ADP Champ or Chump: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Brandon Pfaadt, and Will Smith

As we approach peak fantasy baseball draft season, it's crunch time. You might think you know each player's value, but double-checking never hurts.

We're back with three names of interest on draft day: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Brandon Pfaadt, and Will Smith. Chisholm was the cover athlete for MLB The Show 2023, Pfaadt looked like a stud in the postseason, and Smith is the catcher for one of MLB's best clubs. Surely they're all good bets, right?

Wrong! Let's find out why.

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Jazz Chisholm Jr. (OF, MIA) ADP: 65.87

Chisholm had a typical Chisholm year in 2023, smacking 19 home runs and stealing 22 bags with a disappointing triple-slash line of .250/.304/.457. Injuries also limited him to 383 PAs. He would be a tremendous fantasy asset if he figured out how to hit, but there's no reason to think he will in 2024.

The 26-year-old has a terrible plate approach that's only getting worse. Last season, Chisholm posted a 30.8 K% against a 6.8 BB%. His 15.2 SwStr%, 74.4 Z-Contact%, and K% were all career worsts, giving pitchers plenty of holes to exploit.

The strikeouts are a strong downward force on Chisholm's batting average. Per Baseball Savant, Chisholm deserved a batting average of just .224 last year. His 23.5% HR/FB was also fortunate if his .431 xSLG is more indicative of his true talent than his actual mark.

However, role is the biggest reason to avoid Chisholm on draft day. Per Roster Resource, the Marlins are expected to platoon Chisholm. He'll hit fourth against RHP but start the game on the bench against southpaws.

At an ADP of 65.87, an everyday role should be cemented. Oneil Cruz is more affordable at 71.75, offers the same power/speed upside Chisholm does, and will play health permitting. Or, you could select Max Fried at a 63.38 ADP and roster a big arm on a great team. Anybody in a platoon is a Chump at Chisholm's price point.

Brandon Pfaadt (SP, ARI) ADP: 211.08

Fantasy managers were eager to see what Pfaadt could do at the MLB level. Sadly, he didn't live up to the hype with a 5.72 ERA and 22.3 K% over 96 IP. His 4.46 xFIP was better, but the 25-year-old is still a fantasy afterthought at most.

That's a mistake. Pfaadt boasts an impressive prospect pedigree, peaking as the 19th overall prospect per FanGraphs and 51st per MLB Pipeline. Furthermore, we got a glimpse of what he's capable of when he struck out 26 batters in 22 postseason IP with a 3.27 ERA.

That's a small sample, but so is Pfaadt's MLB work. If we look at his MiLB performance, Pfaadt was dominant. He posted a K-BB% of 20.4 at Double-A in 2021 (33 1/3 IP), 28% at Double-A in 2022 (105 1/3 IP), 24.8 at Triple-A in 2022 (61 2/3 IP), and 20.8 at Triple-A in 2023 (60 2/3 IP). K-BB% is one of the best stats for evaluating pitchers, and anything above 20 is excellent. Pfaadt meets the threshold at all four stops.

Pfaadt's arsenal offers reason for optimism as well:

His slider stands out as a put-away pitch that can also be used for a called strike, and the change's 15.4 SwStr% suggests it could turn into a weapon if Pfaadt can get more hitters to chase it.

Pfaadt's sinker is also better for whiffs than most sinkers, besting his fastball by SwStr% with an excellent chase rate. His heater is the least impressive pitch above, and even it posted an impressive Zone%. There's plenty to work with here.

Pfaadt has a favorable team context too. ZiPS projects Arizona as the second wild card, and the team finished with the second-highest total of Outs Above Average (35) last season. Pfaadt personally received -1 OAA of defensive support last year, so better defense should translate to fewer baserunners in 2024.

Postseason heroes typically end up with inflated price tags, but Pfaadt's upside is a bargain at his ADP. He's a Champ worth pursuing in all formats.

Will Smith (C, LAD) ADP: 80.50

Smith disappointed fantasy managers somewhat in 2023, slashing .261/.359/.438 with 19 HR in 554 PAs. That performance shouldn't have surprised anyone, however.

If we exclude the shortened 2020 pandemic season, Smith's seasonal batting averages range from .253 to .261. That gives fantasy managers predictability, but it also means we can expect an average that neither hurts nor helps. Smith gets a value boost in OBP formats with his 10.9 career BB%, but managers in 5x5 formats don't care that much.

Smith has previously produced plus power, hitting 25 HR in 2021 and 24 in 2022. Unfortunately, last year's output is supported by mediocre contact quality metrics like a 92.6 mph average airborne exit velocity and a 6.7% rate of Brls/BBE. Here are a few more:

Smith doesn't strike out often (16.1 K%, 7.8 SwStr%), but his contact quality is average at best. His Statcast Sprint Speed ranks in the 44th percentile, so he isn't legging out many hits either. The result is a .260 hitter with about 20 homers a year.

A .260 hitter with 20 HR isn't worth a top-100 draft pick, but two flawed lines of thinking inflate Smith's value. Catchers have historically been fantasy headaches, but this year is stronger. If you play in a 12-team league with one catcher slot, our rankings say the worst one rostered is Logan O'Hoppe. If you don't like any of our picks, you can find upside in later guys like Mitch Garver and Bo Naylor.

If you have two catcher slots, 2023 NL All-Star Elias Diaz ranks 25th and is far from unrosterable. There's no reason to take Will Smith early because he's a catcher.

Second, Smith gets a value boost because he plays for the Dodgers. The Dodgers have a great lineup, but it's extremely top-heavy. Smith is expected to bat fourth, behind the triumvirate of Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman. It should produce a lot of RBI opportunities.

However, the hitters after Smith include Max Muncy, James Outman, Teoscar Hernandez, Jason Heyward, and Gavin Lux. The group is nothing special and will likely hold Smith's runs total in check. Hitting cleanup isn't worth the premium Smith is commanding.

By ADP, Smith is sandwiched between Bobby Miller's limitless upside at 79.40 and Kyle Schwarber's bankable, elite power numbers at 81.50. Smith is a Chump when guys like that are on the board.

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