Advanced Stats Breakdown: 2025 NFL Draft Prospects Who Dominate the Data

Sometimes, you don't have to look much further than the data to identify the NFL's next breakout stars. And some players dominate specific parts of the stat sheet, throwing up big green flags for their potential at the next level. Chasing elite efficiency and production often leads to good results.

The data can help you identify players who are lower on many draft boards, yet have underappreciated potential. Not all data is good data, so sifting through it all to find the most predictive and insightful statistics is worth your time. Luckily, I have you covered.

Let's discuss the 2025 NFL Draft's biggest stars (on paper) and whether it will translate to the next level.

• 2025 fantasy football rankings (redraft)
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings
• 2025 NFL rookie fantasy football rankings
• Best ball fantasy football rankings
• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings

QB Jaxson Dart

While he didn't lead the NCAA in passing yards or passing touchdowns, Dart had a significant lead in yards per pass attempt over his peers; aka, everyone who threw for more than 3,000 yards. He averaged 10.8 yards per pass attempt -- the second-highest total featured multiple players tied for 9.5 yards per throw. That's a ridiculous number and an impressive lead.

Yards per pass attempt is arguably more important than total passing yards because more attempts mean more chances to log gains. Dart's efficiency was awe-inspiring. He routinely maximized yardage pickups given the opportunities he had.

How a young QB responds to pressure is the biggest separator in the NFL.

Jaxson Dart is my top QB in the 2025 Draft against pressure.

Numbers and tape back it up. pic.twitter.com/CRqrwMMrZ1

— David Syvertsen (@Ourlads_Sy) January 4, 2025

There are a few driving forces behind this, but his ability to handle pressure stands out. He was fantastic when defenders were closing in after they had beaten his offensive linemen. Additionally, when blitzed, he routinely took care of the football, avoided bad sacks, and got the ball out of his hands and into the mitts of his receivers. On blitz plays, there are fewer defenders in coverage.

a jaxson dart tweet? pic.twitter.com/a9qsEt3FtB

— parker fleming (@statsowar) January 29, 2025

And his ability to push the ball down the field while still managing to be highly accurate was seriously impressive. Speaking of statistics, finding players who separate themselves from the crowds on charts and buck the clear linear trends of those charts can be very insightful.

Dart did what was best for his offense, despite the risks. And it paid off, as he separated himself from the pack in more than one statistical area. He's extremely underrated in dynasty fantasy football right now, as he's likely the best quarterback in this class. He's my No. 1, at least.

RB Ashton Jeanty

Well, yes ... obviously. Jeanty finished one of the best running back seasons in the history of college football with 344 carries for 2,601 yards and 29 rushing touchdowns. He also caught 23 passes for 138 yards and one score. He easily led the country in rushing, gaining 890 more yards than Arizona State RB Cam Skattebo, who was in second place. And he averaged 7.0 yards per carry along the way.

People seem to forget that Ashton Jeanty is one of the greatest receiving back prospects of all time…

His receiving numbers in 2023:

• 578 receiving yards
• 5 receiving TDs
• 44 receptions
• 48 targets
• 0 drops
• 24 missed tackles forced
• 13.1 yards/rec pic.twitter.com/jOEoYs4G8W

— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) February 2, 2025

Interestingly, his receiving stats took a dip from 2023, though we know from that season that he's capable of being a great receiving back. But he had nearly twice as many receptions that season, so it's just because they threw him the ball less. But he's now had fantastic seasons as a running back in both the ground and air games.

He's oozing with talent, and it should translate to the next level nicely. Statistics that are this outlandish generally aren't flukes. The tape shows an elite back with all the skills he needs to succeed at the next level, and the intelligence to implement them properly.

There is one issue with his game, and that's his vision. That could come to bite him at the next level. Boise State had great run-blocking, though it didn't get much attention because of Jeanty's exploits. Still, at the next level, it will probably hinder his production.

I'm sorry Jeanty has awful vision compared RJ Harvey. Jeanty against good competition had the opportunity to cut back several times, but he runs directly into the filled holes. @rjharvey07 had to run for his life against P4 teams all season. Pay attention scouts! @nfldraftscout pic.twitter.com/OmmI7MBKYa

— UCF Island🌴 (@ucfisland) January 1, 2025

Usually, the bad plays get lost in the sea of good ones, and with good reason. But a step up in competition can magnify a player's flaws. This is an area of Jeanty's game he needs to work on. Not taking the huge gap on the left side doesn't make much sense.

RB RJ Harvey

Despite a dominant 2024 season, UCF Knights running back RJ Harvey is inexplicably flying under the radar, though as time goes on and more of the NFL scouting community comes to their senses, his stock should rise. He was also an elite back in college and should be viewed as an elite prospect for the next level.

All-American RJ Harvey 2024 Highlights pic.twitter.com/0QY29H5mhy

— UCF Football (@UCF_Football) December 16, 2024

And his statistical dominance extends to last season, too. He's now averaged over six yards per carry three years in a row, and he rushed 226 times for 1,416 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2023. He followed that up with 232 carries for 1,577 yards and 22 rush scores in 2024. And despite RBs typically recording low yards per catch totals, he averaged 12.5 and 13.4 yards per reception in his final two seasons and scored five touchdowns through the air combined.

Harvey's tape backs up his production. He has a fantastic suite of skills, including great elusiveness, impressive burst, great top speed, improvisational ability, and vision. Harvey is in a stacked class and went to a "smaller" school, so he didn't get as much attention as the statistically elite Jeanty and other backs who went to bigger programs.

I expect UCF’s RJ Harvey to be RB riser post Senior Bowl

✅ patient runner with anticipation
✅ great changes direction
✅ slippery + elusive
✅ reliable hands + YAC upside

Could be a steal in rounds 3/4 of rookie drafts

pic.twitter.com/xTiD9yvZxF

— Matt Hicks (@TheFF_Educator) January 2, 2025

Yet for two years, he was unstoppable, both on the ground and through the air. Whatever NFL team gets its hands on him will likely realize quickly that it is in good hands if it gets him the ball as much as possible. It will depend on who he has to share a backfield with, obviously, but he should be very efficient if he gets drafted by a team with a good offense.

TE Harold Fannin Jr.

It's not often that you see a tight end leading all pass-catchers in receiving yards in college football, yet that's exactly what Bowling Green State University TE Harold Fannin Jr. did in 2024. In 13 contests, he racked up 117 receptions for 1,555 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, averaging 13.3 yards per catch.

Harold Fannin Jr. is the most productive TE in NCAA history, posting 1,555 yards and 10 TDs in 2024.

Has an impressive 2.2% career drop rate and caught 54.5% of contested balls in 2024, and eluded 33(!!) tackles.

He’ll be 20 on draft night. Also peep that blocking at the end 👀 pic.twitter.com/Eg0vzGMnAP

— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) January 17, 2025

But ... yes, he is an awkward mover, lumbering in his running, and had a huge amount of "wouldn't happen in the NFL plays." The idea of that is easy to criticize as nonsense, but it's a fact that defenses are much better at absolutely everything in the NFL, and the gap between offense and defensive skill is significantly narrower. In fact, in recent years, defenses have the advantage.

Many of Fannin's big plays were the result of horrible defensive tackling efforts and positioning and size mismatches that just won't be present at the next level.

On this catch…

Harold Fannin became the new FBS single season record holder for receiving yards by a tight end

pic.twitter.com/I6lhqlBoo2

— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) December 27, 2024

For example, the above play is a bit absurd. Tight ends simply don't carry multiple tacklers with them at the next level. The lone exception in the last decade was Rob Gronkowski. Playing for Bowling Green will do that to a guy. It's not going to happen at the next level. The boring reality is that separation skills still reign supreme, as they do for receivers, in the NFL.

Harold Fannin Jr. absolutely dominating the 68 Ventures Bowl for Bowling Green. One of the greatest players in MAC history pic.twitter.com/QycEvPqoN2

— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) December 27, 2024

One-on-one reps at the Senior Bowl aside, Fannin isn't a great separator, though many of his plays against defenders who will never sniff an NFL field may convince you otherwise. And his quarterback didn't have many other options in the passing game, so feeding the TE made the most sense.

To think that an individual player's stats are so good in college that they can't possibly struggle at the next level is absurd because we've seen it happen far too many times. College production doesn't necessitate usage at the next level, and busted coverages are much, much less common.

WR Tre Harris

None of this year's receivers stood out particularly well statistically in season-long numbers, at least. But Ole Miss Rebels wide receiver Tre Harris annihilated receiving efficiency statistics so hard that it's difficult to comprehend. His dominance against man coverage was stunning, and while it's obvious from the tape, it's just fun to look at some of the charts he blew up.

It’s gonna be very hard not to sell me on Tre Harris as a round one receiver. Definition of a man beater 💪 pic.twitter.com/aXG961vBRA

— Air Raid | Buffalo (@TheBillsGuys) December 28, 2024

Typically, receivers who go to smaller schools have a significant advantage over those facing tougher competition in the SEC and Big Ten conferences. Yet, Harris' per-route yardage stats led the country against both man and zone coverages. He was the only player to average over four yards per route run against zone and averaged over twice what any other receiver could against zone.

For reference, anything over 3.5 yards per route run against either type of coverage is considered excellent in college football. Over nine YPRR against man is incomprehensibly good. Remember -- these statistics include routes on which the receiver wasn't targeted and didn't log a catch. The absurdity of this number isn't lost on me.

JAXSON DART TO TRE HARRIS! pic.twitter.com/UmNvZst2yJ

— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthew_CFB) November 23, 2024

Harris simply crushed the man across from him when they lined up together. He was the toughest player to guard one-on-one in CFB this year.

considering tre harris pic.twitter.com/GWlCydwoMU

— Matt St. Jean (@mattstdream) December 10, 2024

It makes sense when you watch the tape. He's developed a beautiful suite of smooth route-running skills that force defenders into impossible conundrums. On the above route, he forces the defender to bite on the slant before quickly slamming on the brakes and turning it into an out route, causing the defender to fall.

Harris is easily the best route runner in this year's class, and the statistics have laid it out for us. It's incredibly obvious, yet consensus still thinks he's not worth taking early in the first round. He'll see immediate success in the league. Route runners who are this good generally do, no matter what reasons most analysts invent to dislike them.

I like Tre Harris because he’s:

•sharp in his routes (albeit inconsistently)
•great body control in ability to accelerate<>decelerate, change direction, navigate sideline
•wins vertically
•wins contested (see below)

Personally think he moves better than Tet McMillan.
He’s… https://t.co/Hsc99Dibrb pic.twitter.com/2jz4YbkTin

— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) January 23, 2025

He's also a big-bodied, tall wideout with a great catch radius, and has excellent contested-catch abilities. That's a secondary skill as a "nice to have," but not what he bases his game on. And despite not being a great speedster, he finds ways to win downfield, which is important.

His skills should translate immediately, and you should target him in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts because he's the best WR in this class. The statistics prove it.

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