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We’ve previously published an article series analyzing and grading all the NFL defenses, division by division. Now we’re going to look at the strength of schedules of each NFL team, division by division, to help you identify players with the best matchups vs. the league’s weakest defenses.
Today we provide AFC East strength of schedule analysis. For each team, we will identify players that we like and don’t like. You will see four categories: players to target, players to avoid, players to buy and players to sell. Let’s get to it.
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AFC East – Strength of Schedule Breakdown
New York Jets – Players to Target and Avoid
It’s become commonplace to rip on the Jets for how much of a mess they’ve been over the last few years but the team might not be as bad as we’re used to in 2015. Between running back Chris Ivory and wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, this is an offense that is actually a little underrated. Marshall is the most talented receiver they’ve had in years and Ivory and Decker both possess decent value at their current ADP. Geno Smith’s broken jaw shouldn’t really result in any major fantasy ramifications, as Ryan Fitzpatrick is a suitable replacement. Fitzpatrick is competent enough to get the ball to Marshall and Decker and can manage an offense accordingly.
The Jets open the season against a tough Cleveland defense but do get a crack at the Raiders, Titans, and Jaguars this year. Throw in the fact that they get to face a New England secondary that’s still riddled with holes twice this season and the Jets might actually have some great fantasy matchups this year. That’s at least five weeks of favorable matchups. There’s a common crutch argument that bad teams need to “play from behind,” resulting in a greater emphasis on the passing game. First of all, that’s not necessarily true. Second, the Jets aren’t as bad as you might think, and lastly, the team’s defense is good enough to keep them in every game anyway. There might not be any fantasy superstars in New York green this year but you can still get some production out of Marshall, Ivory, and Decker.
Players to Reach For
Chris Ivory is currently going in the late 7th round but I wouldn’t have an issue taking him a round or two earlier. He could very well end up as a top-20 back this season and snagging him in the fifth or sixth could prove to be excellent value.
Players to Avoid
Any quarterback on the Jets will possess little fantasy value this season so I wouldn’t bother with either Ryan Fitzpatrick or a returning Geno Smith. Again, they’ll be competent enough to get the ball to their wide receivers but shouldn’t turn into anything more than a low end QB2.
Players to Look to Buy Low
Much like Ivory, Brandon Marshall’s late 6th round ADP could turn out to be a steal, especially in a PPR league. The Marshall owner in your league might shrug him off since he’s on the Jets so don’t be afraid to ask for him in some sort of package deal toward the beginning of the season. Look for him to be a solid WR3 or strong flex play this year.
Players to Look to Sell High
If you’re in a two quarterback league and end up with Ryan Fitzpatrick, sell, sell, sell, the second he goes on a hot streak. There’s a chance Geno Smith regains the job upon returning and I don’t really think either play can sustain a full year of fantasy relevance anyway.
New England Patriots – Players to Target and Avoid
The news regarding Tom Brady’s nullified suspension kind of turned this past weekend’s fantasy drafts into a tailspin. Brady’s ADP has skyrocketed over the last few days which shouldn’t really come as a surprise. Obviously the presence of Brady should give all Patriots a slight fantasy boost since they now have their starter back under center for the first four games.
The Patriots have seemingly never been affected by their strength of schedule but you should keep in mind that all three of their division rivals have improved defensively. The Jets, Dolphins, and Bills all possess legitimately tough defensive matchups. That’s six hard matchups with both the Broncos and Texans sprinkled in there as well, upping that total to eight. That said, the Patriots have somehow managed to end up being matchup proof due to head coach Bill Belichick’s ability to find a weakness in the opposition. There might just be a few weeks where someone random who we’ve never considered as a fantasy option goes off. (See: Jonas Gray against the Colts last year.) Other than that, I wouldn’t worry too much about New England’s strength of schedule.
Players to Reach For
I’m honestly all in on the late surge regarding the Tom Brady hype train. He’s going to end the year as the fifth or sixth best fantasy quarterback so I have absolutely no issue taking him as early as the fourth round right after Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson.. I also don’t have an issue with taking Rob Gronkowski late in the first.
Players to Avoid
I don’t want anything to do with Brandon LaFell this year. He had a decent enough year last season but there’s simply too many other players I’d rather own.
Players to Look to Buy Low
With Jonas Gray cut, LeGarrette Blount is essentially the last man standing in the New England backfield. Both Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley left for new gigs so Blount is going to be the bell cow back for the Patriots. He’s going around the eighth round and I would bet the owner in your league let out a “meh” after selecting him. I’d scoop up Blount before he even has the chance to turn into a RB2.
Players to Look to Sell High
The only player on the Patriots I would consider selling high on rather than keep along for the ride is Rob Gronkowski but not for the reasons you might think. It’s not that I think he’s going to regress at any point in this season nor am I overly concerned about his health but rather that there’s likely going to be a fresh face at tight end who turns out to be great this year. Delanie Walker, for example, wasn’t drafted by many fantasy teams last season yet finished with excellent numbers. With that in mind, if I can grab a good TE off the waiver wire in week six or seven, why not cash in Rob Gronkowski’s chips for an upgrade at a different position?
Miami Dolphins – Players to Target and Avoid
The Dolphins loaded up on fresh offensive talent this offseason, bringing in the likes of Jordan Cameron, Kenny Stills, and DeVante Parker while signing Ndamukong Suh to a big contract to sure up their defense. All the moving parts on the Miami offense might be tough to sort out but overall this is a team that should provide great fantasy production across the board.
In terms of opponents, Miami will have roughly the same amount of tough matchups as the Patriots. Swap out the Broncos for the Ravens you’re looking at another 6-8 difficult games as far as fantasy is concerned. Given the diversity of Miami’s new offense, I think we’re already looking at a situation where it’ll be tough to determine which players break out any given week. Having said that, you might want to consider benching the likes of Lamar Miller against the Jets or Ravens if your depth is strong enough. Ryan Tannehill has enough weapons to counter a tough run defense with a solid air attack.
Players to Reach For
I like DeVante Parker as a late round flier over the likes of Kendall Wright, Pierre Garcon, and some other players going ahead of him. Everyone else on the Dolphins has the appropriate ADP.
Players to Avoid
I’m going to have to see something out of Kenny Stills before I can advocate owning him so it’s best to just steer clear of that one for now. It wouldn’t shock me if he ends up being the fourth receiver on this team so let someone else deal with that WR carousel.
Players to Look to Buy Low
Ryan Tannehill was a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2014. I’ll repeat that. Ryan Tannehill was a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2014. Not only that, but he has even more weapons at his disposal. If you’re in a deeper league or decide to wait on QB, Tannehill is the perfect mid-to-late round passer to target. He should easily finish the year inside the top-12.
Players to Look To Sell High
In a non-PPR league, I would sell high on Jarvis Landry once DeVante Parker is fully healthy. Parker could turn out to be this team’s number one receiver when healthy with Landry turning into more of a possession guy. Landry’s value was directly linked to his reception total in 2014 so his PPR prowess is solid. Take that away though and Parker might be the better play.
Buffalo Bills – Players to Target and Avoid
The biggest story in Buffalo has been the health of new running back LeSean McCoy’s hamstring. According to the man himself, he’ll be ready for week one but all McCoy owners and drafters should still be nervous. Either way, he’s set to be the lead back on a team that is going to run the hell out of the football. The rest of this offense is kind of a mess. Tyrod Taylor might give Sammy Watkins and Percy Harvin a much needed boost but doesn’t possess anything more than low-end QB2 value.
Since the ground game is what matters most for the Bills, it’s best that we focus on opponents with a strong run defense. The Bills face five teams who ranked within the top-10 in opposing rushing yards from 2014. That list includes the Patriots, Texans, Cowboys, and Jets who they play twice. That’s five games where a stout run D could become a factor for LeSean McCoy. The thing is, if you’re drafting McCoy, chances are he’s going to be your best option at RB anyway so you kind of just have to live with the tough matchups. That’s not a reason not to draft him at all but you’re not going to bench your first/second round pick. Just cross your fingers and hope he can outplay the defense he faces during those tougher weeks.
Players to Reach For
Eh, I think each Buffalo Bill has a fair ADP. Not sure I could advocate reaching for any particular guy here.
Players to Avoid
I will not own Sammy Watkins this year. I just don’t trust the quarterback play and I’d much rather take my chances on a Jarvis Landry, Vincent Jackson, or Martavis Bryant, players I know will have more consistent passers throwing them the ball.
Players to Look to Buy Low
I would bet you can probably still get LeSean McCoy for cheap right now as well as early in the season. Maybe you draft Antonio Brown in round one and can snag McCoy early in the second. Or, unless he explodes in week one, the McCoy owner in your league might be nervous about sticking with him and could be looking to deal. Either way, I think there’s been too strong of a negative reaction about his injury so although I am still nervous, I think his value is being driven too far down right now.
Players to Look to Sell High
Any wide receiver that churns out some flashy production in Buffalo is a sell high candidate. Whether it’s the aforementioned Watkins or Percy Harvin, the second you think you can get a better piece in return, sell high. I don’t trust Watkins to be consistent and Harvin can’t ever stay healthy long enough to be a key contributor. Sell away.
Editor’s Note: Be sure to read more about fantasy football strength of schedule (SOS) analysis, broken down by division and team, to prepare for your drafts and dominate your leagues.
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