Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 26

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

Welcome to Are You For Real?, a weekly column where we look at pitchers who turned in surprisingly good starts and try to determine whether they are the real deal. Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more, as we go to battle one more time in search of fantasy titles. This week we're looking at three pitchers who've pitched well as of late and have good matchups heading into the final weekend of the season, making them the perfect streaming candidates to put your squad over the top, and also could have interesting sleeper appeal for 2022.

First, we'll take a second look at a pitcher I analyzed way back in April with Alex Cobb of the Angels, then we'll break down the MLB debut of Tampa's top prospect Shane Baz, and we'll round it out with a breakdown of a former Tampa prospect Joe Ryan, who's come up big for the Twins in the final month.

Roster percentages quoted in this piece are based on Yahoo availability and are accurate as of 9/27/2021.

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Alex Cobb, Los Angeles Angels

20% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 82.2 IP, 3.59 ERA, 2.61 FIP, 3.2 K/BB ratio

09/23 vs. HOU: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K

Using Cobb as a subject for this column breaks two rules I normally adhere to when selecting the pitchers to analyze. First, Cobb’s 2021 stats are awesome and a good start from him shouldn’t come as a surprise, and second, I already wrote about him way back in April as a veteran sleeper. However, Cobb has been on a roll and is criminally under-owned, so as we trudge towards titles, it’s worth revisiting the embattled righty. Championship contenders are probably eying him on the waiver wire this week, wondering if Cobb could be a key piece to take home the gold. Let’s have a peek under the hood at Cobb’s season and see if he’s worthy of helping chase the ring, and if there’s any 2022 upside in his profile.

Cobb’s career has truly been a roller coaster, as he was once considered one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball back in the late 2000s and early 2010s. He looked every bit as advertised in the beginning of his career, even posting a combined 2.82 ERA and 3.1 K/BB ratio in 309.2 innings between 2013-2014. Unfortunately, his All-Star trajectory came to a screeching halt in 2015, when Cobb was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery before the season began. He returned to five disastrous starts in 2016, and with diminished velocity and a reduction in splitter usage his numbers plummeted, especially his strikeout rate, which hovered around a pitiful 13-15%. Prior to 2021 Cobb had been toiling away in Baltimore, and while he was being paid handsomely, his production had him far, far off fantasy radars. The Angels made a minor trade for him in the offseason, and seem to have rehabilitated the righty into an effective starter. How’d they do what Baltimore couldn’t?

For those unfamiliar with Cobb’s game, the most important thing to know about him is that he lives and dies by the splitter. In his heyday, it was considered among the best splitters in the game, and while he’s probably surrendered that title to the likes of Kevin Gausman or Shohei Ohtani, Cobb’s splitter is still pretty darn effective. This season batters have hit just .230 off the pitch, along with a .295 SLG and a monster 20.7% swinging strike rate. Even last season when Cobb posted a less impressive 4.30 ERA and 6.54 K/9, his splitter was just as good, if not better based on surface stats. Opponents managed a .181 AVG, .287 SLG, and a 21.8% swinging strike rate against Cobb’s splitter last season. Not to shabby for a 33-year-old who’s undergone Tommy Surgery and hip surgery over the last six years. The splitter is a downright strikeout weapon when its on, and Cobb’s gains in strikeout rate (9.48 K/9 in 2021 vs. 6.3 K/9 between 2016-20) seem legitimate. If his splitter was just as good last season, certainly something else must’ve changed, right?

There are two big differences between the 2020 and 2021 versions of Alex Cobb, which is his reduction in home run rate and his improved fastball results. The two are linked together, but the most important change is his sinker performance. Last season batters teed off on Cobb’s sinker for a .353 AVG, .588 SLG, and a .434 wOBA against. With numbers that bad, it’s a miracle he even maintained a 4.30 ERA. Things have gotten much better in 2021, as the average against has dropped to .260, the slugging matches last year’s batting average at .353, and the wOBA is .305. Bad fastballs are often the downfall of aging pitchers, and a turnaround of this magnitude is almost unheard of, but Cobb has defied the odds and brought his sinker back from the grave to be an effective pitch.

The reason Cobb’s sinker has been so much better this season is because batters seem unable to square the pitch up. The average exit velocity off Cobb’s sinker went from a scorching 93.1 MPH average exit velocity last year to just 89.3 MPH this year. Whenever we see this stark of a shift from one season to another the first thing I want to look at his the pitch measurables. The spin rate hasn’t budged on his sinker this season and is still decidedly mediocre, so that’s probably not the answer. We don’t normally think about movement as much when it comes to fastballs compared to breaking balls, but Cobb has added half an inch of break and vertical movement to his sinker in 2021, which may attribute to hitters struggling to barrel up the pitch up this season, though it’s hard to nail it down definitely because the groundball rate and average launch angle against are roughly the same between 2020 and 2021. Perhaps location is the answer, so let’s compare Cobb sinker heatmaps from 2020 (top) and 2021 (bottom).

There’s not a drastic difference one year to another, but it looks like he’s trying to keep the ball up a bit more and is avoiding the bottom third of the zone. The high fastball could indeed be the answer for Cobb, though his shift isn’t nearly as pronounced as we’ve seen in other pitchers. The high fastball approach isn’t as appealing for a sinkerballer like Cobb, but in today’s game, batters feast on those lower-third fastballs. What’s strange about Cobb is that he’s getting oddly good results on sinkers right down the heart of the plate. Let’s have a look at the batting average heatmaps on his sinker.

The inside and outside sections down the middle are roughly the same, but batters are hitting .150 on fastballs right down the middle? That’s awfully strange. Let’s compare exit velocity heatmaps now.

A nine MPH drop in average exit velocity on fastballs right down the middle despite no major differences on the inside and outside sections? To Cobb’s credit, he has done a good job of inducing soft contact on the high fastballs, and perhaps the combination of the high fastball and his nasty splitter are keeping hitters off balance. That being said, I think Cobb may be the beneficiary of some good fortune on fastball results this year.

Speaking of good fortune, Cobb’s 0.31 HR/9 seems awfully hard to believe considering he posted a 1.7 HR/9 over his last three seasons combined. It’s great that he’s only allowed three home runs in 17 starts thus far, but his 5.4% HR/FB ratio seems wholly unsustainable over a long period of time. For reference, the league average HR/FB ratio is 13.6%, and Cobb has the second-lowest HR/FB ratio among all pitchers (min. 80 IP), behind just Trevor Rogers of Miami. There’s nothing wrong with getting lucky, and if anyone deserves it its Alex Cobb, who’s been dealt some rotten luck at earlier stages of his career. However, it would be hard to see him sustaining this into 2022.

Verdict:

Even if Cobb won’t be a sub 3.50 ERA pitcher with a 25% strikeout rate next season, it doesn’t mean he has no value. His splitter is a truly filthy offspeed pitch capable of racking up whiffs on any given day. The problem is that when it’s off Cobb doesn’t have much to fall back on, especially if his sinker performance regresses as I would expect. There aren’t many better matchups these days than at Texas, a club with a .275 wOBA and 74 wRC+ over the last 30 days, so Cobb is an excellent player to add for a one-start stream if you need him. For 2022, Cobb could make for a fine back-end rotation piece, especially if his draft cost is low as I would anticipate. Just don’t look at his sub-3 FIP and 0.31 HR/9 ratio and think you’ve got a secret ace next season. Cobb has pitched a bit over his head, and he’ll come back to earth next year, though he’ll likely be better than his days in Baltimore.

Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays

52% Rostered

2021 Stats (Triple-A): 46 IP, 1.76 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 5.82 K/BB ratio

09/20 vs. TOR: 5 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K

09/26 vs. MIA: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

Baz looks to be the last big pitching prospect to make the leap in 2021, and he’s gotten off to an outstanding start to his career, securing a win in each of his first two starts along with a monster 14:1 K:BB ratio. His arrival is a welcome sight for both the Rays and fantasy owners, both of whom are hoping Baz can serve as a key piece to a championship run. Despite the prospect pedigree, it’s always a nerve-racking proposition to throw such an inexperienced player into our lineups this late into the season. Is Baz worth the risk, or should fantasy players wait until 2022 to deploy the young righty?

Baz is currently the sixth-rated prospect in Tampa Bay’s organization by MLB Pipeline, which speaks volumes the depth and quality of the Rays’ farm system since most prospect lists rank Baz as a top-75 prospect in all of baseball and rising, with MLB.com’s list jumping him all the way up to 20^th on their top-100 rankings. Originally acquired from the Pirates in the ill-fated Chris Archer swap, Baz was touted as a top arm out of high school, and was the 12^th overall pick in the 2017 draft. He is best known for his top-end velocity, averaging 97 MPH with his fastball with the ability to touch triple digits. He also throws three off speed pitches, a slider, a curveball, and a changeup, with the slider and curveball being the two pitches he’s relied on for swings-and-misses.

What’s interesting about Baz is that he used two different approaches in regards to his breaking pitches in each of his starts. He leaned heavily on his fastball-slider combination in his start against Toronto, but used his curveball more frequently against Miami. Part of the reason for this difference may have been lineup composition, as the Blue Jays only started one left-handed hitter against Baz, while the Marlins started five lefties/switch-hitters. Pitchers typically prefer to use their slider against same-handed hitting, so Baz may have chosen to rely on his curveball against Miami’s barrage of lefties. The good news is that both pitches proved effective and looked pretty darn good in the process.

Baz’s slider has been regarded as his best breaking ball by scouts, and this thing had the Blue Jays in knots last Monday. A hard, sharp offering with high-80s velocity and pronounced horizontal movement, the slider-fastball pairing is Baz’s bread-and-butter and often cited as one of the main drivers behind Baz’s minor league breakout. It’s still a very small sample, but Baz’s slider has shown above average spin at the major league level, and has an impressive 29.4% swinging strike rate to this point, including ten whiffs against Toronto. Here’s an example of the slider from his start versus Toronto:

The location on this pitch was less-than-ideal, but the movement is strong and considering Baz threw four straight 97+ MPH fastballs before this slider, it was easy to see how it fooled George Springer. Baz was aided by the fact that it’s much harder for a batter to hit breaking balls without the traditional trash can bang Springer was used to in Houston, but it’s a strong offering nonetheless.

If the slider was Baz’s only good breaking ball, then it would be enough to buy into the prospect hype, but his curveball was equally as effective in his second start. He upped his curveball usage to 26% against Miami, and had a 60% whiff rate with the pitch in that game. Baz’s curveball is a high spin pitch that’s displayed above average drop and break through his first two starts. It’s a little sharper and harder than a traditional curveball and plays sort of like a slowed-down version of his slider, but Baz can use the pitch with confidence against both right- and left-handed hitters, which may help him maintain relatively even platoon splits. Here are a few examples from this start.

It certainly passes the eye-test, and while we shouldn’t put too much stock in a performance made against the late season Marlins (they are dead last in offense with a .277 wOBA as a team in September), Baz still impressed in this start despite the weak competition.

Nobody ever doubted Shane Baz’s stuff, but his biggest flaw as a prospect was always considered to be control. Baz was crippled by walks in his early minor-league career, never posting a walk rate below 10.8% at any level prior to 2021. The control concerns have completely vanished this season, as Baz had a microscopic 1.5 BB/9 between AA and AAA this season, and has only issued one walk between his first two starts in the majors. The reasoning behind Baz’s improvements seems to be a combination of maturing and developing a more consistent delivery. Baz was know to be a bit all-over-place with his delivery in his early days as a prospect, and that coupled with his high velocity was a recipe for control issues. It’s hard to buy into such a drastic skills leap in just 89.1 combined innings, but the fact that Baz carried those gains from Double-A to Triple-A is encouraging. There isn’t enough season left to see if Baz’s control can hold up over the long term in the majors, but if he can sustain a walk rate this low, he could really be a special arm.

Verdict:

It’s hard to watch Shane Baz, look at his numbers, and not get swept up by the possibilities. He’s got the stuff and he seems to have fixed his one fatal flaw, which was his poor control. Altogether, Baz looks like the complete package and future front-line starter depending on how the Rays choose to use him. It’s unfortunate that his final start will come this weekend in Yankee Stadium against a New York squad with a .355 team wOBA over the last 14 days, but Baz is still a strong option to use in championship weekend, especially if you need to make up ground in strikeouts. The offseason hype around Baz will likely cause his 2022 value to inflate to insane proportions, and I suspect he’ll be one of the sleeper darlings of the fantasy baseball world next year, especially if he performs well in the playoffs for Tampa Bay.

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

33% Rostered

2021 Stats (Triple-A): 66 IP, 3.41 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 7.67 K/BB ratio

09/22 @ CHC: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 11 K

Ryan has been a late season bright spot for the Twins, posting a 2.45 ERA and 8.33 K/BB ratio in his first four starts with the big league club. He put up arguably his best start so far with a dominating 11 strikeout performance in Chicago against the Cubs. Ryan was a hot commodity on the waiver wire after this outing due to his upcoming two-start week, but a brief stay on the bereavement list reshuffled the Twins’ rotation, meaning Ryan will only take the hill once during the last week, drawing the Tigers at home on Thursday. Even with the reduced volume, many players either added Ryan or are eyeing him up on waivers, wondering if he’s worth using in that final outing.

Ryan came over to Minnesota from the Rays earlier this season in the Nelson Cruz deal, and Ryan is a good return for the Twins considering they only gave up a two-month rental. He was ranked 11^th in Tampa Bay’s system coming into the year by MLB Pipeline, though when your system boasts the likes of Shane Baz, Shane McClanahan, and Luis Patino, you can afford to give up a pitcher of Ryan’s caliber. A seventh-round pick by Tampa back in 2017, Ryan made quick progress through the minor leagues, moving up two levels in 2019 and starting in Triple-A this season. Ryan was a bit  more polished as he pitched four years in college, but he’s still made excellent progress for a seventh-rounder. Ryan uses a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, changeup, and curveball, with his fastball being the centerpiece of his game thus far.

The impact of Ryan’s fastball cannot be understated, as he’s thrown the pitch 66.7% of the time in his first four starts. For context, no qualified starting pitcher has thrown their fastball more than 60.5% of the time. With that much fastball usage, one might assume Ryan is some kind of fireballer who is just blowing his stuff past hitters, but that’s not the case. He averages a pedestrian 91.2 MPH with his fastball and has maxed out at 94.8 MPH. He doesn’t have exceptional spin or movement with the pitch either, with his average RPM of 2178 putting him in the 35^th percentile for fastball spin. Despite all this, batters have managed just a .133 AVG and .244 SLG off Ryan’s fastball, and he has an 11.5% swinging strike rate with the pitch. There’s got to be something about this pitch that makes it special, right?

When asked why it works so well, Ryan himself told MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park “I don't know… I was always thinking about, like, throwing through the target. And maybe that helped me stay on it longer and help something along the way” (source).  I guess it goes to show not every player is in the weeds on their own analytics these days. One aspect that Park credits in that piece is Ryan’s unique delivery and ability to hide the ball, which can increase deception and make the pitch play up a few MPH. Ryan is in the 5^th percentile in average release height, meaning he is among the lowest arm slot pitchers in the major leagues. Here’s an example of Ryan’s fastball from this outing where we can really get an idea of his delivery.

He’s not a side-armer, but Ryan does have an unusually low arm angle, and it’s easy to see how that could help his fastball punch above its weight class and generate more swing-and-miss than we’d expect. That being said, this seems like the type of approach that could get figured out after Ryan has spent a little more time in the big leagues. Unusual mechanics can help you get by for a while, but most of the time this catches up with the pitcher. What’s interesting is that while Ryan’s made four starts, he’s only faced two opponents, the Cubs and Cleveland, and neither team performed much better against him the second time around. We could chalk that up to the poor quality of both lineups, which likely played a role in Ryan’s success, but it’s still reassuring that he was able to do it twice against the same hitters.

Outside of his fastball, Ryan’s most used pitch has been his slider, which he’s thrown 16.2% of the time. It’s a slower offering at just 80.9 MPH, but does have some loopy movement and an extra six inches of break compared to league average. Here’s an example of the slider from this start.

That pitch was so deceptive it fooled both Nico Hoerner and the catcher Ryan Jeffers. The slider has been a strong performer for Ryan overall as well, with opponents managing just a .176 AVG, .235 SLG, and 18.9% swinging strike rate with the pitch. It’s a strong pairing with his fastball, but Ryan has only thrown the pitch to right-handed hitters thus far, which makes sense because with his low arm slot it would be much easier for a left-hander to recognize a slider coming out of the hand. He will probably only ever be able to use this pitch against righties, though it could be an effective breaking ball versus same-handed hitters.

Therein lies one of the issues for a deception-based pitcher like Ryan, is that things can fall apart if the opponent stacks the lineup with lefties. It can also go haywire if the pitcher’s mechanics are off by a millimeter, or if the team or league figures you out. Ryan’s prospect status, minor league stats, and strong finish will make him a popular sleeper next season, but with so many interesting young arms to gamble on late in drafts, Ryan is probably not the dice I’d be looking to roll as a late round sleeper next season. That’s not to say he can’t break out next, but I worry his game isn’t fleshed out enough for the major league level.

Verdict:

Ryan’s unconventional delivery and strong fastball command allows his stuff to play up better than its velocity, and Ryan has certainly gotten the most out of his physical gifts during his professional career. He doesn’t offer too much outside of the fastball, though his slider has shown some promise as an effective breaking ball against same-handed hitters. His stuff doesn’t quite align with his impressive numbers, and he seems overly reliant on deception to get results, something that can produce good outcomes at first, but the pitcher can wind up crashing back to earth after the league gets a gameplan on him. He’s still a really good option against the lowly Tigers lineup on Thursday, but he’s likely going to get some offseason helium as a sleeper, and I’d rather gamble on a pitcher who’s game is centered around strong stuff than deception when it comes to late round youngsters in 2022.

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