Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 16

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

Welcome to Are You For Real?, a weekly column where we look at pitchers who turned in surprisingly good starts and try to determine whether they are the real deal. The All-Star break is behind us, and chances are you know whether your team is a contender at this point. Now comes the time to analyze and hopefully find the hidden gems that will help lead us to fantasy glory in the second half.

This week we're ranging the entire spectrum of pitchers, looking at an emerging youngster in Miami's Jordan Holloway, a mid-career mystery in Colorado's Jon Gray, and a veteran looking to hang on and contribute in Philadelphia's Matt Moore.

Roster percentages quoted in this piece are based on Yahoo availability and are accurate as of 7/19/2021.

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Jordan Holloway, Miami Marlins

0% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 25 IP, 3.60 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.7 K/BB ratio

07/16 @ PHI: 5 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

The Marlins had been gradually stretching out Holloway going into the All-Star break, and the young righty had his longest appearance yet on Friday, finishing five hitless innings against the Phillies. He didn’t start the game as the Marlins used Ross Detweiler as an opener, but Holloway has been acting as the long man for Miami over his last three appearances. The Marlins have a pretty big hole in their rotation, and with Sixto Sanchez out for the season and Elieser Hernandez’s status in question, there are no reinforcements coming to take that spot. That means Holloway could very well be a full-time starter for Miami. Perhaps Holloway is good enough for the back-end of the Marlins’ rotation, but is he good enough for the back-end of yours?

A 20th-round draft pick out of high school, Holloway was never much of a prospect. He barely made it on the end of Miami organization prospects and had no hope of sniffing an overall prospect list. It’s not as though Holloway was being snubbed since he didn’t show much as a minor leaguer. It took him four years to graduate to High-A ball (though he did have Tommy John surgery in 2017), where he put up a 4.45 ERA in 95 IP. Overall, he has a 4.63 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and 1.54 K/BB ratio over 322.1 minor league innings, most of which occurred at A ball or Rookie ball. It’s no secret why he didn’t get any prospect attention. He just didn’t deserve it.

The performance may not have been there for Holloway, but his raw stuff is nothing to sneeze at. He throws both a four-seam and two-seam fastball, which clock in between 95-96 MPH and can max out around 99 MPH. He pairs the fastball with two sharp breaking balls: an 85 MPH slider, and an 80 MPH diving knuckle curve. Holloway has the tools to be an effective starter, but up until 2021 he’d been unable to channel his raw stuff into results. Holloway profiles as the type of pitcher who is just one or two tweaks away from clicking, so let’s dive in and see if he’s made those tweaks.

Holloway’s biggest weaknesses have always been walks and mechanics. He’s struggled with efficiency and repeatability as a minor leaguer and often had walk rates much higher than 10% in the minor leagues, including a 15.6% walk rate at High-A in 2019. These issues are common among larger pitchers (Holloway is listed at 6’6”, 230 LBS) and unseasoned, high school arms. Holloway himself said that Tommy John surgery helped fix his mechanics, though he attributes the surgery and rehab more to improvements in fastball velocity than anything else. The walk problems have followed him to the majors, as Holloway has issued 5.10 BB/9 through 30 innings this year. That is technically an improvement over his minor league numbers, but far too high for an MLB pitcher. For context, not a single qualified starter has a BB/9 over five, and the highest BB/9 as of writing this belongs to Zach Davies, who also has the highest xFIP and SIERA among qualified starters. Interestingly, Holloway does not use his fastball most frequently when behind in the count, instead using his slider when the batter is ahead. This is either a deliberate choice to try and keep the hitter off balance, or it’s because he can’t control his fastball to use it when behind. My hunch is that it’s a combination of the two and more heavily influenced by his inability to locate the fastball. Here is a heatmap of his sinker usage this season:

The blotches are so all over the place here we could probably stick this heatmap in an art museum as a postmodern expressionist piece. Let’s look at his four-seam heatmap next.

It’s a bit more controlled than the sinker, as Holloway has a clear plan to attack high with his heater, but it’s still relatively spread out. It’s a small sample size, and because Holloway has only thrown 30 innings this season, a few pitches here or there could change the complexion of this heatmap. However, this is still less than encouraging. Attacking high with the fastball can be an effective method of generating whiffs, which has been true of Holloway’s four-seamer this season, as his fastball has an 8.8% swinging strike rate and .200 AVG against thus far. However, those whiffs can come at the cost of inefficiency and increase walk rates, which Holloway can ill afford. Perhaps this is the best approach for him given his current abilities. With this approach he can maximize his strikeout potential and reduce hits against at the expense of walks, but if he can grow to locate the fastball with more consistency, he could really take off.

Holloway may garner attention for his big fastball velocity, but his game is equally reliant on his two breaking balls, the slider and knuckle curve. Holloway has used his slider heavily thus far, throwing the pitch 42% of the time, more than any other pitch. He loves pitching off the slider, often using it as the first pitch of an at bat or when behind in the count. Opponents do not love trying to hit the slider, as they mustered a paltry .106 AVG and .166 wOBA against the pitch thus far. It’s a harder, sharper slider averaging between 84-85 MPH. Because it doesn’t have big exaggerated movement, Holloway has been able to use it effectively against both right- and left-handed batters. Holloway’s slider doesn’t generate big strikeout numbers like many of the elite sliders around the league, as he has a 13.7% swinging strike rate with the pitch this year. That’s not bad, but the best sliders can get a swinging strike rate around 20% or higher, and Holloway isn’t there. What he lacks in strikeouts he makes up for in weak contact. Batters have an 87.7 MPH average exit velocity against the pitch, and just a 5.9% line drive rate off Holloway’s slider as well. With this quality of contact, it’s easy to see how the pitch has just a .130 xBA.

Unfortunately for Holloway, batted ball numbers aren’t too sticky after just 30 innings, and it’s unlikely that these numbers hold over a long period of time. That’s not to say he’s pitched poorly and to expect a blow up at any given moment, but it would hard to envision Holloway sustaining a .143 BABIP against his slider all season. Since he lacks big strikeout numbers with the pitch, he doesn’t have as much to fall back on once more hits start dropping.

One solution for Holloway long term could be his knuckle curve, a pitch he has only thrown 10.8% of the time this season. However, it just may be his best offering. With an average velocity of 79.5 MPH, there is a 16 MPH gap between Holloway’s curveball and fastball, and the pitch has kept opposing hitters off balance accordingly. Batters are hitting just .188 against the curveball,  along with a .281 wOBA and 12.5% swinging strike rate, which is above average for a curveball. With sharp downward movement and above average spin (that was mysteriously down 115 RPM in this outing), the pitch is the perfect compliment to the rest of his high-octane arsenal. Here’s an example from this start.

That ball died about three-fourths of the way to the plate, along with Brad Miller’s soul as he took a wild, hopeless hack at the curveball.

Holloway could certainly improve his strikeout rate by increasing his curveball usage, which is something he has done over his last three appearances. What’s holding him back from using this weapon more often is that he needs to do a better job of setting it up. Holloway simply does not throw this pitch if behind in the count, and scarcely even then. It makes sense, as hitters could easily lay off, but he’ll need to find a way to be ahead in the count more often to unleash this weapon.

Strangely, Holloway is twice as likely to use the curve against a left-handed batter than a right-handed batter. It’s not uncommon for a pitcher to forgo using a slider against opposite-handed hitters, but it is odd for him to dial back curveball usage against same-handed hitters. He clearly treats his slider as his primary breaking ball, though long-term he might benefit from more even slider and curveball usage against all opponents. Before that can happen, he will need to reign in his control enough to trust the curveball more often, and that may not happen midseason.

Verdict:

Holloway’s raw stuff looks pretty darn good, and it’s easy to watch him and see the talent in his arm. His poor control is going to be his kryptonite, and if he can’t figure out how to cut down on the walks, he might not last as a starter. Now is the perfect time for the Marlins to try Holloway in their rotation, but if he can’t hack in the rotation, he might make a strong high-leverage reliever one day. He has strong velocity and two good breaking balls, which means he could thrive late in games. Still, if he can reduce the walks, locate his fastball better, and increase his curveball usage, he’ll make for a solid starter. Those are no small changes, and he might be more of a 2022 sleeper than a 2021 breakout. I wouldn’t be afraid to stream Holloway against weak lineups, but he’s not a priority add either. Technically, Holloway's rotation spot isn't secure, but they were already shorthanded before Pablo Lopez hit the IL this past weekend, so it's hard to believe they'd turn away a performing arm like Holloway given their injury struggles on the mound.

Matt Moore, Philadelphia Phillies

1% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 31.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 6.23 FIP, 1.4 K/BB ratio

07/16 vs. MIA: 4.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 9 K

Moore hasn’t been fantasy relevant since the Obama administration, but the embattled lefty put up a shocking strikeout total against the Marlins on Friday. Moore’s nine strikeouts were more than his previous three starts combined, and it was his highest strikeout total since August 2017. Things were so bad for Moore that he could not secure a major league job and spent 2020 pitching in Japan. His 2.65 ERA and 3.77 K/BB ratio in Japan earned him another chance in the bigs, as Philadelphia decided to roll the dice on Moore, hoping to solidify the back end of their rotation on the cheap. Unfortunately, Moore’s success overseas hasn’t translated back to the majors, and he’s been in-and-out of Philadelphia’s rotation all season. The Phillies really need someone to step up and take that fifth starter’s job, and if Moore can put up these kinds of strikeout numbers, he may be their answer.

Although he is a relatively obscure major leaguer now, Moore has had a pretty long and varied major league career. Moore was once the most prized pitching prospect in all of baseball, and made his debut back in 2011 at the age of 22. His career got off to a pretty good start, as Moore had a 3.55 ERA, 8.9 K/BB ratio, and 0.9 HR/9 between 2011-2014, but his effectiveness evaporated following Tommy John surgery in April of 2014. Since returning from Tommy John surgery, Moore has a 5.13 ERA, 7.7 K/9, and a 1.3 HR/9. Those numbers would be even worse if not for an outlier 2016 season that saw Moore put up an uncharacteristically low 4.08 ERA. However, with one strong start under his belt already, the second half could be the long-awaited turnaround for Matt Moore.

Moore uses a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, cutter, curveball, and changeup. His fastball averages 92 MPH, which isn’t much lower than his peak velocity and rather impressive considering his age and injury history. Moore’s curveball was the stuff of legend in his prospect days, but as he has evolved his changeup, which has proven to be his best pitch. It seems as though Moore is beginning to realize this too, as his 17.7% changeup usage is his highest rate since 2014, and his changeup usage has eclipsed his curveball usage since 2014 as well.

The strength of Moore’s changeup lies in its sharp, diving action and above average break. This movement allows the pitch to act as more of a true breaking ball than a show-me changeup, and Moore has used it as such this season. Moore’s changeup is his most used pitch when ahead in the count and with two strikes against both righties and lefties. As a result, the pitch has been his one standout in the strikeout department with a 16.8% swinging strike rate and a 34.5% chase rate. Batters have managed a .273 AVG against it when they have made contact, but with a .205 xBA and 9.1% line drive rate against thus far, it looks as if Moore has been a little unlucky on batted balls. Philadelphia’s defense has been deservedly maligned this season, so more balls might sneak through thanks to the combined -23 DRS between Alec Bohm, Didi Gregorius, and Rhys Hoskins, but not to the degree Moore has suffered to this point.

The changeup looks like a bona-fide strikeout pitch, and it would serve Moore well to use it more frequently. Unfortunately, outside of the changeup, Moore doesn’t have much to offer. His fastball may have decent velocity for his age and injury history, but we’re not grading on a curve here, and the fastball has been roundly crushed over the past few seasons. Between 2017-2021 batters have hit .298 with a .541 SLG against Moore’s heater, and things are only slightly better this year, as Moore has allowed a .282 AVG and .473 SLG with his fastball. Moore suffered more than most pitchers as a result of the launch angle revolution, and has had a horrible case of Gopheritis since the 2017 season. He’s been unlucky on balls-in-play, but he’s been fortunate to not have allowed more home runs this season. He’s given up seven homers this season, but has a 44.1% flyball rate and has 10 expected home runs in Citizen’s Bank Park. Obviously, he doesn’t pitch all of his games in Philly, but this may help explain his 7.43 ERA at home this season. He didn’t allow a home run in this start, but did allow three doubles, which isn’t encouraging for someone who’s struggled to limit power.

Moore used to be known far-and-wide for his curveball, but that pitch simply isn’t what it used to be either. The most damning metric is his average spin rate of 2186 RPM, which is 400 RPM off his peak since the introduction of Statcast. This drop is more likely to be the result of physical decline rather than MLB’s crackdown on foreign substances, as Moore averaged just 2250 RPM on his curveball in his first start of the season, still far from his peak. Batters have crushed the pitch for a .304 AVG and .488 SLG as well, along with a laughably low 2% swinging strike rate. He’s only thrown 98 curveballs this season, so that means he has two swinging strikes with the pitch. One of those came in this start against Jazz Chisholm, who swings at everything, meaning he’s got just one other whiff with the pitch all season.

Of course, the solution might be for Moore to ease off the curveball and use other pitches, but he just doesn’t have much else. He can’t throw the changeup every single time, and he needs an effective third pitch to help set up the results he wants. He’s practically stopped throwing his cutter, which based on its results was probably a good move. The bad news is that he still has to throw something, and for now it has to be this severely diminished curveball.

Verdict:

Moore’s changeup is a legitimate weapon, and was the catalyst behind this nine strikeout performance. Sadly, the changeup is his only good pitch, and there isn’t enough good here to outweigh the bad. He probably belongs in the bullpen at this stage of his career, but the Phillies are desperate for a fifth-starter so they’ll continue to roll Moore out there. I wouldn’t trust him in my fantasy lineup unless the situation was dire, I just needed volume for the week, or it is a very deep league.

Jon Gray, Colorado Rockies

38% Rostered

2021 Stats (prior to this start): 86 IP, 3.77 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 2.3 K/BB ratio

07/18 vs. LAD: 7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

Gray has been rolling as of late, posting a 2.40 ERA, 2.67 FIP, and 11.1 K/9 over his last five starts since returning from the injured list. His start on Sunday may have been the most impressive of all, as Gray held the high-powered Dodgers lineup in check in Coors Field. Gray has long been a puzzling hurler for fantasy players, occasionally flashing greatness intermixed with periods of mediocrity and sometimes downright futility. Alas, Gray is looking strong right now and is doing it at the right time, as the rebuilding Rockies could ship the 29-year-old onto a contender at the trade deadline. Getting out of Colorado would certainly boost Gray’s value, but we can get ahead of the curve by analyzing Gray’s recent hot streak to see if there are sustainable changes that he could carry over to a new club, or if this is yet another tease from a pitcher who perpetually teases fantasy owners with big performances only to watch his fantasy value fade over the long haul.

At 6’4” and 225 pounds, Gray has the look of a classic power workhorse pitcher. As the third overall pick back in 2013, Gray also has the pedigree of an ace. That’s why many were hoping Gray would be the one to overcome the thin air of Colorado and emerge as a Rockies ace. Things haven’t quite worked out that way, but Gray does have some solid seasons to his name, including a 3.67 ERA in 2017 and a 3.84 ERA in 2019. Unfortunately, his ERA has been higher than 4.60 in his other big league seasons, including an ugly 6.69 mark in eight starts last season. In addition to the look and the pedigree, Gray has the classic starter’s arsenal, pitching primarily off a four-seam fastball and slider while rounding things out with a changeup and curveball. His slider is his most commonly used breaking ball, and he’s using it more than ever in 2021 at a 36.6% rate. In the mid-2010s Gray scarcely used his changeup, but over the last two seasons, that usage rate has jumped over 10% and his changeup has overtaken his curveball as his third pitch. At his peak, Gray has averaged 96 MPH with his fastball in the past, but this season he’s been averaging 94.7 MPH on the gun.

The simplest correlation between Gray’s success and pitch arsenal is that fastball velocity, as his two best seasons (2017 and 2019) are also the two seasons that Gray averaged 96 MPH with his fastball. If the fastball velocity is the key to Gray’s success, that bodes well for the legitimacy of his recent performances. Gray’s fastball velocity has jumped nearly a full MPH since coming off the IL, and he’s averaging 95.4 MPH over his last five starts. He’s been a little all over the place from a velocity standpoint over his last few starts, as he averaged 94.6 MPH on 7/6 in Arizona, but averaged 96.8 MPH on 7/11 in San Diego. Both of those starts were outside of Coors so we can’t blame it on the thin air, plus high altitude tends to have a bigger effect on the break of pitches than the velocity.

While higher velocity correlates with overall performance for Gray, it does not correlate with fastball performance. In the two seasons where Gray averaged 96 MPH with his fastball, he also allowed batting averages above .325 and slugging percentages above .540 in both of those season. Over his last five starts, batters have hit just .269 against Gray’s fastball, but still have a .500 SLG off the pitch. The BABIP against his fastball during the hot streak is about .308 which 40 points below his career average, but his power numbers against are about the same in part because his flyball rate has ticked up a bit. If his BABIP returns to the .340-.350 range on the fastball as it has done in years past, then Gray could be in for a rough time.

The sample size is small enough that we don’t want to overanalyze the minutia of batted ball data on one pitch over 30 innings, but it’s still something to keep in mind going forward. If Gray were to be traded, the barometer for his fastball BABIP (among other things) would be shifted down, and a .308 BABIP on his fastball would be sustainable. We’d never want to bank on a player getting traded, but trading Gray would be the logical thing for Colorado to do, especially if they could package him with Trevor Story for a big return. The notoriously hapless Rockies have rarely done the logical thing in past seasons, so there’s an equally good chance Gray is still in a Rockies uniform come August 1.

Maybe Gray has overperformed a bit on his fastball, but that’s only one part of the equation here. The real catalyst behind his performance has been his slider, which is carving up opposing lineups right now. Since returning from the IL, batters are hitting .116 with a .023 ISO against his slider and his swinging strike rate has doubled over his hot streak. The velocity is up about an MPH on Gray’s slider, but his movement has improved as well. Here’s a game-by-game chart of the vertical movement on his slider in 2021.

That extra 1-1.5 inches of drop coupled with increased velocity is the difference between Gray’s slider being decent to being plain filth. Let’s compare a slider pre-injured list to post-injured list for an idea of the changes.

Here's 5/29 @ PIT:

And here's 7/18 vs. LAD:

Both of those pitches are to lefties, but Gray is able to go hard and inside challenging the hitter rather than sheepishly trying to sneak one on the outside corner. When Gray’s been at his best in the past, his slider had been at its best too, and it looks pretty darn good right now. While increased fastball velocity may not have a direct impact on outcomes against the fastball, it does help set up Gray’s breaking pitches to get those strikeouts us fantasy players crave.

Verdict:

There is a lot to like about what Gray has been doing over his last five starts, but most of us have been bitten by Gray in the past which is why I’m cautiously optimistic rather than ecstatic and ready to push in all my chips. That being said, interest in Gray will skyrocket if he’s traded, so if you can spare a roster spot, it might be smart to add Gray now. I’d be remiss not to point out that Gray actually has a 3.14 ERA at home compared to a 4.54 ERA on the road, but I think we all know that Gray is better off outside of Colorado. As things line up now, he would have a two start week at the Angels and at the Padres next week, so he’s usable either way in the near future.

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