RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 200
CURRENT ADP: ~275 overall
ANALYSIS: I am proud to say that I was an Alex Lange owner and fan before 2023. Of course, it was a holds league, but still, I knew this day was coming even if Gregory Soto had remained in Detroit. This brings me to my next point, Soto is gone! Since the Soto trade, Lange's ADP has shot up to ~275 on NFBC. But hopefully, in those fun home leagues, he's still buried on the draft board list.
The 27-year-old had a fairly impressive 2022 campaign, nabbing 24 Holds while sporting a 3.41 ERA, 3.29 xERA, and 30.3 K%. He made some drastic pitch mix changes after a very mediocre start to his MLB career in 2021. Scrapping his 4-seam fastball, he threw his curveball at a league-leading 48.8% rate. His curve's 57.8 Whiff% was the 10th-highest of any pitch in baseball, and replacing his 4-seam with a sinker aided in raising his GB% over 10 points while subsequently dropping his LD%.
But as we saw for many seasons in Boston with Matt Barnes, when you live and die by the curveball, finding the strike zone can be quite difficult. Lange was no exception as his 11.4 BB% slightly bloated his ratios (1.23 WHIP). There may be some rough wild stretches along the road, but you will be hard-pressed to find a safer source of saves this late in drafts, especially with a helpful ERA and K%.
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