Austin Hays (OF, BAL) - 2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers

Austin Hays continues to bait me in as he shows flashes of upside. The appeal for Hays is the power potential, mixed with a little bit of speed. He had stolen 11 bases as recently as 2019 when combining his three stops. In 2020, he was in the 76th percentile for sprint speed and had 90ft-splits that are better the Kyle Tucker, Jonathan Villar and Francisco Lindor to name a few.

With the potential for power and speed comes good plate discipline. He has yet to post above an 18.1% strikeout rate in the MLB and showed similar success in the minors at various points so it could stick even over a larger sample. Hays has also managed to hit .309 and .279 respectively in his two small samples and with those BABIP numbers he has posted, it should be sustainable.

Austin Hays showed some growth in the contact metrics as well in 2020 as he improved the overall contact rate by 7.6 points up to 81.7%. The 92.7% Z-Contact% is elite and although he may regress slightly, the contact profile is a safe one even if it regresses closer to 2019's where he was league average across the board. Given his limited time in the Majors, the growth could continue or there may be a middle ground to land on.

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2020 Stats

Let's take a look at 2020. Hays would lead off at times last season and before he could really get going, he landed on the IL with a non-displaced rib fracture. Prior to landing on the IL, Hays looked terrible at the plate.

Hays posted:

• 1 HR
• .203/273/.246 Triple Slash
• .239 wOBA
• wRC+ of just 46
• K%: 19.5%
• GB%: 46.3%/ LD%: 14.8%/ FB%: 38.9%
• Pull%: 36.4%

It is said that the injury stemmed from being hit by a pitch on August 6th, 2020 and that he played through it before going on the IL. Here's the pitch that did the damage.

Upon returning from the IL, the power came with him. As well as an overall change in approach.

• 3 HR
• .377/404/.585Triple Slash
• .417wOBA
• wRC+ of 168
• K%: 17.5%
• GB%: 52.3%/ LD%: 25%/ FB%: 22.7%
• Pull%: 54.5%

Both are small samples but it appears as if the injury may have hampered his overall approach at the plate and upon returning he was able to go to a more pull-heavy approach, bring back the power production and be closer to the player we expected.

In terms of confidence, the Orioles did gain some in Hays down the stretch. They let him lead off or bat second in five of the final seven games of the season.

Furthermore, there are rumblings of the Orioles possibly trading Anthony Santander. Although it feels safe to say Hays is a starter, that would not only guarantee it, but should also secure top or middle of the order placement.

2021 Outlook

Currently, as of January 1, 2020, Austin Hays has an ADP of 223.54. That makes him the 62nd outfielder off the board. Overall, there is a path to close to and maybe even 10 stolen bases and 20-plus home runs and that will come with a decent batting average. Camden Yards will help the power play up even more and with the lineup improving around him a bit in terms of Mountcastle being up from the start and Mancini returning.

Hays should also have the chance to set the table for them and that could lead to solid run production. If he lands behind them, it is RBI production. Lineup spot will determine which stats to ultimately expect. Regardless, there is a path to playing time and with the skill set and home park, he is someone to give a look at.

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