RADIO
Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 21, or simply mirages.
Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 21 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season. We've got an East Coast bias this week with two NL East arms to break down. First, we'll look at the Mets' David Peterson, who's been dominant as of late. Then, we'll deep dive into Edward Cabrera's strong start against San Diego.
For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of August 11.
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David Peterson, New York Mets – 18% Rostered
2024 Stats (prior to this start): 59.2 IP, 3.47 ERA, 4.57 FIP, 7.7% K-BB%
8/7 @ COL: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
Peterson went into Coors Field on Thursday and came out unscathed, holding the Rockies to just one run over five innings while picking up his sixth victory of the season. Peterson is only 20% rostered, but these solid starts aren’t totally a surprise for Peterson this season. He’s allowed more than two earned runs just twice all season and has a cool 3.47 ERA on the year. Still, he’s got an ugly 4.68 SIERA and is available in plenty of leagues, so fantasy managers clearly don’t have any confidence in Peterson. Are we right to disregard his strong performance, or is Peterson an underrated gem sitting on the wire?
Originally a first-round pick by the Mets back in 2017, Peterson had some prospect pedigree as he advanced through the minors. Peterson was seen as a future starter for the Mets, and while he’s made 76 starts since 2020, it’s been a tale of inconsistency for Peterson. He’s in his fifth season and has twice posted an ERA under 4.00 and twice posted an ERA over 5.00. He’s currently trending on the under-4.00 side, but advanced metrics and projections don’t seem to think Peterson can maintain his current performance. Peterson works with a five-pitch mix, consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, slider, changeup, and curveball.
It was an odd pitch mix for Peterson on Thursday, as the lefty had his highest four-seam fastball usage and highest changeup usage of the season against the Rockies. Peterson used his four-seamer 44.3% of the time against Colorado, compared to 26% usage on the season. The Rockies may have struggled with this pitch on Thursday, but most opponents have had no trouble handling Peterson’s heater. Batters are hitting .279 against Peterson’s four-seamer, along with a .344 SLG and .325 wOBA. Those numbers don’t look so bad, especially the power numbers, but the expected stats tell a different story. Opponents have a .333 xBA, .495 xSLG, and .400 xwOBA off Peterson’s four-seamer this season.
Batters aren’t clobbering the ball at just an 87.2 mph average exit velocity, however, opponents have a 16-degree average launch angle against Peterson’s heater. You know what that means? Line drives, and lots of them. Peterson has an ugly 33.3% line drive rate against his fastball this season, while the league average is 19.7%. Funnily enough, he has an even 33.3% breakdown between all three batted ball types, line drives, groundballs, and flyballs. Amusing as the parity is, it’s not an encouraging sign for Peterson. Line drives are the most likely batted ball type to become a hit, and his fastball looks like a liability in this regard. It’s easy to see why Peterson has such ugly expected stats on this pitch.
It's interesting that Peterson relied so heavily on his four-seamer in this one because that hasn’t been his approach this season. For the first time in his career, Peterson is throwing his sinker more than his four-seamer. He’s thrown his sinker 29.6% of the time this season—a career-high—compared to a 26% usage rate for his four-seamer. The sinker has been incredibly effective at inducing groundballs, with Peterson posting a monster 66.7% groundball rate with the pitch, along with a zero-degree average launch angle against.
Consistently inducing groundballs is a great skill to have, but it hasn’t translated to positive outcomes for Peterson. Opponents are hitting .297 against his sinker with a .378 SLG and .349 wOBA. Much like with his four-seamer, the expected stats on Peterson’s sinker suggest Peterson deserved worse outcomes. He has a .309 xBA, .454 xSLG, and .380 xwOBA against his sinker this season. He’s been mixing in both his fastballs this season, and truthfully neither seems all that effective.
What about his secondary stuff? Peterson may not blow us away with his heat, but perhaps the crafty lefty’s secondary stuff can prop him up. His most used secondary pitch in this start was his changeup, which he threw 24% of the time, tied for a season-high. Peterson mostly throws his changeup to righties, so it makes sense that he relied so heavily on his changeup against Colorado. The Rockies threw eight righties at him, and Peterson’s changeup has been money this season. Batters are hitting .103 against the pitch along with a .179 SLG and .237 wOBA. However, the expected stats once again suggest that Peterson has been lucky with the pitch. Peterson has a .234 xBA, .363 xSLG, and .343 xwOBA with his changeup this season. He still has a strong 14.3% swinging strike rate and a 32.5% chase rate with the pitch this season, making it one of his best strikeout options.
Speaking of strikeouts, what happened to Peterson’s? He had a strikeout rate of at least 24% in each of his last three seasons but has just an 18.4% strikeout rate this season. Peterson is a pretty fringy pitcher in terms of fantasy, so he really needs those strikeouts to have value. In the past, Peterson has relied on his slider for strikeouts, but he’s begun throwing the pitch less often this year. He’s using it just 19.9% of the time, compared to a 23.6% career usage rate. Now, he was at 19.7% last year so this isn’t a new development for Peterson, but it’s a curious one.
The slider has long been Peterson’s best strikeout pitch, including this season where he still has a strong 17.8% swinging strike rate and 34.2% chase rate. Batters have hit the pitch well with a .286 AVG, .500 SLG, and .359 wOBA off the pitch this season. However, Peterson has a .239 xBA, .429 xSLG, and .311 xwOBA with the pitch, suggesting that he’s been unlucky with it thus far. It’s a strange situation to be in because most of the metrics suggest that Peterson has been lucky this season, but through the good fortune, he’s still been a little unlucky with his best strikeout pitch.
The slider outcomes don’t fully explain the dip in strikeouts. Peterson has also experienced a big drop-off with his curveball this season. He had a 15% swinging strike rate and a 37.8% chase rate with his curveball last season but has just an 8.1% swinging strike rate and a 25% chase rate this season. The curveball has never been a big part of Peterson’s game, but it was a decent strikeout weapon in his back pocket that seems to be gone. He’s lost a half inch of break this season, which may help explain the drop-off. Perhaps he doesn’t have the same feel for the pitch. Regardless, he isn’t getting the same results, and we shouldn’t expect Peterson’s strikeouts to come back this season.
Verdict:
Peterson has a nice shiny 3.47 ERA, but nothing under the hood suggests that he deserves such a low number. All of his ERA estimators are above 4.40, and he has a 5.42 xERA. His 18.4% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, and he seems to have lost the whiff ability with his curveball. Peterson has also benefited from an unsustainable 81.5% LOB rate, a number that will certainly come down at some point. Peterson does pitch for a good team and has been effective so far, so he’s not the worst streamer in the world. There’s just not a lot of upside in this profile anymore, and there’s a lot more risk to starting him than his ERA would suggest. His next start is scheduled for August 14 against Oakland, and he’s a fine start in that one, but not a great long-term option.
Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins – 19% Rostered
2024 Stats (prior to this start): 5.96 ERA, 48.1 IP, 5.14 FIP, 16.7% K-BB%
8/9 vs. SD: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
Cabrera had one of his best starts all season on Friday, blanking the Padres over seven innings. Unfortunately, Miami’s offense and bullpen couldn’t come through and Cabrera was left with a tough luck no decision, but this was still an encouraging start. In fact, Cabrera has been on a roll as of late. He may have a 5.20 ERA on the year, but Cabrera has a cool 2.00 ERA over his last five starts. Cabrera has definitely faked us out before, but there’s talent in this right arm. Is Cabrera finally ready to put it together, or will this fish flounder?
Originally an international free agent signed by the Marlins back in 2015, Cabrera worked his way through Miami’s system and became one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. He was ranked as highly as the No. 34 prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline in 2022. Scouts saw Cabrera as a potential frontline starter, and with a career 10.28 K/9, it’s easy to dream of his upside. Cabrera works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a changeup, four-seam fastball, curveball, slider, and sinker.
Cabrera is an unusual pitcher in that his fastball isn’t his most used pitch. That would be his changeup, which he throws 37.6% of the time and used 54% of the time in this start. Watch Cabrera pitch and it’ll be no secret why his changeup is his primary pitch. A 92.7 mph offering, the pitch is harder than many pitchers’ fastballs, making it downright nasty. Batters have really struggled with this pitch this season as well, hitting just .171 with a .293 SLG and .248 wOBA. The expected stats suggest that Cabrera may have overperformed with the pitch to a degree, but not egregiously. He has a .214 xBA, .363 xSLG, and .292 xwOBA off the pitch this season. Here’s an example from this start.
Edward Cabrera, Silly 95mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/78aSyPewGV
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 10, 2024
That’s a 95 mph changeup. Not only is the pitch hard, but it’s deceptive with an average of 1,649 RPM. Cabrera gets strong swing-and-miss with the pitch as well, with a 16.3% swinging strike rate and a monster 38.4% chase rate this season. Even when batters manage to make contact they aren’t striking it well, with an average exit velocity of just 84.4 mph and a four-degree average launch angle. Cabrera also has a 55.6% groundball rate with the pitch, so he’s getting plenty of positive outcomes with the pitch. Any way you slice it, Cabrera’s changeup is the real deal.
So, we’ve established Cabrera’s changeup is good, but why hasn’t he been good? How can a pitcher have such a lethal weapon at his disposal and also have a 5.20 ERA? The inability to consistently throw strikes has played a factor. Cabrera has an ugly 12.8% walk rate this season and walked three batters in this start. Even during his five-start hot stretch, Cabrera has a bloated 14.4% walk rate. We’ve seen plenty of pitchers succeed despite poor control and we’ve seen plenty of pitchers like Cabrera turn it around and find success, but Cabrera has shown little improvement in this regard and it’s unlikely that he suddenly finds control midseason. He will carry this flaw with him all year, which means an elevated WHIP and ERA.
Free passes are just one of several issues that plague Cabrera and prevent him from realizing his full potential. His fastball has been absolutely clobbered by opponents this season. Batters are hitting .375 with a .625 SLG and .496 wOBA against Cabrera’s four-seamer this season. He’s definitely been unlucky with the pitch, but he still has a .280 xBA, .482 xSLG, and .419 xwOBA against his four-seamer. Batters are pulverizing the ball for a 93 mph average exit velocity and a 21-degree average launch angle. It’s no wonder Cabrera has served up so many extra-base hits given the quality of contact he’s allowing.
Lastly, one of the biggest drawbacks to rostering Cabrera is his inefficiency. Cabrera may have gone seven innings in this one, but this was just the second time all season that he completed at least six innings. He’s averaging less than five innings per start, meaning wins and quality starts will be hard to come by. Wins are already hard to come by for the Marlins, and Cabrera’s inefficiency on the mound further hinders his ability to get those crucial victories, along with providing decent volume for rate stats and strikeouts. An 11.06 K/9 is nice, but it’s less nice when the pitcher can’t go deep into games.
That’s the issue with Cabrera. On paper, he should be a lot better. Other than his four-seamer, his pitches are all performing well. Batters are hitting under .215 against his curveball, slider, and sinker this season. He also has a strong 14.5% swinging strike rate and a 31.4% chase rate with his curveball, along with a 61.5% groundball rate with his slider. The stuff is legit for Cabrera, but he remains a raw talent that will likely suffer from ups and downs for the remainder of the season.
Verdict:
I want to like Edward Cabrera, I really do. His changeup is filth epitomized, and he’s got a strong arsenal of pitches making him a delight to watch when he’s on. Unfortunately, there are still tons of flaws in his game. The biggest issue still remains his control, which doesn’t seem to be improving anytime soon. Throw in a shaky four-seamer and a short leash and you’ve got a middling fantasy arm. Cabrera is sort of like a poor man’s MacKenzie Gore, in that he can produce strikeouts and look really good at times, but is still raw and struggles with control. While I think both could break out at some point, Cabrera seems even further away than Gore from figuring things out. He’s a Hail Mary streamer in standard mixed leagues for now.
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