Ross Chastain Likely to Play It Safe at Indianapolis While on Playoff Bubble

Ross Chastain continues to perform well albeit in a very low-key manner as his baseline statistics do not capture the level of his performance. Nonetheless, Chastain now sits on the playoff bubble after crashes in two of the last three races. Although he has the speed to lead at times, it seems his cars go […]

Kyle Busch's Poor Season Performance Will Likely Outweigh Past Brickyard Success in 700th Start

By some metrics, Kyle Busch is one of NASCAR's most successful drivers at Indianapolis, as his 324 laps led there rank third all time and first among active drivers. However, Busch has been extremely hit-or-miss there, as all but 42 laps led came during his peak period of 2015-19 when he won back-to-back and cored […]

Harrison Burton Fast in Qualifying, but Will Probably Run Poorly Due at Indianapolis

Despite collecting his best career finish of third on the Indianapolis road course as a rookie in 2022, Harrison Burton has never competed at the Indianapolis oval so there is little to use to project his performance. While Team Penske is on a roll over the past month and Burton qualified 16th yesterday--giving him his […]

Despite Lack of Indianapolis Experience, Strong Pocono Run May Carry over for Josh Berry

Josh Berry makes his first start on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval in today's Brickyard 400. Since he did not become a regular in any NASCAR national series until after the oval had been replaced by the IMS road course, he had never made a start on the oval until yesterday's NASCAR Xfinity Series race, […]

Martin Truex Jr Won Stage 1 at Pocono, but Foiled by Strategy Yet Again

Martin Truex Jr won Stage 1 at Pocono yesterday after passing polesitter Ty Gibbs for the lead on the lap 18 restart, but he never saw the lead again after losing it on the ensuing stage break caution. Truex remained in the top 10 throughout the race, but his crew chief, James Small, continued his […]

Denny Hamlin Finished Second at Pocono but Matched Ryan Blaney in Performance

Denny Hamlin is the winningest NASCAR Cup Series driver at Pocono with seven wins, and he nearly added an eighth win to his ledger yesterday but came up a second short to Ryan Blaney to finish second in The Great American Getaway 400. Regardless, you could argue that Hamlin had the stronger race as he […]

Ryan Blaney Scores Penske's First Pocono Win Since 2011

Ryan Blaney claimed his second win of the season in yesterday's The Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway, his first win at the track since 2017 and Team Penske's first win there since Brad Keselowski won in 2011. Although Blaney only took the lead on a caution flag pit stop and never took the […]

Ty Gibbs Had Speed at Pocono, but Hindered by Strategy, Speeding Penalty, and Sour Engine

Ty Gibbs won his second career pole for yesterday's Pocono race but his racecraft and his dueling ability aren't yet as strong as his raw speed, so it isn't surprising that he got passed for the lead twice in the race, first by Martin Truex Jr on lap 18 and more unexpectedly by rookie Josh […]

Daniel Suárez Looks to Overcome Mid-Season Slump at One of His Better Tracks

Despite Daniel Suárez's heroic win at Atlanta, he has had a lowkey subpar season since then. His speed percentile of 39.16 is 30 percentage points slower than his Trackhouse Racing teammate Ross Chastain's 69.51; this is the second-largest speed differential between two full-time Cup Series teammates behind only Kyle Busch and Austin Dillon. However, Pocono […]

Daniel Hemric Likely Too Slow to Contend at Pocono Without a Strategy Play

Kaulig Racing has badly struggled in the NASCAR Cup Series this year, as Daniel Hemric drives the Next Gen car full-time for the first time in the Cup Series with several drivers rotating the second car. Hemric currently is the second-slowest full-timer in the Cup Series with a speed percentile of 24.11, only ahead of […]

Despite Lackluster Pocono Record, Justin Haley May Be a Worthy Underdog Pick

Justin Haley has been one of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season's quietest revelations. He and new crew chief, Chris Lawson, have taken a once-disreputable Rick Ware Racing and turned them into regular contenders for lead lap finishes, even giving the team its first top-10 on non-drafting ovals at Darlington and Gateway. They've also had […]

Ross Chastain's Improved Racecraft Canceled Out by Trackhouse Racing's Decline in Speed

In one sense, Ross Chastain has markedly improved, as he is causing fewer wrecks than he used to and is beating his Trackhouse Racing teammate, Daniel Suárez, substantially worse in both speed and finishes than he ever has before. However, it's easy to argue that Chastain is underachieving because he sits 12th in points despite […]

Despite Last Year's Top 10, Mediocrity Likely for Harrison Burton at Pocono

While Harrison Burton got an improbable eighth-place finish in last year's NASCAR Cup Series race at Pocono, considerably ahead of all three of his Team Penske quasi-teammates, don't expect him to repeat the feat in this weekend's race. Burton did not run nearly as well as his finish implied last year, as his average running […]

Ryan Blaney Not Great at Pocono, but Recent Momentum May Help Him

Although Ryan Blaney scored his first win at Pocono Raceway in 2017, it hasn't typically been one of his best tracks, as he's only led 51 laps in his careeer there. Amongst the tracks where Blaney has 10 or more NASCAR Cup Series starts, he has only led fewer laps at Darlington. Additionally, he has […]

Michael McDowell Recovers From Lap Down to Finish Fifth at Chicago Street Course

Michael McDowell got trapped a lap down after an early pit stop to switch to wet weather tires, but made an improbable comeback to finish fifth in yesterday's race at the Chicago Street Course. He significantly benefited from the crash that took out Christopher Bell and Martin Truex, Jr. but his bigger advantage was his […]

Kyle Larson Retains Points Lead Despite Stage 2 Crash

Although Kyle Larson won the pole for yesterday's Grant Park 165 in Chicago, he lost the lead to Ty Gibbs in the first corner and failed to lead any laps. However, he did run in the top five for the entire first 33 laps and was catching Gibbs for second when he overshot the corner […]

Joey Hand Drives From 38th to Finish Fourth in Chicago

Joey Hand made good use of the fastest cars he has ever had in the NASCAR Cup Series to finish fourth at Chicago despite starting 38th. Although Hand is better on road courses than street courses, he's still vastly more experienced on street courses and rain racing than the NASCAR regulars. He methodically carved through […]

Strategic Misfire and Late Race Crash Cost Christopher Bell Victory

For the second consecutive year, Christopher Bell dominated Stage 2 at the Chicago Street Course in treacherous conditions before bad luck befell him after getting stuck in traffic. Bell elected to switch from wet tires to slicks at the end of Stage 2 in yesterday's race, which dropped him to 13th. However, that move was […]

John Hunter Nemechek Not a Road Race Ace, but Solid at Chicago

Although John Hunter Nemechek has never finished better than 21st on a road course in the NASCAR Cup Series before, he may contend for his best-ever road course finish in today's Chicago Street Course race after qualifying 12th. While Nemechek didn't enter last year's race, he started the rain-shortened Xfinity Series race the previous day, […]

Despite Locking Himself Into Playoffs, Joey Logano Still Lacks Speed

While Joey Logano's shock Nashville victory locked him into the playoffs, he is continuing to have arguably his most mediocre season at Team Penske to date and don't expect that to change just because he won last Sunday. Logano's speed percentile in the Cup Series currently ranks 15th at 59.77%, which is substantially slower than […]

Corey LaJoie Looks to Replicate Season-Best Sonoma Run at Chicago

Much like his Spire Motorsports teammate Carson Hocevar, Corey LaJoie has done a good job finishing races but has also been involved in quite a few sloppy incidents where he overdrove and took out other cars. LaJoie has received the brunt of the criticism this year because Hocevar has regularly outrun him as a rookie […]

Erik Jones's Recent Road Course Record Too Mediocre to Contend

Erik Jones qualified 25th for this afternoon's race on the Chicago Street Course. Jones had a fairly anonymous run in this race last year when he started 21st and finished 16th. However, since Legacy Motor Club switched to Toyota, their cars have been slower than they were last year while Jones is still recovering from […]

Carson Hocevar Looks to Redeem Himself After Rough Driving Penalty

Carson Hocevar came under fire after last week's Nashville race for intentionally right-hooking Harrison Burton under caution, which resulted in a $50,000 fine and 25-point penalty, making it increasingly unlikely he will overtake Josh Berry for Rookie of the Year honors. It wasn't the first time Hocevar had engaged in such aberrant behavior. However, unlike […]

Austin Hill Makes NASCAR Cup Series Debut at Chicago Street Course

Austin Hill qualified 34th for his first Chicago Street Course race in the NASCAR Cup Series. He has driven at this track in the Xfinity Series twice before, finishing fifth in last year's rain-shortened event and 7th in yesterday's race, where he passed Sammy Smith for the lead on a restart and led eight laps […]

Joey Hand Gets First Competitive NASCAR Ride, but Faster on Road Courses than Street Courses

Although Joey Hand is making his NASCAR Cup Series debut on the Chicago Street Course, his twenty years as a sports car veteran give him more experience than the vast majority of NASCAR regulars. However, his 2011 win at Long Beach was the only one of his 18 IMSA wins that came on a street […]

Harrison Burton Seeks to Prove Himself After Losing Wood Brothers Ride

Last week was not a good one for Harrison Burton. In last Sunday's Nashville race, Carson Hocevar intentionally spun him out under caution. On Wednesday, it was revealed that Josh Berry will replace him in the No. 21 Wood Brothers Ford after the closure of Stewart-Haas Racing. Although Burton has been extremely mediocre in the […]

Bubba Wallace Was Solid at Nashville, but Playoff Chances Plummet After Joey Logano's Fluke Victory

Although Bubba Wallace was significantly outrun by the other top-tier Toyota teams at Nashville and only ranked 12th-fastest in speed, he stayed out of the pits on the lap 220 caution after pitting only laps earlier, putting him in a great position for a strong finish to hopefully close his deficit to Joey Logano for […]

Martin Truex Jr Had Steady Run, but Was Typically Foiled by Bad Luck at Nashville

Martin Truex Jr had a fairly anonymous race at Nashville by his standards, as he was the slowest Joe Gibbs Racing driver, but he didn't run badly either as he ranked sixth in speed and average running position despite being struck by bad luck--as usual. Although Truex ran in the back half of the top […]

Kyle Larson Takes Sole Possession of Points Lead After Consistent Yet Sloppy Drive

Kyle Larson delivered a typically strong performance in yesterday's race at Nashville to break his tie for the points lead with Chase Elliott and take a 20-point lead. Although Larson never led, he consistently ran in the top five for most of the race and ranked third behind Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick in speed, […]

Ross Chastain Wrecked Out at Nashville but Arguably Had Best Run of the Season

Although Ross Chastain spent most of yesterday's Ally 400 towards the back of the top twenty, his crew chief, Phil Surgen, made a brilliant strategy call to take two tires on the lap 220 caution, placing him in front of all the faster cars who took four tires. Most of the other drivers who stayed […]