Catchers who may be overvalued busts or undervalued sleepers for 2018 fantasy baseball drafts. Elliott Baas looks at some C targets and avoids.

Catcher is generally considered the weakest position in fantasy baseball. That is exactly why getting reliable production from the position is so important. There won’t be many good options on the waiver wire to replace a bad pick.

This article looks at some catchers that are undervalued and overvalued based on their NFBC ADP (as of 2/13/18) and offers an idea of who to target in drafts.

To see what our experts think, check out our own mixed league rankings for catchers.

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Undervalued Catchers

Evan Gattis, Houston Astros – 155^th Overall, Seventh Catcher

With Gattis set to be Houston’s primary DH in 2018, it’s surprising to see him going as low as the seventh catcher off the board. While Gattis only hit 12 home runs in 84 games last year, he hit over 20 between 2013-16 when playing over 100 games, including a career high 32 in 2016.  His career .228 ISO puts him far above other slugging backstops like Welington Castillo (.169), Salvador Perez (.170), and Mike Zunino (.196). Only Gary Sanchez rivals Gattis’ power among catchers, and Gattis represents one of the few 30 home runs threats from the position. Without the wear and tear of regular catching duties, Gattis can be one of the top fantasy catchers, making him a great value as the number seven catcher. When everything clicks right for Gattis, he’s got the potential to be a top-five player at the position and provide outstanding power production.

Brian McCann, Houston Astros – 216^th Overall, 13^th Catcher

Another Brave turned Astro, McCann has been a reliable fantasy catcher for over a decade. He has hit 18 or more home runs every year since 2006. This consistency makes McCann a safe option for those who chose to wait on their starting catcher. There are less question marks surrounding him than catchers going ahead of him like Mike Zunino (163^rd), Jonathan Lucroy (181^st), and Austin Barnes (186^th). With McCann fantasy owners know that they are going to get solid production, a trait that is especially valuable at a position where the waiver wire tends to be barren. The biggest concern about McCann is health, which is valid considering he had two stints on the disabled list in 2017. Roster resource projects the Astros to carry three catchers in 2018 (McCann, Gattis, and Max Stassi) so McCann could get a little extra rest to stay fresh or potentially see more time at DH since the Astros lineup is less crowded going into 2018. McCann is a relatively safe, consistent option at catcher going after pick 200.

Alex Avila, Arizona Diamondbacks – 394^th Overall, 32^nd Catcher

With Aliva recently inking a deal to Arizona his ADP will likely rise, but as of now he is over one hundred picks away from being a top twenty catcher. At his current price Avila would be undrafted in 12 or 15 team leagues. While his 2017 .382 BABIP will certainly drop in 2018, he also showed some encouraging signs last year. His .183 ISO and .362 wOBA were the second highest of his career. He also tore the cover off the ball with a 48.7% hard contact rate, higher than Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo. Even if Detroit’s Statcast readings are questionable, he still had a hard contact rate over 40% after being traded to the Cubs. Avila is now headed to Chase Field, where Chris Iannetta put up his first productive season in nearly a decade. Avila is still a flawed player, with a career 28.1% strikeout rate and 71.5% contact rate, but at his current price he makes for a great deep league or two catcher league option late in drafts.

Overvalued Catchers

Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals – 149^th Overall, Sixth Catcher

Yadier Molina hit 18 home runs in 2017. Yadier Molina hit 19 home runs between 2014-16. Yadier Molina stole nine bases in 2017. Yadier Molina stole seven bases between 14-16. It is hard to believe that a 35 year-old catcher made such a drastic turnaround after three years of anemic power and empty batting average.  His 36.4% hard contact and 37.4% flyball rates in 2017 are both above his career averages, but he also had an 11% HR/FB ratio, which is high for Molina. 2017 was only the second time Molina ever had a HR/FB ratio over 10%. He also posted a career low 82.5% contact rate, and while that is still above average, is markedly lower than his career 86.6% contact rate. Molina should be a fine fantasy option, but to buy him at this price is to buy an improbable season and hope for a repeat.

Jonathan Lucroy, Free Agent – 181^st Overall, 11^th Catcher

You know that whole flyball revolution thing? The one that allowed for record power numbers across the league? Well, Jonathan Lucroy never got the memo. He posted a career-low 27.9% flyball rate, a career-high 53.5% groundball and a dismal 22.3% hard contact rate. That’s the kind of batted ball profile one would expect from Dee Gordon, not an All-Star catcher. Considering he was a top tier catcher going into 2017, there is a steep discount baked into his price, but such an extreme and unforeseeable shift in his approach left us no signs of a turnaround. He is being drafted as a starting catcher based on reputation and faith, but two of his last three seasons have been huge letdowns for fantasy owners. Catcher is not the position to get hamstrung at because it is hard to find quality options on the waiver wire or through trade. Couple these concerns with the fact that Lucroy not only cannot find a team, but his market has been ice cold. He’s not guaranteed an every day role, nor is he guaranteed to produce should he find one.

Christian Vazquez, Boston Red Sox – 287^th Overall, 18^th Catcher

It’s hard to call anyone being drafted at 287^th overvalued, but Vazquez is contextually overvalued as a number two catcher. As far as late-game two-catcher league options go, Vazquez is a rather mediocre choice. He is a glove-first catcher that managed to post a .348 BABIP in 2017 leading to a .290 batting average. He still had just a .114 ISO and 26.4% hard contact rate in 2017, which do not suggest any power is lurking in his bat. Vazquez was largely empty batting average in 2017, and while batting eighth or ninth he won’t be able to put up counting stats that make him worth using. Since power is at an all time high across the league, power-hitting number two catchers like Austin Hedges (270^th) or Chris Iannetta (289^th) will allow owners to keep pace and provide more counting stats than someone like Vazquez.

More 2018 MLB Rankings and ADP Analysis