago, he's unlikely to be a significant contender in tomorrow's Homestead race. Allmendinger failed to score a top ten finish on a non-drafting track of 1.5 miles or greater this season and he and teammate Justin Haley only qualified 25th and 27th […]

Kevin Harvick Has Place Differential Potential But Little Else

Kevin Harvick makes his final start at Homestead-Miami Speedway tomorrow and his sponsor Mobil 1 has commemorated the event by naming the race the 4EVER 400 to celebrate his retirement tour. However, the odds of Harvick being a significant race factor seem remote. In the last five races on intermediate tracks at Atlanta, Michigan, Kansas, […]

Chris Buescher's Playoff Hopes May Be In Trouble

Chris Buescher became the first Roush driver to advance to the Round of 8 since Carl Edwards in 2014, but his good fortune will likely end this round. Despite his win at Michigan, Buescher has significantly lacked speed on intermediate tracks compared to the other drivers in the Round of 8. The Fords lag in […]

Ryan Blaney Still May Not Advance Despite Overturning of Disqualification

Although Ryan Blaney's disqualification was overturned only a few hours after my previous post, The Team Penske driver making the championship round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs still seems unlikely unless he wins at Martinsville because the Ford teams still lack the speed of the Toyotas and Chevies on intermediate tracks and he still […]

Tyler Reddick Still Alive But Might Need Homestead Win

Tyler Reddick is still alive in the playoffs after a seventh-place finish at Las Vegas and he only lost ground to Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell. However, Larson and Bell were the two drivers closest to Reddick in points, so he lost ground on the cutline and now sits fifteen points below it. He has […]

Ryan Blaney’s Playoffs Likely Over After Disqualification

After Ryan Blaney was disqualified for his team failing to meet NASCAR's specification for damper height, he was stripped of his sixth-place finish. Furthermore, he lost the eight stage points he originally earned. That dropped him 56 points below the playoff cutline to make the Championship 4 at Phoenix. Since it would be almost impossible […]