X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

A Year to Forget: Fantasy Baseball Pitchers Who Will Rebound in 2024

Dylan-Cease-daily-fantasy-baseball-rankings-outfield-draft-targets-MLB-DFS-lineup-picks-icon (2)

Jarod Rupp breaks down some fantasy baseball pitchers who had uncharacteristically poor seasons in 2023 that will have a reversal of fortunes in 2024.

Fantasy baseball managers drafted these pitchers in 2023 expecting them to deliver results, however, they underperformed expectations relative to their ADP.

Due to their underwhelming seasons, scorned managers will cast them aside, avoiding them in drafts. As a result, they will see a discount in ADP going into 2024, but with bounce-back campaigns in order, they should produce positive ROI for managers willing to roster them.

Also, keep an eye out for our "Hitters Who Will Rebound in 2024" article, or check out "3 Fantasy Baseball Pitchers Who Broke Out in 2023."

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Starting Pitchers Who Will Bounce Back in 2024

Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox

Back in 2023, Dylan Cease was the fifth pitcher coming off fantasy draft boards, ahead of names like Spencer Strider, Max Scherzer, Zack Wheeler, and Zac Gallen. This of course was due to his sparkling 2022 season in which he posted a 2.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 227 K in 184 IP, and a 14-8 record en route to a second-place finish for the AL Cy Young Award.

The results did not meet expectations though, and Cease produced a subpar 4.58 ERA and 1.42 WHIP to go along with a 7-9 record. On the surface, it looks like some basic stats were little changed from year to year, with BB, K, and HR being fairly consistent between 2021 and 2023:

Looking closer, however, some numbers do start to stand out. Cease allowed 46 more hits in seven fewer innings in '23 than he did in '22. The increase in contact caused BAA and WHIP to spike, leading to the higher ERA.

Sifting through the data a bit more, it seems an increased usage in his fastball and a decreased usage in slider may have been partly to blame. When you see that both pitches were a full mph slower in '23, you can start to put the puzzle together as to what caused Cease's drop in effectiveness:

As seen above, his slider had above-average vertical movement in '22 but slightly below average in '23, and slightly below-average horizontal movement in '22 but quite a bit less than average in '23. All this paints a picture of a less effective pitch, and the jump from .128 opponent batting average to .216 solidifies the theory.

Despite the drop in velocity and increased BAA for all of his pitches, Cease was still able to average more than a K per IP in 2023, so expect him to strike batters out at a high rate again in 2024. Additionally, his peripheral stats, such as BABIP, xFIP, and SIERA, all pointed to a season that perhaps should have been better than the actual results.

So, with some offseason mechanical adjustments, will he return to Cy Young contender? More than likely not, but coming off the board as the 30th pitcher overall or even later (after names like Bobby Miller, Joe Ryan, Kyle Bradish, et al), he's sure to outproduce his ADP. Furthermore, if he lands in a more favorable environment than Chicago, say Atlanta, then he'll be able to rack up more W's for himself and managers that draft him.

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

Drafted by the Reds with the second overall pick in 2017, Hunter Greene is expected to be a workhorse in the front end of the rotation for years to come. The 6'5", 242-pound right-hander is built more like a tight end, but his powerful frame allows him to throw a fastball that had an average speed in 2023 of 98.3 mph, which puts him in the 97th percentile of all MLB pitchers. In 2022, Greene fared about as well as one would expect for an MLB rookie, but instead of progressing, his numbers took a bit of a step back in 2023:

Greene ended 2022 on a high note, compiling the following stats over his final six starts:

  • 35.1 IP, 22 H, 4 ER, 8 BB: 51 K, 1.01 ERA, 0.85 WHIP

He flashed similar dominance in 2023, but every time he started to go on a roll, he'd struggle mightily for a few starts before finally finding a groove again, only for the process to start over again:

He also missed two months with a hip injury, so some rust could explain the big spike in August. Without those two poor outings, his overall numbers actually would have looked more in line or slightly better than his 2022 season, with a 4.01 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.

Assuming good health in 2024, that is what should give managers hope. The elite K% is there (~22% league avg., Greene's is ~31%) and the elite K-BB% is there (~14% league avg., Greene's is ~21%). He pitches for a team that has a young, dynamic offense on an upswing, so he should be in a position to better his win total as well. Greene is being drafted around the 35th pitcher off the board, but could easily return value there.

Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles

With 2023 being his first season in the majors, it might be a bit harsh to say it was a season to forget, but being the top pitching prospect in the O's organization and in all of baseball coming into the year, expectations were high for Grayson Rodriguez.

His first three starts of the season had mixed results, throwing a total of 14.1 innings, allowing 11 ER (6.91 ERA) but striking out 19 batters while walking seven. The next two starts were impressive, albeit against a toothless Detroit lineup, allowing seven hits and zero earned runs over 10 IP with a 4:15 BB:K. The ERA dropped to 4.07 and it seemed he was off to the races, but that's when the wheels began to fall off.

After his third brutal start in five May games, Rodriguez was sent down to Triple-A. Thankfully, after seven starts in the minors, he was able to get back to form and the Orioles recalled him in mid-July. The rest of the season was pretty sensational:

It was pretty sensational, that is, right up until it abruptly ended with a thud on October 8. In Game 2 of the ALDS against the Texas Rangers, Rodriguez lasted just 1.2 innings before being relieved, but not before the damage was done. He allowed five ER on six H, four BB, and two K, dropping the O's into a 2-0 hole in the best-of-five series. After pitching so well in the second half, that is obviously not how Grayson and the O's wanted the season to end. So, all things considered, you could say it was a season to forget.

Looking at his current ADP of around 21st pitcher overall, he seems fairly priced; however, a pitcher with his pedigree and environment could certainly outperform expectations on his way to returning positive ROI to fantasy managers.

 

Relief Pitcher Who Will Bounce Back in 2024

Edwin Diaz, New York Mets

Unfortunately, it was an injury Edwin Diaz sustained that made his 2023 season forgettable, as the season was over before it even started. Having happened in March during the World Baseball Classic while celebrating a win made it that much harder to swallow.

As there wasn't a 2023 to look back on, we'll take a look at his 2021 and 2022 seasons:

Just look at that 2022 season. Those are some outstanding stats, especially the highlighted ones. Lingering effects of the injury may give managers pause in early 2024 drafts, and if so, managers should scoop him up at the earliest (reasonable) opportunity. Even if his 2024 numbers land somewhere in between his last two seasons, Diaz will provide plenty of save opportunities, plus low ERA, WHIP, AVG, and OBP, along with high Ks. Draft with confidence.

 

Honorable Mentions

Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox

Sale finished strong in 2023, seeing him give up one run or fewer in four of five September starts. His BB:K was 8:29 in those five starts. He's battled injuries the last few seasons and he's not getting any younger (34), but a healthy Sale can provide plenty of fantasy production.

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers

The Tigers selected Mize #1 overall in 2018 and he had a pretty good 2021 season in the bigs, but made just two starts in 2022 before needing Tommy John surgery. It'll be nearly two years removed from the surgery so he should be ready to go in 2024. Keep him on your radar.

Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers

As with Mize, Buehler is recovering from TJ surgery but was close to returning in 2023, so he too should be ready to go in 2024. Buehler has twice been an All-Star and came in fourth in NL Cy Young voting in 2021.

Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays

Manoah was an All-Star and finished third in AL Cy Young voting in 2022, but a tumultuous 2023 saw him demoted, only to be brought back up and demoted again late in the season. If he can return to form, he could be a value pick in drafts.

Others to keep an eye on:

Keep tabs on these players, as all have provided valuable fantasy seasons in the past and have the tools to do so again in 2024: Lucas Giolito, Free Agent; Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees; Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins; Jack Flaherty, Free Agent.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Year In Review




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Marcelo Mayer16 mins ago

With Two More Multi-Hit Performances Wednesday
New Orleans Saints19 mins ago

Saints Won't Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Trevor Penning
Nick Chubb25 mins ago

Not Interested In Retirement
George Pickens31 mins ago

Drawing Trade Interest
Rashee Rice36 mins ago

Taking Part In Offseason Program
46 mins ago

Concerns About Tetairoa McMillan's Lack Of Effort
Jahan Dotson54 mins ago

Eagles Decline Fifth-Year Option On Jahan Dotson
MLB1 hour ago

Rockies-Royals Rained Out On Wednesday
Zach Eflin1 hour ago

To Throw A Side Session Later This Week
Justin Martinez1 hour ago

"All Indications" Justin Martinez Will Be Available On Wednesday
Zack Wheeler2 hours ago

Records Nine Strikeouts
Jared Jones2 hours ago

To Undergo MRI This Week
Luis Rengifo2 hours ago

Returns On Wednesday
Chandler Simpson2 hours ago

Sitting Out Versus Lefty
Joc Pederson2 hours ago

Taking A Seat Versus Southpaw
Leody Taveras2 hours ago

Sitting Out On Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski3 hours ago

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis3 hours ago

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Corey Seager3 hours ago

Goes On 10-Day Injured List With Hamstring Strain
Michael Porter Jr.3 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Minnesota Vikings4 hours ago

Vikings Waive NaJee Thompson, Trevor Reid
Adam Svensson4 hours ago

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Jonathan Aranda4 hours ago

Sitting Against Southpaw
Jake Fromm4 hours ago

Lions Release Jake Fromm
Logan O'Hoppe4 hours ago

Out Against Pirates
Seattle Seahawks4 hours ago

Cameron Young Let Go By Seattle
Detroit Lions4 hours ago

Detroit Makes Kerby Joseph The Highest-Paid Safety In League History
Davion Mitchell4 hours ago

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Seiya Suzuki5 hours ago

Scratched On Wednesday With Wrist Soreness
Brandin Podziemski5 hours ago

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford5 hours ago

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.5 hours ago

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum5 hours ago

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart5 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Thursday
NYI5 hours ago

Cal Clutterbuck Announces Retirement
Pavel Zacha6 hours ago

Recovering From Small Procedure
Will Smith6 hours ago

Out With Sore Wrist On Wednesday
Connor Wong6 hours ago

Likely To Go On Rehab Assignment This Weekend
Nikolaj Ehlers6 hours ago

To Miss At Least Two More Games
Lucas Giolito6 hours ago

Could Make Season Debut Next Thursday
Miro Heiskanen6 hours ago

Still Out On Wednesday
Blake Snell6 hours ago

To Be Shut Down From Throwing, Might Go For More Imaging
John Klingberg6 hours ago

Enters Oilers Lineup For Game 2
Grayson Rodriguez6 hours ago

Has Mild Lat Strain, To Resume Throwing In A Couple Weeks
Evander Kane6 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Wednesday Night
Edwin Díaz6 hours ago

Edwin Diaz Leaves With Left-Hip Cramping On Wednesday
Gabriel Landeskog6 hours ago

Likely To Play In Game 3
Cam Smith6 hours ago

Absent From Astros Lineup
Denver Broncos8 hours ago

Broncos Not Expected To Trade Up In Round 1
Houston Texans8 hours ago

Texans Trying To Move Up In Round 1 Of NFL Draft
Atlanta Falcons8 hours ago

James Pearce Jr., Mike Green Potential Top Targets For Falcons
Dallas Cowboys8 hours ago

Cowboys Could Add Wide Receiver Help With No. 12 Pick
New Orleans Saints8 hours ago

Saints Likely To Address Defense With No. 9 Pick?
8 hours ago

Rams Eyeing Trade Up For Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland?
Patrick Mahomes8 hours ago

Itching To Get Explosive Passing Game Back
Chris Olave10 hours ago

Saints Picking Up Chris Olave's Fifth-Year Option
Derek Carr10 hours ago

Saints Hope To Have Clarity On Derek Carr Soon
10 hours ago

Chiefs Talk With TreVeyon Henderson
Los Angeles Rams10 hours ago

Rams Not Ruling Out Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Jaren Jackson Jr.14 hours ago

Posts Team-High 26 Points In Tuesday's Loss
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander14 hours ago

Notches 27 Points Despite Poor Shooting
Max Greyserman14 hours ago

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Pascal Siakam14 hours ago

Scores Team-High 24 Points In Game 2 Win
Giannis Antetokounmpo14 hours ago

Posts Big Double-Double In Game 2 Loss
Lee Hodges14 hours ago

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA14 hours ago

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Julius Randle14 hours ago

Leads Timberwolves In Scoring In Game 2
Gary Woodland14 hours ago

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Luka Dončić14 hours ago

Luka Doncic Nets 31 Points In Lakers Win
Max McGreevy14 hours ago

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard14 hours ago

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Jock Landale14 hours ago

Unavailable For Game 2
Sam Stevens14 hours ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Jae'Sean Tate15 hours ago

Remains Out Wednesday
Nicolai Hojgaard15 hours ago

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
John Tavares15 hours ago

Collects Two Points In Overtime Win
Christiaan Bezuidenhout15 hours ago

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Frederik Andersen15 hours ago

Posts 40th Postseason Win
Akshay Bhatia15 hours ago

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young15 hours ago

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Kirill Kaprizov15 hours ago

Leads Wild To Valuable Road Win
Matthew Tkachuk15 hours ago

Returns With Three-Point Performance
Erik Van Rooyen15 hours ago

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Anthony Cirelli15 hours ago

Suffers Undisclosed Injury Tuesday
Gabriel Vilardi15 hours ago

May Return To Jets Lineup Thursday
John Klingberg15 hours ago

Ready To Return To Action
Evander Kane15 hours ago

Could Be An Option For Game 2
Andrew Novak1 day ago

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore1 day ago

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa1 day ago

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry1 day ago

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
Terry Rozier1 day ago

Ruled Out For Wednesday
Damian Lillard1 day ago

Will Have His Minutes Monitored Tuesday
Jayson Tatum1 day ago

Listed As Doubtful For Game 2
Derek Forbort1 day ago

Recovering From Surgery
Martin Fehérváry1 day ago

Martin Fehervary To Miss Postseason Following Knee Surgery
Luke Glendening1 day ago

Available For Start Of Playoffs
Mitchell Chaffee1 day ago

Available Tuesday
Cody Glass1 day ago

Good To Go Tuesday
Brenden Dillon1 day ago

Won't Play In Game 2
Damian Lillard1 day ago

Cleared To Play Tuesday
Nikola Jokić2 days ago

Nikola Jokic Posts 19th Postseason Triple-Double
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF