Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts from Week 7

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?" Each week, we look at lower-owned starting pitchers who have performed unexpectedly well in their last outing(s).

It was another exciting week of surprising starts, and with playoff time already upon us now is when September heroes emerge and become legends, at least in the storied history of our personal fantasy leagues. This week we're looking at three guys who could become that fantasy legend in the truncated 2020 season. Seth Lugo has continued to thrive after an unexpected move to the rotation with his best outing yet, Tony Gonsolin celebrated the Ross Stripling trade with another dominant performance, and Tarik Skubal notched his first career career quality start.

Roster percentage is based on Yahoo leagues and is accurate as of 09/07/2020. The goal of this article is to look at pitchers who are either still widely available or were hot waiver wire pickups after good starts, and to analyze whether they're a flash-in-the-pan or if there's any staying power.

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Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

11% Rostered

2020 Stats (prior to this start): 9.1 IP, 6.75 ERA, 6.58 FIP, 14.3% K-BB%

09/05 @ MIN: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

Skubal has been one of many top pitching prospects to make his debut in 2020, but unlike many other hyped names, Skubal had struggled to make an impact prior to this start. Detroit gave him an incredibly short leash to begin with, as Skubal pitched four total innings over his first two starts. He made it a little deeper the third time out, going five innings against the Twins, but the young lefty finally went deep enough to earn his first career quality start against those same Twins on Saturday. With the hype having died down on Skubal he is available in over 80% of leagues, and the big name probably has fantasy managers wondering if Skubal is poised to be the next rookie pitcher to put up big numbers.

Skubal is perhaps best known for the monster strikeout rates he put up in the minors. Skubal always maintained a strikeout rate of 30% or better as a minor leaguer, but posted an absurd 48.2% strikeout rate in 42.1 IP at Double-A last year. That was good for a 17.43 K/9, which is a number you only expect to see from an elite reliever. Skubal was able to rack up those strikeouts with a four-pitch arsenal consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. It’s a rather complete repertoire for a young pitcher, and if he’s able to command all four pitches effectively Skubal should find success at the big league level.

The fastball and slider were Skubal’s most highly regarded pitches as a prospect, and it’s easy to see why after this start. He averaged 94.6 MPH with the heater in this start, and generated eight of his 14 swinging strikes with his fastball. Skubal throws hard for a lefty, and his 95 MPH average fastball velocity is the fourth highest among southpaw starters this season, behind just Jesus Luzardo, Blake Snell, and Yusei Kikuchi (min. 10 IP). His 2441 RPM on the fastball also puts him in the 86^th percentile of fastball spin rate, and with 4.2 inches of break Skubal’s fastball is able to play above its velocity, and it’s a big reason why he’s had a 10.9% SwStr rate on his fastball this year. Here's one of his better four-seamers from this outing.

It's very tough for hitters to catch up to a 95 MPH fastball like that high in the zone. A good fastball can take a pitcher a long way, but he needs at least one worthwhile secondary pitch to sustain success in the bigs. Luckily for Skubal, he has more than one.

The slider has long been the standout among Skubal’s secondary offerings, and that hasn’t change through his first four starts. Opponents are hitting just .214 with a .286 SLG and .273 wOBA against the pitch thus far, and have a 15.7% SwStr rate on Skubal’s slider. His slider doesn’t blow hitters away like some of the game’s best, but it’s an above average offering that coupled with his fastball should allow Skubal to generate strikeouts, although it’s unlikely he’d do so at a 30% or better clip like he did in the minors.

Skubal’s other two pitches, the curveball and changeup, are clearly a notch or two below his fastball and slider. Skubal has only thrown 22 curveballs this season, and batters are 1-for-1 with a single against the pitch. Poor command has been a knock on Skubal all throughout his minor league career, and with just a 13.6% zone rate on his curve it’s clear that he doesn’t have much command with this one yet. A pitcher doesn’t necessarily want to pound the zone with his curveball, but 13.6% is absurdly low. The curveball is not a pitch we should expect much from for Skubal at this point.

His changeup is a bit more critical to his success, as Skubal uses his changeup exclusively against right-handed batters. Righties have eaten him alive this season for a .302 BA, .379 wOBA, and all three of his home runs. They have only hit .250 on his changeup, but the pitch has a .479 xBA and 1.113 xSLG. Yes, Statcast projects batters to slug over 1.000 off Skubal’s changeup. Obviously, this is a small sample size as Skubal has only thrown 40 changeups all year, but these ugly numbers reveal what could be a larger problem for Skubal, which is an inability to put away opposite handed batters.

Skubal hasn’t been afraid to use his slider against righties when ahead in the count, going to it 26% of the time when ahead and 29% of the time with two strikes, but Skubal is in big trouble if he falls behind against righties. His fastball is a plus offering, but right-handed major league hitters can still feast on fastballs from a lefty. Righties have crushed Skubal’s fastball for a .333 AVG and .593 SLG thus far, and as mentioned above results against the changeup haven’t been much better. Until he better develops his changeup, improves his command, and/or gains more confidence in his slider against righties, Skubal will continue to struggle against opposite handed hitters. It’s doubtful that he’ll be able to fix all that over the last three weeks of the season, os beware of Skubal against a team with a penchant for mashing lefties.

Skubal has plenty of upside and has shown several positives traits during his short time in the majors this season, but there’s enough here to scare me away in tough matchups. In a longer season it would be interesting to watch whether Skubal could make the necessary adjustments midseason, but with just three weeks remaining and championship glory on the line it’s hard to trust such a raw arm. On the plus side, the downside could be mitigated by Skubal’s short leash. Detroit has been so cautious with their prized prospect they would likely yank him before he completely destroys your ratios. Especially since Detroit is a surprise wild card contender and can’t afford to let Skubal ride out rough patches while they jockey for playoff positioning. In soft matchups Skubal isn’t the worst streaming option, but he’s hard to trust in tough matchups or in critical fantasy weeks.

Verdict: A plus fastball-slider combo should give Skubal good strikeout upside, but command issues, a quick hook, and struggles against righties limit Skubal’s overall ceiling. It wouldn’t surprise me if Skubal’s last start was his only quality start all year. His next start is at St. Louis against a Cardinals lineup that had a 109 wRC+ against lefties this season, along with the second-lowest strikeout rate against southpaws at 18.7%. The risk does not outweigh the reward in that matchup.

Seth Lugo, New York Mets

76% Rostered

2020 Stats (prior to this start, SP/RP): 17 IP, 2.12 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 29.2% K-BB%

09/05 vs. PHI: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K

Seth Lugo’s 2020 numbers and high roster percentage make him seem like an unlikely candidate for a column like this, but the reason he’s on so many teams and has outstanding stats is because of his work as a reliever. Lugo’s 2.61 ERA and 5.5 K/BB ratio out of the pen earned him the closer role for the Mets, but his tenure as closer was short-lived, as the starter-desperate Mets threw Lugo in the rotation, looking for some semblance of stability behind Jacob deGrom. Lugo had been great in his first two starts this year, allowing one earned run total, but never made it through four innings. Lugo finally completed five innings on Saturday, and was absolutely brilliant in the process, striking out eight Phillies while allowing just one run. The Mets say Lugo is ready to go even deeper, and if that’s true he could be an excellent contributor down the stretch. Those who added Lugo were expecting to get a dominant reliever, but could they have lucked into a dominant starter instead?

For an ex-reliever Lugo has a pretty deep arsenal, using a four-seam fastball, sinker, curveeball, slider, and changeup. He also mixes things up well, using everything but the changeup at least 18% of the time. Lugo may be best known for his curveball, which averages 3203 RPM, giving him the third-best curveball spin rate in the majors (min. 250 pitches). This spinning hook has frustrated opposing hitters this season for a .118 AVG and .294 SLG, along with a 15.3% SwStr rate. Even when batters make contact they can’t do much with the pitch, as it has an 86.1 MPH average exit velocity and a 57.1% groundball rate this year. The pitch also gorgeous to watch, so here are a few examples from this start.

That pitch is so dirty I need to take a shower after watching it. And while Lugo’s physics-defying bender is the gem of his arsenal and should continue to make hitters look foolish, this Metropolitan has more to offer than his curve.

From a results perspective, Seth Lugo’s slider has been horrible this season. Batters are hitting .462 with a .238 wOBA against the pitch, but the underlying numbers tell a more favorable story. Lugo has a 22.2% SwStr rate with his slider, and batters have a .583 BABIP despite just an 83.6 MPH average exit velocity and a 58.3% groundball rate against. The .294 xBA and .294 xwOBA suggest better days ahead for Lugo’s slider. The pitch doesn’t light up a Statcast chart quite like the curveball does, but it should serve as an effective third pitch to complement the curveball and fastballs.

Speaking of Lugo’s fastballs, they have both been pretty good offerings in their own right this season. He uses both a four-seamer about equally, and batters have not been able to muster much against either offering, as opponents are hitting under .180 against both pitches. Lugo’s four-seamer has always given hitters fits, as they are hitting .177 with a 10.9% SwStr rate against the pitch all time, and it has been effective both as a starter and reliever. The sinker is a different story, as the pitch got creamed during Lugo’s 2017 campaign as a starter for a .311 average and .387 wOBA. The important thing to watch here is Lugo’s velocity, as he averaged just 91 MPH with his sinker in 2017, a career low during the only year where Lugo worked primarily as a starter. If Lugo’s velocity dips as he stretches out to go deeper and deeper into games, his fastball could become very hittable. Below average velocity was one of the main reasons Lugo couldn't hack it as a starter the first time around, and if he can’t keep it around 93-94 he could struggle again.

Even though Lugo was viewed as a failed starter prior to this year, his 2017 campaign really wasn’t that bad. Sure, he had a 4.71 ERA, but a 3.95 FIP, 4.18 xFIP, and 3.4 K/BB ratio are solid numbers in today’s game. With how poorly some of the Mets’ starters have been this year, they would gladly take that performance as a worst-case scenario. And his stint as a reliever has allowed Lugo’s dazzling curveball to flourish, giving him a hammer strikeout pitch in a repertoire of solid stuff. Chances are Lugo isn’t available in most leagues, but if you added him in hopes of getting a closer, you may have wound up with a high-upside starter instead. Lugo is worth adding in 12-team mixed leagues or deeper.

Verdict: Lugo’s curveball is as pretty as ever, and his well-rounded pitch arsenal should allow him to routinely pitch five innings or deeper now that Lugo is stretched out. His next start against the Blue Jays in Buffalo is a little scary, but he’s been good enough to earn our trust for that one.

Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers

56% Rostered

2020 Stats (prior to this start): 17.2 IP, 0.51 ERA, 2.24 FIP, 18.5% K-BB%

09/05 vs. COL: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 R (1 ER), 0 BB, 8 K

Every year the Dodgers seem to have at least one exciting emergent arm that looks ready dominate every fifth turn, only to be jerked around between the rotation, bullpen, injured list and minor leagues. Whether it be Ross Stripling, Alex Wood, Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, or countless other names, every fantasy player has been frustrated by the Dodgers pitching management at some point in the past. It’s as if they only care about winning big league games, and not the thousands of fantasy managers that rely on these pitchers. Well, this year that man in Tony Gonsolin, a consensus top-10 Dodgers’ prospect in a loaded farm system. The Dodgers did us a favor at the trade deadline, dealing Ross Stripling to the Blue Jays and solidifying Gonsolin’s role as a starter. It was an easy move for them, as the young righty has been spectacular in five starts, sporting an immaculate 0.76 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. Obviously, Gonsolin can’t keep those numbers up over an extended period, but just how good can he be?

Scouts raved over Gonsolin’s raw stuff, highlighted by a filthy split-change that helped him maintain at least a 26.2% strikeout rate at every level of the minors in his last three seasons. Gonsolin has some cheese to go along with that splitter as well, as he’s averaged 95.2 MPH with his fastball this season, and has a max velocity of 97.9 MPH. This combination alone can be devastating, but unlike many young pitchers Gonsolin has two complementary pitches in his slider and curveball to round out his arsenal.

Gonsolin’s splitter is what catapulted his stock as a prospect, and the pitch has been as advertised thus far. Batters are hitting just .208 with a .275 wOBA against the pitch, and with a -3-degree average launch angle and 81 MPH average exit velocity, batters haven’t been able to make solid contact on Gonsolin’s splitter. With 3.1 inches of break, Gonsolin’s splitter has the highest horizontal movement in the majors (min. 100 pitches). Take a look at this beauty from his most recent start.

It’s easy to see why Gonsolin was so hyped with this weapon at his disposal. Looking at his splitter I can’t help but draw comparisons to Kevin Gausman. Many may cringe at that comp, but Gausman was once a top prospect known for his above average velocity and filthy split-change. Gonsolin possesses those same attributes, but unlike Gausman, Gonsolin appears to have an effective third pitch.

No one can touch Gonsolin’s slider, at least not so far, as Gonsolin has not surrendered a hit with his slider this season. He has been a little lucky, but even if he regresses to his .088 xBA he’ll probably be okay. His slider has a monster 32.6% swinging strike rate as well, and he generated eight whiffs on 14 pitches with the slider in this start against Colorado. Gonsolin’s slider was always an afterthought, living in the shadow of his splitter and fastball, but it’s been a quality offering for him thus far, and has above average break for a slider. Here was a pretty good one from this start.

If that’s considered your third best pitch, you are in pretty good shape on a big league mound. It’s been a small sample size, but there’s a lot to like about what Gonsolin has done thus far. He won’t sustain a 0.76 ERA all year, but he should be able to deliver solid production as a waiver wire add. The biggest concern with him is control, as Gonsolin had an 11% walk rate at Triple-A last season. He has a 53.3% zone rate this season, so it would be difficult to have a double digit walk rate with how much Gonsolin has pounded the zone, but command and control have always been the knock on Gonsolin as a prospect. It would be hard to imagine him maintaining his current 5.8% walk rate based on his history, but unless the walks really start to pile up he should still be effective.

Verdict: Three above average pitches have allowed Gonsolin to dominate at the major league level, and while no one should expect him to maintain a 0.76 ERA, Gonsolin should be owned in all leagues and started in most matchups. My biggest concern is a short leash, as he hasn't thrown more than 84 pitches in an outing this year. He’ll be a popular 2021 breakout candidate if he finishes strong, and if not I’ll gladly scoop him up at a discount in drafts next year.

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