RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target ~280 or the end of your draft
CURRENT ADP: 366
ANALYSIS: Hays was unexpectedly the first 2016 draftee to make it to the major leagues. The third-round pick begun the 2017 season in high-A and finished the year as a leadoff hitter in the big leagues. Hays only played 166 games in the minors before getting the call to the bigs, but he made his mark before he left, triple-slashing a pretty obscene .330/.370/.576 with 36 HR. The OBP (and walk rate) leave a bit to be desired, but when you’re crushing the ball like Hays is, there’s really no need to take a walk.
Unfortunately for Hays, his minor league success didn’t translate seamlessly to the majors. The 22-year-old triple-slashed an uninspiring .217/.238/.317 in 63 PA at the major league level in 2017. A look at Hays’ peripherals seem to indicate that he was simply overmatched last season. His soft hit rate was above league average (which is bad), he hit over 50% of his balls in play on the ground, and he struck out a whopping 25.4% of the time. On a more positive note, these are probably just growing pains of being fast-tracked to the major leagues. Hays’ minor league ground ball rate of 36.6% indicates that his 55.6% mark from last season’s brief stint in the majors will probably come down noticeably in 2018. Hays is currently the #23 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, so scouts have not soured on the youngster despite a poor showing last season. The righty is currently going as the 88th outfielder off the board, so you should have no trouble grabbing the likely Opening Day RF for the Orioles late in your draft and stashing him until he breaks out.
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