Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts (Week 10)

Welcome to our surprising starts series. Every week we’ll be going over a few surprising starting pitcher performances around the majors to determine whether these starts were smoke and mirrors or something more.

This week we're looking at two pitchers who came back from injury, though the injuries were of differing severity. We're also looking at a pitcher that came back from a disastrous 2017 rookie campaign.

Joe Musgrove has been dominant in his first two starts of the season and held the Cubs to one run last week. Nathan Eovaldi reminded us that he exists with six no-hit innings against the Athletics. Dylan Covey kept up his surprising season with a solid start against the Brewers.

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Real Deal or Mirage?

Joe Musgrove, Pittsburgh Pirates

2017 Stats w/ HOU: 109.1 IP, 4.77 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 3.5 K/BB ratio

05/30 vs. CHC: 7 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 5 K

Musgrove has been great in two starts since returning from the disabled list with a shoulder strain. He has allowed one run in 14 innings and has a 3.0 K/BB ratio against the Cardinals and the Cubs at home. Much like Daniel Mengden, whom we looked at last week, Musgrove has a deep and well-rounded pitch arsenal. He throws three different fastballs, a four-seamer, a sinker, and a cutter. He also throws a slider and changeup. Musgrove threw a show-me curveball when he was with the Astros, but hasn’t used that pitch yet this season. He has above average fastball velocity, averaging 95 MPH with his four-seamer, but none of these pitches are major standouts. His slider is the closest thing to a strikeout pitch, and he throws it often when ahead in the count, but it has a below average 16% whiff rate this season and 14.6% whiff rate all time. His changeup isn’t far behind with a 12% whiff rate this season and 17.9% whiff rate all time. Here’s a look at Musgrove’s slider from his start against the Cardinals.

And here’s a changeup.

Musgrove’s slider is his best strikeout pitch, and while it doesn’t have a great swinging strike rate it does have a 43% o-swing rate through two starts. His changeup also has a 41.2% o-swing rate this season. Because he does a such a good job of pounding the strike zone he can get hitters to chase breaking balls when he throws them. We shouldn’t expect a great strikeout rate, or even an above average one, but he should be able to maintain about a 21-22% strikeout rate, which is in line with his career average.

Musgrove’s calling card throughout the minors was impeccable control and command of the strike zone. Once he got above rookie ball Musgrove never had a walk rate higher than 3.5% at any level of the minors. The combination of a large repertoire and extremely low walk rate make both Miles Mikolas and Daniel Mengden easy comparisons. The problem with that, however, is that Musgrove has not been able to translate his superior control from the minors to the majors. He has a 6.2% walk rate in the big leagues, which is still above average, but it doesn’t put him in elite territory. He walked four in this start against the Cubs and allowed 11 total baserunners yet only one run crossed the plate. There are questions about the sustainability of both Milokas’ and Mengden’s production, but neither has allowed double digit baserunners or walked more than two hitters in a start this season. Musgrove’s path to success is as a command specialist, and if everything comes together he could be like Mikolas or Mengden with a better strikeout rate. He has a better swinging strike rate, chase rate, and track record of strikeouts than those two. Right now, he is a solid yet unspectacular back of the rotation starter.

Verdict:

Musgrove needs to show the same elite control he displayed in the minors before turning into something special. He is still worth picking up in mixed leagues and using as a back-end starter even if he doesn’t put it all together this season. The ceiling isn’t as high with Musgrove compared to other young pitchers, but there is a decent floor with him.

 
Dylan Covey, Chicago White Sox

2017 Stats: 70 IP, 7.71 ERA. 7.20 FIP, 1.21 K/BB ratio

06/03 vs. MIL: 5 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 3 BB, 7 K

Covey looked unfit for major league competition in 2017, but has a 2.82 ERA through four starts this season and is starting to put himself on the mixed league radar. The biggest difference between Covey this season and last is his transition to a sinkerball pitcher. He is throwing his sinker 66.4% of the time this season and has only thrown 12 four-seamers total. He is also throwing harder this season. Covey’s fastball is averaging 94.6 MPH compared to 93 MPH last season. He throws a slider, curveball, and split-changeup as breaking balls, but Covey is essentially one of the league’s most extreme sinkerballers. Here’s a look at a few sinkers from Covey.

And another

The sinker isn’t a big swing-and-miss pitch for anyone, and the top five qualified pitchers in sinker usage all have swinging strike rates under 10%. Even if the strikeouts aren't there, Covey’s has some wicked late movement that will help him induce favorable contact. As a result Covey hasn’t allowed a home run yet and he has a 63.2% groundball rate this season. Of course both the home run rate and groundball rate are unsustainable, but he never had a groundball rate below 56% at any level of the minors.  A low home run rate seems possible too even in hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field. Covey has a 4.9 degree average launch angle against, is in the top 4% of average flyball distance (among pitchers with 50 or more batted ball events), and has consistently had above average home run rates in the minor leagues.

Covey’s biggest strength should be his groundball rate, but he has deficiencies with a poor strikeout rate and high walk rate. Sinkerballers generally don’t have high strikeout rates. Five qualified starters throw their sinker at least 50% of the time, and only Chad Kuhl has a strikeout rate greater than 8 K/9. He also has a high walk rate, which means that his WHIP, which currently sits a 1.43, will likely remain higher than average. Plus he is on one of the worst teams in baseball, making wins hard to find. He is a lot like Clayton Richard but with worse strikeout potential and less volume. Richard always has a high walk rate and WHIP andis on a bad team, but Richard can be usable in good matchups. Covey is also usable in good matchups, but he should not be trusted beyond that. There is extreme volatility in this profile and he doesn't have the upside to make the gamble worth it in most scenarios.

Verdict:

Covey is using a sinker-heavy approach to limit home runs and flyballs. He will not be a good source of strikeouts, wins, or WHIP given his current situation and pitching style. That leaves us with a matchup-based pitcher with bad blowup potential. Stream responsibly.

 
Nathan Eovaldi, Tampa Bay Rays

2016 Stats w/ NYY: 124.2 IP, 4.76 ERA, 4.98 FIP, 2.43 K/BB ratio

05/31 @ OAK: 6 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Eovaldi hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2016 due to his second Tommy John Surgery, but he put up six no-hit innings against the Athletics in his season debut. Before going down with this injury Eovaldi was a former top prospect with high velocity that could not put it all together. He has a career 17% strikeout rate despite a 98 MPH fastball. His fastball averaged 98.4 MPH during this start and topped out at 100.2 MPH. It’s encouraging to see that he didn’t lose velocity, as it has been his best attribute throughout his career. In addition to his fastball Eovaldi features a cutter, a splitter, and a slider. The splitter is his best secondary pitch, as batters are hitting just .222 with a .117 ISO and 17% whiff rate against it all time. Three of the seven swinging strikes Eovaldi got in this start came from his splitter, and since he began using the splitter more heavily in 2015 his swinging strike rate had risen in 2015 and 2016, though his career high is still only 9.3%.

It’s hard to trust Eovaldi because the last time we saw him he was not adjusting well to the home run uptick. After never allowing more than 0.75 HR/9 in a season Eovaldi couldn’t keep the ball in the yard and allowed 1.66 HR/9 in 2016. Some of that came down to an aberrant 18.7% HR/FB ratio, but since it has been so long between starts for him it’s hard to know whether home runs will continue to be an issue. His home ballpark in Tampa Bay is more pitcher friendly than Yankee stadium, but he’ll still be pitching in the AL East.

Can Eovaldi go back to the pitcher he was before the injury? It seems realistic, but that pitcher wasn’t all that good for fantasy anyway. Like Dylan Covey it’s hard to see the upside with Eovaldi. He doesn’t get a lot of strikeouts, he has a career 1.37 WHIP and 4.25 SIERA, and he is on a team that won’t support him for many wins. He didn’t do much in this start that was different from what he did earlier in his career. He is best used as a streamer in good matchups until we see more from him. Watch his control carefully. Control is typically the last piece to return for a pitcher after Tommy John Surgery, and one of Eovaldi’s strengths prior to surgery was his ability to limit walks. If his control wavers and the home runs don’t stop then there could be trouble.

Verdict:

If you liked Eovaldi before his second Tommy John surgery then he’ll probably be a similar pitcher. That type pitcher is on the fringes of usefulness in a standard mixed league, but can be streamed in favorable matchups. If walk or home run issues pop up, run away fast.

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