Alvin Kamara's 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook – Are You In or Out?

Alvin Kamara has been one of the very best fantasy running backs ever since he was drafted back in 2017. In fact, since that time he’s finished in the top five of half-PPR PPG in four out of six seasons. He’s finished as an RB1 five times and his very worst season was just this past year when he finished as the RB14 in half-PPR PPG. Despite this insane level of high-end consistency, he’s being drafted as the RB32 with an ADP just inside the first 100 picks.

Of course, his play is just part of the reason for this price. One of the causes for his price being what it is centered around his likely suspension. He pleaded not guilty to the previous charges of conspiracy to commit battery and substantial bodily harm. However, he recently came to a plea deal where Kamara plead no contest to a misdemeanor charge of breach of peace. He’s still likely to face suspension, but now that his legal charges include no felonies, that suspension, in theory, is likely to be less aggressive. We’ll break down all the risks with Kamara, including his possible NFL suspension, the running back additions, and his declining play to determine if and when you should be drafting him this summer.

You can find previous editions of the "Are You In or Out?" series here:

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

• Travis Etienne: In or Out Series Edition
• J.K. Dobbins: In or Out Series Edition
• Kyle Pitts: In or Out Series Edition
• George Pickens: In or Out Series Edition
• D.J. Moore: In or Out Series Edition
• Michael Pittman Jr.: In or Out Series Edition
• Aaron Jones: In or Out Series Edition
• Nick Chubb: In or Out Series Edition
• Javonte Williams: In or Out Series Edition
• Calvin Ridley: In or Out Series Edition
• Mike Williams: In or Out Series Edition

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Risk No. 1 — NFL Suspension

Even though he plead no contest to a misdemeanor charge, Kamara isn’t out of the water just yet. With the NFL’s Conduct Policy, he’s still eligible for a suspension. The fact that there’s video evidence of the event virtually guarantees Kamara will miss some time. When it comes to his suspension, no one knows what exactly will happen. The NFL’s suspensions have lacked consistency, which makes things more difficult. This means everyone, myself included, is making a guess on what that suspension will be.

The NFL’s Personal Conduct Policy states the following, “With regard to violations of the Personal Conduct Policy that involve: (i) criminal assault or battery (felony); (ii) domestic violence, dating violence, child abuse, and other forms of family violence; or (iii) sexual assault involving physical force or committed against someone incapable of giving consent, a first offense will subject the offender to a baseline suspension without pay of six games, with consideration given to any aggravating or mitigating factors.”

Kamara was not charged with a felony. The incident he was involved in was not domestic violence or a sexual assault-related incident. Seeing as the above mentions these three criteria, if met, could result in a suspension of six games for a first-time offender, which Kamara is, it would seem he’ll likely face a suspension of fewer than six games since he met none of the criteria. However, it bears repeating, the NFL hasn’t exactly been consistent.

Kamara has been in the league for six seasons and has no other incidents, not even minor ones. That’s a good thing and will help his case. It seems likely he is given a 4-5 game suspension. If he appeals it, which players have been known to do in the past, he could get a game or two knocked off. Every fantasy manager will need to come to their own hypothesis on how long they feel he could be suspended and act on that information. For our purposes here, I expect Kamara to ultimately serve a 3-4 game suspension.

Rebuttal

That’s far from ideal, but right now his ADP sits in the ninth round, which is barely a starting-level player anyways. So while the suspension of 3-4 games hurts his value, he’s currently being drafted in a range where many fantasy managers are selecting their first bench player or possibly even second if you’ve decided to wait on either quarterback or tight end, which will be the case for a good number of drafters. That makes the sting of suspension a lot less painful. In fact, one could argue the suspension might actually be a gift for the fantasy managers investing in him! We’ll come back to this soon.

Risk No. 2 — His Declining Skill and The Possibility of Losing His Job

Over the past two seasons, we’ve seen Kamara’s efficiency decline. He’s looked less explosive and his rushing numbers put an exclamation point on that claim. Simply put, his talent is declining.

The table above shows a player who is trending in the wrong direction. The past two seasons were the first time in Kamara’s six-year career that he’s posted a negative rushing yard over expected per-carry (RYOE/Carry) average. His attempt per broken tackle also sky-rocketed this past season and his breakaway run rate has decreased by 2–3%.

If Kamara is suspended for 3-4 games or more, which is still on the table, he may not return to the same role he once had. The Saints signed Jamaal Williams this offseason, drafted Kendre Miller in the third round, and still have short-yardage specialist, Taysom Hill. If these three players do well during Kamara’s suspension, it’s possible we’ve seen the last of him as a full-time starter in the NFL.

Rebuttal

There’s no disagreeing with the fact that Kamara’s rushing efficiency has decreased in recent seasons. Going back to that whole, “maybe the suspension is a positive” bit from before — without that suspension, he’d be drafted in the fourth round maybe? Which, considering his decreased rushing efficiency, I’d argue that would be more risky. The suspension lowers the risk because it dramatically lowers the price.

However, let’s rewind a bit, who is drafting him for his rushing anyways? Don’t get me wrong, we can’t have his rush attempts go to nil, but that’s not going to happen. Kamara has long been one, if not the best, pass-catching back in the NFL. His fantasy value hasn’t come from his rushing efficiency, it’s come from his role in the passing game, and in that sense, Kamara is still the force he’s always been.

His numbers, in every single one of these categories listed above, have ranked in the top 10 in each of the past two seasons. So while his rushing efficiency has gone down, his receiving value is still elite. Receptions are worth far more than rush attempts, so while the decline in rushing efficiency isn’t ideal, the primary reason you’re drafting Kamara — for his elite receiving role — is still very much alive.

As far as the rushing decline, there might be some explanation for this. Certainly, you can argue age is a factor. He’ll be 28 at the end of July, but that means he was just 26 in 2021 and 27 in 2022. 26 is closer to a running back’s prime than the cliff. That’s especially true for one of elite status like Kamara, so is there another reason other than the simple, but yes, rather lazy age narrative?

From 2019-2020, Kamara averaged 12.3 carries per game. Prior to 2021, he had never had a season with more than 195 carries. All that changed in 2021. His carries per game average ballooned to 18.5 and he finished with 240, 46 more than his prior career high. It’s no mystery that increased volume can negatively affect a player’s efficiency. Kamara was also tasked with a lot more running inside the tackles.

This past year, while his rush attempts per game dropped down to 14.9, he still finished with 223 carries, which was 29 higher than his previous career-high prior to 2021, when we began to see his efficiency wane. It should also be noted that during the 2021 season, Kamara’s attempt per broken tackle rate was still elite, and in 2022, his YAC/per attempt was top-12.

The 2022 campaign was also the first season Sean Payton was not the head coach. It should be expected that kind of transition is going to negatively affect the offense. Furthermore, the Saints suffered several injuries along their offensive line. Their first-round rookie left tackle, Trevor Penning, played fewer than 12% of the snaps. The team’s starting guards, Andrus Peat and Cesar Ruiz played just 55% and 83% of the snaps respectively. Their starting center, Erik McCoy played just 76% of the snaps. The offensive line injuries were present in 2021, as well. Starting left tackle Terron Armstead missed nine games. Starting right tackle Ryan Ramczyk missed seven games. Interior offensive line starters, Peat and McCoy missed 11 and five games respectively.

Going back to 2022, on top of the offensive line injuries, the team’s starting quarterback, Jameis Winston was injured in Week 3 and the team switched to Andy Dalton for the rest of the season. All of that will make a running back’s job incredibly difficult. Did his efficiency decrease? Yes. Is there a non-related skill issue that could help explain some of the decreases? Also, yes.

As far as his job being gone when he gets back, that’s malarkey. Kamara has the ninth-highest cap hit among running backs. With the money they’re paying him, he’s going to play. Also, he’s still one of the very best pass-catching backs in the league, so that job isn’t going anywhere. It’s possible, maybe even likely, his rush attempts per game scale back to that 11–13 range he was at from 2018–2020, but that doesn’t necessarily have to be a bad thing. The decreased volume could result in an increase in efficiency.

Risk No. 3 — Touchdown Vultures

Kamara has long been one of the best touchdown-scoring running backs in the NFL. From 2017-2020, he averaged 14.5 touchdowns per season, which includes the 2019 season when he found the end zone just six times! Now, with Williams, who scored 17 touchdowns last year for the Lions, and Hill, who has averaged 6.67 rushing scores per season over the last three years, fantasy managers should be expecting Kamara’s touchdown total to be below seven. Maybe even below five! Where’s the upside with a running back who barely scores?

Even with 280 touches last year and Williams still a Detroit Lion, Kamara finished with just 31 red zone touches, which was 29th among running backs. Now, with Williams in New Orleans, those scoring opportunities will deplete even further.

Rebuttal

Who cares? Is that a rebuttal? Does that count? But seriously, he scored just four touchdowns last year. Did it affect his fantasy value? Sure, it didn’t allow him to reach the top-10 heights we’ve become accustomed to, but it didn’t stop him from being a highly valuable fantasy asset. What’s more, he’s not being drafted as a highly valuable fantasy asset! He’s being drafted as an RB3 in the ninth round, where most teams already have their entire starting lineup filled up.

In 2022, Kamara found the end zone four times and still finished as the RB14 in half-PPR PPG. As we’ve already established his rushing role is likely to decrease. So okay, let’s chop his 223 rush attempts down to 190. He averaged four yards per carry, which comes out to 132 fewer rushing yards or roughly 0.88 PPG, which leaves him at 11.8. Last year, that would’ve finished as the RB22. Who is unhappy with drafting the RB22 in the ninth round? I would suspect the answer is no one. The answer should be no one.

So… Are You In or Out?

Kamara has risks. News flash: so does literally every player in the ninth round. All of them. James Cook is going ahead of him. Will Cook score touchdowns with Damien Harris and Josh Allen? How many carries will he get? Will Allen, who has routinely not targeted running backs, target Cook enough to make up for his lack of rush attempts and touchdowns?

Jameson Williams is going ahead of him. He’s got a six-game suspension already. That’s guaranteed. Do we even know if Williams is good? Michael Thomas is going ahead of him. Do I really need to go into that one? Courtland Sutton is also being drafted before Kamara. I don’t think I need to go into that one either. The point is, every single one of them has risks. It’s the ninth round. If they didn’t have risks, they wouldn’t be ninth-rounders.

Now, how many of them are likely to finish as top-24 options at their positions? In that sense, Kamara’s odds are undoubtedly the best. Why? Because he has always been a top-24 RB. Always. Actually, he’s never finished below the top-15 RB which gives you plenty of wiggle room on that one. If that reasoning isn't good enough, how about this one? Because Kamara has the receiving role on lockdown and he’s never had less than five targets per game. In any PPR league, he’s still an extremely good bet to finish in the top-24 because of that receiving role.

Considering the upside Kamara still possesses, fantasy managers should be all-in on him at his current ninth-round price. I’d be willing to take him in the eighth round and even the seventh round. His ADP with the plea deal will move up in the coming days, but he’s still an incredible bargain with massive upside. All of the risks, they’re more than baked into the price. After all, how many times can you draft a running back who has never finished outside the top-15 RB in the ninth round?

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