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Sean Wrona - RotoBaller

708 articles

I ran the auto racing statistical archive race-database.com from 2007 to 2015 and have been doing advanced auto racing analytics since 2013, mostly on my website Racermetrics. I was generally regarded as the fastest typist in the world throughout the 2010s, being most famous for winning the Ultimate Typing Championship at the South by Southwest Interactive conference in 2010. In 2021, I released my first book, Nerds per Minute: A History of Competitive Typing. I am currently doing research for a second book where I intend to rank the top 1,000 drivers in motorsports history and have built several statistical models to rank drivers across various motorsports series. I have just recently launched a blog at http://seanwrona.substack.com/ where I am releasing one driver capsule a day for my book if you are interested in subscribing. I earned a BA in Economics and an MPS in Applied Statistics from Cornell University in 2007 and 2008 respectively. I also am an expert-rated tournament Scrabble player. In high school, I was the statistician for the Mensa Scrabble-by-Mail Special Interest Group and wrote a 15-20 page column in that group's newsletter every other month. As you can see, I've been at this for a quarter century already.

Articles

Kyle Busch Fast Before Mid-Race Crash At Gateway

Kyle Busch's season is better than most people think. Busch passed Todd Gilliland for the lead on a restart at Gateway and held it before Christopher Bell overtook him shortly thereafter, giving Busch his seventh race with an on-track pass for the lead, tied for second-most this season. However, that ultimately doesn't matter since he's […]


Christopher Bell Dominates For Second Straight Week Until Engine Goes Sour

By most metrics, Christopher Bell dominated Sunday's Enjoy Illinois 300 at Gateway. Not only did he have the fastest average lap time by nearly a 10th of a second, he led the most laps, won the first two stages, and made three of the race's five on-track passes for the lead. It's debatable whether Ryan […]


Daniel Suárez's Race Speed Deficit and Poor Qualifying Don't Bode Well for Gateway

Although his win at Atlanta locked him into the playoffs, Daniel Suárez's season has rapidly unraveled since then as he had a streak of ten races with below-average speed from Phoenix to Darlington, but he finally had above average speed again in last week's Coca-Cola 600 for the first time since Las Vegas. While that […]


Lack of Speed and Stewart-Haas Racing Closure Will Likely Doom Ryan Preece at Gateway

Ryan Preece qualified 32nd for this weekend's Gateway race but all signs point toward him having an extremely mediocre run on Sunday. All four Stewart-Haas cars qualified badly, most likely because it was announced that the team is going out of business, and while Preece's teammates haven't had a large difference in performance this year, […]


Corey LaJoie Looks to Redeem Himself After Last Year's Gateway Disappointment

Corey LaJoie qualified 15th at Gateway, earning his best oval start this year. He's perhaps eager to prove himself here because his underachievement in the No. 9 Hendrick car in last year's race caused many fans who previously considered him one of the best underdogs in the NASCAR Cup Series to believe that he's always […]


Carson Hocevar Seeks to Fulfill the Promise of Last Year's Auspicious Gateway Debut

Carson Hocevar made his NASCAR Cup Series debut at Gateway last year and attracted a lot of attention when he outran his current teammate Corey LaJoie when LaJoie was substituting for Chase Elliott in his No. 9 Chevrolet after his suspension, while Hocevar drove LaJoie's usual No. 7 Spire Motorsports car. Although Hocevar crashed in […]


Ross Chastain Has Gained Consistency, but Probably Not Fast Enough to Win at Gateway

Ross Chastain qualified 16th for this weekend's Enjoy Illinois 300 at Gateway. While Chastain has neither led a lap at the track nor finished better than 8th, he did win a Craftsman Truck Series race here in 2019 and the track's egg shape greatly resembles Darlington Raceway, where he has usually done well. Chastain has […]


Chase Briscoe Should Struggle at Gateway After Being Distracted by Team's Shutdown Announcement

Although Chase Briscoe won the pole for the inaugural NASCAR Cup Series race at Gateway and led the first 27 laps, it's unlikely that Briscoe will seriously contend in this weekend's Enjoy Illinois 300. In last year's event, he was a complete nonfactor as he started 25th and finished 34th. This weekend he qualified 23rd. […]


Josh Berry Unlikely to Contend at Gateway

After earning his best two finishes of the NASCAR Cup Series season in back-to-back weeks, Josh Berry makes his first start in the Cup Series at Gateway this weekend. He competed in one previous Gateway race in the Craftsman Truck Series in 2021 where he qualified 14th and finished 15th for Rackley W.A.R., roughly commensurate […]


Tyler Reddick Recovers From Drive-Through Penalty To Finish Fourth At Charlotte

After his team made an unapproved adjustment after pre-qualifying inspection, Tyler Reddick was forced to start last and make a drive-through penalty at the start of Sunday night's Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. He came out of the pits directly in front of Ty Gibbs and was able to stay in front of him […]


Ty Gibbs Has Great Speed At Charlotte

In his second season, Ty Gibbs remains very fast, as he ranks fifth in Cup Series speed with a speed percentile of 71.96, and he backed that up at Charlotte with his first-ever pole and his second-fastest lap this year. However, he ultimately finished sixth, both in the race and in his speed ranking. Although […]


William Byron Finishes Third, Has Significantly Improved At Passing

Despite all of William Byron's recent strengths, one of his weaknesses has been passing on long runs. Although he is usually electrifying on short runs, particularly late in races, he often struggled to dominate entire stints last year, and in 2023's Coca-Cola 600, he had a dismal 2-7 lead change record as he kept retaking […]


Justin Allgaier Finishes 13th At Charlotte In Substitute Role For Kyle Larson

After the rain delay at Indianapolis meant Kyle Larson couldn't make the start of the Coca-Cola 600, Justin Allgaier got the opportunity of a lifetime to drive Larson's No. 5 Chevrolet, only the second time the prolific Xfinity Series winner drove a competitive NASCAR Cup Series car. In his only other Hendrick start at the […]


Shane van Gisbergen Making Non-Drafting Oval Debut at Charlotte

Shane van Gisbergen is making his first NASCAR Cup Series start on a non-drafting oval in this weekend's Coca-Cola 600, so it's difficult to predict his performance. His only previous race at Charlotte came in yesterday's BetMGM 300 Xfinity Series race, where he drove from 29th to 15th, but both of his teammates, A.J. Allmendinger […]


Daniel Suarez May Benefit From Trackhouse's Intermediate Speed, but Don't Count On It

On paper, Daniel Suárez seems like one of the best longshot candidates in this weekend's Coca-Cola 600. Both his win at Atlanta and his only other top-five this season (at Texas) came on high-banked intermediates just like Charlotte. Suárez qualified 14th for tonight's event, giving him his best starting position on a non-drafting track this […]


Charlotte Might be Zane Smith's Best Shot for a Solid Run

Zane Smith's rookie season has admittedly been very rocky, as he has no top-10s, no laps led, and the worst speed percentile amongst full-timers at 21.96, not to mention that his teammates, Corey LaJoie and fellow rookie Carson Hocevar, outrun him nearly every race weekend. However, Charlotte might be one of Smith's best opportunities to […]


John Hunter Nemechek Still Struggling to Figure Out Next Gen Car on Intermediates

John Hunter Nemechek qualified 26th for this weekend's Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Although he did outqualify his teammate, Erik Jones, don't expect either of the Legacy Motor Club cars to do much in the race. Jones is likely still feeling the brunt of his injury from Talladega, while Nemechek has been mediocre for […]


Corey LaJoie Likely to Have One of His Best Runs of the Season... If He Can Keep It Clean

Corey LaJoie has faced more criticism than any other NASCAR driver this year because he's been consistently outrun by his rookie teammate, Carson Hocevar, but that's more likely a result of fans underrating Hocevar than overrating LaJoie. LaJoie's performance has still been a lot closer to Hocevar's than Zane Smith's by nearly all metrics. LaJoie […]


Intermediates Haven't Been Brad Keselowski's Strong Suit With Next Gen Chassis

Although Brad Keselowski has won twice at Charlotte, he probably isn't one of the favorites for tonight's Coca-Cola 600 despite winning the last points race at Darlington and finishing second at Texas in the last high-banked intermediate race. Keselowski has struggled in qualifying all year and qualified 30th this weekend, matching his worst starting position […]


Ross Chastain Remains Strong on Intermediates Despite Decline in Speed Elsewhere

Trackhouse Racing has struggled to maintain its speed this year, as Ross Chastain has factored for the lead significantly less often than in 2022 and 2023 while his teammate, Daniel Suárez, has had an even more staggering decline. However, Charlotte is one of the likeliest tracks where Chastain could turn it around. He's been significantly […]


Chris Buescher Blows Tire in Practice, Will Start 39th at Charlotte

After blowing a tire in practice, Chris Buescher elected to not set a qualifying time for this weekend's Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte because he would have to start in the back after switching to a backup car anyway; he will be starting 39th in tonight's race. Although Charlotte isn't one of Buescher's absolute best tracks, […]


Ricky Stenhouse Jr Punches Kyle Busch After Lap 2 Crash at All-Star Race

Ricky Stenhouse Jr crashed in yesterday's NASCAR All-Star Race after two laps and finished last, triggering a post-race fight with Kyle Busch that overshadowed the entire race. On the opening lap, Stenhouse poked his nose between sixth-row starters, Denny Hamlin and Busch, to make a three-wide pass down the middle, but it forced Busch into […]


Kyle Busch Wrecked Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. at All-Star Race, Then Said He "Sucks"

Kyle Busch had a mediocre run in last night's NASCAR All-Star Race, starting 14th and finishing 10th, but that's not what people will remember. On lap 1, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. made a three-wide pass on Denny Hamlin and Busch down the middle, forcing Busch into the wall. Rowdy decided to retaliate, sending Stenhouse into the […]


Daniel Suárez's Dismal Short Track Speed Should Make Him Non-Factor at North Wilkesboro

Although Daniel Suárez delivered one of the season's greatest highlights in his Atlanta win, he has not had the performance of a winner in most other events, and don't expect that to change in the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro. Suárez enters the event as the second-slowest eligible driver on all tracks as well as […]


Brad Keselowski's Strong Qualifying Run May Bode Well for First All-Star Win

Perhaps surprisingly, Brad Keselowski has never won the NASCAR All-Star Race, but he has a very real chance to change that in this evening's event. Keselowski qualified second at North Wilkesboro and enters on something of a hot streak after winning at Darlington shortly after back-to-back second-place finishes at Talladega and Texas. Although the polesitter, […]


Ross Chastain's Short Track Performance Too Consistently Mediocre to Contend

Ross Chastain qualified seventh for the All-Star Race, but don't expect him to be a contender, as short tracks are generally Chastain's Achilles' heel. Chastain only ranks 17th in short track speed this year and he was even worse last year when he ranked 23rd even though the Trackhouse Racing cars seemed to be a […]


Chris Buescher's Recent Intensity May Elevate His All-Star Performance

Chris Buescher qualified fifth for tonight's All-Star Race, but he probably isn't one of the favorites to win. Last year, Buescher qualified second but never led and fell to 16th a lap down by race's end. Although he did get two top ten finishes at Bristol and Richmond, he didn't seriously contend in either of […]


Ryan Blaney Qualified Slowest at North Wilkesboro, but Should Run Better

Defending NASCAR Cup Series champion Ryan Blaney qualified last for this evening's NASCAR All-Star Race, twenty seconds slower than his teammate Joey Logano, who won the pole. Although he has won the race once before, the race was held at Texas Motor Speedway that year. Blaney finished sixth in last year's event but was not […]


Kyle Larson Wins Stage, but Crashes Out at Darlington Due to Cut Tire

Kyle Larson started sixth at Darlington before being taken out in a lap 252 crash, relegating him to a 34th-place finish. Larson had great speed, especially in Stage 1 when he beat Tyler Reddick out of the pits before passing Ty Gibbs to take the Stage win. However, after Reddick retook the lead in the […]


Slow Pit Stops Foil Todd Gilliland at Darlington Despite Impressive Speed

Although Todd Gilliland finished 15th in this weekend's race at Darlington while his teammate Michael McDowell finished 10th, that does not reflect how well he ran, as Gilliland consistently had more speed, particularly in Stage 1 when he drove from 15th to 6th, finishing the Stage as the second-highest Ford driver behind only eventual race […]


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