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Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 7, or simply mirages.
Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
We've got a treat this week, as we saw exceptional performances from two young interesting arms. First, we'll take a look at the recent success of MacKenzie Gore in Washington. Then, we'll dive deep on Bryce Miller's hot start in the Emerald City.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 05/08/2023.
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MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals – 52% Rostered
2023 Stats (prior to this start): 31 IP, 3.77 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 15.9% K-BB%
5/6 @ ARI: 6 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K
It was a good outing for Gore on Saturday, as the young lefty racked up nine strikeouts over six innings in a no-decision. Strikeouts have been plentiful for Gore, who has had a 25% strikeout rate or higher in all but one start this season. It wasn’t that long ago that Gore was among the highest touted pitching prospects in baseball. Some hiccups at AAA and a tumultuous debut campaign have caused his star to fade, but does superstar potential lie below the surface?
The third overall pick in the 2017 MLB draft, many scouts saw ace potential in him. In a short time, Gore was widely considered a top-10 prospect by analysts across the league. Things began to sour for him as he progressed through the minors. He had a 5.85 ERA in his AAA debut in 2021, and in 2022 he was left completely off Baseball America’s top-100 list.
As good as Gore can be, one issue has plagued him throughout his professional career that he has yet to overcome; poor control. Control aside, Gore was a high school phenom thanks to his 95 MPH heater and two dominant breaking balls: the slider and the curve. Those pitches haven’t gone anywhere, and Gore has been using them effectively this season.
Many pitchers would kill for one breaking ball as good as Gore’s slider or curveball; it’s not often a pitcher comes along with two secondary pitches this strong in addition to plus velocity. Gore’s curveball has performed exceptionally so far this season, with opposing batters hitting just .154 off the pitch with a .333 SLG and .251 wOBA. Amazingly, Statcast projections suggest that the pitch has underperformed slightly, with a .152 xBA, .278 xSLG, and .322 xwOBA against. The pitch has been a strikeout machine as well, with Gore producing a 19.9% SwStr rate and a gaudy 47.7% chase rate thus far this season.
What makes the pitch so good? Gore’s curveball is below average in spin, but makes up for it with exceptional horizontal movement, making the pitch especially effective against right-handed batters. Here is a beauty from earlier this season.
If only he could have that type of command all the time. The curveball might be Gore’s best strikeout pitch, but the entire repertoire is strong. Opponents are hitting .227 with a -3-degree average launch angle against Gore’s slider this season along with a 17.5% SwStr rate. Gore also has a respectable 9.5% SwStr rate with this four-seamer, and while the .297 AVG against is a little high, his .257 xBA and .404 BABIP against his fastball suggest that Gore has been unlucky in terms of fastball outcomes. For Gore, it’s going to come down to one thing, and that’s command.
Mackenize Gore has walked 12% of the batters he’s faced in 2023. He also walked 12% of the batters he faced in 2022. He also walked 12.5% of the batters he faced at AAA in 2021. So, 0.5% progress? Not exactly, though Gore has had some promising trends over his last few games. Gore had a 16.3% walk rate in his first four starts, but just a 6.9% walk rate over his last three. Over his last three starts, Gore has increased his curveball usage from 16% to 23% and lowered his slider usage from 21% to 15%. But Gore isn’t just using his curveball more, he’s using it differently.
Here's a look at Gore’s pitch selection in his first four starts of the season. Note the curveball usage when the batter is ahead or the count is even.
And here is his usage over his last three starts
Gore has begun using the pitch to get himself back in counts and avoid trouble. And why not? Sure, conventional pitching wisdom says to stabilize the count with fastballs, but batters can’t make contact with the curveball, can’t square up the curveball, and nearly half the time it’s out of the zone and they swing anyway.
Is this the Mackenize Gore ascension we were promised way back in 2020? Probably not yet. Gore may’ve kept the walks in check, but he still allowed nine baserunners in this game and allowed 15 hits in his last 10 innings. It could be bad luck, but it also could be that he’s trading walks for hits, which is a dangerous game to play in the major leagues. The stuff looks as advertised, and Gore deserves a roster spot in most leagues, but superstardom is at least a year away, if not longer.
Verdict:
Wielding a 95 MPH heater and two plus breaking balls, there’s a lot to like about Gore’s potential. However, the lack of polish is apparent, and he will probably be inconsistent for the remainder of this season. He is reminiscent of Robbie Ray, a supremely talented left-hander with big strikeout numbers and wild control.
Gore may eventually take the next step and become a front-line starter, but that likely won’t happen this year. Still, not many pitchers on waivers can consistently put up a >25% strikeout rate, so Gore belongs on a fantasy roster in all but the shallowest of leagues.
Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners – 62% Rostered
2023 Stats (AA): 19.2 IP, 6.41 ERA, 5.85 FIP, 17.6% K-BB%
5/2 @ OAK: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K
5/7 vs. HOU: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
Miller has set the baseball world aflame after coming up and dominating in his first two big league starts. The young right-hander has been exactly what the Mariners need after losing Robbie Ray for the season. The Mariners aren’t the only team with injuries; our fantasy ILs are filling up too. Can Miller be a suitable injury fill-in, or perhaps even more?
Originally a fourth-round pick in 2021, Miller had some prospect pedigree coming into the season. He was the Mariners' top pitching prospect (and second overall prospect) per MLB Pipeline, and he cracked the back end of a few top-100 prospect lists. Miller works primarily with three pitches, a four-seam fastball, a slider, and a curveball. Like a few other Seattle arms, Miller loves his fastball, and it’s been the key to his success so far.
Coming in at 95.6 MPH, Miller boasts some serious heat with his fastball, but it’s not just the velocity that makes this pitch special. Miller’s fastball has had an average RPM of 2,604, putting him in the 97th percentile for fastball spin among MLB pitchers. He also has above-average vert and break with his fastball, allowing the pitch to be much more deceptive than the typical fastball.
Batters haven’t just struggled against this pitch, they’ve barely made contact. Opponents are just 1-for-30 off the fastball so far, and Miller has a monster 12.8% SwStr and 38.8% chase rate with the pitch. Those numbers will certainly worsen over time, but they are impressive nonetheless, and it's exciting to see given the measurables of his fastball. Here are a few examples from his starts so far.
That high heat is brutal for opposing batters, and it’s no surprise to see Miller generate swings and misses with this approach. The problem is – at least through his first two starts – is that Miller doesn’t seem to offer much beyond his fastball.
Miller has thrown his fastball 70.9% of the time this season, and 71.4% of the time during his most recent start. For perspective, Alek Manoah was the heaviest fastball user among qualified pitchers last season, and he only threw it 62% of the time. Since 2017 there have been only three instances of a qualified pitcher with a fastball usage rate above 70%. Lance Lynn did it twice, and J.A. Happ once, and that’s it.
Miller’s breaking balls haven’t performed or measured nearly as well as his fastball thus far. Batters are hitting .400 off his curveball, and he hasn’t notched a single, solitary whiff with the pitch thus far. His slider hasn’t been much better, with opponents hitting .333 off the pitch with a pitiful 6.3% SwStr rate.
It's tempting to compare Miller to George Kirby or Luis Castillo, two other Seattle arms that have found great success with a fastball-heavy approach, but the comparisons would be a little premature. Kirby has a great fastball but also has some of the best command you’ll see among big-league starters. Castillo has upped his fastball usage quite significantly since coming to Seattle, but Castillo also possesses one of the best changeups in the major leagues. Miller doesn’t have another exceptional component to pair with his fastball, the fastball is his exceptional component.
This doesn’t mean Miller is bad or can’t be useful in fantasy, but we should be skeptical of his continued success on a level approaching a frontline starter. He’s more of a back-end rotation piece than an every-week starter. To this writer, Miller is a great sell-high candidate. He’s young, he’s hyped, and his 0.75 ERA is very pretty. I would look to trade him for a pitcher whose underlying numbers look good, but many fans have lost faith in, such as Jose Berrios.
Verdict:
With remarkable movement plus velocity and elite spin, Miller’s fastball looks like something special. It’s a versatile offering that should allow him to maintain a baseline level of effectiveness to keep his job as a starter. However, Miller’s secondary pitches leave much to be desired, and it’s unlikely that he’ll maintain his current level of success once hitters know his tendencies.
He’ll be a fun pitcher to watch this season thanks to his awesome fastball and unique style, but a true breakout won’t come until he develops a better breaking ball. He’s worth the add in most leagues, but let someone else blow their FAB on him. If you currently have Miller on a team he’s a great sell-high candidate while his value is this high.
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