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Brandon Murchison compares ADP of running backs Josh Jacobs and Nick Chubb to determine which player is a better draft value at RB for the 2020 fantasy football season.
With drafts right around the corner, it's time to dig in and start the final preparations. Preparing for drafts means developing a strategy and what you should expect as the time draws closer. One way to do so is by having a good understanding of current ADP data. The current ADP will give fantasy owners an idea of where players will be coming off the board. This is vital knowledge as you queue players up or having certain individuals in mind as drafts move along. Because it's always better to get your guy earlier than ADP indicates as opposed to waiting and being sniped at the last second. This strategy will be more important than ever in 2020 as it relates to the running back position.
With more teams employing the shared workload backfields, finding the right RB with upside to fill your roster is a must. While other skill positions seem to be getting deeper, bell-cow running backs continue to be fewer and far between. Two of those backs that are being widely debated at the moment are Josh Jacobs and Nick Chubb. Both of these players had great 2019 seasons, but heading into the new year we could point out devaluing factors for both players.
Having questions marks about your potential RB1 is never a good way to start a draft. But with both of these players' current ADP having them come off the board at the end of round one, the more good you can find on the player the better you will feel about your decision. Each will be considered to fill RB1 roles in fantasy drafts in 2020, but which should you be leaning on if presented the opportunity to draft them late in the first round? Josh Jacobs and Nick Chubb, even if they have short-comings, are expected to be large contributors in fantasy for the 2020 season. But the question remains, who should you be drafting based on current ADP data? We dive into the numbers and I'll attempt to discern who should come out ahead as you prepare for draft day.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
ADP: RB8 (10th Overall)
Josh Jacobs' rookie season was considered a massive success. Although he did miss three games towards the end of the year, Jacobs' 1,150 rushing yards and seven scores were good enough to land him a spot as the RB21 at season's end. He showed off the athleticism and elusiveness that had many analysts drooling as he led the league in avoided tackles with 69 on the season. He was seventh in the league in rushing yardage, but most other metrics he landed in the teens in rankings, mostly due to the games missed. But another knock on Jacobs was his involvement in the Raiders passing games. Only bringing in 20 receptions on 26 targets, this was a bit of a dent in his value in PPR formats.
Looking ahead to the 2020 season, many are expecting to see Jacobs' targets to increase. But the moves made by the team would indicate that they are move than fine with his role in the backfield. The team continues to talk up the play of Jalen Richard as the passing-down back (29 receptions on 39 targets) and the selection of Lynn Bowden in the NFL Draft only convolutes the receptions in this backfield even more. So the rushing abilities of Jacobs will continue to be where he makes his money for owners in fantasy scoring.
He will be running behind a Raiders offensive line that was graded out to be the 18th best run-blocking unit in the league in 2019 (per PFF). If the players along the Raiders line continue to progress forward, they could move back into the top-10. Which will make for more room for Jacobs as he looks to avoid the sophomore slump. A 1,600 total yard, eight score season seems within the realm of possibility for Jacobs in 2020 and will put him in the RB1 area easily. But he must show that he can stay on the field and an increase in target share to truly realize his potential.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
ADP: RB9 (Overall 11th)
Chubb's second NFL season saw a massive increase in production (261.20 FP) on his way to an RB8 finish on the season. He dominated touches in the Browns' backfield (298 attempts) and contributed six RB1 weekly finishes to fantasy owners. Even running behind the 23rd-best offensive line (per PFF), Chubb had 66 avoided tackles on the year with a robust 5.01 YPC.
His YPC on that many touches behind that line is a great indictment on the type of runner that Chubb is and the value he possesses. Although he's not a top option in the Browns' passing attack, his 45 targets and 39 receptions were good enough to give him the added PPR boost. But those targets did fall off once Kareem Hunt made his return from suspension.
The main objective of the Browns during the offseason was to improve the situation with the offensive line. They did just that with the acquisition of Jack Conklin and the selection of Jedrick Wills in the NFL Draft. The hope is that these additions will make the Browns offensive line one of the best in the league, in turn making Chubb's ability as a runner that much more effective. There is a good chance that Chubb leads the league in rushing in 2020, and could push for double-digit scores as well.
For that to happen, he must improve on his goal-to-go rushing (converting only three out of 16 attempts in 2019). If he continues to get the goal-line work over Hunt, Chubb's regular workload should remain the same, making him a highly valuable player across all formats. With new head coach Kevin Stefanski, it is expected that Browns will be a much more high powered offense in 2020 and that will give Chubb more than enough opportunities. Even with the presence of Kareem Hunt in the backfield for the entire season.
Verdict
As for what I would do if presented with the chance to draft either one of these players, I will be going with Nick Chubb for the 2020 season. Both Chubb and Jacobs presents massive potential for the season and will be popular RB1 choices for all those owners drafting at the back-end of the first round. But the choice for me is simple.
Both Chubb and Jacobs seem to have similar ceilings when it comes to passing game involvement, but Chubb wins in terms of what he will be able to do as a runner this season. His rushing yardage should be greater than Jacobs's output and he should have more touchdown potential. That's not to mention that I am currently trusting the Browns offense just a bit more than the Raiders as the season gets closer.
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