X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts from Week 16

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?" Each week, we look at lower-owned starting pitchers who have performed unexpectedly well in their last outing(s).

It's Anderson week this week, as we take a deep dive on two Andersons that have been putting up good numbers as of late. Chase Anderson has been doing some interesting things in Milwaukee, while Brett Anderson has defied conventional logic going on two months now.

Ownership is based on Yahoo leagues and is accurate as of 07/15/2019. The goal of this article is to look at pitchers widely available that could be useful in fantasy, whether they have been recently added by a ton of teams or are still sitting on waivers.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Chase Anderson, Milwaukee Brewers

15% Owned

2019 Stats (prior to this start): 66.2 IP, 4.32 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 15.2% K-BB%

07/12 vs. SF: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K

Anderson started the season in the bullpen, but won his rotation spot back in late April and has been a mainstay for Milwaukee every fifth day. While never the most exciting pitcher, Anderson had a big time break out in 2017, only to follow it up with a complete break down in 2018. We knew Anderson wouldn’t maintain his 2.74 ERA from 2017, but there were legitimate signs of improvement back then that made his breakout believable. The two main things for him were increased fastball velocity (he upped the heat to 93.1 MPH after tossing 91 every year prior) and a more complete repertoire (Anderson threw five different pitches more than 10% of the time in 2017). Those improvements reverted in 2018, but if Anderson could recapture those skills it’s feasible to see him transitioning back into fantasy relevance.

The first one is easy, and that’s fastball velocity. Anderson has indeed seen velocity gains this season, averaging 93.3 MPH with his four-seamer this year. No, his ten innings in the bullpen didn’t juice that number either, as Anderson has a 93.6 MPH average fastball velocity since rejoining the rotation on April 20. His velocity increase two years ago was so crucial to his success because it made Anderson’s changeup more deceptive and effective. The changeup was always Anderson’s money pitch, and the velocity increase made it thrive. Therefore, as his fastball velocity bounces back, so does his performance, right? The answer to that is a bit tricky. Anderson currently has the best swinging strike rate of his career at 11.8%, and while his changeup has a robust 17.7% SwStr, it’s actually his fastball that’s made up a large part of that spike.

Anderson is following the same hip millennial trend many pitchers are following these days, which is the high fastball. Here is a comparison between his 2017 fastball heatmap (left, brooksbaseball.net) and his 2019 fastball heatmap (right).

 

Owners should get excited about seeing all that maroon and red up in the zone for Anderson, as high fastball tend to induce more whiffs than low or mid fastballs. The proof is in the pudding too. Anderson has a 13.5% SwStr rate with his four-seam fastball this season, which is more than 5% above his career average and more than 3% higher than his fastball swinging strike rate in 2017. Anderson’s current 23.5% strikeout rate is a career high, and it seems sustainable based on the improvements he made with his fastball, along with the strong results he’s getting from his changeup. That being said, Anderson still has his share of flaws owners should take into consideration before hopping aboard this train.

First, and this one is quite frustrating, is Anderson’s habitual short leash. He’s averaging 4.69 innings per start this season, a pathetic number, even by modern standards. Brewers manager Craig Counsell seems to lack trust in Anderson. The hook comes at the first sign of trouble. He has one (one!) quality start all season. Even David Hess has somehow managed two quality starts this season. The other major concern one should have with Anderson is his home run rate. A 41% flyball rate and 39.4% hard hit rate mix together like water and oil, and the problem is exacerbated by Anderson’s home ballpark. His currently home run rate is perfectly league average, but his HR/FB rate is slightly below average, and that 4.63 xFIP may foretell the future for Anderson. He’s fine in a one off start against a team like San Francisco, but Anderson won’t win you your league. He probably won’t even win you your week.

Verdict:

The fastball velocity is back, and Anderson is mixing high heat along with his killer changeup. A lack of longevity and home run issues cap his usefulness to matchup streamer, but one could do worse than throwing Anderson out there and hoping for the best. The Brewers are doing it, after all. Use Anderson in soft matchups, but don’t expect much long term run out of him.

 

Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics

28% Owned

2019 Stats (prior to this start): 102.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 4.54 FIP, 4.4% K-BB%

07/14 vs. CWS: 6.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

There are many things on this planet that baffle me. Quantum physics, microbiology, Instagram, why my check engine keeps coming on no matter how many sensors I replace, but nothing causes this writer more confusion, or catalyzes an existential crisis quite like sustained success from Brett Anderson. Because it’s not just this start against the White Sox that has my eye on him, it’s the past two months. Anderson has allowed three or fewer runs in nine of his last ten starts. Yes, he got toasted by the Rays for seven earned in the one start where he failed to meet the three run or fewer threshold, but Anderson still has a 3.28 ERA since May 20. If we gave him a free pass on that Rays start (which we aren’t doing), his ERA over that stretch is around 2.37. With two months of sustained results, it’s time to deep dive into Brett Anderson and find out once and for all, if he’s for real.

Perhaps that opening salvo felt a little strong, maybe even biased against Anderson. That would be a fair criticism, but I’d like to counter that hypothetical critique with Anderson’s 4.6% K-BB%. Many car loans have a higher rate than that. His 11.9% K rate isn’t just the lowest among qualified starters, it’s the lowest by more than 3%. His 5.34 SIERA is tied for third-worst among qualified starters, while his .280 xBA is seventh-worst. There just isn’t much to like in this profile, unfortunately. There is one thing Anderson does well, and has always done well, and that’s induce groundballs.

Anderson has upped his sinker usage to 41% this season, a career high. He still has a 53% groundball rate, which is seventh-best in the majors, but below Anderson’s career average. Anderson has built a career on inducing grounders, and at his best would maintain a groundball rate above 60%. With increased sinker usage, one would expect Anderson’s groundball rate to be around that 60% mark, instead of down in the low 50% range. The problem is that Anderson’s sinker is losing effectiveness. The pitch has lost 1.5 MPH and two inches off drop off it’s peak, and as a result Anderson has just a 57.7% groundball rate with the pitch compared to a 66.4% career average. A 57.7% groundball rate on a sinker would be passable for a pitcher that brings something else to the table, but there’s nothing for Anderson to fall back on. Lots of veteran pitchers extend their careers by de-emphasizing their diminished fastball and heavily incorporating a breaking ball into their pitch mix. What’s Brett Anderson supposed to do? Since 2016 batters are hitting .250 against his slider, and .431 against his curveball. Brett Anderson has walked a tightrope for most of his career, but now the line is starting to fray.

Verdict:

No strikeouts, no effective pitches, and poor peripherals. There is zero reason to believe Anderson can sustain this success from start to start, much less over a long period of time. He’s already done it with this two-month hot streak, but this isn’t a dice I’m will to roll unless it was a desperation stream. There isn’t enough upside here to chance it on a pitcher with a 5.34 SIERA.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF