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Rookie wide receivers have started to dominate the fantasy football landscape over recent years. A.J. Brown was the WR15 overall in 2019. We saw Justin Jefferson finish as the WR6 overall in 2020, with fellow rookies CeeDee Lamb and Chase Claypool finishing inside the top-20. The trend continued in 2021, with Ja'Marr Chase finishing as the WR5 overall, while Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith finished inside the top-30.
Rookie wide receivers are now drafted higher than in the past because of these breakout players, making finding the one who can well outproduce their value incredibly important. The likes of Drake London, Treylon Burks, Chris Olave, and Garrett Wilson are all being drafted between rounds eight and 10.
That is decent value, but there is one receiver whose average draft position (ADP) is 203 overall as the 76th wide receiver off the board that carries high upside. His name is Alec Pierce of the Indianapolis Colts.
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Alec Pierce College Production
Pierce spent four years at the University of Cincinnati, registering receiving stats in all but his freshman season. He missed time in 2020 due to a Grade One Knee Strain and a shoulder injury but finished his college career with a strong senior year.
| Games | Receptions | Receiving Yards |
Yards Per Reception |
Receiving TD |
| 12 | 37 | 652 | 17.6 | 2 |
| 6 | 17 | 315 | 18.5 | 3 |
| 14 | 52 | 884 | 17 | 8 |
In the American Athletic Conference during the 2021 season, Pierce finished fifth in touchdowns, fourth in receiving yards, and second in yards per reception. He was a big play machine and Desmond Ridder's favorite target.
The AAC is not a high-profile conference in college football, but the Colts did not let Pierce fall far, as they drafted him 53rd overall in the second round of this past April's NFL Draft. He will now compete to start on the outside opposite Michael Pittman Jr.
Alec Pierce's Path To Starting and Fantasy Success
Behind Pittman Jr., the wide receiver room in Indianapolis is undefined. T.Y. Hilton and Zach Pascal are both gone, while Parris Campbell and Ashton Dulin will compete for the slot role.
Dezmon Patman, Mike Strachan, and DeMichael Harris are the only competition standing in Pierce's way to a starting role on the outside. For context, Patman and Strachan combined for seven targets last season, while Harris was on the practice squad.
The Early Returns from Colts Top Rookie WR Alec Pierce Have Been Promising at Minicamp https://t.co/HvRPIfokOM pic.twitter.com/olU5VpSazR
— Stampede Blue (@StampedeBlue) May 15, 2022
Pierce has received rave reviews out of camp thus far, and it is easy to see why. He has the speed to burn after running a 4.41 at the combine, and he is tough to stop deep in man coverage. Pierce has the chance to shine for fantasy with 154 targets up for grabs due to the departures from last season's roster (30.7% of the team's total targets).
The competition to land a starting role is not fierce, and there is an opportunity to see a decent target share, but how well will he mesh with Indianapolis' new starting quarterback Matt Ryan?
Alec Pierce - A Perfect Match With Matt Ryan
Not only are there 154 targets up for grabs, but Matt Ryan tends to target his No. 2 wide receiver in the endzone. From 2016 to 2020, Julio Jones was Ryan's top target. Julio finished with 26 touchdowns in total during these five seasons.
Ryan's No. 2 receiver combined to score 37 touchdowns during the same time frame. (I am excluding last season, as Ryan's top receiver, Calvin Ridley, played in only five games, and a slew of backup receivers had to replace him.)
Ryan tends to target the receiver facing lighter coverage than his top wideout when looking to score. Pierce's skill set fits perfectly with this tendency. He is a big body with speed to get open and good hands to secure the catch.
Pierce does not have to tally 80 receptions to make an impact for fantasy during his rookie season. All he needs to do is come down with a handful of touchdowns and make some big plays. The pairing with Ryan is perfect for that process to work out.
Alec Pierce Fantasy Football Outlook
Pierce has the right mix of target opportunity, little competition for a starting role, and touchdown upside to outproduce his ADP.
He may not have the highest target share compared to the rest of the rookie wide receiver class, but he has the skill set to produce for fantasy with a low reception total. With an ADP of 186 all the way in the back of the 15th round, Pierce has all the tools to finish as the best rookie wide receiver value in 2022.
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