Kyle Larson A Favorite But Others Have Urgency

Kyle Larson has already advanced to the Championship 4 by virtue of his win in Las Vegas, so he doesn't need to win at Martinsville tomorrow but he still stands as one of the obvious favorites. In addition to finally winning his first Cup race there in the spring event, he also outqualified all the […]

Poor Stewart-Haas Speed Could Hinder Aric Almirola

Aric Almirola makes what may be his final start on an intermediate track in tomorrow's Homestead race, depending on whether he chooses to retire at the end of the 2023 season or not. However, whether he retires or not, it seems unlikely that he will have a strong run. The Stewart-Haas cars have been miserably […]

Joey Logano Practice Crash Means Big Trouble

After a crash in Saturday morning practice, Joey Logano will be starting last in tomorrow's Homestead race, which is not a good sign for him since it seems that with the Next Gen car. Backup cars have been nowhere near as competitive as they were with previous generations of cars. Judging by Chase Elliott having […]

Daniel Suárez’s Intermediate Mediocrity Likely To Continue At Homestead

Although Daniel Suárez had a lot of speed on intermediate superspeedways including making quite a few passes for the lead on those tracks in 2022, they have been mediocre for him in 2023 . Now, he ranks only 17th in intermediate speed for the season, and he seems to have slowed as the season progressed […]

Kaulig Instability May Hinder A.J. Allmendinger's Homestead Run

Although A.J. Allmendinger earned a dominant win at the Charlotte roval two weeks ago, he's unlikely to be a significant contender in tomorrow's Homestead race. Allmendinger failed to score a top ten finish on a non-drafting track of 1.5 miles or greater this season and he and teammate Justin Haley only qualified 25th and 27th […]

Kevin Harvick Has Place Differential Potential But Little Else

Kevin Harvick makes his final start at Homestead-Miami Speedway tomorrow and his sponsor Mobil 1 has commemorated the event by naming the race the 4EVER 400 to celebrate his retirement tour. However, the odds of Harvick being a significant race factor seem remote. In the last five races on intermediate tracks at Atlanta, Michigan, Kansas, […]

Chris Buescher's Playoff Hopes May Be In Trouble

Chris Buescher became the first Roush driver to advance to the Round of 8 since Carl Edwards in 2014, but his good fortune will likely end this round. Despite his win at Michigan, Buescher has significantly lacked speed on intermediate tracks compared to the other drivers in the Round of 8. The Fords lag in […]

Ryan Blaney Still May Not Advance Despite Overturning of Disqualification

Although Ryan Blaney's disqualification was overturned only a few hours after my previous post, The Team Penske driver making the championship round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs still seems unlikely unless he wins at Martinsville because the Ford teams still lack the speed of the Toyotas and Chevies on intermediate tracks and he still […]

Tyler Reddick Still Alive But Might Need Homestead Win

Tyler Reddick is still alive in the playoffs after a seventh-place finish at Las Vegas and he only lost ground to Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell. However, Larson and Bell were the two drivers closest to Reddick in points, so he lost ground on the cutline and now sits fifteen points below it. He has […]

Ryan Blaney’s Playoffs Likely Over After Disqualification

After Ryan Blaney was disqualified for his team failing to meet NASCAR's specification for damper height, he was stripped of his sixth-place finish. Furthermore, he lost the eight stage points he originally earned. That dropped him 56 points below the playoff cutline to make the Championship 4 at Phoenix. Since it would be almost impossible […]

Intermediates A Strength For Joey Logano

Although Joey Logano was eliminated from the first round of the playoffs and shockingly only ranks 17th in speed this year, he has been marginally faster on intermediates than most other track types. Logano did not complete enough laps in the spring event at Las Vegas to have an accurate speed ranking, but he did […]

Decline In Trackhouse Speed Makes Daniel Suárez Unlikely Contender

Although Daniel Suárez showed flashes of brilliance in 2023 with nine races with an on-track pass for the lead and an impressive 15-9 lead change record, the Trackhouse cars have been significantly slower this year, which limited their performance. Suárez failed to make the playoffs after doing so last year and his teammate Ross Chastain […]

Carson Hocevar Should Finish Better Than He Runs

Carson Hocevar makes his return to the Cup Series at Las Vegas tomorrow for his sixth start of the season after skipping the Charlotte roval race. Since the 20-year-old wunderkind signed with Legacy Motor Club, the team has gotten significantly faster, but the veteran Erik Jones has been the main beneficiary of that, as Jones […]

Hendrick Speed At Las Vegas May Bode Well For Chase Elliott

Chase Elliott missed the previous race at Las Vegas this year because that was the first race after he fractured his tibia in a snowboarding accident.but Hendrick was dominant with his teammates sweeping the top three positions in both finishing order and average speed. Despite missing the playoffs, Elliott has had an uptick in performance […]

Kevin Harvick Could Have Rough Run Sunday

After being eliminated from the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, Kevin Harvick makes his final start at Las Vegas Motor Speedway Sunday, a track where he has won twice, but don't expect much from him. Not only have the Fords in general and the Stewart-Haas cars in particular been slow on intermediate tracks, but Harvick seems […]

Tyler Reddick Should Be Fast, But Chevies Are Favored

Tyler Reddick enters tomorrow's Las Vegas race as a likely contender for the win, considering he won the last flat intermediate race at Kansas, and flat intermediates have historically been one of his biggest strengths. In addition to his Kansas win, he also earned top fives in his first two Homestead starts, dominated the spring […]

William Byron Arguably Pre-Race Favorite At Las Vegas

William Byron qualified third for Sunday's race at Las Vegas, a track where he dominated in March for his first win of the season. Byron is the fastest driver in the Cup Series this year with a speed percentile of 79.73% and was also the fastest in his Las Vegas win. His trend this season […]

Joey Logano Likely To Finish Better Than He Runs

Having failed to make the Round of 12 in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, Joey Logano has nothing to lose in tomorrow's Charlotte ROVAL event. Logano has both run and finished better than both of his Penske teammates Austin Cindric and Ryan Blaney on road courses this year, but all have been relatively mediocre. Logano […]

Daniel Suárez Consistently Shows Underrated Road Course Speed

Although Daniel Suárez failed to make the NASCAR Cup playoffs this year, road courses have been one of his biggest strengths this year. Suárez ranks 14th in speed on road courses with a speed percentile of 59.39%, and that is the only track type where Suárez has been faster than his teammate Ross Chastain this […]

Aric Almirola Not Fast Enough To Contend

Despite his surprise win in the Xfinity race at Sonoma in June, don't expect much from Aric Almirola in Sunday's Charlotte ROVAL race. Not only has he finished 28th or worse in four of his five road course starts this year, he did finish all five of those races indicating that it was primarily a […]

Michael McDowell Should Run Strong At Charlotte

Although Michael McDowell has a reputation as a great NASCAR road racer, that was difficult to see in previous seasons because he seldom factored for the lead. That changed this year when he made all three passes for the lead at the Indianapolis and Watkins Glen road courses in back-to-back races and dominated the Indianapolis […]

Brad Keselowski Vulnerable On Playoff Bubble At Charlotte

Even though Brad Keselowski sits on the playoff bubble with a two-point advantage over Tyler Reddick for the last playoff spot, his odds of advancing to the Round of 8 do not look good. Keselowski has badly struggled on road courses in recent years due to both a lack of speed and numerous self-inflicted errors. […]

Ryan Blaney’s Team Unlikely To Focus On This Race

Having advanced to the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs with his win at Talladega last week, Ryan Blaney gets a breather and doesn't have to worry about the Charlotte ROVAL race. Blaney has not run well on road courses this season with an average finish of 21.4 and a speed percentile […]

Chris Buescher Should Run Well At Charlotte

Chris Buescher enters tomorrow's Bank of America ROVAL 400 as arguably the most consistent NASCAR driver of the season. Not only did he have a streak of 20 consecutive top twenty finishes, the longest of the season, but he has finished no worse than 11th in his last ten road course starts. Even though he […]

Ty Gibbs's Spring Talladega Speed May Carry Over To The Fall

As Ty Gibbs sees tracks the second time in his rookie season, it's only natural that he would improve performance-wise. In the last six races, Gibbs ranked second in speed at Watkins Glen and third at Bristol, where he led 102 laps. Now he returns to the site of his first on-track lead change. In […]

Michael McDowell Likely Victim Of Team's Change in Focus

Although Michael McDowell finished well on drafting tracks in 2021 and 2022, don't expect him to contend at Talladega this weekend. Despite the massive Ford advantage on drafting tracks, McDowell has failed to lead a lap on those tracks all season. He did finish fourth in the summer Atlanta race, that performance was inflated as […]

Chase Briscoe Fast At Tracks Like Talladega

Chase Briscoe has had a rather baffling season. After being one of the breakout drivers of 2022, many people expected Briscoe to challenge Kevin Harvick to be the leader at Stewart-Haas Racing. Instead, Briscoe has been the slowest SHR driver by far this year, ranking only 28th in speed. However, despite his mediocrity elsewhere, Briscoe […]

Talladega Might Be Kevin Harvick's Last Chance for Victory

If Kevin Harvick is going to win in his final season, tomorrow's YellaWood 500 may be his last great shot. The Fords have had a massive advantage in the drafting races this year as Ford drivers have led the most laps in all five drafting races this season including leading over half the laps in […]

Ross Chastain's Season Quietly Better Than It Seems

Although Ross Chastain has taken his share of criticism for his crashes, and lack of dominance. Despite ranking only 11th in speed, Chastain ranks 9th in overall points, tied for 3rd in races with an on-track pass for the lead, 7th in cumulative races led (which adjusts laps led for differential race lengths), and 6th […]

Christopher Bell's Crash Avoidance Boosts Playoff Hopes

Christopher Bell sits twenty points above the playoff cutline entering Talladega to get into the Round of 8. As with his teammate Denny Hamlin, he likely will face an equipment disadvantage in tomorrow's race to some extent. Penske and RFK Fords have had a substantial speed advantage on drafting tracks this season, so he likely […]