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A Look Ahead: The Top 5 Free Agents of 2016 by WAR

Poet Alexander Pope once wrote "hope springs eternal," but had he ever gotten the chance to attend Spring Training he may have shuffled those words around and come out with something along the lines of "spring brings eternal hope." Spring Training is finally in full swing and with those familiar sounds of bat on ball and ball hitting mitt also comes a feeling of hope for all 30 big league teams. Cliches aside, everyone believes they have a chance at this point of the season. However, many teams probably don't have a great chance to make the postseason let alone contend for a title. Those teams, if they plan well, can be competitive sooner rather than later and the quickest way to revamp a roster is via free agency. Here is a look at the top 5 free agents to be available for the 2015-2016 offseason based on WAR accumulated over the past three seasons.

Players are listed with the following designation: Player Name (3 year WAR, 2014 WAR, 2015 Steamer WAR projection). As a reminder, WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is an all-inclusive statistic that attempts to quantify a player's on field contribution to his teams success.

 

1. Alex Gordon (16.8, 6.6, 4.4)

Gordon is a defensive stud which is where a large portion of his accumulated WAR comes from. The 31-year-old should be able to cash in on one more large contract, though he has publicly stated that he plans on picking up his 2016 player option with the Royals, potentially delaying that deal by another year. A repeat of 2014's 6.6 WAR season will all but guarantee a lucrative deal.

 

2. Jason Heyward (15.5, 6.3, 4.9)

Much like Gordon, Heyward is also a defensive stud who hasn't fulfilled his full potential at the plate. Heyward has had some injury issues in the past, but he's still only 25 years old meaning he will enter free agency at an unusually young age. Heyward could command the biggest contract of this entire group if he can find the power that led to 27 HR in 2012 and continues his stellar defense in the outfield.

 

3. Ben Zobrist (15.5, 5, 4.3)

Zobrist is annually undervalued even though he continues to post 5+ WAR year after year. Zobrist is only scheduled to make $7.5MM this season making him a perfect cost-effective fit for his new team, the Oakland Athletics. Zobrist likely won't be at the top of this list in future contract dollars because of his age, but another 5 WAR season will likely result in a nice pay day for the 33-year-old utility man.

 

4. David Price (14.3, 4.6, 4)

Price is only a few years removed from his Cy Young Award winning 2012 season and logged a workhorse-like 248.1 innings last season. Price will anchor the Tigers staff this season and the 29-year-old will be the same age as former Tigers ace Max Scherzer at the time of his free agency this past offseason. Price could challenge Scherzer's deal of $210MM if he can stay injury free in 2014.

 

5. Johnny Cueto (13.7, 6.4, 2.7)

Cueto's 2014 season was only outshined by Clayton Kershaw's otherworldly numbers. The 29-year-old will be looking to cash in big if he can put together a similar season in 2015. The pitching class will once again be strong, including the aforementioned David Price as well as Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister, Zack Greinke, and Jeff Samardzija, all of whom just missed this list.

 

Missing. Justin Upton (8.2, 3.3, 2.8)

Since Upton's monster 6.1 WAR in his age 23 season, the newly acquired San Diego Padres outfielder has struggled to duplicate those numbers. That being said, Upton is still only 27 years old, hasn't made any rash name changes, and possesses a skill set that is favorably looked upon by free agent suitors. Upton's talent will get him paid, but if he can put up a big year in 2015 he could end up topping this list in future contract dollars.

 

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