Fantasy Baseball ADP Reflections - Shortstop

Jamie Steed analyzes the early ADP of shortstops to determine if they are undervalued or overvalued in 2020 fantasy baseball drafts.

With shortstop being arguably the most loaded fantasy position in 2020 and the strongest it has been for years, finding value at the position could be the difference in helping you win your league. With so many shortstops going early in drafts, picking one who ultimately disappoints will set you back considerably more than it would at other positions.

The flip side of this, of course, is if you can hit it big on a shortstop going later in drafts who ultimately exceed expectations, you’ll be taking a big step towards winning your league. The margin for error is more the deeper you go into your draft. Any shortstop taken in the first 50 picks (of which there are currently ten such shortstops in NFBC drafts), you will need to be a top-50 player to stand any chance of succeeding.

To help you decide on draft day as to whether you get one, two or none of the top shortstops, here we will take a look at shortstops being overvalued in drafts and undervalued ones who could provide that draft value everyone is seeking.

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Overvalued - Alex Bregman

It may seem churlish to pick someone who narrowly missed out on the AL MVP last year and this choice isn’t based on any of the Astros cheating scandal outcome. With an ADP of 13.93 in NFBC drafts (based on 790 drafts), Bregman still only finds himself as the fourth highest-drafted shortstop, although he does have dual position eligibility at third base too.

While I certainly don’t believe Bregman will be a bust at all, he’ll have to at least repeat last years’ numbers to justify being a top-14 pick. Looking at our very own Rotoballer Projections, that won’t be happening. The one slight on Bregman is a lack of stolen bases, which have been in decline in the last three years (17 in 2017, 10 in 2018 and 5 in 2019). The three shortstops going before Bregman (Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story and Trea Turner) are projected for more than 20 steals (more than 40 in Turner’s case) while still contributing heavily in the other four main fantasy categories. But it’s the next two shortstops after Bregman in drafts which offer more insight as to why Bregman can be considered overvalued.

Fernando Tatis Jr. and Gleyber Torres are the fifth and sixth drafted shortstops (respectively) on NFBC and below we can compare the three players’ projections for 2020.

In leagues which include OBP, Bregman has a clear advantage. In standard scoring leagues, however, Tatis is projected for 20 more stolen bases but 20 fewer RBI. Given the dearth of stolen bases in today’s game, 20 steals are much more valuable than 20 RBI in fantasy. Torres going 16 picks later is a closer comparison to Bregman even with a .018 difference in their respective batting averages.

The projections for Bregman may seem a little light in the home run department seeing as he hit 41 last year, but if we use Statcast to compare his actual stats with expected stats, we can see why his 2020 projections expect a slight downturn in his numbers. The below table shows Bregman’s statistics for batting average, slugging percentage and weighted on-base average as well as his expected numbers (where the expected stats are prefixed with an x).

Statcast also has Bregman ranking mediocrely in average exit velocity for 2019. Among 250 qualified hitters, Bregman ranked tied-107^th with an average exit velocity of 89.3 MPH. Two of those Bregman was tied with were Niko Goodrum and Logan Forsyth so not exactly esteemed power hitters.

All in all, Bregman will most likely have an excellent season (still assuming there is a 2020 season) but without a repeat of his 2019, won’t be able to provide draft value at his current ADP like the other top shortstop options being drafted early. The lack of steals doesn’t offer us the floor that most of the other top shortstops provide either.

Overvalued Honorable Mention – Tim Anderson

Injury prevented Anderson from recording a second straight 20/20 season but it was his .335 batting average which really made people take notice of Anderson last year. His average can be attributed to his .399 BABIP, so expecting a repeat would be foolish.

With a career 3.3% BB% too, Anderson will continue to limit his chances of getting more steals and whilst the lineup around him looks better than it has throughout his 4-year career, he’ll still need 20 homers and 20 steals to come close to justifying his current ADP ~96.

Undervalued – Dansby Swanson

The former no.1 overall draft pick, Swanson has started to look like a big leaguer throughout the last two seasons and if we scratch beneath the surface of last year we can optimistically expect another step forward in Swanson’s development in 2020.

When we looked at Bregman’s 2019 and saw his expected statistics were lower than his actual numbers it told us that Bregman could anticipate his numbers to come back a bit this year. The opposite can be said about Swanson as the below table comparing his 2019 actual statistics with his expected numbers tells a story of probable growth this year.

It’s that xWOBA which can offer us the most optimism. If you aren’t sure what weighted on-base average (WOBA) means or measures in simple terms it combines all the different aspects of hitting and scales the values of the outcomes rather than a linear way (i.e. a double isn’t twice as good as a single). The formula also varies to take into effect the value of runs each season.

Swanson’s xWOBA of .347 ranked him tied-74^th among the 250 qualified hitters on Statcast last season and was higher than Nolan Arenado (.344), Gleyber Torres (.341) and Trevor Story (.339). Despite failing to hit 20 homers in a season so far, that should change going forward and Swanson should have no problem beating last season’s career-high of 17 home runs in future seasons.

Swanson’s Statcast profile (below) saw him come out above average in key hitting categories and highlighted excellent sprint speed which may come as a surprise. While sprint speed doesn’t necessarily translate into steals directly, it does hint to the possibility of more stolen bases if he gets afforded a green light on the bases more often.

Swanson is currently projected for 24 homers, 11 stolen bases, 81 RBI, 83 runs and with a .262/.327/.482 slash line. Whilst nothing stands out, he is a well-rounded addition to fantasy rosters, contributing in all five categories. With a current ADP ~246 on NFBC (based on 790 drafts), the other shortstops being drafted in the 150-250 ADP range all have a shortcoming or two among the scoring categories whereas Swanson can be drafted safely in the knowledge he won’t harm you in any. He’s managed to establish a solid enough floor over the last two years and still only 26 years old, last year’s numbers also suggest there is a higher ceiling we’ve yet to see.

Undervalued Honorable Mention – Johan Camargo

Swanson’s teammate appeared to have beaten out Austin Riley to be the Atlanta Braves’ third baseman before spring training was ended early and with a current ADP ~612, he’s effectively free in drafts. Camargo showed us what he can do in 2018 as a near everyday player for the Braves, with 19 homers and a .272/.349/.457 slash line over 134 games.

In an offense likely to score more runs than most, Camargo should still be able to score and drive in runs hitting in the bottom half of the lineup. He’ll also have dual position eligibility early in the season (if not already with it) which can be a key feature for players taken later in drafts.

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