RADIO
Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 22, or simply mirages.
Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 22 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season. We've got two up-and-coming AL arms to look at this week. First, we'll deep dive into Osvaldo Bido's recent hot stretch in Oakland. Then, we'll break down Bowden Francis' awesome two-start week for Toronto.
For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of August 18.
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Osvaldo Bido, Oakland Athletics – 18% Rostered
2024 Stats (prior to this start): 39 IP, 3.92 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 12% K-BB%
8/17 vs. SF: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Bido was fantastic on Saturday, holding the Giants to just one measly hit over six innings en route to his fourth victory of the season. Bido has carved out a nice role for himself in Oakland, entering the rotation in July and pitching quite well since becoming a starter. Bido does have a 4.30 ERA as a starter this season compared to a 1.72 ERA as a reliever, but his starter ERA is bloated thanks to one bad start.
If we subtract the seven-run shellacking Bido suffered at the hands of the Angels, he actually has a 2.50 ERA in five starts. He’d have a 2.19 ERA on the year if that start hadn’t happened as well. Alas, the Angels start counts, but Bido has been excellent outside of that game. Can he be a contributor down the stretch, or should we leave him on waivers?
Originally an international signing by the Pirates out of the Dominican Republic, Bido wasn’t much of a prospect coming up. He signed at age 21, which is kind of old for an international signee in Bido’s position; usually, the players sign in their teens. Bido was an afterthought in Pittsburgh, and they non-tendered him this past offseason after Bido posted an ugly 5.86 ERA in 50.2 innings.
Oakland scooped him up and he struggled to the tune of a 4.50 ERA at Triple-A but had a 27% strikeout rate in the minors. Bido works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, a slider, a cutter, a changeup, and a sinker. He’s relied heavily on three pitches as a starter, however, which are his four-seamer, slider, and changeup.
Let’s start with Bido’s fastball, which comes in at an above-average 94.8 mph. Bido’s fastball velocity hasn’t dipped with his move into the rotation, and he’s still consistently firing 95+ on the mound. His velocity was up half a tick in this one at 95.3 mph, and Bido has managed to average above 95 mph with his fastball in three of his last four starts.
Batters have struggled against this pitch, hitting a meager .214 with a .286 SLG and .317 wOBA. You thought those numbers were impressive, eh? Well, the expected stats suggest that Bido’s fastball should’ve performed even better. He has a .178 xBA, .267 xSLG, and .298 xwOBA. How does Bido do it? Soft contact.
He has been a soft-contact king on the mound this season. Batters have an average exit velocity of 87.5 mph off Bido’s fastball this season along with a 25-degree average launch angle. Batters just can’t square it up, and Bido has a 51.3% flyball rate with his four-seamer, along with a comically high 40% infield flyball rate. That’s nuts, and it looks like soft contact and weak flyballs may just be Bido’s secret sauce in terms of run prevention.
Bido has been working magic with the rest of his pitches as well, and he has an exit velocity under 88 mph against every single pitch. He also has a launch angle of at least 25 degrees against three of his five pitches. Batters are hitting under .215 against all of his pitches except the sinker, which Bido has deemphasized upon joining the rotation.
One pitch that really stands out is his cutter because opponents are hitting just .048 against the pitch this season with a .095 SLG. He’s seriously allowed just one hit—a double—against his cutter this season.
Bido isn’t just good at inducing weak contact, he’s quite literally the best. He is in the 98th percentile in barrel rate against and the 100th percentile in hard-hit rate against. Now, he’s only pitched 45 innings this season, but these numbers are impressive nonetheless. He has a microscopic 26.3% hard-hit rate against, and it’s a great thing to induce weak contact for a pitcher who has heavy flyball tendencies like Bido.
Bido has a 31% groundball rate on the year, which would be the second-lowest groundball rate among qualified starters if Bido had enough innings to qualify. He’s always had low groundball rates, but with Statcast we’re able to see just how poor the quality of contact is against him, and it looks like a strong skill for Bido.
Bido may be a whiz at inducing weak contact, but there’s not much to like in this profile outside of that skill. Bido has been coasting on a .259 BABIP and 0.4 HR/9, both of which cannot last. Bido has allowed just two homers all season, which is crazy considering he’s allowed 10 at Triple-A this year in a similar number of innings (45 MLB vs. 48 Triple-A).
Home runs shouldn’t be a glaring issue for Bido, especially given his propensity for weak contact and spacious home ballpark, but his current home run rate is unsustainably low. The same is true of his BABIP. Bido somehow has a .063 BABIP against his cutter this season despite just a 9.8% swinging strike rate and 13.6% usage rate. Bido had a 5.86 ERA last season, a 4.50 ERA in the minors this season, and a 4.85 xFIP in the majors this season. He’s doing some nice things, but regression will come.
Verdict:
Bido has been excellent at inducing weak contact. He’s 98th percentile in xBA, average exit velocity, and barrel rate for pitchers, and 100th percentile in hard-hit rate. He has a solid mix of five pitches which he’s been able to use to routinely get weak flyball outs. Unfortunately, there’s not much to like in this profile outside of his weak contact skills.
Bido does have plus velocity, but with a 9.0 K/9 and the Oakland Athletics backing him, there’s just not a lot of room for upside here. Maybe he’ll walk that tightrope for you again, but it’s hard to trust him beyond a single start. His next start is home against Tampa Bay; he’s usable there, but I’d scour waivers for someone better in a 10- or 12-team league.
Bowden Francis, Toronto Blue Jays – 25% Rostered
2024 Stats (prior to these starts): 49.2 IP, 5.44 ERA, 5.40 FIP, 12.5% K-BB%
8/12 @ LAA: 7 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K
8/18 @ CHC: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K
Francis took his starting opportunity and ran with it this week, putting up two dominant starts on the road for Toronto and potentially locking up his rotation spot for the rest of the season.
Francis was something of a late-round sleeper coming into the season, but poor performance and a bullpen role quickly threw cold water on any potential breakout. Perhaps it was just delayed, as Francis has pitched to a 1.42 ERA over his last three starts. Not much has gone right for the Blue Jays this season, but could they have a gem for us fantasy players down the stretch?
Originally a seventh-round pick by Milwaukee back in 2017, Francis was traded to the Blue Jays in exchange for Rowdy Tellez back in 2021. That trade tells you a bit about Francis’ prospect pedigree or lack thereof. He was seen primarily as a swingman with rotation potential for Toronto, and he finally got that opportunity this season.
Francis works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seamer, curveball, splitter, slider, and sinker. Like Osvaldo Bido, Francis relies more heavily on three of his pitches as a starter, which include the four-seam fastball, slider, and splitter.
Batters have really struggled against Francis’ fastball this season, mustering just a .198 AVG, .405 SLG, and .294 wOBA off the pitch. The expected stats suggest that Francis has overperformed to a degree with his fastball; he has a .240 xBA, .486 xSLG, and .339 xwOBA against his four-seamer this season.
A 93.4 mph offering, Francis’ fastball stands out in neither velocity nor movement, and there’s plenty of reason to believe that Francis’ fastball is due for regression. He has a .198 BABIP against his fastball along with a 91.4 mph average exit velocity against. Batters hit it plenty hard, so I’d expect the BABIP and related numbers on Francis’ fastball to rise.
The fastball isn’t the only pitch to have exceptional results against this season. Francis’ splitter has also stymied opposing hitters. He has a .204 AVG, .204 SLG, and .180 wOBA against his splitter this season. You read that right, the AVG and SLG are the same, and the wOBA is the lowest number! That’s not something you see often, but Francis has earned it with this pitch.
An 84.1 mph offering, Francis’ splitter is a split-change averaging just 1,075 RPM. That makes the pitch exceptionally deceptive to opposing hitters. Here’s a nasty example from his start against the Angels.
And just for fun, here he is using the pitch to strike out the side on Sunday.
Bowden Francis, K'ing the Side in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/sQyJsuIXUH
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 18, 2024
The pitch certainly passes the eye test, and it passes the numbers test too. Francis has begun using the pitch more as a starter. He rejoined the rotation on July 29, and since then he has had a 24% splitter usage rate, compared to a 12.1% usage rate prior to rejoining the rotation.
It’s his best pitch, and he doubled how often he’s throwing it, leaning on the pitch as a strikeout weapon against hitters from both sides of the plate. Francis has plenty of strikeout upside with this offering. And then there’s his slider. Interestingly, Francis has also nearly doubled his slider usage rate since rejoining the rotation. He’s throwing it 11.5% of the time now, compared to 6.4% usage prior.
He’s eschewed his curveball in favor of the slider, reducing his curveball usage from 25.7% before July 29, to just 9.5% from July 29 onward. Francis only threw two curveballs against the Cubs, instead choosing his slider 15% of the time. He earned two whiffs on four swings with the pitch, and it looks like it could be a solid third pitch for him. Batters are hitting .353 against the pitch this season with an insane .824 SLG and .502 wOBA, but Francis has a .266 xBA, .508 xSLG, and .346 xwOBA against the pitch as well.
Francis does have an impressive 17.7% swinging strike rate with the slider this season compared to an 8.2% swinging strike rate with his curveball, so perhaps he’s trying to add additional swing-and-miss to his game by featuring this pitch more frequently. The slider seems like the better pitch between the pair, so I am here for Francis to try this new approach.
Verdict:
Francis has one really impressive pitch in the splitter. It looks like a dominant strikeout weapon, and if nothing else Francis should have himself a bullpen role in the major leagues. His fastball leaves something to be desired, but we’ve seen plenty of bad fastball starters thrive thanks to other skills such as control, groundball skills, or dominant secondary stuff.
Francis does have plus control, but he’ll make his bacon on that splitter. His slider looks like a good third option, and it’s really his fastball that gives me concern. He’s a risk, but at this point in the season, Francis is worth the add in standard leagues. He has flashed some big strikeout upside and could be a difference-maker down the stretch.
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