X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

ADP Arbitrage - Redraft Mid-Round Value Picks

Every year there are players at each position who fly under the radar during the offseason, only to outperform players who were drafted much higher. The individuals who can identify players with low ADP that have the potential to perform at a similar or higher level to the more highly-touted players oftentimes are the same individuals who have a good chance to win their league.

Although it can be difficult to pinpoint the exact players who will outperform their pre-season ADP, there is a method of simplification. By comparing players with late-round ADP to players who are going in the first two rounds of the draft, it is possible to find high value players in the middle and late rounds of the draft.

Using the ADP from Fantasyfootballcalculator.com, I have identified five mid-to-late round players in a re-draft setting who can provide more value than their counterparts.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Mid-Round Assets for Re-draft

Comparison 1: Bilal Powell (7.01) and Jordan Howard (2.02)

The first player that I think is a great value pick is New York Jets running back Bilal Powell. All early indications suggest that Powell is likely to take over the starting job from the aging Matt Forte, and with the recent moves made by the Jets, it would not be too surprising to see Forte get released later in the offseason. Powell has shown promise when given opportunity, averaging 4.5 YPC in 2015 and 5.5 YPC in 2016. Pair his production and fresh legs with the second-easiest schedule versus opponent rush defense and he could be in line for a breakout fantasy season. Look for Powell to be a bright spot for the lowly Jets this season, similar to Jordan Howard in Chicago last season.

Comparison 2: Eric Decker (10.03) and Dez Bryant (2.07)

Newly acquired Tennessee Titans wide receiver Eric Decker is another player that has the potential to produce comparable numbers to a more highly-regarded wide receiver, Dallas Cowboys' Dez Bryant. The Titans seem to be a perfect destination for the veteran wideout due to both the positional need and the talent at the quarterback position. Look for quarterback Marcus Mariota, who excels in the redzone, to look for the sure-handed Decker often when the team is within striking distance. Decker has been a touchdown machine over the last five NFL seasons with 51 receiving touchdowns, trailing only Rob Gronkowski (55) and Dez Bryant (53) for the NFL lead.  Over that stretch, Bryant only has 156 more yards than Decker. Both Decker and Bryant had to deal with injuries last season, but with both now healthy, look for the trend of similar performance to continue.

Comparison 3: Martellus Bennett (7.06) and Rob Gronkowksi (2.09)

Watch for another player in a new home, tight end Martellus Bennett of the Green Bay Packers, to also be a great value pick in the mid-to-late rounds of the draft. Bennett thrived in the New England Patriots offense a season ago, totaling 701 yards and seven touchdowns and exceeding the performance of the injury-plagued Rob Gronkowski. Pairing Bennett with quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the NFL's leading scoring pass offense should maintain his production from a season ago, allowing him to offer comparable value to the unanimous TE1, Gronkowski. Should Gronkowski be able to put together a full season, it is unlikely that Bennett will match his production; however, Gronk has only averaged playing in around 11 games per year since 2011. Bennett has played four full seasons in the last five years, and his durability and perfect situation in Green Bay suggest that he will provide great value for a tight end drafted in the seventh or eighth round.

Comparison 4: Samaje Perine (8.05) and Leonard Fournette (2.06)

Last season, rookie running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Jordan Howard busted onto the scene and finished the season as the RB2 and RB9 respectively. This season, most of the attention is being garnered by running backs Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffery, and Joe Mixon; however, keep an eye out for Washington Redskins rookie running back Samaje Perine. Perine is not a sexy choice like the players listed above, but he does have the skill and opportunity to make a similar impact. He has the best-graded offensive line of the four players mentioned, has little competition for touches, and is in a very fantasy-friendly offense. Reports from the Redskins camp reveal that Coach Jay Gruden has been very impressed by the rookie's work ethic and ability. Should he take over most of the early-down carries from Rob Kelley, expect Perine to produce comparable numbers to his more hyped rookie counterparts at an extremely discounted price.

Comparison 5: Marcus Mariota (9.07) and Aaron Rodgers (2.10)

This comparison is not necessarily a prediction that Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota will outscore, or even match, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. This is, however, an analysis of the value gained at each pick. In order for an early quarterback selection to pay off it is vital that the player chosen consistently outperforms mid-to-late round options at the position. With the added receiving threats, strong offensive line, and top five run game the Titans offense figures to be a fantasy gold mind. Mariota has all of the support and talent to be a consistent, high-scoring quarterback this season. His running ability and near-perfect redzone performance boost his value, making him a very solid option to be your QB1. With this in mind, it would be more beneficial to wait on your quarterback selection until rounds eight or nine and use that early round pick on a second-tier running back or wide receiver.

 

More 2017 Fantasy Football Analysis


Check out RotoBaller's famous fantasy football draft sleepers and waiver wire pickups list, updated regularly!


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jimmy Butler III18 mins ago

Returns To Action Monday
Kelly Oubre Jr.23 mins ago

Ruled Out Monday
Miles Bridges24 mins ago

Available Against Warriors
KaVontae Turpin27 mins ago

To Receive Second-Round Tender
Jaime Jaquez Jr.33 mins ago

Ruled Out Monday
Davion Mitchell38 mins ago

Unavailable Against Wizards
Jimmy Garoppolo39 mins ago

Rams Want Jimmy Garoppolo Back
Kel'el Ware44 mins ago

Will Not Play On Monday
Tyler Higbee44 mins ago

Rob Havenstein To Return In 2025
Jordan Clarkson45 mins ago

Out For Monday's Matchup With Detroit
Andrew Wiggins48 mins ago

Misses Third Straight Game
Cooper Kupp51 mins ago

Rams Not Completely Shutting The Door On Cooper Kupp
Gabriel Landeskog57 mins ago

Not Expected To Return During The Regular Season
Matthew Stafford1 hour ago

Rams Stay On Year-To-Year Terms With Matthew Stafford
Tee Higgins1 hour ago

Bengals Officially Place Franchise Tag On Tee Higgins
Isaiah Joe1 hour ago

Sidelined For Monday's Game
Spencer Knight1 hour ago

Makes Blackhawks Debut Monday
Justin Lawrence1 hour ago

Claimed Off Waivers By Pirates
Nick Foligno1 hour ago

Out On Monday
Alexis Díaz1 hour ago

Alexis Diaz Working His Way Back From Tweaked Hamstring
Macklin Celebrini1 hour ago

Available Against Maple Leafs
Wyatt Langford2 hours ago

Almost Ready To Return To Spring Games
Jon Gray2 hours ago

Adds Velocity In Second Spring Start
Fred VanVleet2 hours ago

Unavailable Versus Thunder
Calle Jarnkrok2 hours ago

Ready For Season Debut
Jacob deGrom2 hours ago

To Start In Back End Of The Rotation
Jake Sanderson2 hours ago

Good To Go Monday
Luis Gil2 hours ago

Won't Throw For Six Weeks With High-Grade Lat Strain
Matthew Tkachuk2 hours ago

To Miss Remainder Of Regular Season
Malcolm Brogdon2 hours ago

Sidelined On Monday
Jerami Grant2 hours ago

Ruled Out On Monday
Ernie Clement3 hours ago

Exits After Being Hit By Pitch
Wilyer Abreu3 hours ago

Swinging A Bat, Still Questionable For Opening Day
Sebastian Walcott3 hours ago

Assigned To Minor-League Camp
Austin Slater4 hours ago

Has Left Oblique Strain
Pete Crow-Armstrong4 hours ago

Scratched From Monday's Lineup
Brandon Nimmo4 hours ago

Has Soreness In Right Knee
Corbin Carroll4 hours ago

Considered Day-To-Day
Jose Quintana4 hours ago

Agrees To One-Year Deal With Brewers
Luis Rengifo4 hours ago

Scratched With Hamstring Tightness
Taylor Ward4 hours ago

Day-To-Day With Knee Soreness
Parker Meadows5 hours ago

No Timetable For Parker Meadows' Return
Jahmai Jones5 hours ago

Could Be Dark-Horse Candidate For Opening Day Spot
Trey Sweeney5 hours ago

Not A Lock To Start At Shortstop
Isaac Paredes5 hours ago

Could Hit Second In The Lineup
Philadelphia Eagles6 hours ago

Eagles Release Darius Slay
Jose Altuve6 hours ago

To Spend Most Of His Time In Left Field
MMA7 hours ago

Asu Almbayev Gets TKO'd At UFC Vegas 103
Manel Kape7 hours ago

Gets TKO Win At UFC Vegas 103
Tari Eason7 hours ago

Listed As Questionable Against Thunder
Dillon Brooks7 hours ago

Questionable With Knee Injury On Monday
Alperen Sengün7 hours ago

Alperen Sengun Tagged As Questionable On Monday
Julian Marquez7 hours ago

Loses Fourth Fight In A Row
Kyle Busch7 hours ago

Falls Short Of Victory At COTA While Finishing Fifth
Amen Thompson7 hours ago

Considered Questionable Against Thunder
Guerschon Yabusele7 hours ago

Available Against Trail Blazers On Monday
Kyle Larson7 hours ago

Has A Day To Forget At COTA On Sunday
Cody Brundage8 hours ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Tyler Reddick8 hours ago

Continues His Top-10 Streak At COTA With Third-Place Finish
NASCAR8 hours ago

Bubba Wallace Has An Eventful Day At COTA That Ends In 20th-Place Finish
Esteban Ribovics8 hours ago

Drops Decision At UFC Vegas 103
Paul George8 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable On Monday
Noah Gragson8 hours ago

Scores His First Career Road Course Top-10 Finish At COTA
Nasrat Haqparast8 hours ago

Extends Win Streak At UFC Vegas 103
Quinten Post8 hours ago

Likely To Play On Monday
William Gomis9 hours ago

Takes Split-Decision Loss
Jonathan Kuminga9 hours ago

Remains Sidelined Monday Against Hornets
Hyder Amil9 hours ago

Remains Undefeated
Sam Patterson9 hours ago

Extends Win Streak To Three
Danny Barlow9 hours ago

Suffers First Career Loss At UFC Vegas 103
Filip Gustavsson9 hours ago

Shuts Out Bruins With 28 Saves
Roope Hintz10 hours ago

Records Second Consecutive Four-Point Game
Wyatt Johnston10 hours ago

Nets Hat Trick Against Blues
Adin Hill10 hours ago

Stops Devils From Scoring
Auston Matthews10 hours ago

Extends Point Streak To Nine Games
Sidney Crosby10 hours ago

Bags Three Points In Sunday's Loss
Jack Hughes10 hours ago

Exits With Injury Sunday
Christopher Bell11 hours ago

Wins At COTA, Ready To Keep Adding To It
Chris Buescher11 hours ago

Finishes Seventh At COTA, Sees Room For Improvement
Todd Gilliland11 hours ago

Nabs First Top-10 Finish Of Season After Bumpy COTA Race
Chase Elliott16 hours ago

Recovers From Lap 1 Spinout To Finish Fourth
William Byron16 hours ago

In Battle Between Last Two Race Winners, William Byron Comes Up Short
Shane Van Gisbergen16 hours ago

Shane van Gisbergen Dominates First Two Stages But Fades In Third Stage
AJ Allmendinger16 hours ago

A.J. Allmendinger Runs Well At Austin Until Late-Race Collapse
Alex Bowman16 hours ago

Recovers From COTA Penalty To Finish Ninth
Tyler Conklin22 hours ago

Not Expected To Return
New York Jets22 hours ago

Sauce Gardner Expected To Reset The Cornerback Market
New York Jets22 hours ago

Jets More Likely To Go After A Second-Tier Veteran QB
Davante Adams22 hours ago

Jets Taking Calls On Davante Adams
Kevin Durant22 hours ago

Suns Could Work Together On A Trade This Offseason
Jacob Markstrom1 day ago

Activated From Injured Reserve Sunday
Jonas Brodin1 day ago

Deemed Week-To-Week
Matthew Tkachuk1 day ago

Placed On Long-Term Injured Reserve
Justus Annunen1 day ago

Starts Against Rangers
Jonathan Quick1 day ago

Starts For Rangers Sunday
Reilly Smith1 day ago

Sits Out Sunday's Action
Carolina Panthers1 day ago

Panthers Expected To Be Aggressive While Searching For Defensive Upgrades
Atlanta Falcons1 day ago

Falcons Interested In Trading No. 15 Pick In The Draft
Cleveland Browns1 day ago

Browns Continue To Insist They Won't Trade Myles Garrett
Daniel Jones1 day ago

Other QBs on Colts Radar
Russell Wilson1 day ago

Steelers Prefer Justin Fields Over Russell Wilson?
Daniel Jones1 day ago

Expected To Be On Browns Radar
Sam Darnold1 day ago

Vikings Won't Mortgage The Future To Keep Sam Darnold
Ja'Marr Chase1 day ago

Bengals, Ja'Marr Chase Remain Far Apart In Extension Talks
New York Giants1 day ago

Giants Could Be Willing To Trade Up To No. 1 Overall
Philadelphia Eagles1 day ago

Eagles Have Real Interest In Myles Garrett
Tyler Reddick1 day ago

Wins Pole At COTA, Looking To Become First Repeat Winner
Chase Elliott1 day ago

Will Be A Top Threat For The Win At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen1 day ago

Shane van Gisbergen the Favorite to Win at COTA
Kyle Larson1 day ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell1 day ago

Will Be A Fantastic DFS Play For COTA Lineups
AJ Allmendinger1 day ago

Struggling At COTA Despite Strong Practice Speeds
Austin Cindric1 day ago

Is One Of The Top DFS Recommendations For COTA Lineups
Connor Zilisch1 day ago

Making Cup Series Debut This Weekend
Ryan Donato1 day ago

Extends Point Streak To Four Games
MMA3 days ago

Asu Almbayev Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Manel Kape3 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Julian Marquez3 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Cody Brundage3 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Esteban Ribovics3 days ago

Looks For His Fourth UFC Win
Nasrat Haqparast3 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 103
William Gomis3 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 103
Hyder Amil3 days ago

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Sam Patterson3 days ago

Opens Up UFC Vegas 103 Main Card
Danny Barlow3 days ago

Looks To Extend Win Streak
Emiliano Grillo5 days ago

Out Of Form Ahead Of Cognizant Classic
Sam Ryder5 days ago

A Course Horse For PGA National
Matt Kuchar5 days ago

An Intriguing Option At Cognizant Classic
Cameron Young5 days ago

A High-Risk, High-Reward Play At PGA National
Taylor Pendrith5 days ago

Is An Enticing Play At Cognizant Classic
Gary Woodland5 days ago

Aiming For Bounce-Back Performance At PGA National
PGA5 days ago

Kris Ventura A Value Pick At The Cognizant Classic
PGA5 days ago

Niklas Norgaard Making Third PGA Tour Start At Cognizant Classic
Erik Van Rooyen5 days ago

Looking For Sustained Success At PGA National
Jordan Spieth6 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back In Cognizant Classic Debut
Seamus Power6 days ago

A Risky Play With Upside At PGA National
Andrew Novak6 days ago

Searching For Consistency At PGA National
Denny McCarthy6 days ago

Eyeing First Career Victory At PGA National
Min Woo Lee6 days ago

Aims To Keep The Momentum Going At PGA National
Chris Kirk6 days ago

A Wild Card At PGA National
Mark Hubbard6 days ago

Trending In The Wrong Direction Ahead Of Cognizant Classic
Alex Smalley6 days ago

Continues To Impress Ahead Of The Cognizant Classic
Taylor Moore6 days ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To Cognizant Classic
Justin Lower6 days ago

Misses Cut At Mexico Open
Max Greyserman6 days ago

Hitting Stride Heading To Cognizant Classic
Jake Knapp6 days ago

Posts Solid Finish At Mexico Open
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF