X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

ADP Showdown - George Kittle vs. Darren Waller

darren waller fantasy football rankings news NFL DFS lineup picks

Who to draft? Adam Koffler compares ADP of tight ends George Kittle and Darren Waller to determine which player is a better draft value at TE for 2021

George Kittle and Darren Waller finished as the TE3 and TE2 in terms of fantasy points per game respectively last season. But should you draft them as such this season, and which player presents the better value at their current average draft position (ADP)?

Per FantasyDataNFL, Kittle currently has an ADP of 28.5 in PPR, making him an early third-round pick in 12-team leagues. Waller, meanwhile, has an ADP of 22.9, making him a late second-round pick in 12-team leagues. The question becomes, is it worth using your late second-round pick on Waller, or should you hold out and draft Kittle in the next round instead?

Let's dive into some data and come up with the best strategy!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Which Players Have a Similar ADP?

Let's first take a look at which players have a similar ADP to both Waller and Kittle. The ADPs of DK Metcalf (20.2), Patrick Mahomes (20.8), Justin Jefferson (23.1), J.K. Dobbins (24), and A.J. Brown (25.5) all fall within +/- 3 spots of Waller at 22.9. Meanwhile, the ADPs of David Montgomery (26.6), Keenan Allen (26.9), Chris Carson (29.7), Terry McLaurin (29.8), and CeeDee Lamb (31) all fall within +/- 3 spots of Kittle at 28.5.

As you can see, most of the sure-fire RB1s, as well as most of the consensus top-five wide receivers (Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, and Calvin Ridley), are off the board by the time Waller is being drafted.

Because the value difference between Dobbins and Carson, or Metcalf and Allen is very much subjective and in the eyes of the beholder, the best way to look at the Waller vs. Kittle argument is to pretend their ADPs are the same. Every draft board is different, and thus ADPs are subject to move up or down even as many as five spots in the early rounds. Because their ADPs are so close, we'll simply focus on which player has the higher upside heading into the 2021 season.

 

Can Darren Waller Replicate His Dominant 2020 Season?

Waller showed us last season that 2019 wasn't a fluke. In his first season as a starter for the Raiders in 2019, Waller led all pass-catchers with 117 targets, good for a 23.8% target share. He also caught 76.9% of those targets. To put that number into perspective, Travis Kelce has never had a catch percentage higher than 72.4% since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starting quarterback for the Chiefs.

Waller followed up his 2019 season with an even more impressive, and frankly dominant, 2020 season. His target share grew to 27.7% and he still managed to catch 73.8% of passes thrown his way. He also led all tight ends in red-zone targets with 27 and was 2nd amongst all pass-catchers behind just Davante Adams, who led the league with 32 red-zone targets. Simply put, if the targets are there, Waller is going to produce, and produce in a big way. But will he see another 9.1 targets per game in 2021 as he saw a season ago?

The Raiders lost their top wideout in Nelson Agholor to the Patriots this offseason. To replace him, they brought in John Brown and Willie Snead IV. Neither of these guys projects to fill the WR1 role in 2021. Instead, that could belong to Bryan Edwards, who has received lots of praise from Jon Gruden and the Raiders coaching staff in training camp. Henry Ruggs IV, like Edwards, also enters his second NFL season. Even if Edwards, Ruggs, or both take a step forward in 2021, it'd be a total shock if someone other than Waller became Derek Carr's go-to receiver, especially in the red zone.

Another data point that bodes in Waller's favor is the fact that the Raiders played at a faster pace in 2020 than they did in 2018 and 2019 in coach Gruden's first two seasons. They were 24th in plays per game in 2018 and 2019 with 62.1 plays per game, while in 2020 they ranked 14th with 64.8 plays per game.

 

Can George Kittle Lead All 49ers Pass-Catchers in Targets in 2021?

After winning the NFC West in 2019 with a 13-3 record, the 49ers hit a proverbial wall in 2020, going just 6-10 and finishing dead last in the division. This was likely a result of the numerous injuries they dealt with throughout the season. Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, and Jeff Wilson Jr. all missed a number of games.

That led to more negative game scripts and more pass plays per game. In 2019, Garoppolo averaged just 28.2 pass attempts per game, ranked 31st in the league. In 2020, however, the 49ers averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game. That's clearly not what head coach Kyle Shanahan wants to do in order to win ball games. He would much rather run the football and control the clock, as evidenced by his teams' very successful 2019 campaign.

What does this all mean for Kittle though?

In 2018, he averaged 8.5 targets per game with a 26.5% target share. His competition for targets that season was Kendrick Bourne, Pierre Garcon, Marquise Goodwin, and Dante Pettis. So basically, there was no competition for targets, so Kittle was the target hog.

In 2019, Shanahan and the 49ers won 13 games by dominating opponents at the line of scrimmage and by controlling the clock. They added two formidable wide receivers in Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel, and all of a sudden Kittle averaged just 7.6 targets per game with a 22.9% target share. He still finished as the PPR TE2 in 2019, but that was due to his ridiculous 79.4% catch rate and the fact that Darren Waller only caught three touchdowns that season.

Now add in the fact that the 49ers could decide to roll with Trey Lance to start the season. Lance is a dual-threat quarterback who brings another element to the offense with his legs. He averaged 10 rushes per game in college, and could easily average 5-7 rush attempts per game in the NFL. If the 49ers are as good as we all think they are, the pass attempts per game likely revert back to the 2019 level when they threw just 28.2 times per game. With Aiyuk and Samuel flanking Kittle, don't expect many more than 7.6 targets per game in 2021.

 

Conclusion

In terms of ADP, Waller (22.9) and Kittle (28.5) are being drafted very close to one another. So much so, that it's almost negligible and we should simply be taking the tight end we feel has the higher upside. There will always be fantasy leagues where someone reaches for Kittle, and on the flip side, there will always be fantasy leagues where Waller falls into the third round.

So who should we take, Waller or Kittle?

Well, due to a variety of reasons discussed above, Waller is more likely to run more routes per game, have a higher target share, and see more targets (including red zone targets). In 2020, Waller ran 31.6 routes per game, while Kittle ran just 27 routes per game.

Additionally, in 2018 and 2019, Kittle averaged 1.3 red zone targets per game. In 2020, that number dipped to just 0.4 red zone targets per game. In comparison, Waller averaged 1.7 red zone targets per game last season.

The Waller vs. Kittle argument is a perfect reminder that in fantasy football we must always be forward-looking. There's no doubting Kittle's talent and the fact that he's been one of the best tight ends in the NFL over the last three seasons, but that doesn't mean he should be drafted in fantasy football over Waller, who more closely resembled the TE1, Travis Kelce, in 2020...and Kelce's ADP sits at 8.8.

It's almost as if you're getting Waller at a discount at an ADP of 22.9 since he only has one truly dominant season under his belt. Take advantage of this opportunity while it still exists, because it may not in 2022.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Josh Jung

Makes Early Exit On Sunday
Tyler Glasnow

Removed Early On Sunday
Darius Garland

Questionable For Game 4
Jaden Ivey

Making Progress
Frederik Andersen

Exits Game 4 With Injury
Jake Neighbours

Shines On Sunday With Three Points
Jordan Binnington

Makes 30 Saves In Game 4 Victory
Patrik Laine

Not Expected To Play In Game 4
Sam Montembeault

Labeled Day-To-Day
Jarren Duran

Collects Four Hits On Sunday
Tarik Skubal

Racks Up 11 Strikeouts
Aliaksei Protas

Considered A Game-Time Decision Sunday
Logan Thompson

A Game-Time Call Sunday
Clayton Kershaw

To Make Two Rehab Starts This Week
Jackson Merrill

Takes Batting Practice On Sunday
Sean Murphy

Taking A Seat On Sunday
Will Smith

Resting On Sunday
Max Brosmer

Minnesota Adds Insurance With Max Brosmer

Donovan Edwards Inks Deal With Jets
Tyler Fitzgerald

To Miss Second Straight Game
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

No Longer Facing One-Game Suspension

Nick Nash Signs With The Falcons
Kevin Gausman

Allows Six Earned Runs In Short Outing On Sunday
Cam Ward

Xavier Restrepo Reunites With Cam Ward In Tennessee
Wyatt Langford

Resting On Sunday
Ian Anderson

Claimed Off Waivers By The Braves
Connor Gillispie

Optioned To Triple-A On Sunday
Cedric Mullins

Sitting With Illness
Adley Rutschman

Out With Hand Injury
Jordan Westburg

Taking A Seat On Sunday
Michael Soroka

Set For Second Rehab Start
Spencer Horwitz

Batting Leadoff For Double-A Altoona
Nolan Schanuel

Knee Is Feeling Better
Victor Scott II

Taking A Seat On Sunday
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
William Nylander

Posts Two Assists In Losing Effort
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
Kyle Busch

Nearly Always Leads at Talladega, but Rarely Leads Much
Tyler Reddick

Drafting Track Record Worse Than It Looks
Daniel Suarez

Likely Motivated at Talladega Since Trackhouse Cars Likely Too Slow for Him to Win On Regular Tracks
Ryan Preece

Qualifies Fourth Due to Ford Dominance, but Don't Expect Him to Finish There
Justin Haley

Qualifies 37th in First Race After Rodney Childers's Departure
Chase Briscoe

Post-Daytona 500 Penalty Results in Much Worse Talladega Qualifying for Chase Briscoe
Alex Bowman

Starting Too Well for Place Differential Points, but Not Well Enough for Leader Points
Chris Buescher

Qualifies Sixth Thanks to Ford Dominance, but Probably Won't Lead Enough to Be Valuable in DFS
Ty Gibbs

Despite Current Momentum, Ty Gibbs Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Jake Sanderson

Keeps Senators Alive With Overtime Winner
Mackenzie Blackwood

Records First Postseason Shutout
Gabriel Landeskog

Scores First Goal In Nearly Three Years
Ivan Barbashev

Gives Vegas Vital Win
Nikita Kucherov

Records Three Assists In Game 3 Win
Troy Stecher

Cleared For Sunday
Jimmy Butler III

Ruled Out On Saturday
Isaiah Stewart

Questionable For Sunday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 4
Jrue Holiday

Won't Play On Sunday
Quinn Ewers

Dolphins Select Quinn Ewers In Seventh Round
Brenden Dillon

Out On Sunday
Mitchell Robinson

Questionable For Game 4 Versus Detroit
Luke Hughes

To Remain Out On Sunday
Michael Porter Jr.

Available On Saturday Night
Aliaksei Protas

Practices Fully On Saturday
Russell Westbrook

Won't Suit Up For Game 4
Gabriel Vilardi

A Game-Time Decision For Sunday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back A Game-Time Call On Saturday
Ross Colton

Unavailable Saturday
Miro Heiskanen

Remains Out Saturday
Riley Leonard

Drafted By Colts Saturday
Will Howard

Steelers Select Will Howard In Sixth Round Of NFL Draft
Kyle McCord

Eagles Add Kyle McCord To Quarterback Room
Ollie Gordon II

Miami Adds Ollie Gordon II To Backfield
Oronde Gadsden II

Chargers Add KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Oronde Gadsden II To Offense
DJ Giddens

Colts Add DJ Giddens To Backfield
Jaydon Blue

Dallas Cowboys Draft Jaydon Blue In Fifth Round
Jordan Watkins

49ers Add Jordan Watkins To Offense
Shedeur Sanders

Browns Trade Up To Select Shedeur Sanders In The Fifth Round
Sam Howell

Seahawks Trade Sam Howell To Vikings
Elic Ayomanor

Titans Continue To Address Offense, Select Elic Ayomanor
Jalen Royals

Chiefs Bolster Receiver Room With Jalen Royals
Jaylin Lane

Commanders Add Jaylin Lane To Wide Receiver Room
Dylan Sampson

Browns Select Dylan Sampson With 126th Pick
Gunnar Helm

Titans Use Fourth-Round Pick On Gunnar Helm
Jarquez Hunter

Rams Select Jarquez Hunter In Fourth Round
Darius Garland

Won't Suit Up For Game 3
Darius Garland

Unavailable For Pregame Warmup
Jrue Holiday

Classified As "Day-To-Day"
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF