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There are plenty of advanced metrics and estimated projections to help fantasy football managers uncover potential sleepers and risers heading into 2023 fantasy drafts, but evaluating running backs with a chance at increased red zone work is a key indicator.
The running back position saw plenty of turnover this offseason and many teams moved on from its 2022 red zone touch leader. Simply put, running backs with increased red zone opportunity have higher touchdown upside, so it's a savvy move to evaluate who could see an uptick in their work inside the 20-yard line.
In this article, we'll dive into some key risers and sleepers stemming from vacated red zone touch evaluation. Plenty of players on this list aren't "sleepers" by any means, but they could have even higher ceilings than perceived with additional high-value touches. Let's dive in!
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David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs; Detroit Lions
Key Departures: Jamaal Williams (62 red zone touches), D'Andre Swift (34)
The duo of Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift had a largely productive 2022 campaign, but the Lions arguably got the upgraded version of both players. Williams notably scored 17 rushing touchdowns but averaged an unimpressive 4.1 yards per clip behind one of the league's best offensive lines. He posted 14 of the 17 touchdowns in the red zone – often coming from the goal line. Only Austin Ekeler posted more total red zone touches. Meanwhile, Swift rushed 23 times and scored five red-area touchdowns, while adding nine receptions on 13 targets.
Montgomery (224 lbs.) is set up to be the primary short-yardage back, while Gibbs (199 lbs.) should see looks near the end zone in the receiving game. Gibbs will have plenty of value as a pass-catcher in all areas of the field, but Montgomery could see the most advantageous red zone rush share in the entire NFL. At his RB27 FFPC ADP, he's a sleeper who could smash his cost in preseason drafts.
Rashaad Penny, D'Andre Swift; Philadelphia Eagles
Key Departure: Miles Sanders (49)
While quarterback Jalen Hurts did a ton of damage near the goal line last season, Miles Sanders ranked fourth among running back with 49 red zone touches. 10 of his 11 rushing scores on the season came from inside the 20-yard-line. Backup running back Kenneth Gainwell saw just 18 red zone touches.
Needless to say, the 220-pound Rashaad Penny should have plenty of opportunities to score, so long as he stays healthy. Swift will likely see some receiving work in that area, but he's also proven to be a slippery and elusive runner that can find the end zone. The high-powered Eagles offense should have no shortage of red zone trips, so both Penny and Swift are worth heavy consideration at their RB37 and RB26 ADPs respectively.
Penny is largely more favorable in standard leagues since he has no proven track record of receiving upside and Swift is one of the best pass-catching RBs in the NFL.
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings
Key Departure: Dalvin Cook (48)
Cook was a fixture in the red zone throughout his six-year stint with the Vikings, and after the team released him this offseason, it's Alexander Mattison time. Mattison has flashed as a fantasy producer when Cook has been absent or limited, posting five RB1 weeks over the last three seasons.
There's been speculation Mattison won't be utilized as a full-fledged workhorse, but he should have no problem commanding the majority of Minnesota's red zone work. Backups Kene Nwangwu (210 lbs.) and Ty Chandler (204 lbs.) have plenty of speed, but both back are a bit lighter than Mattison (215 lbs.) and haven't shown any flashes as offensive players in their young careers.
A Kirk Cousins-led offense consisting of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson should set Mattison up for plenty of easy scores. The 25-year-old currently carries an RB19 ADP. Even if he disappoints as an overall producer, his command of the red zone role should allow him to pay off at cost.
Damien Harris, James Cook; Buffalo Bills
Key Departure: Devin Singletary (40)
Singletary scored four rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown last season. In 2023, the more explosive Cook and the beefier Harris will likely split duties inside the 20-yard line. Harris is the obvious choice to command goal-line work, as the former New England Patriot has a 15-touchdown season on his resumé. However, Cook's receiving acumen could create favorable matchups for Buffalo in the short passing game near the end zone.
This offense is another key group to target when considering touchdown upside as the Bills have ranked third in points per game in each of the last three seasons. The team seemingly says it wants to limit Josh Allen's rushing attempts every year, but this could be the campaign it actually happens.
This backfield is arguably the most mispriced among all running backs via FFPC ADP. Cook is going off the board around the RB31 spot, while Harris is usually available after the first 40 running backs are selected. It's almost a certainty that one of them will smash their ADP.
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
Key Departure: Ezekiel Elliott (40)
Pollard is far from a sleeper and the majority of the fantasy football community is high on him, but it's worth noting he has an overall RB1 upside with his explosive skill set combined with a higher red zone opportunity share.
While Pollard was breaking out last season, Elliott had significantly more red zone touches (40 to 27) and scored 12 touchdowns in that area. Ronald Jones is dealing with a two-game suspension and Malik Davis (202 lbs.) should not be a threat to take the high-yield opportunities.
D'Onta Foreman, Khalil Herbert; Chicago Bears
Key Departure: David Montgomery (37)
While the Bears' offense has a wide range of outcomes, Foreman and Herbert should be the top contenders to eat up red zone opportunities. If Chicago's offense struggles again in 2023, this won't particularly matter. If it ascends as quarterback Justin Fields develops as a passer, one of the two backs could be a sleeper waiting to pay off.
The running back duo is reportedly sharing first-team reps this offseason, so Foreman (235 lbs.) could be a massive standard league value at his RB55 ADP.
Rachaad White, Ke'Shawn Vaughn; Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key Departure: Leonard Fournette (37)
Tampa Bay has one of the most unpredictable offenses in 2023. While it's tough to lose arguably the greatest player of all time in Tom Brady, the team didn't exactly have a high-powered offensive unit last season. That said, the offense can get better with a healthy group of receivers and offensive line and fresh new running backs in the fold.
Either way, White is going to see an uptick in his red zone work, and Ke'Shawn Vaughn, who is expected to be his primary backup, could have deep league value with an increased role.
Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns
Key Departure: Kareem Hunt (29)
Ford will step in for Hunt in 2023 and could see plenty of red zone targets as the Browns' primary pass-catching back. Cleveland is expected to be a bit more pass-happy this season and although Nick Chubb will handle high overall and red zone rushing share, Ford will benefit from Hunt's vacated red zone touches.
If Chubb has to miss at least a game or two, Ford could be in for a ton of touchdown upside if Cleveland's offense takes the next step, as many expect it to.
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