Denny Hamlin's Consistent Drafting Finishes Should Help Sunday

Denny Hamlin enters Sunday's YellaWood 500 second in the points standings 37 points above the cutline and fifteen points higher than Chris Buescher, the next driver not locked in. Despite his past success on drafting tracks, he seems unlikely to win. Hamlin drives a Toyota while Ford drivers have led the most laps in all […]

Erik Jones Looks Great At Texas Motor Speedway

While his wunderkind teammate Carson Hocevar is currently stealing most of the headlines for Legacy Motor Club, Erik Jones perseveres despite having a slower car than he did last year. Jones finished between 8th and 11th at every non-drafting superspeedway from Nashville to Darlington unexpectedly culminated in a 3rd-place finish at Kansas, easily the team's […]

Alex Bowman's Mediocre Speed Doesn't Bode Well for Texas

Alex Bowman's 2022 playoff campaign was derailed by a concussion he suffered in a crash at Texas, which caused him to miss the next five races. After a promising start to 2023, a back injury in a sprint car crash in Iowa again forced him to miss races. Bowman suffered a significant downturn in speed […]

Michael McDowell Unlikely to Duplicate Bristol Result

Although Michael McDowell did defy expectations and unexpectedly delivered the best short track run of his entire career in last weekend's Bristol Night Race, his 6th-place finish was still not enough for him to advance as he finished 16 points below the cutline. Considering he was the only driver who entered the playoffs with below-average […]

Kevin Harvick's Poor Bristol Run Raises Questions

Kevin Harvick was eliminated from the playoffs in last weekend's Bristol Night Race by four points after an uncharacteristically poor 29th-place finish. It would have been easy for Harvick to advance since the two bubble drivers who advanced to the next round, Martin Truex, Jr. and Bubba Wallace, scored mediocre 19th and 14th place finishes […]

Christopher Bell Will Be Fast But Could Falter Late

Christopher Bell did not get that fourth straight pole. However, the three Joe Gibbs Racing veterans have had blistering speed on intermediates with Truex leading the series with a speed percentile of 88.77% on those tracks followed by Denny Hamlin's 87.56%, Kyle Larson's 84.22%, and Bell's 80.07%. The Toyota dominance continued in qualifying with Bubba […]

Chris Buescher Quick, But Suffers With Intermediate Speed

Chris Buescher has been one of the hottest drivers in the Cup Series with three wins and five top tens in the last seven races. He leads Ford drivers in both wins and speed, having overtaken Kevin Harvick at Bristol to become the fastest Ford driver this year with a speed percentile of 63.76%, but […]

William Byron Should Be Fast But Only Contend

William Byron enters tomorrow's race at Texas in a tie for the points lead with Martin Truex, Jr. Byron leads the Cup Series this season in numerous categories including wins, top tens, laps led, fastest laps, average speed, and races with a pass for the lead. His prospects of advancing to the Round of 8 […]

Austin Cindric's Short Track Woes Will Likely Continue

Although he did have a memorable finish in the 2021 Xfinity night race at Bristol with A.J. Allmendinger when both drivers crashed across the finish line while battling for the win, don't expect Austin Cindric to contend in the Cup night race Saturday. Not only has this been the slowest season for Team Penske in […]

Alex Bowman Unlikely To Contend At Bristol

While his Hendrick teammates are all likely to deliver strong performances in the Bristol night race Saturday night, Alex Bowman is unlikely to do the same. Unlike Chase Elliott, who has picked up speed this year in recent weeks after his injury, Bowman has been unable to duplicate that. Bowman ranked second in speed with […]

Chase Elliott's Improved Speed May Bode Well For Bristol

Despite missing the driver's playoffs, Chase Elliott has his mojo back in recent weeks. He now ranks 8th in speed this year with a speed percentile of 68.37%, having recently overtaken teammate Alex Bowman to become the third-fastest Hendrick driver this year. In the last five races, he ranks 5th in speed with a speed […]

Michael McDowell Likely Needs Win To Advance

Although Michael McDowell made the playoffs and earned his best short track qualifying performance ever for Saturday night's Bristol race, he almost certainly won't advance to the Round of 12. He ranks last in the playoffs 40 points below the cutline, which means he needs a win. Stage points might help as well. However, short […]

Bubba Wallace Needs Some Help To Advance

Bubba Wallace enters Saturday night's Bristol race 19 points beneath the playoff cutline after blowing a tire and hitting the wall at Kansas last weekend while running second. Unfortunately, having bad luck at his best track means he likely needs a great finish at a track that has historically been not so good. In eight […]

Joey Logano In Danger Of Missing Round Of 12

Joey Logano ranks 11th in points, a mere 12 points above the playoff cutline entering Saturday's Bristol night race. Despite winning last year's championship, his prospects of advancing look not that certain. In last year's race, he finished 27th after a suspension failure and only ranked 16th in speed. Although he did win the inaugural […]

Ryan Preece Likely To Struggle at Kansas

Two weeks after his crash in the regular season finale at Daytona, Ryan Preece persevered and didn't miss any races, running the entire race in last weekend's Southern 500 en route to a 28th place finish. However, he is unlikely to run well at Kansas for a variety of reasons. The Fords in general and […]

Erik Jones Should Contend for Top Ten Finish

Although Erik Jones has had much slower cars this year than he did last year since Chevrolet withdrew funding from the Legacy Motor Club team after they announced their switch to Toyota, Jones is still quietly delivering solid performances especially on unrestricted superspeedways. In the last four races on such tracks at Loudon, Pocono, Michigan, […]

Kevin Harvick Can Contend At Kansas But Not Win

Kevin Harvick will make his final start at the Kansas Speedway in tomorrow's Hollywood Casino 400. Kansas has been an excellent track for Harvick in the past. He has won three times and led 949 laps. However, he has not led since 2020 as the Stewart-Haas team has had a general decline in speed that […]

Chase Elliott May Return To Form At Kansas

Although he shockingly failed to make the playoffs for the first time in his career, Chase Elliott still stands a strong chance to be the playoffs' biggest spoiler, especially given the speed Hendrick Motorsports typically has at Kansas. In addition to winning there in 2018, Hendrick drivers have led the most laps in four of […]

Kansas Is Bubba Wallace's Best Shot For Playoff Win

Bubba Wallace returns to Kansas as a playoff contender for the first time. Not only did the 23XI Racing team sweep the Kansas races last year with Kurt Busch winning in the spring event and Wallace winning in the summer, but the Toyotas have maintained that speed all year on the intermediate tracks. In the […]

Kevin Harvick Should Finish Well Sunday

While Kevin Harvick successfully extended his streak of consecutive playoff appearances to fourteen, the outgoing Stewart-Haas driver has struggled with speed this year as his speed percentile of 61.92% (slowest since 2009). He was the fastest Ford driver for most of this season. However, Harvick was passed by Chris Buescher in that category last week […]

Alex Bowman Strong Dark Horse Because Of Blake Harris

Despite failing to advance to the playoffs for the first time as a full-time Hendrick driver, Bowman has actually performed better this year than you likely think. Bowman's speed percentile of 67.47% this year is actually his third-best as a full-time Hendrick driver; he was only faster in 2020 and 2021. The main difference is […]

Aric Almirola A Longshot Despite Best Qualifying In Years

Although Aric Almirola qualified 10th for tomorrow's Southern 500, expecting even a top five may be a tall task for the Ford driver. In the three Darlington races with the NextGen car, he has ranked 14th, 17th, and 17th in speed and he has never finished better than 7th at Darlington or even led a […]

Blaney An Unlikely Contender Despite Qualifying Speed

After barely qualifying for the NASCAR playoffs last year in a year he performed much better, Blaney easily qualified this year with a dominant win at Charlotte last spring. However, he is unlikely to contend for tomorrow's crown jewel event at Darlington despite qualifying 4th ahead of all the other Fords. Darlington is notoriously one […]

Joey Logano's History Bodes Well for Darlington and Playoffs

Although Joey Logano was mediocre over the summer, he still qualified for the 2023 NASCAR playoffs by virtue of his win at Talladega. Sunday's Southern 500 should be one of his best opportunities to end his winless drought. Logano has a history of performing better in the playoffs. He has a 6.5% winning percentage in […]

Daniel Suárez A Longshot For Playoffs Despite Being Eligible

Daniel Suárez is still mathematically eligible to make the NASCAR playoffs on points if he doesn't win since he trails Bubba Wallace by 43 points for the last playoff spot with a maximum of 55 points available to the second-place finisher. However, that is unlikely since Wallace is one of the best drivers on this […]

Ty Gibbs A Bigger Longshot To Make Playoffs Than He Seems

Although Ty Gibbs has had a consistent rookie season he's unlikely to make the playoffs. Gibbs trails Toyota stablemate Bubba Wallace by 32 points for the final playoff transfer spot. Furthermore, Wallace is unlikely to be overtaken on points as he is one of the best drivers on drafting tracks in the series. Gibbs would […]

Bubba Wallace's Playoff Bid Likely If No New Winner

Despite winning in each of the last two seasons, Bubba Wallace has not yet made the playoffs since both wins happened in playoff races after he was eliminated. This year he has been more consistent despite not winning. The 23XI Racing driver sits on the playoff bubble with a 32-point lead over Ty Gibbs. It's […]

Erik Jones One Of The Likeliest Longshots To Win At Daytona

After having his breakout season for Legacy Motor Club last year, Erik Jones has struggled to match those results this year, likely because Chevrolet has withdrawn funding from the team after it switched to Toyota. Although he can't point his way into the playoffs, Jones is still one of the likeliest drivers to win his […]

Brennan Poole One Of The Best Underdog Picks For Daytona

Brennan Poole is making his first NASCAR Cup Series start on a drafting track since 2020 at Daytona for Rick Ware Racing on Saturday. Although the team isn't fast enough to be competitive on most tracks, it has collected at least one top ten finish in the past four Daytona races. Last year, they placed […]