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Sean Wrona - RotoBaller

674 articles

I ran the auto racing statistical archive race-database.com from 2007 to 2015 and have been doing advanced auto racing analytics since 2013, mostly on my website Racermetrics. I was generally regarded as the fastest typist in the world throughout the 2010s, being most famous for winning the Ultimate Typing Championship at the South by Southwest Interactive conference in 2010. In 2021, I released my first book, Nerds per Minute: A History of Competitive Typing. I am currently doing research for a second book where I intend to rank the top 1,000 drivers in motorsports history and have built several statistical models to rank drivers across various motorsports series. I have just recently launched a blog at http://seanwrona.substack.com/ where I am releasing one driver capsule a day for my book if you are interested in subscribing. I earned a BA in Economics and an MPS in Applied Statistics from Cornell University in 2007 and 2008 respectively. I also am an expert-rated tournament Scrabble player. In high school, I was the statistician for the Mensa Scrabble-by-Mail Special Interest Group and wrote a 15-20 page column in that group's newsletter every other month. As you can see, I've been at this for a quarter century already.

Articles

Despite Locking Himself Into Playoffs, Joey Logano Still Lacks Speed

While Joey Logano's shock Nashville victory locked him into the playoffs, he is continuing to have arguably his most mediocre season at Team Penske to date and don't expect that to change just because he won last Sunday. Logano's speed percentile in the Cup Series currently ranks 15th at 59.77%, which is substantially slower than […]

9 months ago

Corey LaJoie Looks to Replicate Season-Best Sonoma Run at Chicago

Much like his Spire Motorsports teammate Carson Hocevar, Corey LaJoie has done a good job finishing races but has also been involved in quite a few sloppy incidents where he overdrove and took out other cars. LaJoie has received the brunt of the criticism this year because Hocevar has regularly outrun him as a rookie […]

9 months ago

Erik Jones's Recent Road Course Record Too Mediocre to Contend

Erik Jones qualified 25th for this afternoon's race on the Chicago Street Course. Jones had a fairly anonymous run in this race last year when he started 21st and finished 16th. However, since Legacy Motor Club switched to Toyota, their cars have been slower than they were last year while Jones is still recovering from […]

9 months ago

Carson Hocevar Looks to Redeem Himself After Rough Driving Penalty

Carson Hocevar came under fire after last week's Nashville race for intentionally right-hooking Harrison Burton under caution, which resulted in a $50,000 fine and 25-point penalty, making it increasingly unlikely he will overtake Josh Berry for Rookie of the Year honors. It wasn't the first time Hocevar had engaged in such aberrant behavior. However, unlike […]

9 months ago

Austin Hill Makes NASCAR Cup Series Debut at Chicago Street Course

Austin Hill qualified 34th for his first Chicago Street Course race in the NASCAR Cup Series. He has driven at this track in the Xfinity Series twice before, finishing fifth in last year's rain-shortened event and 7th in yesterday's race, where he passed Sammy Smith for the lead on a restart and led eight laps […]

9 months ago

Joey Hand Gets First Competitive NASCAR Ride, but Faster on Road Courses than Street Courses

Although Joey Hand is making his NASCAR Cup Series debut on the Chicago Street Course, his twenty years as a sports car veteran give him more experience than the vast majority of NASCAR regulars. However, his 2011 win at Long Beach was the only one of his 18 IMSA wins that came on a street […]

9 months ago

Harrison Burton Seeks to Prove Himself After Losing Wood Brothers Ride

Last week was not a good one for Harrison Burton. In last Sunday's Nashville race, Carson Hocevar intentionally spun him out under caution. On Wednesday, it was revealed that Josh Berry will replace him in the No. 21 Wood Brothers Ford after the closure of Stewart-Haas Racing. Although Burton has been extremely mediocre in the […]

9 months ago

Bubba Wallace Was Solid at Nashville, but Playoff Chances Plummet After Joey Logano's Fluke Victory

Although Bubba Wallace was significantly outrun by the other top-tier Toyota teams at Nashville and only ranked 12th-fastest in speed, he stayed out of the pits on the lap 220 caution after pitting only laps earlier, putting him in a great position for a strong finish to hopefully close his deficit to Joey Logano for […]

9 months ago

Martin Truex Jr Had Steady Run, but Was Typically Foiled by Bad Luck at Nashville

Martin Truex Jr had a fairly anonymous race at Nashville by his standards, as he was the slowest Joe Gibbs Racing driver, but he didn't run badly either as he ranked sixth in speed and average running position despite being struck by bad luck--as usual. Although Truex ran in the back half of the top […]

9 months ago

Kyle Larson Takes Sole Possession of Points Lead After Consistent Yet Sloppy Drive

Kyle Larson delivered a typically strong performance in yesterday's race at Nashville to break his tie for the points lead with Chase Elliott and take a 20-point lead. Although Larson never led, he consistently ran in the top five for most of the race and ranked third behind Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick in speed, […]

9 months ago

Ross Chastain Wrecked Out at Nashville but Arguably Had Best Run of the Season

Although Ross Chastain spent most of yesterday's Ally 400 towards the back of the top twenty, his crew chief, Phil Surgen, made a brilliant strategy call to take two tires on the lap 220 caution, placing him in front of all the faster cars who took four tires. Most of the other drivers who stayed […]

9 months ago

Ryan Blaney Bails Out Team After Dubious Pit Strategy

Although Ryan Blaney started 18th and had a mediocre Stage 1 at Nashville, he worked into the top five just before Chase Elliott's first spin. Blaney's crew chief, Jonathan Hassler, elected to stay out of the pits, a move destined to fail as he would have needed to stretch his fuel mileage 113 laps to […]

9 months ago

Daniel Suarez Lacks Speed in Nashville Despite Recent Strong Runs

Although Daniel Suarez seemed to fall into complacency after his early-season photo-finish win at Atlanta locked him into the playoffs--as he is having by far his slowest season in a competitive car with a speed percentile of 36.99--he's finally showed some speed again in recent weeks with his first top-10 qualifying run of the year […]

9 months ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr Probably Needs Strategy to Contend at Nashville

Although Ricky Stenhouse Jr has his career-worst speed percentile in the NASCAR Cup Series at 33.84 at the season's halfway point and is arguably having his most invisible season, he unexpectedly scored back-to-back top tens at Iowa and Loudon in the last two races. However, both finishes were primarily due to strategy rather than Stenhouse's […]

9 months ago

Michael McDowell Scores Best Qualifying Run at Nashville, but Will Likely Fade

Michael McDowell continues his best-ever season in terms of qualifying performance with a 14th-place run yesterday at Nashville while his teammate, Todd Gilliland, qualified a mere 32nd. Apparently, any speculation that Front Row Motorsports would shift its focus to Gilliland after McDowell announced his departure might have been premature. However, McDowell has not done a […]

9 months ago

Corey LaJoie's Recent Improvement May Pay Dividends at Nashville

Although Corey LaJoie was very disappointing for most of the first half of the season--particularly at Gateway where he had the second-slowest average speed in the race while his rookie teammate, Carson Hocevar, finished 8th--it seems that may have lit a fire under Lajoie, as in the three races since, he has exhibited more patience […]

9 months ago

Erik Jones Still Struggling for Speed after Talladega Crash

Erik Jones had a fairly miserable first half of the NASCAR Cup Series season as a result of Legacy Motor Club receiving less funding from Toyota than their other two teams, not to mention his injury at Talladega. Jones still has solid racecraft in terms of usually finishing better than he starts, as he has […]

9 months ago

Carson Hocevar Should Deliver Another Strong Run at Nashville

Carson Hocevar qualified 15th for today's race at Nashville, faster than both Spire Motorsports teammates again despite no past experience in the NASCAR Cup Series at this track. He has been successful here in other series, though, as he won last year's Craftsman Truck Series race, although he crashed in the following day's Xfinity Series […]

9 months ago

Riley Herbst Too Inexperienced to Contend at Nashville

Riley Herbst starts 30th at Nashville on Sunday, ahead of his teammate Justin Haley, but Haley did qualify faster than Herbst. Although Herbst has already collected two top-10s in the NASCAR Cup Series, those came in drafting races where slower teams like Herbst's Rick Ware Racing can more easily compete. Haley has had surprisingly consistent […]

9 months ago

Corey Heim Should Benefit From Faster 23XI Toyotas at Nashville

Corey Heim makes his first start in the NASCAR Cup Series for 23XI Racing in this afternoon's Nashville race after two previous starts for Legacy Motor Club while subbing for the injured Erik Jones earlier this season. It's reasonable to expect a better result from him in this race than in his previous starts at […]

9 months ago

Bubba Wallace Falls Below Playoff Cut Line After Noah Gragson Wrecked Him

Bubba Wallace had a mediocre albeit decent run at New Hampshire yesterday. Although he never factored for the lead unlike his teammate, Tyler Reddick, he ran in the top 10 for much of Stage 2, but usually ran between 11th and 20th until he was eliminated in a crash when Noah Gragson spun out while […]

9 months ago

Joey Logano Crashed, but Still Moves Above Playoffs Cut Line

Although Joey Logano never led during yesterday's New Hampshire race, he ran in the top five consistently except for pit stop exchanges until he spun out Chase Elliott to trigger the fifth caution of the race while they were battling for 11th behind a number of drivers who had either stayed out of the pits […]

9 months ago

Denny Hamlin Won Stage 2, but Struggled in the Rain at New Hampshire

Denny Hamlin had a solid run at New Hampshire despite finishing 24th and his teammates, Christopher Bell and Martin Truex, Jr., outperforming him. Hamlin utilized some characteristically nifty strategy from his crew chief, Chris Gabehart, to stay out of the pits on the second caution when most of the other leaders pitted. Since passing was […]

9 months ago

Kyle Busch's Playoffs in Doubt After Crashing Thrice

Kyle Busch had one of his sloppiest races ever at New Hampshire yesterday as he crashed three times. After shockingly being lapped in Stage 1, Busch broke loose into Noah Gragson, spinning both drivers out to initiate the race's third caution. He then spun out just before the rain arrived after a failed block of […]

9 months ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr Uncharacteristically Slow This Year, but May Regress to the Mean

Ricky Stenhouse Jr starts 13th at New Hampshire, a track where he has earned two top-10 finishes but none since 2016. Stenhouse led three laps in last year's race after staying out of the pits during the first caution, but he was immediately passed by William Byron on the restart. Stenhouse is still on pace […]

9 months ago

John Hunter Nemechek Hopes to Finish First NASCAR Cup Series Race at New Hampshire

John Hunter Nemechek has only made one start in the NASCAR Cup Series at New Hampshire during his 2020 rookie season when he finished 36th after a crash. However, he has run significantly better in other NASCAR divisions since, most notably when he won last year's Xfinity Series race there and led 137 laps. However, […]

9 months ago

Lack of Toyota Support Will Probably Foil Erik Jones's Effort at New Hampshire

Erik Jones starts 32nd at New Hampshire in this weekend's race. He's had some strong runs at this track in the past, as he earned two top 10s and even a third-place finish in the years he drove for Joe Gibbs Racing, the team that tends to dominate there. However, Jones has been noticeably slow […]

9 months ago

Noah Gragson Unlikely to Contend at New Hampshire, but Will Likely Improve Upon Last Year

Noah Gragson starts 21st for this weekend's USA Today 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon. Although the Stewart-Haas Racing cars tend to be faster on shorter ovals than speedways in recent years, Loudon is not one of Gragson's best tracks, as in last year's race he only ranked 30th in speed and even […]

9 months ago

Austin Dillon May Be a Dark Horse at New Hampshire After Strong Run at Gateway

Austin Dillon will be starting 22nd at New Hampshire and you wouldn't think he'd be a top contender in this race when considering he only ranks 30th of 35 regular drivers in speed and his speed percentile on the four short superspeedways this year has been even worse. However, Dillon finished 9th in last year's […]

9 months ago

Harrison Burton Not a Master at His Father's Best Track

Harrison Burton ranks next to last in average speed in the four short track races this season ahead of only Kaz Grala. Although he's never been better than mediocre in the Cup Series to begin with, he tends to run even worse on shorter ovals than on other tracks. Burton has finished both Loudon races […]

9 months ago

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