Running Back Fallers for Fantasy Football - ADP Analysis for Michael Carter, Brian Robinson Jr., Ronald Jones

I am going to start this column by introducing the concept of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you are already familiar with. Just in case you're not, Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is going off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against.

In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from mid-May to mid-June using data from FFPC drafts. Today, it's time to look at three running back fallers.

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Fantasy Football Running Backs - ADP Fallers

Michael Carter, New York Jets

I've been saying this since the minute the 2022 draft was over: I love the real-life Jets and what they built through free agency and the draft, but I hate the fantasy-world Jets because they're so loaded without any player clearly above the rest that this might be a true mess of a gamble for fantasy GMs to fish in. Just hours before I'm writing this blurb, Connor Hughes from The Athletic is reporting that New York is thinking about handing rookie Breece Hall the reins of the backfield, turning him into the "Batman to Michael Carter's Robin". Uh oh.

Carter, if you remember, is just entering his second season in the NFL after getting drafted by the Jets a year ago with a fourth-round pick. He rushed the rock 147 times for 639 yards and four rushing TDs last year while adding 325 yards and four more touchdowns on 36 receptions. He basically did it all, ranked as the 29th-best RB... and all of that for nothing as he has seemingly lost his RB1 role to a rook. The two-round drop in ADP is massive and one hard to predict just a couple of months ago.

Alas, PFF has already adjusted the projections and has Hall at 206 opportunities compared to Carter's 142. They are boasting projected finishes of RB32 and RB41, respectively. Michael Carter's ADP is still too high to return any value at his current price, and I don't even have to mention how much of an overspent would be drafting Breece Hall at his ADP of 36 overall. Fade the Jets backfield if you want to avoid getting an autumn-long headache.

Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders

Even though Robinson's ADP chart looks rather steady, the truth is that his ADP has dropped more than two full rounds in 12-team leagues in the past month. It makes sense considering the latest developments around Washington regarding the Commanders' backfield entering the 2022 season. Head Coach Ron Rivera sees Robinson and Antonio Gibson as a 1A/1B type of partnership. That is, of course, not to mention the presence of a third man in the backfield with J.D. McKissic also expected to be a solid part of it because of his pass-catching skills. We're probably looking at a mid-level RB2 ceiling for any and every one of these three rushers next season--even in a best-case scenario.

More worryingly, though, are Rivera's comments at the end of May when he pretty much confirmed our thoughts: the Commies plan to deploy a running back by committee in 2022. Ugh. Rivera said that he will try to emulate some of the past Panthers' backfields he used years ago as those made for a good "two-back system." He added that he'll go with "who's hot, who's rolling, who's doing the good things." Nightmare fantasy scenario, folks.

The touches and opportunities will go down for everybody, the week-to-week volatility and variance will be huge, and Robinson's ADP tank is easily explainable because of all of this. Fantasy GMs got this right, and you should be fading the hell out of Robinson too. Keep an eye on him as a Waiver Wire potential add, but that's it. If you want to gamble, put your money on McKissic and his specialized pass-play chops/role.

Ronald Jones II, Kansas City Chiefs

After spending four seasons in Tampa, Ronald Jones moved up north to play for the Kansas City Chiefs. Or should I say "play?" I mean, it's not that RoJo had a lot of chances while with the Bucs, but he got two RB1 seasons sandwiched between his rookie and last year in which he got 212 and 234 opportunities, respectively, and got to finish RB25 and RB20. The arrival of Leonard Fournette didn't impact his dominance in 2020, but the usage of the two was flipped on its head last season and Jones could do nothing to salvage his season. That might be very similar to the future he faces in KC, as Clyde Edwards-Helaire is locked into the RB1 role, and--although he's underperformed a bit given the huge expectations--that shouldn't change anytime soon.

Thus, the ADP drop as fantasy GMs come to grips with the situation and start looking at Fantasy-Jones as a lost cause. Jones' ADP has taken more than a full round in 12-team drafts sitting at the 130th pick overall these days. Even with such a low price attached to his name, PFF still sees Jones as a top-50 RB as best and an overpaid fantasy asset if drafted at that position. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, with an ADP of 66th overall, is also projected to return a negative ROI but at least his 186.2 projected-PPR points would be enough to make him the RB23 of the 2022 season. Unless CEH goes on to miss ample time (he already did last year) or Jones ADP keeps cratering further down the board, you shouldn't worry about missing on drafting Ronald Jones.

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