Zane Smith's Uptick in Performance Is Less Than It Seems

Although Zane Smith has had a slight uptick in performance in recent weeks, it is more because he has been extremely lucky in overtime finishes than because he is running much better. Although Smith has finished 17th or better in five of the last seven races due to solid racecraft, he has only had one […...

John Hunter Nemechek Getting Faster, but Still Crashes Too Much

John Hunter Nemechek earned his first top ten in the NASCAR Cup Series in only his eighth start at Darlington in 2020, but that came with the old Gen 6 car, but his other three Darlington starts have all resulted in finishes of 30th or worse as he has consistently struggled to adapt to the […...

Corey LaJoie Can Run Well at Darlington if He Stops Overdriving

Although he was again drastically overshadowed by his teammate Carson Hocevar's second place qualifying run (the best in Spire Motorsports history), Corey LaJoie still qualified a decent 19th for this evening's Southern 500. Historically, this tended to be one of LaJoie's best tracks as his 15th-place finish in the 2021 Southern 500 was one of […...

Daniel Hemric Too Slow to Contend at Darlington

Daniel Hemric has a lackluster record at Darlington even relative to his own usual performance. In four Darlington starts, he has never finished better than 23rd or posted an average running position better than 24th with two DNFs in four starts. Hemric has admittedly been a rather clean driver this season with only ten incidents […...

Shane van Gisbergen's Strong Xfinity Series Run Means Little for Southern 500

Shane van Gisbergen had arguably his best oval performance in yesterday's NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Darlington. Although the race was marred by a spinout of Brandon Jones to end Race 1, SVG rallied to finish seventh and even passed Chase Elliott on track late in Stage 3 before the final caution. However, the Kaulig […...

Austin Dillon Must Win-and-In Again After Playoff Bid Revoked

After Austin Dillon's appeal of the revocation of his playoff bid was denied a second time, Dillon is once again in a position where he needs to win to stand any chance of making the playoffs. Although he has never led a lap at Darlington in his career, this was actually one of Dillon's best […...

Austin Cindric Seldom a Contender at Darlington

Although Austin Cindric has finished all five of his races at Darlington, he has never significantly contended with a best finish of 16th and a best average running position of 15th. Even with the uptick in speed that Team Penske has had over the summer, Cindric still tends to run worse than he qualifies in […...

Kyle Busch Needs to Win to Make Playoffs but Probably Won't

Kyle Busch needs to win tonight's Southern 500 to make the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs for a series-best twelfth consecutive time, but it seems rather unlikely. Busch has won at Darlington in the Cup Series, but it was way back in 2008. He has contended to win several other Cup Series races there, most recently […...

Harrison Burton Unlikely to Duplicate Daytona Drive

Although Harrison Burton delivered the Wood Brothers' 100th win in last weekend's Daytona 500, don't expect Burton to repeat the feat in this evening's Southern 500. Although Burton did finish sixth in the 2023 spring race at Darlington, that was Burton's only ever top ten finish on an unrestricted intermediate track. While it's likely that […...

Cody Ware Matches Best Finish for Father's Team

Rick Ware Racing has rarely had the speed to compete for top ten finishes (although Justin Haley is beginning to change that this year), but they have had a consistent knack for staying out of trouble in Daytona wreckfests and getting good finishes particularly at Daytona, where they have at least placed one car in […...

Harrison Burton's Win Renders Ross Chastain's Playoff Hopes Unlikely

Despite finishing 12th at Daytona, Ross Chastain's worst nightmare came true from a playoffs perspective as not only did he lose points to both Chris Buescher and Bubba Wallace, Harrison Burton's shock win made it far more difficult for Chastain and Wallace to advance to the playoffs as Chastain now sits 27 points behind Buescher […...

Kyle Busch Loses Overtime Duel, Likely Ending Playoff Bid

Kyle Busch's playoff bid effectively ended in Saturday's Coke Zero Sugar 400 despite a second-place finish, his best finish of the season and best at Daytona since 2019. Busch was in position to win and led at the end of regulation but got out to too large a lead on the final overtime restart, which […...

Chris Buescher's Playoff Bid Now Likely Safe

Chris Buescher did what he needed to do at Daytona. Although he failed to defend last year's victory, the driver who is arguably the least crash-prone driver in the NASCAR Cup Series was unable to avoid the second Big One but still rallied to a tenth place finish after being the only one of the […...

Christopher Bell Avoids Wrecks to Finish Third

Christopher Bell finished third at Daytona for the third time in the last four races in Saturday night's race, but unlike his previous third-place finishes in the 2023 and 2024 Daytona 500s, he wasn't much of a factor in the race as he and surprisingly the entire Joe Gibbs Racing team failed to lead a […...

Bubba Wallace Probably Likeliest To Win Himself Into The Playoffs

Bubba Wallace is generally regarded as one of the best drafters in the NASCAR Cup Series and not without reason. Although he has never won at Daytona, he has finished second three times and has led almost every Daytona race with the Next Gen chassis. Additionally, 23XI Racing seems to have consistently fast cars on […...

Zane Smith Eager To Prove Himself After Release From Trackhouse Racing

It was just announced Friday that Trackhouse Racing has released Zane Smith from their satellite Spire Racing operation for 2025. Although Smith is expected to reunite with Front Row Motorsports in an effective ride swap with Michael McDowell, his release likely means he will be eager to prove himself, and Daytona may be one of […...

Tyler Reddick Likely To Play It Safe To Protect Points Lead

Tyler Reddick took his first-ever lead in the NASCAR Cup Series championship with his win at Michigan. This season has marked a sudden change in style for Reddick as in 2022 and 2023 he had a more hotheaded aggressive style with more electrifying performances than this year but also more bad results. He is clearly […...

Daytona Might Be Ryan Preece's Last Chance to Save His Career

Ryan Preece's NASCAR Cup Series career is probably winding down after Stewart-Haas Racing's shutdown coupled with a dismal season where he is regularly being outrun by his less-experienced teammates. He has not led a single lap this year or posted an average running position better than 15th. As a result, Daytona is not merely a […...

Brad Keselowski's Extremely High Daytona Crash Rate Does Not Inspire Confidence

While Brad Keselowski has a reputation as one of the best drivers on drafting tracks, that's more because of his Talladega record than his more hit-or-miss Daytona record. Although he pushed his teammate Chris Buescher to victory in last year's race, he has crashed out of a staggering 11 of the last 15 races at […...

Carson Hocevar's Momentum Should Override Weak Daytona Record

Although Carson Hocevar has been the best rookie this year and is on something of a hot streak (especially considering the caliber of Spire Motorsports equipment), Daytona remains a big question mark for him since he crashed five laps into the Daytona 500 for his only DNF of the year in his only previous start […...

Daniel Hemric's Crash Avoidance Could Suit Him At Daytona

Although Daniel Hemric has been very slow in the NASCAR Cup Series this year, he has been smooth and polished and good at crash avoidance; his racecraft certainly exceeds his raw talent. That definitely suits him well for a track like Daytona, where half the field regularly crashes. Hemric's steady hand has given him three […...

Denny Hamlin's Race Strategy Likely Shifts After 75-Point Penalty

Denny Hamlin received a 75-point penalty for his team disassembling an engine before NASCAR could inspect it after his win at Bristol. Although the playoff point penalty he received was relatively minor in comparison, the 75-point penalty does effectively eliminate him from the regular-season championship. Counterintuitively, that will actually allow Hamlin to take more risks […...

Noah Gragson Becoming A Drafting Specialist With Nothing To Lose

While Noah Gragson hasn't really embarrassed himself in 2024 like he did the previous year, he hasn't really done much either and has been a very anonymous performer. The one exception came at Talladega, where he finished third and actually posted the best driver rating. Since he finished ninth in the Daytona 500 and also […...

Chase Elliott Likelier To Focus On Crash Avoidance Than Winning

Chase Elliott sits 10 points behind Tyler Reddick for the regular-season points lead with two races before the playoffs as he seeks to win his second regular-season championship. Although he has never yet won at Daytona unlike his father Bill, he has been consistently competitive, winning three poles and leading at some point in almost […...

Austin Dillon Probably Not Fast Enough To Deliver Another Cheap Shot

After Richard Childress's appeal of Austin Dillon's rough driving penalty at Richmond was denied, Dillon is once again in a must-win situation for the playoffs. He already proved twice on drafting tracks even before Richmond that he would wreck anyone for a playoff spot, wrecking Aric Almirola in the 2018 Daytona 500 and Austin Cindric […...

Ross Chastain Likelier To Try To Maximize Points Than Win

Ross Chastain qualified 24th at Daytona. He holds a one-point advantage over Bubba Wallace for the final spot in the playoffs after passing him on track on the final restart at Michigan to salvage a pyrrhic victory. Although he has never scored a top five finish at Daytona, he came very close in the Daytona […...

William Byron's Strong Passing May Bode Well At Daytona If He Doesn't Crash

William Byron starts seventh for Saturday night's Daytona race, higher than all other non-Ford drivers, and he's had a strong record there historically. In addition to winning the season-opening Daytona 500 in a tight duel with his teammate Alex Bowman, he also won his first race there four years ago in this race and also […...

Chris Buescher Likely To Play It Safe To Ensure A Finish

Chris Buescher led his teammate and car owner Brad Keselowski to a 1-2 finish in last year's Daytona night race, but this year he's in a much more precarious situation, as he is winless and sits only 16 points above the playoff cut line. Since he has a cushion over both Ross Chastain and Bubba […...

Alex Bowman Stronger In Daytona Qualifying Than In The Race

Despite his impressive streak of six consecutive front-row starts in the Daytona 500 from 2018 to 2023, Daytona hasn't been one of Alex Bowman's best tracks, as he has only led 42 laps there despite his qualifying dominance and has seldom factored in for a win on any drafting oval. This year's Daytona 500 was […...

Daniel Suarez Returns to Form After Mid-Season Slump

After a lackluster middle portion of the season, Daniel Suarez has begun to rebound as his eighth-place finish at Michigan was his third straight top ten, giving him a lot of momentum entering the playoffs. Although he ran nowhere near as well as he did at Richmond, those two races back-to-back actually mark the first […...