Noah Gragson Qualifies Well But Probably Won't Sustain It

Despite not being particularly noted as a road racer, Noah Gragson delivered an unexpected ninth-place qualifying run for the lame-duck Stewart-Haas Racing team at Watkins Glen on Saturday. He surprisingly outqualified most of the pre-race favorites. However, he has never finished better than 14th in a road course in the NASCAR Cup Series and he's […]

Austin Cindric Weaker On Road Courses Than Advertised

Austin Cindric has a reputation as a road course specialist that is not entirely warranted. Although he was generally very good in his NASCAR Cup Series starts on road courses in 2021 and 2022, he has only managed two top ten finishes in the nine road course races since. It seems he may have had […]

Harrison Burton Not A Noted Road Racer

Harrison Burton did not get the good luck he needed at Atlanta to have any realistic chance of advancing in the NASCAR playoffs, but he probably wouldn't have been able to do it even if his Team Penske satellite team had dominated with the official Penske teams since Watkins Glen has never been a strong […]

Ryan Blaney Unlikely To Run Well At Watkins Glen

Ryan Blaney has never been very good on road courses relative to his performance on other tracks and this trend has been increasingly pronounced with the Next Gen chassis. He has never finished in the top five or seriously contended on any road or street course with this chassis. In his last 13 races on […]

Ty Gibbs Sits On Playoff Bubble But Was The Fastest Driver

In one of Toyota's least competitive races of the season, Ty Gibbs was their primary bright spot at Atlanta on Sunday. He vastly outran the other Toyota drivers and scored three of Toyota's six stage points. Gibbs first took the lead when he and Bubba Wallace stayed out of the pits during the caution for […]

Chase Elliott Does What Was Needed At Atlanta

Chase Elliott had a strong but somewhat anonymous run at Atlanta, spending most of the race in the back half of the top 10 on a day when all the Hendrick Motorsports cars were fast, but none of them seemed to have winning speed. Elliott had an extremely consistent run, finishing seventh in Stage 1, […]

Austin Cindric Wins Stage 2 At Atlanta In Best Career Drive

Although Austin Cindric came up short at Atlanta, he had probably his best ever NASCAR Cup Series run on a day that the three Team Penske teammates dominated in general. After finishing second to his teammate Ryan Blaney in the first stage, he outdueled Alex Bowman early in Stage 2 to take the lead, which […]

Harrison Burton's Playoff Cinderella Story Probably Ends With Last-Lap Crash

Harrison Burton's Penske satellite operation at Wood Brothers did benefit somewhat from Penske's unbeatable speed on Sunday at Atlanta with a 16th-place average running position (one of Burton's best of the season), but admittedly he was nowhere near as fast as the three Team Penske drivers, who each won a stage and had three of […]

Chase Briscoe's Stage 1 Crash Likely Eliminates Him From Round Of 12

Chase Briscoe was always going to be a playoff longshot because he has below average speed this year and even his rookie teammate Josh Berry has generally been faster. Briscoe likely needed a lot of luck to advance in the playoffs, but he did not get that in yesterday's Atlanta race when Kyle Larson hit […]

Ryan Blaney Narrowly Evades Crash To Finish Third And Take Points Lead

Although Ryan Blaney failed to win Sunday's Quaker State 400 at Atlanta, he ran well there as usual, earning a third-place finish. Blaney was the first driver to make a pass for the lead in the race, overtaking pole-sitter Michael McDowell on Lap 30 and leading the rest of Stage 1. Although he never led […]

Bubba Wallace Should Contend at Atlanta, but More Likely to Win at Talladega

Although Bubba Wallace narrowly missed the playoffs after Chase Briscoe's win in last week's Southern 500, drafting tracks tend to be his best track type. However, he tends to be better at Daytona and Talladega than at Atlanta, where he never earned a top ten finish until this year's winter race when he finished fifth. […]

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. Still Consistent on Drafting Tracks, but Leading Much Less

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. has been regarded as one of the leading drafting track specialists for many years now, and he did indeed earn a sixth-place finish in the winter race at Atlanta and a fourth at Talladega this year, but his speed decline that has persisted throughout the season has affected him at those tracks […]

Ryan Preece Unlikely to Benefit From Ford Speed at Atlanta

Ryan Preece has not had the speed of any of his Stewart-Haas Racing teammates this season, and that looks likely to continue in this afternoon's Atlanta race. While all three of his teammates have had bursts of speed on drafting tracks, Preece mostly hasn't since his JTG-Daugherty Racing days and his 21st place qualifying run […]

Michael McDowell Wins Series-Best Fifth Pole at Atlanta but Probably Lacks Racecraft to Win

Michael McDowell won his fifth pole of the season for this afternoon's Quaker State 400, tying Kyle Larson for the most this season. This marked his fourth consecutive pole on a drafting track, the longest such streak since Bill Elliott won six straight poles at Daytona and Talladega in 1985 and 1986. However, while qualifying […]

Erik Jones Has Lost Superspeedway Mojo Since Switch to Toyota

Erik Jones used to be regarded for many years as one of the best superspeedway drivers, but this seems to have faded in recent years. Although he did lead often in drafting races in the first year with the Next Gen chassis in 2022, he has seldom contended at those tracks or anywhere else since […]

Expect Carson Hocevar to Ride in the Back Again at Atlanta

Although Carson Hocevar had his first crash DNF since the Daytona 500 in last week's Southern 500, he has been surprisingly good at avoiding crashes despite his overaggressive style, which is the main reason he is beating Josh Berry for Rookie of the Year even though Berry has had more speed. He seems to be […]

Daniel Hemric Consistent on Drafting Tracks Despite Lack of Speed

Although Daniel Hemric has been one of the slowest drivers this season, his 14th-place qualifying run yesterday matches his best of the season at the spring Dover race and he's been genuinely quite consistent on drafting tracks because he's been less crash-prone than most other drivers this year and crash avoidance is often sufficient to […]

Noah Gragson Likely Running Too Anonymously to Contend at Atlanta

Noah Gragson has had a fairly anonymous season as his teammates Josh Berry and Chase Briscoe have outperformed him throughout the season, but Gragson has been most successful on the superspeedways as his best run of the season came in the spring Talladega race, where he finished third and posted the best driver rating in […]

Shane Van Gisbergen Has Drafting Speed, but Still Has a Lot to Learn

Shane van Gisbergen makes his Atlanta debut in the NASCAR Cup Series today from 28th but he has already run two NASCAR Xfinity Series races at the track. In the winter race, he unexpectedly finished third after dodging the wrecks but he hit the wall in yesterday's Xfinity race while running in the top ten, […]

Austin Dillon Mediocre at Atlanta Despite Strong Drafting Record

Although Austin Dillon has had some good finishes at Daytona and Talladega, he hasn't been nearly as successful at Atlanta either before or after it became a drafting track. Despite the speed his teammate Kyle Busch has regularly shown including losing out in the three-wide photo finish in the winter Atlanta race, Dillon has never […]

Harrison Burton Probably Won't Repeat Daytona Performance at Atlanta

After improbably winning the last drafting race in the NASCAR Cup Series at Daytona to make the playoffs, Harrison Burton sits in the awkward position of being a playoff contender without a ride for next year. As a result, Burton will probably be trying really hard to prove himself more to land a ride for […]

Chase Briscoe Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta Despite Unexpected Playoff Bid

After his successful Hail Mary in last week's Southern 500 granted him a playoff bid, Chase Briscoe qualified tenth for tomorrow's Atlanta race. He has been consistently fast in qualifying on drafting tracks with the Next Gen car as this marks his 11th top ten start in 17 races, but he hasn't run very well […]

Josh Berry Has Solid Speed, but Crash Frequency Raises Concerns for Atlanta

Josh Berry starts fourth at Atlanta, extending a bizarre trend where he has qualified in the top five for every odd-numbered race since Iowa. Although he's rarely thought of as a superspeedway driver, he was very fast at Daytona, where he had one of the best runs before he and Austin Cindric crashed while battling […]

Bubba Wallace Unable To Sustain Qualifying Pace To Secure Playoff Bid

Bubba Wallace put himself in a great position to win his way into the playoffs after winning the pole for Sunday's Southern 500, but after Kyle Larson beat him out of the pits on the first green-flag pit cycle, Wallace was never really a contender for the win afterward and slowly fell through the pack […]

Kyle Larson Outdueled In The End

After beating Bubba Wallace on the first green-flag pit cycle, Kyle Larson led the vast majority of Sunday's Southern 500 until his pit stop on the penultimate caution when Ross Chastain stayed out in a hail-mary attempt to make the playoffs. Although Larson restarted second, he ended up losing out when Chase Briscoe passed Larson, […]

Denny Hamlin Builds Momentum For Playoffs

While Denny Hamlin only finished seventh in Sunday's Southern 500, he ran better than that, as Kyle Larson and Chase Briscoe were probably the only drivers who outran him in the race. Although Hamlin only led when he went extra long on green-flag pit cycles, his advanced numbers were generally quite good, as he ranked […]

Ross Chastain's Hail-Mary Attempt To Make Playoffs Falls Short

After Harrison Burton's win at Daytona, Ross Chastain was always going to be a playoff longshot since Trackhouse Racing has generally lacked winning speed this year. Although Chastain ran outside of the top ten for the first two stages at Darlington, his crew chief Phil Surgen made a gutsy call to have Chastain make three […]

Kyle Busch Comes Up Just Short In Bid To Win His Way Into Playoffs

Despite Richard Childress Racing's significant speed deficit this season, Kyle Busch tried his best to win his way into the playoffs in Sunday's Southern 500. Busch's late decision to take four tires on the seventh caution allowed him to drive up from 10th to second on the final restart, but he stalled out when he […]

Trackhouse Racing's Focus on Ross Chastain Will Likely Doom Daniel Suarez at Darlington

After a dismal stretch in the spring and early summer, Daniel Suarez went on a recent run with three straight top tens surrounding his recent wedding, most notably the arguably most dominant run of his career at Richmond. That streak ended when his car caught fire after a pit stop at Daytona. However, since Suarez […]

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.'s Increased Crashing Will Probably Hurt Him at Darlington

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. failed to post a time in qualifying after a practice crash and will start 36th in this evening's Southern 500. Stenhouse has never had much success at Darlington, only posting a single top ten in the 2022 spring race, the first Cup Series Darlington race with the Next Gen car. Although he […]