5 Hitters Who Will Rebound for 2024 Fantasy Baseball: A Year To Forget

Which hitters will rebound in 2024? How much will it increase their fantasy baseball value? Joey Pollizze dives in and identifies five hitters who disappointed in 2023 but will rebound in 2024.

The fantasy baseball season is quickly approaching, and now is the time to start researching for your league. The MLB regular season will officially kick off on March 20 with the Dodgers and Padres heading to Seoul, South Korea. Those two teams will play a two-game series overseas.

However, the rest of the MLB season won't start until Thursday, March 28. So, make sure to get those drafts in before that March 20 date because some big-time players will be playing in those games.

Speaking of big-time players, several All-Stars and former All-Stars didn't have the best year at the plate in 2023 -- for various reasons. This article will look at five hitters who struggled at the plate last year but will rebound in 2024 to help your fantasy baseball team. So, let's dive in and see which players make the list.

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Bounce-Back Hitter Candidates

There are several hitters in the majors that should be bounce-back candidates at the plate in 2024. But I am going to target five that I think make the most sense. These are also players that you should target throughout your fantasy baseball drafts this season.

Some of these candidates will be players who are going in the first two rounds, while others will be sleepers that you might want to target later in your drafts. Either way, though, these hitters will be much better at the plate in 2024, and you shouldn't be afraid to draft them because of an underwhelming 2023 season.

Jose Abreu, Houston Astros

Houston Astros first baseman Jose Abreu spent his first nine years with the Chicago White Sox. During that time, he was selected to three All-Star games, won Rookie of the Year in 2014, and won MVP during the shortened 2020 season. Things did not go according to plan for Abreu in his first year with the Astros.

He finished the year with a .237 batting average (the worst of his career) with 18 home runs, 90 RBI, and 23 doubles (the lowest of his career in a full season). While his power days are likely past him as he enters the later years of his career, Abreu should be in store for a better year at the plate in 2024. He has always been a reliable hitter over his career, and it was apparent that his move to Houston took an adjustment period.

Abreu was unplayable in fantasy in the first two months of the 2023 season but really came on in the second half. His 17 HRs and 64 RBI in the last 81 games put him on pace for 34 HRs and 128 RBI on the year. The veteran likely won't hit those big numbers in 2024, but he can be a great value later in your drafts.

He has shown that he still has some power left in the tank and has hit over .280 in seven of his 10 MLB seasons. On top of that, Abreu plays for an Astros team that has a top-five offense, meaning there will likely be more opportunities for him to drive in runs in 2024.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. did not have the type of season that everyone envisioned going in. After finishing as the American League MVP runner-up in 2021 and hitting a combined 80 HRs between 2021 and 2022, Guerrero took a step back at the plate in 2023.

The first baseman did make his third straight All-Star appearance, but his numbers at the plate were underwhelming, especially if you took him in the first round of your fantasy drafts. Guerrero hit .264 on the year (his worst in a full season) with 26 HRs, 94 RBI, and a slugging of just .444. Those numbers were way down from the last two years, especially in 2021 -- where he hit 48 HRs and 111 RBI.

However, the metrics behind Guerrero's 2023 season aren't much different from the prior two seasons. His expected batting average on Baseball Savant was .295, which landed him in the top 4% of all Major League Baseball players. The Blue Jays first baseman was also still hitting the ball hard with an average exit velocity of 92.1, which was in the top 9%, and his expected slugging was at .498. That was 54 points higher than his slugging of .444.

In 2023, Guerrero was still doing everything he did at the plate in 2022. He hit the ball hard, made contact at a high rate, and played over 155 games for the third straight season. The three-time All-Star might have gotten a little unlucky at the plate last year, and that should even out in 2024.

Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies

Like Abreu, it took some time for Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Trea Turner to adjust to a new home. After being the consensus number-one overall pick in 2023 fantasy baseball drafts, Turner will likely drop out of the first round in 2024. The first half of his 2023 season is likely the reason for that after the shortstop did not play up to his standards at the plate.

Turner was coming into his first year with the Phillies after signing a massive 11-year, $300 million contract in the offseason. He was also coming into the year hitting over .295 at the plate in four straight seasons, dating back to his days playing with the Washington Nationals.

When the 2023 season began, Turner was not himself. By May 31, he was hitting just .236, and his numbers through 78 games were not the best either. He had just eight HRs and 29 RBI with a .246 BA and a .382 slugging. However, the two-time All-Star finally turned it around in the final 77 games of the season, improving in almost every statistical category in the second half. The 30-year-old finished the year with a .266 BA, 26 HRs, 76 RBI, and 35 doubles.

Now, with a full season in Philadelphia in the books, Turner should get back to his former self at the plate. He'll bat atop the Phillies lineup again, and with Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and J.T. Realmuto hitting behind him, the shortstop should exceed his 102 runs scored in 2023.

Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres welcomed back outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. after missing the entire 2022 season with a broken wrist and a suspension. That suspension also carried over in 2023, as Tatis missed the first 20 games of the year. Upon his return, though, many fantasy managers wondered what type of player he would be.

Tatis turned out to essentially be a player who showed some potential at times but also had his struggles at the plate -- which was expected. When the 2021 All-Star stepped onto the field on April 20, 2023, he was playing in his first MLB game in 564 days. Bumps along the way were going to happen, and that's exactly what occurred. 

Tatis still put together a solid season, though, where he hit .257, 25 HRs, 79 RBI, and 33 doubles with a slugging of .449. But, it was a down year from where he was before his injury and suspension. 

Tatis' numbers were way down from his 2021 season (as you can see from the chart). But there should be optimism that the Padres outfielder gets back to the type of hitter he was two years ago, especially with his power. The home runs were the biggest letdown in 2023. However, his hard-hit rate (49.3%) was still noticeably high as it ranked in the top 10% of the league, and his expected slugging was at .508 on Baseball Savant.

With the wrist injury and the suspension fully past him now, Tatis should be in a better spot to do more at the plate in 2024. His 2023 season seems like a solid floor for fantasy baseball, and of course, he has one of the highest ceilings. He has the power and speed to contribute first-round value this year. 

Carlos Correa, Minnesota Twins

The last hitter that will have a bounce-back season is Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa. Correa had the worst statistical year of his career in 2023 after hitting a career-low .230 at the plate. The two-time All-Star also put up career lows in OBP (.312) and double plays grounded into (30).

It was not a strong year for Correa, who dealt with a foot injury for most of the year. He played through a plantar fasciitis issue since May and then suffered a tear in his foot in September just before the playoffs. The Twins shortstop denies that the foot injury contributed to his poor year at the plate. It's evident that it was a big reason for his 2023 season.

Correa was a reliable fantasy option in 2022 and finished that year with a solid slash line of .291/.366/.467. Despite the disappointing 2023 season, the shortstop was still hitting the ball hard, which is a great sign for 2024. His 90.4 average exit velocity was his highest in a season since 2017 (90.5) when he had a .315 batting average.

The good news is that the 2023 season is past Correa, and he'll now be heading into 2024 fully healthy for the first time since April. That should help him get back on track, making him a solid option later in your fantasy drafts. He has shown he can hit for a nice average while contributing 20-25 HRs and 60-70 RBI at the plate.

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