Austin Ekeler vs. Brian Robinson - Who Should I Draft in 2024 Fantasy Football?

Ambiguous backfields are one of the most maddening. yet lucrative situations in fantasy football. While they can be a pain to try and parse from a workload standpoint, if you get the choice right in an ambiguous backfield and get a fantasy RB2 or better out of it, you've struck gold.

Think of names like James Conner, Kenneth Walker, and Jonathan Taylor in terms of backs previously in unclear situations throughout the past handful of seasons that became stalwart fantasy running backs. We have several unclear backfields to sort through in fantasy this season that could pay huge dividends, like the Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals, and the Cleveland Browns.

One of the most polarizing backfields to try and dissect certainly has to be the Washington Commanders backfield in 2024. Brian Robinson remains this season to the hefty lifting on early downs, but with Antonio Gibson moving north to New England, Austin Ekeler moves to D.C. to co-lead this backfield with Robinson. But which Commanders back do we draft in fantasy football this season?

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Austin Ekeler 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook

Ekeler's 2024 profile is volatile, to say the least. After seven seasons in Los Angeles, Ekeler makes to move east to Washington, where he won't have a firm hold at the lion's share of his backfield. Nor should he. The part of Ekeler's game that's made him stand out as a fantasy asset is his receiving ability, and his yards per route run has taken a nose dive from 2.74 in 2019 down to just 1.25 last season.

Even the rushing component is falling apart, with Ekeler's yards after contact per attempt falling for five straight seasons down to just 1.5 yards. It's the standard case of the walls coming down on a long-tenured fantasy asset and we don't want to be left holding the bag with Ekeler when the wheels completely fall off.  The other side of the argument is that Ekeler was playing through injuries, which is fair.

Austin Ekeler yards after contact per carry by season
2023 - 2.64
2022 - 2.99
2021 - 3.01
2020 - 3.14
2019 - 3.23
2018 - 3.63
Down every single season without a single break in the trend. 2023 was undoubtedly made worse by injury, but he was also showing major decline signs.

— Kyle Dvorchak (@kyletweetshere) August 14, 2024

We did already have some slowdown with Ekeler's metrics in both the rushing and receiving side, but the injuries just hastened that downturn. At 29 years old, now with rookie Jayden Daniels and Robinson entrenched with early-down and goal-line work, Ekeler's path toward paying off his RB35 ADP is thin, at best.

Brian Robinson 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook

Robinson has been an underrated fantasy asset the last two seasons, where we could give him a pass for some of the efficiency stuff considering he was shot and missed the first four weeks of 2022. His combined 2023 stat line looks pretty solid, with over 1,000 yards from scrimmage, 43 targets, and nine total touchdowns on the campaign.

His peripheral statistics show somebody who can do more with a decent level of efficiency, ranking 22nd in explosive run rate and his yards after contact per attempt ranking 13th in the NFL last season. The receiving work shows a surprising level of competency with a 1.68 yards per route run, finishing fifth among all NFL running backs who ran at least 100 routes.

Jayden Daniels was out there for 9 snaps on the opening drive

Brian Robinson played 8 to Austin Ekeler's 1

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) August 17, 2024

Ekeler now stands to at least take a healthy portion of the receiving work from Robinson, but let's not count Robinson out of some of that receiving work with how solid he's been. With a good chunk of the touchdown equity and early-down work set for Robinson, he should be able to thrive even if Ekeler takes some of Robinson's receiving work.

At a bit higher ADP than Ekeler at RB29, Robinson is still a solid value, where he adds the receiving component if something happens to Ekeler. With a ton of stand-alone value, Robinson still retains some contingent upside, which is fantastic for a back with an ADP that low.

Who Should I Draft?

So between Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson, who should you draft in 2024 fantasy football? For me, the choice is clear with Brian Robinson. He's not on the downside of his career and if Ekeler is truly dust, Robinson can capably carry a three-down role, including the receiving work, with no problem.

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