Alex Bowman's Late Charge to Fourth Masks Early Race Struggles

In an otherwise mediocre season, Alex Bowman made a surprise charge to fourth on the final stint of the NASCAR Cup Series race at Bristol on Sunday. Bowman tends to thrive in chaotic situations, so his strong finish shouldn't come as much of a surprise. Nearly lapped in the closing stages of the race, he […]

Christopher Bell Ran Well, But His Teammates Were All Better

Christopher Bell had a solid run at Bristol this weekend, but in almost every regard he was outperformed by his three Joe Gibbs Racing teammates. While all four JGR drivers took turns up front and had multiple passes for the lead, Bell had the worst finish (10th), the fewest laps led (29), the lowest driver […]

John Hunter Nemechek's NextGen Inexperience Makes Him a Longshot

Despite earning a top-10 finish at Daytona, John Hunter Nemechek's return to the Cup Series has been a surprisingly disappointing one, as he has zero laps led and no other top-20 race finishes despite retaining Ben Beshore as crew chief, who he dominated the Xfinity Series with last year. Nemechek's speed percentile of 26.77 lags […]

Corey LaJoie Has Speed at Bristol If He Can Avoid Errors

Corey LaJoie has had a very topsy-turvy 2024 to date. With increased Chevrolet investment into the Spire operation, LaJoie has never had more speed; he has ranked in the top half of speed in all three races he finished. However, he was mistake-prone the last two race weekends as he crashed at Las Vegas and […]

Kaz Grala's Short Track Debut Will Probably Disappoint

Kaz Grala makes his Cup Series short track debut at Bristol this afternoon, which makes speculating about his performance something of a question mark. Grala got much hype early in his career because he had two top-10s in his first three starts, but those came on a road course and a superspeedway race. Rick Ware […]

Austin Dillon Worse on Pavement Than on Dirt at Bristol

Austin Dillon starts 31st for this weekend's Bristol race, which is the worst Bristol qualifying run in his NASCAR Cup Series career and his worst starting position on any short track since 2017. While Dillon was a revelation in last year's spring event where he qualified second, finished third, and posted the fastest average race […]

Harrison Burton's Short Track Struggles Will Likely Continue at Bristol

Harrison Burton qualified 13th for this weekend's Food City 500, giving him his best starting position on a short track in his Cup career. But while he seems to have slightly improved since 2023 (if only because the Penske cars seem to be a little faster), his short track performance has not been up to […]

Chase Briscoe an Underrated Power Play at Bristol

After an inexplicably subpar 2023, Chase Briscoe seems to have regained much of his speed in 2024 as his sixth-place qualifying run for this weekend's Bristol race gives him his fourth straight top-10 start, the longest such streak of his career. While Briscoe's speed percentile of 39.71 last year was not good, he was significantly […]

Pit Strategy Miscue Foils Martin Truex, Jr. Despite Race-Leading Speed

Martin Truex, Jr. was the fastest driver in Sunday's Shriners Children's 500 race at Phoenix, just as he was at Atlanta, making him the first NASCAR Cup driver to have the fastest average speed twice this season. Truex leads all drivers with a speed percentile of 95.71, but his chances for victory were thwarted by […]

Denny Hamlin Salvages Decent Finish After Late Race Spin

Despite winning the pole at Phoenix, Denny Hamlin was somewhat disappointing as he had an 0-3 lead change record, being passed once by his teammate Ty Gibbs on Lap 1 and twice by his driver Tyler Reddick after taking the lead in the pits twice due to having the best pit stall. Early in Stage […]

Despite Poor Qualifying Run, Corey LaJoie Still Better than His Reputation

After having the best average running position of his career at Las Vegas, Corey LaJoie surprisingly qualified last amongst the qualifying first group at Phoenix after breaking loose in two corners, giving him a 35th-place starting position while his teammate, Carson Hocevar, advanced to the final round of qualifying and will be starting 10th. LaJoie […]

Daniel Hemric Better at Phoenix Than Most Tracks

Although Daniel Hemric has not been a very good NASCAR Cup Series driver to date, Phoenix is definitely one of his better tracks. His career highlight is winning the 2021 Xfinity Series Championship and he did so by getting thew win in the season finale right here at Phoenix. In the Cup Series, Hemric has […]

Austin Dillon Has Poor Record at Phoenix

Both the Richard Childress Racing drivers qualified poorly for this weekend's Shriners Children's 500 at Phoenix with Austin Dillon qualifying 30th, one spot ahead of his teammate Kyle Busch (although Busch posted a slightly faster lap time). Dillon has badly struggled since losing his crew chief, Justin Alexander, who he had for all his wins […]

Austin Cindric Disappoints in Phoenix Qualifying

The Penske drivers all surprisingly disappointed in qualifying for this weekend's race at Phoenix despite Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney winning the NASCAR Cup Series championships in the last two fall Phoenix races, but none disappointed more than Austin Cindric, whose 34th qualifying position matches his worst starting position in his full-time career. Phoenix has […]

Joey Logano's Uninspiring Run Proves Ford Speed Deficit

Despite winning his second pole in three races at Las Vegas this past weekend, Joey Logano had a lackluster race at one of his best tracks, finishing ninth and ranking eighth in speed. Logano led only the first two laps of the race before getting steamrolled by Kyle Larson, who led most of the rest […]

Denny Hamlin Recovers from Subpar Qualifying Run at Las Vegas

Denny Hamlin recovered from an extremely disappointing 28th-place starting position to finish eighth at Las Vegas. Despite a mediocre start, a cagy call from crew chief Chris Gabehart for two tires during the second caution propelled Hamlin from 21st to 8th and he was never again outside of the top ten except on pit stop […]

Zane Smith Should Lag Teammates But Will Still Benefit from Speed Increase

Although Zane Smith will likely get a boost from the improved Chevrolet investment into Spire Motorsports for 2024, don't expect Smith to seriously compete with teammates Carson Hocevar and Corey LaJoie for team supremacy. Although the triumvirate competed for different teams in 2023, Hocevar's speed percentile on intermediates last year was 42.38 to LaJoie's 28.12 […]

Corey LaJoie Benefiting from Increased Factory Backing

With Chevrolet investing substantially more into Spire Motorsports than it has in previous years, the Spire cars were immediately faster than usual in practice and qualifying this weekend at Las Vegas with Carson Hocevar ranking 13th-fastest and Corey LaJoie ranking 15th-fastest in practice. LaJoie did out-qualify Hocevar by .038 seconds but will be starting worse […]

Carson Hocevar Immediately Competitive with Cup Veterans on Intermediates

In his first full-time race on a standard NASCAR Cup Series track, Carson Hocevar qualified 14th and will be the highest-starting Spire Motorsports driver in Sunday's race, although Corey LaJoie technically outqualified him but will be starting worse because he was in a more competitive group in the first round of qualifying. The 21-year-old wunderkind […]

Noah Gragson's Subpar Intermediate Speed Should Cost Him at Las Vegas

Noah Gragson is a big question mark in 2024, especially on intermediates like this weekend's race at Las Vegas. Although Gragson shockingly had the second-fastest lap and fifth-fastest average speed in practice, he only qualified 30th. On intermediate tracks in 2023, Gragson posted an abysmal speed percentile of 17.90 and they were Gragson's worst track […]

Austin Dillon Too Slow on Intermediates to Seriously Contend

Austin Dillon surprisingly outqualified his teammate Kyle Busch for this weekend's Las Vegas NASCAR Cup Series race, but don't expect him to seriously contend in the race. In 2024 thus far, Kyle Busch has an average speed percentile of 87.90, which ranks 5th in the Cup Series, while Dillon at 9.38 is last among full-timers. […]

Ross Chastain Outshone by Teammate, But Still Made Solid Recovery

Ross Chastain had a fairly quiet run at Atlanta on Sundary evening in a race where his teammate, Daniel Suárez, stole the headlines by winning in the closest three-way finish in NASCAR history. Chastain failed to lead any laps after his Daytona near-miss, ranked only 14th in driver rating, and had below-average speed. He did […]

Electrifying Ford Speed Carries Harrison Burton to One of His Best Runs

Harrison Burton had one of the best runs of his NASCAR Cup Series career at Atlanta on Sunday. He significantly benefited from Ford's dominant straight-line speed. Although Burton was outrun by all three of his de facto Penske teammates, who all led over 25 laps and earned the top three driver ratings in the race, […]

John Hunter Nemechek's Weak Drafting Record Makes Him a Longshot

Although John Hunter Nemechek just finished seventh in the Daytona 500 last week, he ran considerably worse and was one of the luckiest drivers in the race, primarily because he missed the Big One. Nemechek is not particularly strong on drafting tracks as he failed to win at both Daytona and Talladega in the Xfinity […]

Michael McDowell Scores First Career Pole at Atlanta

Michael McDowell won his first pole position in the NASCAR Cup Series at Atlanta Motor Speedway this weekend. His first pole came in his 467th start, breaking J.D. McDuffie's record from 1978 by 63 races. Front Row Motorsports has received significantly more support from Ford in 2024, as they have been promoted to Tier One […]

Daniel Hemric Likely Needs a Chaotic Race to Contend

Perhaps surprisingly, Daniel Hemric set the fastest lap in the Daytona 500 last week in his No. 31 Chevrolet even though the Fords were faster in qualifying and the Toyotas were generally faster in the race. There was a short period early in Stage 3 when he pushed his teammate A.J. Allmendinger to the front, […]

Kyle Busch's Improved Drafting Ability Makes Him a Favorite at Atlanta

Kyle Busch probably had one of the best cars in the Daytona 500 last week even though he failed to win. He made a race-high five passes for the lead in that race, had the best driver rating, and drove through the field twice before fading to 12th at the end, largely because his team […]

Alex Bowman Too Weak a Duelist to Win at Atlanta

Although Alex Bowman's streak of six consecutive Daytona 500 front row starts ended this year, he did post his best Daytona finish of second last week, falling just short of passing his teammate, William Byron, for the win before the caution on the last lap ended the race. His race did not come without controversy, […]

Erik Jones Shows Speed At Daytona Despite Disappointing Run

Although Erik Jones entered the Daytona 500 as one of the pre-race sleepers to win, he surprisingly had a lackluster race with an average running position of 18th and failed to lead despite contending in the Duel race at Daytona on Thursday night. He and the other Toyotas were very fast, as Jones ranked second […]

Ross Chastain's Hail Mary Attempt Falls Short

After finishing the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season by winning the season finale at Phoenix, Ross Chastain came close to making it two wins in a row, as he was in position to win the Daytona 500 in its final stages. Despite rarely factoring in the first three-quarters of the race because he and the […]